This didn't go in. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Michigan 53, Michigan State 59 Comment Count

Seth January 7th, 2023 at 6:10 PM

With under two minutes left Hunter Dickinson took the pass on the block, saw yet another double coming, and passed it out to an open Kobe Bufkin, who swung it to a wide open Terrance Williams II. Had Michigan made 5/16 threes (31%) at that point, Williams was taking a dagger. Had they made 4/16 (25%), they'd have been leading. If Michigan was 3/16 (19%) on their open three-pointers in that moment it'd have been a two-point game.

Unfortunately, of the soon-to-be 17 open triple attempts by Michigan in the game's first 38 minutes, only two had found the bottom of the net.

Shot luck was the story of a sinfully ugly basketball game at Breslin, which was especially ugly in the first half. Michigan was at least getting their looks from the start. Dickinson's first two opportunities on the block became a pair of open elbows from overplayed moves towards the rim. Jett also took two open pull-up threes after kickouts unbalanced the defense. In both cases the first went in and the second did not. MSU came out trying to push the pace at the start of drives, which got them an open pull-up three by Tyson Walker. AJ Hoggard also found Mady Sissoko alone under the basket when Dickinson came up to flash off a screen, but Sissoko traveled. The teams went into the first break 5-3. It was a preview of things to come.

Out of the break, both of Michigan's freshmen had rude introductions to the Breslin Effect. Dug McDaniel airballed his first (and only) three-point attempt, then he and MSU's Tyson Walker picked up Class A technicals from referee Paul Szelc when they traded barbs after shot clock violation, which sent Tom Izzo into a screaming fit. The outburst seemed to have its intended effect. Jett Howard was tagged with his first foul away from the ball on MSU's next possession. Walker was lucky not to get his second for shoving McDaniel to the floor. Dug was not so lucky as he got himself into trouble trying to drive baseline on Walker and picked up a questionable charging call while trying to avoid going out of bounds. A similar thing happened to Jett Howard, who got tripped coming around a screen (no call), got up angry, and ran over a set Spartan for his own second foul. Michigan went into the under-8 timeout with both freshmen benched with two fouls and the score knotted at 12.

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It's okay kid, everyone gets Szelced at least once in this league. [Campredon]

Without their last point guard, one of the best teams in the nation at avoiding turnovers suddenly began coughing up the ball. Joey Baker also missed three wide open triples, part of a 1/9 half for Michigan from outside the arc, none of them challenged. Michigan State used the opportunity to go on a 10-2 run, all of those points generated by Malik Hall off ball screens. With a minute left in the half the teams traded 1&1 opportunities off hand checks. Isaiah Barnes hit both of his then thunder-blocked Walker's drive with time running out.

The half could have ended there, but Jace Howard tried to check Hall away from the useless rebound opportunity that was rolling out of bounds. The foul was called, and Hall sank both free throws to give MSU a 27-18 lead going into the break.

Out of the half, Michigan State started getting junk to fall. Howard called timeout after MSU got a quick 5 points off a Hoggard pop three and a Joey Hauser open jumper off a screen. The plan out of the timeout was to get the ball to Dickinson down low, but whenever Dickinson passed out of a double the ensuing three would clang. That was if it was even attempted, as first Williams, then McDaniel, Bufkin and even Baker passed up open looks to drive into worse ones.

Dickinson also got switched onto Walker and taken to the basket. Walker's shot hit every molecule of the rim before rolling in, and MSU's lead stretched 13 at the Under 16 timeout.

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This didn't go in either. [Campredon]

It was also one of the last good looks the Spartans had all half, as Michigan's inspired defense kept them in a game their atrocious shooting should have precluded them from competing in. Once again Michigan had a good play coming out of a break, with Dickinson finding Jett for the Wolverines' second made three of the night. Tarris Reed entered after that, and quickly drew four fouls on MSU bigs, three of those on the floor while driving on Sissoko. Jett found a lane through multiple defenders to cut the lead to ten, but Hoggard, who finished 6/10 from the floor and 1/1 on 3PAs, pulled up for an answer. Michigan couldn't score on a pair of possessions extended by fouls and rebounds, and Hoggard picked up a weird bounce that his center Carson Cooper had bobbled away and put in another long two to push the Spartans' lead to 42-28.

