Michigan's the South 11, Will Face Colorado State
The tourney field has been announced and Michigan came in as an 11-seed (no play-in) in the bracket with the toughest 3-seed.
They draw David Roddy, #9 on Ken Pomeroy's player of the year list, and football's next opponent Colorado State, who are #31 on Kenpom (Michigan is 33), and #41 on Torvik, as their 6th seed, first round opponent. The Rams are mid-major version of last year's Ohio State, getting most of their offense from a pullup-loving point and a wing-shaped big. Roddy is their Liddell. He even moonlights at center, since their sonly 6'10" guy is a non-entity on offense. CSU trounced Saint Mary's earlier in the year but their next best wins are a 1-point victory over San Diego State at home and an OT win at Boise State. They had a couple of losses to UNLV, the other team that bounces between wins and losses every other game as much as Michigan, and were probably the last 6-seed.
If Michigan's every-other pattern holds that puts them in Round 2 with Tennessee, a 3-seed ranked higher than all but one of the two seeds. The Vols beat Arizona and UNC in the non-con and lost to Nova and Texas Tech, then went 14-4 in a brutal SEC and won their conference tourney. Their one loss since the end of January was a foul fest in Arkansas when the Vols shot 4/24 from three, and 3rd string C Jonas Aidoo played as many minutes as Uros Plavsic.
A second weekend could see Villanova (2-seed), Ohio State (the 7), Loyola-Chicago or Delaware. Arizona, Illinois, and poor under-seeded Houston (#4 on Kenpom) are on the other side of the bracket.
In other things of interest, Rutgers and Notre Dame will have a play-in game for the West's 11 seed. There is no content after the jump because I have to go jump on a podcast.
Finally my CSU undergrad education is paying off for my sports watching interests. We play my beloved Rammies first game in the tournament and first game of the year in football in Ann Arbor in Sept.
Don't sleep on my boys from Ft Collins. The MWC will never be confused for the B1G but CSU probably had their best year ever and are led by MWC player of the year D. Roddy who is capable of playing every position, 1-5. They're extremely efficient on offense and FT%.
I've stockpiled my MGoPoints for just such an occasion and the sports gods have given it to me!
So commence my well-deserved negbang. I'll take my Rams but will be happy either way.
Blau to you - but no neg-bang!
Butt those Rammies back to Ft. Collins!
GO BLUE!
Remarkably favorable first round matchup and location considering our 17 win season
Comparing won-loss records is apples and oranges. That's why we have metrics like the NET (where Michigan was 34th) and Kenpom (33rd).
March 13th, 2022 at 10:12 PM ^
Yeah, we take daily kicks in the face from BIG refs, but the guys/gals running the sport know UM = eyeballs. So we get a very generous bracket placement
Indiana probably has more basketball fans than we do, but got a lower seed.
We got a bye because by all of the predictive metrics, we're a pretty good team that's played a brutal schedule.
i wonder if juwan will give more of Houstan's minutes to TWill to guard Roddy. i would.
Diabate would get the crack at guarding Roddy. Diabate has the size and athleticism to keep Roddy in check. Houstan would have to work harder to keep his big body off from him. Roddy can really shoot so as long as Michigan can bother his 3 pt shooting, they have a great shot of beating CSU. It's a very winnable matchup for Michigan but Michigan is inconsistent that it's hard to tell. They have the talent to get into the S16.
i agree. was thinking 25 min of diabate on roddy with 15 from TWill. or shift min to whoever is doing the best job.
Coach is willing to give TWILL 15 minutes? With ever dangerous Johns available? Also Houstan is going to need 30 minutes to reach 8 points.
Sorry I just think Bufkin and TWILL should be playing more with two guys that have really problems scoring (Houstan you know by half time).
He should give 10 min of Hunter's to Twill. Run the small ball lineup for 15 min and give Hunter enough rest and make sure he doesn't have to do his usual matador defense in the second half because he's scared of fouling/tired.
I like that idea.
