[Patrick Barron]

Michigan 24, Penn State 15 Comment Count

Alex.Drain November 11th, 2023 at 6:00 PM

After a long week of legal drama, including the hours leading up to the game, Michigan did indeed play football on Saturday afternoon in State College, Pennsylvania. Jim Harbaugh was unable to make it to the stadium and take his place on the sideline due to a delayed judicial decision (litigation on the TRO will continue this week), but his Michigan football team took the field under the direction of interim head coach Sherrone Moore. They got locked in a nasty battle with the Nittany Lions that featured 1970s levels of passing but that couldn't stop the undefeated Wolverines. JJ McCarthy attempted only eight passes (officially). 30 of the final 31 playcalls were rushing plays. It did not matter. Michigan took the lead in the second quarter and never relinquished it, gobbling time of possession and holding Penn State to 238 yards of offense. To 10-0 the Wolverines go. 

Michigan took the football first to begin the game, PSU winning the toss and deferring to the second half. They picked up a first down but a false start by Karsen Barnhart set the drive behind the sticks and Michigan's pass protection was quickly exposed as a problem spot. McCarthy was sacked on 3rd down and Michigan punted. Their defense responded with a quick stop, a run stuff on first down followed by a pair of blitzes that provoked quick incompletions from Penn State QB Drew Allar. Penn State punted it back and it seemed that a defensive duel was already in the cards. 

The feeling of defensive dominance continued on Michigan's second offensive possession. Blake Corum was quickly stopped on the first play, fumbling the ball but Michigan recovered. A pass to Colston Loveland got Michigan into 3rd & 3 but pressure got home quickly again, with McCarthy throwing as he was being sacked, a dangerous incompletion. Michigan booted it back to PSU, but on the play P Tommy Doman appeared to be run into. A flag was thrown and either degree of offense would've given the first down/ The referees opted to pick up the flag, arguing that the Penn State player was pushed into Doman (replay footage strongly disagreed). 

 

[Patrick Barron]

Penn State's second offensive series was the first for either team to get some momentum. Drew Allar connected on a pass to TE Tyler Warren matched up against Makari Paige for a 19 yard gain, which got PSU going and then the run game began to click. RB Nick Singleton began to gash Michigan for five and six yards a pop between the tackles, PSU's OL winning matchups against Rayshaun Benny and Cam Goode. Along the way, Will Johnson was flagged for a DPI and Drew Allar scrambled for 11 after Goode blew a chance at a sack. Singleton rumbled down inside the five and before long, Penn State had 1st & G from the Michigan 3, which is when the clamps went on. Kaytron Allen's 1st down carry was stopped by Michael Barrett (among others), Drew Allar was forced to throw it away in the face of good coverage, and then a 3rd & G fade attempt for Dante Cephas was broken up by Will Johnson. Penn State opted to take the points and Alex Felkins converted a 20 yard FG attempt. 3-0 

Nearing the end of the first quarter, Michigan badly needed an answer to get the offense going. They would get it. They picked up a first down on a quick pass to Cornelius Johnson but again found themselves in a 3rd & long only a few plays later. On 3rd & 10, Michigan pulled a frontside guard into space and had JJ McCarthy run behind him, weaving his way for 13 and a crucial first down. That began Michigan's ability to find some room on the ground and use Penn State's aggressiveness in teeing off against the run against them. Donovan Edwards initially missed the hole but then found it for a 22 yard gain, marching Michigan deep into PSU territory. A few plays later, on 3rd & 8, Michigan stared down an all-out PSU blitz and checked in to the perfect play-call to defeat it, a screen to Semaj Morgan, who had green grass to run behind blockers inside the five. Blake Corum punched it in from three yards out and Michigan led 7-3. 

Michigan needed the football version of a "shutdown inning" to consolidate their lead and the defense delivered, producing a three-and-out despite surrendering a nine yard run to Kaytron Allen on 1st down. Rod Moore blew up a screen to Malick Meiga for a TFL and a Drew Allar QB keeper on 3rd & 2 was bottled up. Only a half-yard from the first down, James Franklin opted to punt, given that it was so deep in his own territory. Michigan had the football with the lead. 

