MGoPodcast 15.19: Casula, Mammula, and Don Shula Comment Count

BlueBarron February 12th, 2024 at 7:00 AM

1 hour and 44 minutes

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1. Coaches and Vibes

Starts at 1:00

Some of us would like to continue basking in the glory of the national championship and some (Brian) acknowledge that we must move on and start looking into the next season. There have already been some coaching changes since the last podcast. Wink Martindale's defense isn't that different from the Ravens defense (and it is not the Don Brown defense). Defensive line will still be elite, the big question is depth. Michigan's got too many safeties and not enough corners, move some? It's looking like Greg Scruggs, the Wisconsin defensive line coach, will be coming over. Linebackers coach positions is fuzzy. A lot of Michigan's offensive philosophy was probably coming from Sherrone Moore and Kirk Campbell so having that continuity is huge. Sherrone is helping tremendously at keep the team and culture together. 

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

2. 2024 Offense Part 1

Starts at 28:41

Who is the quarterback and what is the philosophy of this offense? Between Kalel Mullings, Donovan Edwards, Semaj Morgan, Colston Loveland, Max Bredeson, and Tyler Morris, there's a lot coming back to play with. How do you pass the ball with Alex Orji at quarterback and what is the run/pass split? If not Alex Orji at quarterback, then who? Even though they turn over the entire offensive line, the backups are upper classmen so it might be a Wisconsin situation where it's just the next line up. 

3. Hot Takes and 2024 Offense Part 2

Starts at 47:58

Takes hotter than Keisei Tominaga (and that's the only mention of basketball on this podcast). If you want continuity with the offense, do you make Kalel Mullings RB1? How much should Donovan Edwards motion out as a receiver? What are the alternatives at QB if you go with Alex Orji and it doesn't work out? Jayden Denegal is probably the floor and he's Wilton Speight. Making a case for why the offensive line will be good again, ideally Andrew Gentry is the left tackle. Tyler Morris will be a good WR2 (behind whoever they motion out between Donovan Edwards or Colston Loveland). 

4. Hockey vs Michigan State

Starts at 1:29:51

Michigan has a sad hockey weekend and gets swept by Michigan State, losing the Iron D. These teams played fairly evenly but Michigan State has a goalie that can bail them out and Michigan doesn't. Michigan needs to be able to out-score their mistakes but they can't right now. Michigan basketball exists, goodbye! 
 

MUSIC:

  • “Olivia”— Wolves of Glendale
  • “Flamingos - CARRTOONS"
  • “City Slicker”—  Ginger Root
  • “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:

 

"They're NIMBY'ing the alleys where people throw up after going to Rick's"

Comments

Beaublue

February 12th, 2024 at 8:27 AM ^

I'm assuming that calling Denegal a Wilton Speight is meant to be an insult?  Other than they both are tall how do we know that they are comparable?   It seems to me that Orgi played more just to be a runner a couple of times of day, but was he really ahead of Denegal on the depth chart?   Did Orgi complete a pass all year? 

Watching From Afar

February 12th, 2024 at 8:50 AM ^

Here's his recruiting profile from Seth that compares him to Speight: https://mgoblog.com/content/2022-recruiting-jayden-denegal

Both were ~450 in the recruiting rankings. Tall, not the most athletic (Speight was derpy and Denegal had bad weight), and both kind of have a weird hitch in their throwing motion.

As for Orji, I don't think he's thrown a pass during a live game in college.

PopeLando

February 12th, 2024 at 9:30 AM ^

Wilton Speight was on a very upward trajectory until his injury.

He also had 1) the best deep ball we’ve seen at Michigan in the Harbaugh era, by a mile, maybe the best since Chad Henne or Navarre (yes, better than JJ McCarthy), and 2) a magical ability to evade the first pass rusher, despite being of, ummm, *limited* athleticism 

QBs can be broken. God knows we all learned that lesson in 2017. But Speight had a chance to be amazing before he got injured and was never the same player again.

meeashagin

February 12th, 2024 at 1:41 PM ^

JJ not throwing the deep ball was a schematic decision. There's plenty of teams that refuse to throw it now because its almost always a wasted down.