Michigan is in the field. Survive and advance
Indiana got hosed.
That is all.
They got in which is fine. Michigan's resume is stronger in every single point over Indiana. They have a better B1G record, 1 more Q1 win, better NET, RPI, ELO and KenPom than Indiana.
March 13th, 2022 at 10:36 PM ^
Exactly! And their pre-conference strength of schedule was laughable.
Nah. A week ago, no one had Indiana in the field. Going 2-1 in the BTT was enough to move them up like seven spots on the S-curve. They would have gotten a bye, but Va Tech and Richmond stole bids and that bumped them down to the play-in.
The team that got jobbed was Iowa. They deserved better than a 5 seed.
Yeah, but they got Providence as the four seed and they're terrible for a four seed. They're 49th (!!!!!) in kenpom. The worst four seed of all time no doubt.
Kansas is a very underwhelming 1 seed as well.
They got a really good draw.
Isn't Providence coached by Wardes plan B, Cooley ? If so, appears he's doing well over there.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:22 PM ^
Yes, and he's an ok coach, but I would have been very disappointed settling for him.
He has Providence regularly a top 50ish team but that's about it. They were 80th and missed the tournament last year.
Their quality is closer to that team than of a 4 seed this year but they were extremely lucky this year. In fact, they are ranked as kenpom's #1 luckiest team this year (which is the difference between a teams actual record and their expected record / pythagorean wins based on scoring margin).
March 13th, 2022 at 11:40 PM ^
Cooley has been at Providence for 11 years and hasn't gotten out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. They had a solid season this year but the advanced metrics all generally have them pegged as a 10-11 seed and I'd be surprised if they won 2 games in this tournament.
They got jobbed but they got gifted with a favorable draw IMO.
You must be spending a lot of time on Reddit. Everyone is up in arms about Michigan over Indiana and Rutgers (really Michigan in general, it’s funny). It may be a toss up, but Michigan’s metrics are better and Michigan still won at Indiana by 18 before the conference tourney collapse in which was more Michigan’s doing than Indiana’s imo
Don't go on r/CollegeBasketball rn. It's March so it's getting brigaded by the rest of Reddit who are a bunch of casuals who don't understand SoS, advanced metrics, or anything about college basketball
Even when it's not being brigaded, it's rife with simple-minded people speaking with total confidence about which they understand little.
March 14th, 2022 at 10:15 AM ^
r/CollegeBasketball historically hasn't been bad, but has been vile as late after the Juwan situation
March 13th, 2022 at 11:36 PM ^
It's not unlike the college football subreddit, which becomes virtually unbearable come bowl season when every guy who roots for Georgia Southern suddenly believes he's got deep thoughts about how good every Big 10 and Pac-12 team is.
This also applies to any MSU fan online, including I believe an MSU beat writer who claimed that because UCLA beat both MSU and UM both schools had the same NCAA tourney. Just galaxy brain stuff.
Hoping the team is ready as coach Howard stated in the presser. Good draw and if we can get on a run, we can advance and make some noise
LFG.
Survive and advance and shock the world this team has a lot of talent. It can flame out or it can be a tough out and a team nobody wants to face. I just hope if it does get a lead or if it does get punched in the mouth it does not wilt and rises to the moment.
I thought I saw Wisconsin was the highest 3rd seed?
No matter, I had a non-sensical dream last night what we drew a play-in game against Dayton in Dayton. Now we have a no play-in game in Indy against the lowest 6th seed...awesome. @ 17-13 I'll take it!
Thanks Seth.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:27 PM ^
Wisconsin were the committees highest ranked 3 seed. Tennessee is kenpom's highest rated 3 seed, which is what we go by around here (or Torvik if otherwise stated, but we use the predictive metrics).
Good matchup in a good location. M should win this one; forget the seeding. M beat many of the teams seeded ahead of it, and lost to some of them. Forget about the "next one" for now. M couldn't have asked for more, given the past month.
No matter how well they do, it gives Juwan more time to play with his lineups for next year. And maybe they'll ride another wave for a few rounds. Go Blue!