But for the shooting (other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?), the next 10 minutes were some of Michigan's most inspired of the season. Drives through traffic by Kobe Bufkin and Will Tschetter(!) chopped the lead to ten on either side of an underhanded prayer between three defenders that fell for Walker. Then Cooper, on the court for Sissoko, found himself between a driving Hunter Dickinson and the basket, and flopped, drawing a technical. Dickinson scored, and after a TV timeout Bufkin made the technical free throw. Sissoko returned, quickly committed his 4th foul on offense, and Dickinson canned a 15-footer off a pick and roll to cut MSU's lead to 7 with six minutes remaining.

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Bufkin remains the season's most encouraging development. [Campredon]

Luck ran both ways for a few minutes. Tyson Walker took a stepback three that clanged short but then popped up and rolled in, and Kobe Bufkin's quick answering attempt rimmed out. But Tschetter dove for the rebound amidst several Spartan defenders, and clearly touched it last, but the officials awarded Michigan possession. MSU then left Tschetter open off a pick and roll, but his triple attempt missed as well.

Baskets at the rim by Dickinson and Bufkin trimmed the deficit to six and Izzo called timeout. Michigan got yet another stop, and Jett was fouled while driving, hitting both sides of a one-and-one. Four points.

MSU would answer, however, and Cooper fouled Dickinson on the other end. Dickinson made 1/2 to put it at 49-44 MSU.

One trip later, Dug McDaniel found Hunter Dickinson low, who drew a double, and found and open Bufkin who swung it to a more open Williams. If a Michigan jumper was ever going to go in, it had to be this one. It wasn't close.

Michigan State rebounded Williams's rushed attempt, and made all of their free throws in clock time, including two front ends in the bonus. Michigan finished 3/20 from the arc and 7/39 (18%) total on field goals away from the rim. Dickinson (a pick and roll three) and Bufkin (an uncontested dunk) scored late to keep the pressure on. Dickinson's final attempt found only air, Joey Baker fruitlessly fought for the rebound on the baseline, and Michigan State celebrated a 57-53 victory.

Except the officials wouldn't let them leave. After a lengthy review, they assessed Baker a foul and awarded MSU two superfluous free throws with 0.1 seconds remaining. Gamblers holding MSU-4.5 must have blown their gaskets as Jaden Akins made two free throws to push the final margin out to six.

Whatever you ascribe to shots falling, that was the game. Walker got a pair to prevent Michigan's big run from tying the score. Michigan got the more open looks and shot 19/55 from the floor. MSU's Joey Hauser (3/13) got a few good looks he missed as well. Normally troubled shooter AJ Hoggard couldn't miss on his pullups, and that was enough to overcome an encouragingly wide distance in play. That is, other than the actual making of shots, Mrs. Lincoln. You kinda have to make your shots.

[A box score and more photos after THE JUMP]

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Didn't go. [Campredon]

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Missed. [Campredon]

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[Campredon]

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I feel you Tom.

Comments

gustave ferbert

January 7th, 2023 at 6:34 PM ^

The coaching is woefully mediocre.  

12 seconds left in the game and down by two possessions.  The center should not be shooting an airball three.  

We're trending toward Patrick Ewing 2.0  

Hail to the Vi…

January 7th, 2023 at 7:01 PM ^

I think schematically, the coaching is actually pretty good. The offense manufactured a lot of open looks today, we just don't have enough consistent shooters right now to knock them down. That piece to some degree is on Juwan and his staff when it comes to roster construction, but the coaches' job is to generate open looks, the players' job is to make the shots. We simply did not come close to making enough shots to win against a solid team. A six point loss when shoot 18% away from the rim suggests other areas of the game were actually played pretty well. 

Gustavo Fring

January 7th, 2023 at 7:21 PM ^

I think people largely forget just how much in the wilderness Michigan was for two and a half seasons after Stauskas and GRIII left.  It took Walton three and a half seasons to really reach his peak.  Chatman and Donnal weren’t hits.  
The fact is turnover matters.  Youth matters.  
T-Will feels like the equivalent of Chatman in this analogy.  Dug is in the Walton stage where the talent is there but it hasn’t come together.  
Are there things Juwan could do differently?  Absolutely.  I would have closed with Tschetter over T-Will and would give Barnes a longer look too.  But Moritz Wagner barely seeing minutes until he was Michigan‘s best player in the last game of the season was also a miss from Beilein.  
What’s encouraging is seeing Bufkin and Reed show signs of being a core.  Dug was awful today but has been solid for a freshman PG and first time at Breslin is tough for anyone.  
But I think a lot of the criticism of Juwan Howard is a result of very convenient amnesia.  

bronxblue

January 7th, 2023 at 7:02 PM ^

I didn't realize Patrick Ewing had taken the Hoyas to three straight Sweet 16s and had won the conference title.  You'd think Georgetown would have been happier with that performance.