[Patrick Barron]

The Wolverine offense started the same way as the previous drive, a quick pass to get an easy money first down to Cornelius Johnson before a big rushing play. This time it was a 44 yard run for Blake Corum, breaking it to the perimeter and running down the left sideline all the way to the Penn State 21. Penn State's over-aggressiveness wasn't done hurting them, because Michigan checked into a run on 3rd & 11 from the 22, this time Donovan Edwards weaving outside as the Nittany Lion defense ran by him into the backfield, cutting it into the end zone inside the pylon. 14-3. 

There were just over six minutes remaining in the first half at this point and it felt like another stop and points for Michigan before halftime could be a knockout punch. Instead, it was the PSU offense continuing to assert itself and doing so with two crucial 4th down conversions. The game got going on a 34 yard run by Kaytron Allen, a brutal missed tackle by Paige allowing it to get free before the burly DT Kenneth Grant somehow ran Allen down in space.

After that run, PSU began to move much more slowly, facing two 4th down situations, one being 4th & 6 from the 37 and the other 4th & 1 from the 15. The first was picked up on a completion to Kaden Saunders against Mike Sainristil and the second on a clever throwback play, with the RB Allen tossing it to the QB Allar. Right after picking the second one up, a Drew Allar QB draw against a light Michigan box took Penn State into the end zone for the first time. Penn State went for two to make it a three point game but pressure on Drew Allar got home and forced a throwaway. 14-9. The touchdown was scored with 29 seconds left in the half and Michigan opted to run out the clock and head to halftime. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More recap]

 

[Patrick Barron]

The touchdown score so late in the half had the effect of getting Penn State a two-for-one, narrowing the lead to one-score and immediately getting it back to begin the second half. Michigan's defense had their backs against the wall and they would get a bit of luck. Drew Allar picked up a 3rd & 5 on a scramble after Michigan curiously went with a three-man rush and they had picked up a 3rd & 2 when Allar put the ball on the ground, a devastating fumble forced by the fist of Rayshaun Benny and recovered by a Johnny-on-the-spot Makari Paige. Michigan took over at midfield. 

The drive following the fumble was a sneak preview into Michigan's offensive approach for the entire second half. They ran 12 offensive plays and did not attempt a single pass, one passing play called was scrambled by JJ McCarthy for a first down on 4th & 1 from the 29. Otherwise it was run after run after run. Blake Corum ran it six times, McCarthy three times (one being the scramble), and Edwards three times. Michigan's commitment to the run drove them deep into PSU territory but their refusal to throw the ball reached a strange level when the Wolverines loaded up with 7 OL and two TEs on 2nd & G from the 12, only to slam into the line for a small gain. They ran it on 3rd & G from the 10 and punted, showing a flair for conservatism in the process. 17-9. 

The effect of running the ball that much was the clock had suddenly dwindled dramatically. Michigan had built an eight point lead and there were only a few minutes left in the third quarter, Penn State about to begin just their second drive of the half. The Nittany Lions converted third down on a pass to Tyler Warren but the 3rd & 8 swing pass to KeAndre Lambert-Smith gained just six. Faced with 4th & 2 from his own 46, Franklin took a timeout to think it over but chose to punt. In theory, the decision paid off, as Michigan was pinned and deep and ended up having to punt. In the long run, it was only so useful, since Michigan's punt back the other way erased all field position advantages when a holding call was enforced on Penn State. The conclusion was PSU getting the ball back at their own 28 with another few minutes having been run off the clock. 

[Patrick Barron]

That drive didn't go so well. PSU tried to dial up a flea flicker on 2nd Down, but Allar had no one open and fired to no one in particular to avoid a sack, which drew an intentional grounding. The 3rd & long pass sailed way out of bounds and Penn State went three-and-out. Michigan's next drive would feature their only pass attempt of the second half, a throw for AJ Barner (McCarthy missed a wide open Loveland) that drew a defensive pass interference call, rendering that attempt invisible in the final box score. The penalty got Michigan out near midfield but the drive ran out of steam, a McCarthy keeper going for a loss, a false start moving Michigan back and then a pair of runs amounting to waving the white flag. Doman drilled a punt and pinned PSU deep, with more and more clock slipping away. Just over eight minutes to go. 