Roddy scares me because he's a matchup nightmare, but Dickinson inside could beat handful for CSU. They aren't good defensively and don't turn you over so if UM can hold onto the ball there are shots to be had. UT is scary and it would be a big upset if UM won that game. But will deal with that if they get there.
March 13th, 2022 at 10:43 PM ^
Reality is the 2 3 seeds we could have seen would have been Texas tech or Tennessee and I feel they are both tough outs. Purdue and wisco would not have been rematches so soon. Sure, Duke is a weak 2 but coach K was never going to fall to 3 seed and their late season issues against unc and vt notwithstanding, we would need one of our best efforts to beat them just like we will Tennessee. We haven’t put together 2 straight games in ages so we will see.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:02 PM ^
Yeah, the 3 seeds this year feel better than the 2 seeds, honestly. Duke and Auburn seem to be trending downward a bit and while UK looks solid Villanova feels like a beneficiary of a mediocre Big East conference being overrated (Providence is the most overrated 4 seed I could imagine in the tournament - they're closer to a play-in team than a S16 seed IMO).
March 13th, 2022 at 11:29 PM ^
We effectively got a 10 seed because CSU should have been a 7 seed (at best) and Tennessee should have been a 2 seed.
We also got a very favorable geographic location. Indy is more or less a home game in the first round and at least a neutral site for playing Tennessee, if we make it.
12:15 tip
What is the standard style for referring to pull-up jumpers? Pull-ups? Pullups? Pull Ups? I ask because Seth wrote that the CSU offense has a "pullup loving point guard" and I definitely thought it was some sort of metajoke about that PG wearing diapers. Not that there's anything wrong with that!
Midrange
Midrange is a location on the court. A pull-up is a type of shot, off the dribble, that can be taken from anywhere. You can shoot a pull-up 3.
I vote for writing it with a hyphen (pull-up).
Interesting that Oklahoma, which plays in a league with 2 number 1 seeds, and which defeated one of those 1 seeds, got left out of the NCAA’s.
They got hosed. They should have been in over ND. Half a dozen teams in fact, had an argument over ND. I think that the committee largely discounts conference tournament results, either good or bad though.
March 13th, 2022 at 10:59 PM ^
There big problem is they went 7-11 in that conference and their one big non-conference win was against Arkansas when they were scuttling (after losing to Oklahoma they proceeded to go 1-4 with their only win being against Elon). The fact Oklahoma was even in contention for a tourney spot was because they beat Baylor and Texas Tech 1 out of 3 chances each and the Big 12 was such a good conference this year. Otherwise we're talking about a team that had 2 4-game losing streaks and 1 3-game losing streak since the beginning of the year.
They're a prime example of a rising tide lifting all boats in my opinion.
Dickinson should hopefully have a field day and Houstan and Jones usually play well against these types of teams. Curious how we choose to defend Roddy, but I feel pretty good about this game. Not so much against Tennessee
The SEC high-fliers not named Kentucky are prime candidates for big "upsets" every year. They can run and jump and stick their elbows in the rim better than anyone else-they just don't know how to actually play the game. Slow them down-make them think...and win the game.
Go Blue! Ram 'em.
I’ve noticed UM gets a lot of hate in BB and FB. Some is attributed to UM being a powerful brand (similar to how people hate the knicks, cowboys, Yankees, ND etc.) Some is attributed to our coaches (Some Fans and media love to hate Harbaugh and Howard). I believe Coach Harbaugh said people love to hate Michigan and hate to love Michigan. Some is attributed to jealousy and envy and I love that UM irritates rival fans and some in the media so much. It makes it that much sweeter as a UM fan especially when we win something of significance or get the benefit of the doubt on a selection.
March 13th, 2022 at 10:46 PM ^
After being decidedly on the bubble, we got paired with a team we are favored (narrowly) against at essentially a home location (Indy) at noon EST (10 am CSU time) in a 6-11 game. I have no complaints.
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