Anyway, Dickinson is probably the second or third best outside shooter on the team (admittedly on low volume) and has just hit a 3.  Yeah it didn't go in but other than Jett nobody could hit a damn thing all game.  Unless you're talking about some other center.

Anyway, I know the party line around here now is that Howard is a dead man walking who should be fired but is really ask fans to look back at Beilein's forrays into EL and remember how weird some of those games went.

JMK

January 7th, 2023 at 6:35 PM ^

Shooting is broken. The rim on Michigan’s side in the first half was particularly noisy - BRICK!!!! At least Cissoko was comically bad at times to keep it somewhat entertaining. 

bronxblue

January 7th, 2023 at 6:53 PM ^

This seemingly happens every year, where UM plays a weird game at MSU, typically loses, and then comes back and wins at home.  Feels like much the same will happen this year, especially if UM keeps improving defensively.  These were open shots that just didn't fall and MSU shot about their season average from outside.  As noted in the writeup if UM shoots even 30% from outside they win.  

Ah well, keep this play up against Iowa and see if the can keep up the vibes until Purdue.

Gustavo Fring

January 7th, 2023 at 7:03 PM ^

Kobe shouldn’t be passing up open 3’s for anyone besides Jett or Joey anyway.  Should have taken that shot.  But he had one halfway down rim out earlier so he didn’t want to shoot a 3 again.

Kobe can really shoot.  Great FT shooter, great hs three point shooter, great form.  But he doesn’t get the volume up he should (especially given teams have to respect the drive) because the confidence in his jumper doesn’t quite match his talent there.

but yeah don’t pass up a good look from 3 to give the same look to a worse shooter 

Kilgore Trout

January 7th, 2023 at 7:17 PM ^

This seems overly optimistic to me. Shot luck is real, but I don't think it's as random as the mgocrew in general makes it out to be. Michigan's offense is not smooth and doesn't seem to put its best players in position to make plays. It's rough. 

ERdocLSA2004

January 7th, 2023 at 7:46 PM ^

It is hard to quantify what you’re saying but there is some truth to it probably.  I’m honestly surprised HD isn’t getting more heat for his play.  Sissoko sissucks.  HD should’ve been able to get him in foul trouble but he plays soft. He’s great when the D doesn’t body him up and when he perceives an advantage but if you play him hard and don’t let him catch the ball on the block, he crumbles.  This is a game he should’ve feasted.  He talks a lot of trash but isn’t really someone you want going into battle with you because quite frankly, he lacks toughness.  

Gustavo Fring

January 7th, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^

Juwan Howard can’t make open 3’s for Michigan.  Few better end of possession outcomes than wide open looks for Joey Baker or Kobe Bufkin.

That said, in terms of legitimate coaching criticism (which often applied to Beilein):

- Auto bench hurt Michigan.  I get it after Juwan left Jett in earlier this season and he picked up third and fourth fouls quickly, but Jace and Terrance together was really tough to overcome on offense.  Jett finished with two fouls.  
 

- Terrance Williams shouldn’t have closed this game and his spot should be up for competition.  Tschetter looks way more comfortable on offense and the team played better with him out there tonight.  Maybe he shouldn’t start but he should have closed tonight.

On T-Will, it’s tough to see what he’s giving the team right now.  He’s a solid rebounder but hasn’t been consistent.  Below average shooter right now.  His drives look clunky.  
You might say “well he does stuff that doesn’t show up in the box score” but I don’t even think that’s true.  A play that sticks in my mind: Hall posted him up and then took a fadeaway.  T-Will didn’t really contest but fine, it’s a tough shot.  It missed, and then T-Will just stood there as an MSU guard came from the 3-point line and grabbed the rebound under his nose.

if you’re a glue guy, aren’t those the plays you’re supposed to make?  
 