By this point Penn State's offense was firmly stuck in the mud. Kaytron Allen was stuffed by Josaiah Stewart, Allar's pass was incomplete under pressure, and then a 3rd & 9 checkdown pass to Dante Cephas was quickly tackled for no gain by Paige. Another three-and-out. Michigan opted to continue the rockfight, running it three more times, one of which being a brilliant run by Blake Corum to grind out eight, but Corum was bottled up by Abdul Carter on 3rd & 2. Another punt. 

PSU took the football on their own 26 with just 4:53 to go in the game. Nick Singleton gained four yards to start the drive before Allar's 2nd Down throw was not close. On 3rd & 6, Allar had an open Saunders but left left the ball behind him and it was dropped. Franklin then chose to make the oddest decision of the game, going for it on 4th & 6 from his own 30, with two timeouts in hand and over four minutes to go in the game, against an opposing offense refusing to throw the ball. It seemed like unnecessarily aggressive and Michigan made him pay, blitzing Allar hard and again provoking a harmless incompletion as Allar crumbled under pressure. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

Michigan took over well inside PSU territory and Blake Corum delivered what amounted to a knockout blow, hopping by a defensive lineman vacating his gap unnecessarily out of aggression. Corum ran it down the left sideline and into the end zone, giving Michigan a 24-9, two TD edge with only four minutes to go. Penn State then engaged on a score effects drive, with Michigan focused on keeping everything in front of them.

It wasn't as clean as it could've been, Michigan being hit with two personal foul calls, one being a bad luck flag on Michael Barrett for taking his helmet off to celebrate when he thought Michigan's Quinten Johnson had intercepted Allar (it was ruled incomplete) while the other was an obvious hands-to-the-face on Cam Goode. Michigan's assistance allowed PSU to drive down the field faster than desired, but the Maize & Blue slammed the door on the two-point conversion after a TD was scored with 1:59 to go: Franklin dialed up a swinging gate sort of play that went horribly wrong, easily PBU'd by Will Johnson. The score held at two-scores as a result, 24-15. The onside kick was recovered by Mike Sainristil, Michigan ran it twice to burn PSU's remaining TOs, and then a third run, Blake Corum gaining nine on 3rd & 5, was the finishing blow. 

The odd nature of this game is such that Michigan beat a top 10 team on the road with what felt like maybe Michigan's C+ showing. Whether it was terror over the PSU pass rush or a political statement over SignGate to win purely through running, Michigan's offensive approach did win the game against an elite defense, but it felt staggeringly conservative. McCarthy was 7/8 on pass attempts + a DPI and a scramble for a first down. Yes there were a couple sacks but overall, plays where Michigan called a passing play were productive for the offense and the decision to call only a dozen or so was curious (the lack of play-action was perhaps even more confusing). 

 

[Patrick Barron]

The run game was rather unproductive on a down-to-down basis but it cashed in enough explosives to win the game. The Wolverine rush offense had five plays that gained 10+ yards, admittedly not a ton, but those five went for 131 yards and two touchdowns. There were some similarities between this offensive plan and the manner win which Michigan broke Ohio State's defense at the end of last year's edition of The Game. Blake Corum was excellent, save for the fumble (which he got bailed out on), while Donovan Edwards had two strong runs in a game for perhaps the first time all season. 

Defensively, the rush defense was less effective than anticipated/hoped but the pass defense was so dominant that it ultimately didn't matter. Drew Allar went 10/22 for 70 yards (3.2 Y/A!!), nothing dangerous, nothing deep at all. PSU's longest passing gain was 19 yards and in comparison to Michigan's rushing offense, Penn State's was less explosive: they also had five rushes of 10+ yards, but gained only 77 yards on those runs. Michigan played lighter in the box against the run earlier in the game than made sense (also using a shockingly high amount of DT rotation for a game as big as this one), but ultimately it's hard to argue with the results when the result is 163 yards on 3.3 YPP and 9 points pre-score effects (even the full-game total, 238 at 4.1 YPP and 15 points ain't shabby). 