The larger truth is Michigan has three really good players and not much else.  Dug has the excuse of youth and flashes real difference making ability.  But T-Will is a junior and if he’s not giving you enough there, it’s time to start giving Tschetter and Barnes a longer look.

other than that, I think the “he doesn’t run a creative offense” critiques wreak of people who don’t actually know what they’re seeing on the floor and I’m encouraged by the effort Michigan has shown for now 3 games on D and on the glass (though they were fortunate Hauser missed some really good looks).  

93Grad

January 8th, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^

T-Will epitomizes the problem with this team.  On a good Power 5 team he is not a starting caliber player.  We also should not have to start a freshman Dug, but this is where we are.  Replace those 2 players in the starting lineup with 2 quality players and this team is likely another Sweet 16 level team.   A mix of bad attrition and some odd roster construction likely doomed this team from the start.  

Gustavo Fring

January 7th, 2023 at 7:36 PM ^

Also this was by far Jett’s best defensive game of the season, both as a team defender and on ball and that is encouraging.  
Enjoy him while he’s here.  Reality is as soon as you say “6’8” shooter with NBA bloodlines” the first round is a floor.  With this defense the question isn’t lottery it’s whether he goes top 8.  

Ham

January 7th, 2023 at 7:51 PM ^

It was weird watching the team sleepwalk to 28 points in the game’s first 32 minutes (and only 10 points in the first 12 minutes of the 2nd half) just to see them flip a switch and score 25 points in the next 8 minutes. It’s not like their shots randomly started to fall (they only made 1 three in this stretch). They just started playing with a lot more intensity. They were driving and cutting more to the hoop and they were moving the ball up the court faster in transition. Why they couldn’t have played with even half that energy in the first 3/4th of the game, I’ll never know.

ERdocLSA2004

January 7th, 2023 at 7:56 PM ^

I’m not as optimistic about this loss as some.  It’s not like MSU shot it well either, 3 made 3PA vs 6?  Big deal.  Before we had to foul, we only had 6 fouls, MSU had 11.  This wasn’t one of those games at Breslin where there was a ton of homecourt cooking.  HD made it to the line once.  He missed easy shots and spent most of the night passing it back out.  Why?  Sissoko is terrible.  HD should’ve easily drawn fouls on him.  That guy fouls out routinely.  HD thinks he was born on 3rd.  Reed drew more fouls and played with way more toughness.

mgeoffriau

January 7th, 2023 at 11:02 PM ^

Don't have much of anything to add regarding this particular game result, but I will say my excitement over Tarris Reed is growing. His bambi-on-ice freshman moments are still there, but they are increasingly infrequent, and his footwork and handle for a dude his size are impressive. He might be a force by next season.

Flying Dutchman

January 8th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^

Terrance Williams is bad.  I can’t believe he is a Big Ten starter.  Damn I wish we had Houstan or Diabate for that spot.  If Williams is jacking up the crucial 3 with 2 minutes left, this is an NIT squad.  

Buckeye_Impaler8124

January 8th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^

With under 5 minutes left JH had Hunter on the fucking bench with 0 fouls. Imagine what Beilein could do with a Howard roster. Not saying he has to go, but don’t want his growing pains to be while being the coach of a premier program.

shoes

January 8th, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^

Shot luck? I'm beginning to feel that our good shooting games represent the outliers this season and that as a group, this is not a good shooting team.

dahblue

January 8th, 2023 at 12:59 PM ^

I think a small child, in Okemos, was injured when that last TWill 3-point attempt flew out of Breslin and across town before hitting the child in the nose. Medical reports indicate the injury was limited to a broken nose, though medical professionals cautioned against TWill doing anything on a basketball court other than rebounding. 

HollywoodHokeHogan

January 8th, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^

Having a point guard that cannot shoot is like having a quarterback that cannot run in college football.  In the same way that having a 5 that can shoot opens the floor, having 1 that can’t closes things off.  We saw the same thing early last season when Jones was in a shooting slump and couldn’t make anything from distance.
 

JB made it work with Simpson, but he was a great defender which offset some of the inefficiency.  Simpson eventually developed some moves to finish around the basket, improved as a shooter, and got a great grasp of the offense. Maybe Dug does all that too, but right now it’s hard to watch.  And he’s not a great defender