Michigan has now defeated Penn State three consecutive seasons and James Franklin has fallen to 3-7 against the Wolverines in his career as PSU head coach. The Wolverines are 10-0 for the second consecutive season (and the second time in the Jim Harbaugh era), on a collision course for another 11-0 vs. 11-0 matchup with Ohio State. There's one more week before The Game, a meeting with 6-4 Maryland in College Park as Michigan Football is in search of it's 1,000th win. Michigan is a hefty favorite in that game, which is scheduled for noon EST and will be broadcast on Fox. 

Comments

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

November 11th, 2023 at 6:13 PM ^

This'll probably be hashed out ad nauseum especially on the Penn State side, but the 2PC at the end of the game was silly.  I get the argument that you try to give yourself as much information as possible.  I just disagree with it.  You don't really have any less information if you kick and end up 8 down.  You know exactly what you need to do.  You know the game is going to hinge on the later 2PC attempt, and it's better to have one super-high-leverage play than many.

Frames-ass decision, you ask me.

lou apo

November 11th, 2023 at 9:58 PM ^

Yup, kind of like a gambling addict after an early loss who keeps chasing that loss with more bad decisions.  The stats say that a 2pt attempt is worth something like .5 points based on something like a 1/4 success rate (I'm sure someone can look up the exact number), so unless you know that you must have it, it is not a good move.  And you never know you must have it in the first half.  Hell, you can't really know you must have it until the second half of the 4th qtr.  There are just so many ways points can be scored by both teams that you just can't predict that you need it, so why give up 1/2 point on the attempt?

lou apo

November 11th, 2023 at 10:05 PM ^

The deal is you need two TD's with at least one 2pt conversion (and one PAT).  So go for it the first time or the second from a math point is all the same.  Unless it is your intent to go for the win by trying to make 2pt both times.  But to me, since the odds of making the 2pt conversion are not very good, I would take the PAT on the first one, just to keep things exciting.  If you miss it on the first time, the rest of the game is kind of anticlimactic since it is damn near impossible to make 2 onside kicks and 2 scores (at least one of which must be a TD) in 2 minutes.  Everyone knows that including the losing team and things just sort of look desperate.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

November 12th, 2023 at 12:33 AM ^

You do have to get it once, yes.  Analytics says you should go for it early, but analytics doesn't take into account psychology.  And the decision tree looks like this:

- Go for 2, make it: you need onside kick, and if you get it, the defense must stop you from scoring the TD.

- Kick, make it: you need onside kick, and if you get it, the defense must stop you from scoring the TD or stop you from scoring the next 2PC.

- Go for 2, miss it: you need onside kick, and even if you get it the defense will happily bleed clock.

The defense will play the same if you score 2 or score 1.  But if you screw up, the defense can play much more on their terms.

To me the reason not to do it early is to turn a 2-score game into a 1-score game.  Yes, you still need the 2PC.  The fact that it doesn't matter whether you get it early or late, to me, that means take it late, because you cannot win a 2-score game, but you might win a 1-score game.

M Ascending

November 12th, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^

Dissgree. The 2nd 2pt attempt was also wrong. If you make it, you're down by 7-- a 1 score game.  If you kick for 1 pt. it's still a 1 score game ( down by 8) and all the pressure is on Michigan's offense to get a first down and ice the game. But, by missing the 2 -- game over. No way they could get 2 scores with the time left.  Ali the pressure was off.  There are times to go for 2 but that was not one of them. And neither was the first one,  which was one of the most curious by Frames over the course of this rivalry. 

Doctor Wolverine

November 11th, 2023 at 10:40 PM ^

The reason you do it on the first TD, is so that if you don’t get it (which they didn’t), you know now that you need another TD plus a FG. That obviously would have required a miracle (quick stop, quick score, onside kick, FG), but at least you know so you can shift your strategy accordingly. If you do get the 2pt conversion, and manage to get the ball back, then you are trying to score that second TD with as little time on the clock as possible (so the other team can’t respond). Obviously none of that mattered because Michigan ran out the clock and PSU never got another shot at it. 

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

November 12th, 2023 at 12:36 AM ^

But you also know your strategy if you kick the XP.  It's not like it becomes a mystery if you're down 8.  What it does is, assuming you score another touchdown, is force the game to hinge on the one play.  And you get to call that play.

To me, it's simple.  Do you want to play offense down two scores, or one?  You have the chance to be down one score.  Take it.

gbdub

November 12th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^

Down 15 and score, you have 2 options:

1) Go for 2. If you miss, you know you need 2 more possessions, and can manage the clock accordingly - a long shot, but a second chance. If you make it, you’re down a true “one score” and can manage the clock so you get one last possession, where you now have a choice - you can kick an XP to tie, or go for 2 again to play for the win in regulation. 
 

2) Kick the XP. You’re down by 8, which is “one score” but only if you make a 50/50 2 point play. So if you manage the clock to score a TD at the end of the game, now you’re in a situation where you’re playing not to lose - you either make the 2 point play and then you’re in OT, or you lose. No second chance. And the upside is you’re facing the coin flip of OT. 
 

Going for two early gives you more options if you miss, and if you make it, it gives you the option to play for the win in regulation (which is often better than risking OT on the road). Strictly better. 

ChopBlock

November 11th, 2023 at 7:21 PM ^

But when you're down 8, you're NOT necessarily down only one posession. You essentially have a 50% chance of being down 1 score, and a 50% chance of being down 2 scores. So you don't know whether you have time to run a 4 minute offense, a 2 minute offense, or just heave it deep and hope. Hence you go for 2 as soon as possible.

gbdub

November 11th, 2023 at 10:29 PM ^

In this specific case it was probably irrelevant because there was not enough time on the clock for two more possessions. 
 

But the point is that down by 15 is a “2.5 possession” situation. The optimal strategy if you need a TD and a field goal is different than the optimal strategy if you just need a TD, so you want to find out ASAP so you can play the right strategy. 

J. Redux

November 12th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^

It’s really sad to me that so many people on this blog, of all places, can’t understand game theory.

It’s not just that you’re wrong, it’s that Brian has explained repeatedly both in his podcast and in his writing why you’re wrong.

If you can make the 2PC, you may as well make it early.  And if you were going to miss the 2PC, you’d rather know that sooner rather than later so that you can play the rest of the game that way.

2PCs have about a 40% success rate.  You shouldn’t just assume, “oh, I’m down 8, I just need a touchdown.”

stephenrjking

November 11th, 2023 at 6:17 PM ^

An amazing effort from an amazing team. 

Inevitably we will look at some of the things that didn't go as smoothly as they have against the weaker opposition earlier in the season. The OL questions became not-so-positive OL answers against an elite pass rush, in the most hostile environment Michigan will see this season. 

And it is unquestionable that the Big Ten's abominable decision to suspend Harbaugh fewer than 24 hours before the end of the game impacted the team. The OL coach, who is also the OC, now had to be the head coach of the whole team. The sideline reporter documented at least one instance where he was busy with coordinator duties and had to be reminded to put on his headset; he was not able to spend as much time as he needed to work with the OL and the offense to address Penn State's excellent pass rush and protect his quarterback. 

One might even question if that could potentially endanger Michigan's players.

The adjustment, instead, was to pound the ball. I was alarmed in early possessions where Penn State, much like last year, played with two high safeties, but was able to stifle Michigan's rushing attack in a very non-last-year-fashion.

But Michigan made the adjustments and the guys made the blocks. Given the context, given PSU's superb D, given being on the road, given that the head coach was barred from even being on the grounds: it was magnificent. Hard-fought, yard by yard. Blow after blow. And the game situation, with Penn State's unimpressive offense and Michigan's excellent defense (apparently able to be good even without the benefit of sign scouting) rendering the threat of giving up touchdowns miniscule. 

The on-field stuff was great. But taken in the larger context, it was a singular effort in the annals of Michigan football. A game where every outside circumstance (deliberately) conspired to put the team in as bad a situation as possible.

We've seen strong teams wilt before under such pressure. But those teams were not this team.

This is the best Michigan team of my lifetime. Great players. A great head coach, and a great coaching staff. And a great team in the most feelingsball sense of the word. They love each other. They love to play. What a joy to watch them.

The world is against them. The conference. The gutless rival schools who think they can decapitate our program because they can't beat them on the field. The NCAA. 

No matter. They're angry now.

You won't like them when they're angry.