If you have a QB that can complete underneath passes at an incredible rate with an elite running games its almost as if you could have one of the most efficient offense in college football.

 

Let's not forget Michigan tackles pass pro was as bad as it gets. 73 vs Washington got beat immediately on almost every pass play.

PopeLando

February 12th, 2024 at 5:09 PM ^

I think there’s a bit of chicken-egg in that argument. Absolutely agree that it was a schematic choice and that a QB who can hit the underneath stuff with 100% accuracy will lead a super-efficient offense. What made JJ so good is that he could hit the medium-distance passes with uncanny precision as well.

But. There were many occasions over the last 2+ years where a deep ball was drawn up and JJ missed it. Harbaugh and co. were able to scheme up open receivers for TDs several times…and JJ missed them. So we stopped trying, because, like you said, wasted down when you could get 8-15 yards instead.

Speight, in 2016 pre-injury, was dropping passes into the shirt pockets of his receivers downfield.

I was in awe of Washington during their two playoff/title game: all their pass plays were SUPER quick-developing (to keep Penix alive lol) and Penix was able to make very quick decisions. Kalen DeBoer is a scary good coach. I guess I’m saying that you don’t need NFL talent at all 5 OL positions to throw a 25 yard pass. Just at Michigan apparently.

tl;dr - I agree with you, but we’re on opposite sides of cause vs effect

Blau

February 12th, 2024 at 11:55 AM ^

Also, if Morris is WR2, who is WR1 and why?

If you say S. Morgan, we’re gonna have a bad time because although he has done a hell of a great job in his Steve Breaston impersonation, there’s a few other WRs I’d like to see him model his pass-catching game after before he’s announced as the top WR.

If anyone is WR1, it has to Loveland just based on film. 

Watching From Afar

February 12th, 2024 at 1:38 PM ^

WR is a massive blinking yellow light. The entire passing game is really when you account for how the team is built right now and how it generally operates. Run first, fine, but when that run game isn't bashing team's into the center of the earth things get hairy real quick from a straight drop back perspective.

There are issues at every level of the passing game to varying degrees, but it spans volume, scheme, talent, and execution.

Volume wise, they just don't throw the ball enough to attract the WR (and to a degree QB) talent that could elevate the passing game.

Scheme wise they have issues getting guys open consistently. There are stretches where they can run Morgan on a deep post that's open for a TD against Bama or run Wilson on some motion to get him a quick 6 yard out. But you also have to look at the Washington game where guys were blanketed on a 3rd down (I think) where every WR was completely covered and every guy basically ran a 6 yard route (curl, pivot, and out). Maryland in 2022 running basically 4 verts into Cover 8 like 3 times giving JJ nothing to throw to. Guys got pressed off the field entirely or zones would cause confusion.

Talent again, not great, however Wilson and CJ tore up the Senior Bowl to a degree so it's odd that they could get completely wiped out of a game rather often. They also don't really develop talent all that well. Wilson got better over the years but CJ didn't. Clemons had the physical tools but never turned into anything. Anthony we all remember. Bell probably hit his ceiling given his size and physical traits, but still. They also kind of struggled with pass pro from time to time. Barnhart was a turnstile against good DEs. Henderson struggled this year for stretches as well. Before him they had Jones who just had mental lapses in '22 before his injury. Hayes was pretty good, but not great.

Execution sprinkles in across all of this. CJ puts a DB in a blender and JJ rips it 4 feet over his head. Guys end up 3 yards apart from one another or right in the passing lane (the 3rd down before the Corum conversion against Bama). Just weird stuff that doesn't look right.

Also, does anyone remember the last time they ran a straight go route? Like a Nico Collins, fuck you I'm going to catch this ball, 50/50 ball? think it was Edwards this year in the OOC schedule, but other than that I remember Baldwin against Wisconsin in '21? Maybe 1 or 2 after that. This kind of plays into the volume and scheme thing, but they haven't figured out how to use Edwards consistently in 3 years (injuries played a part in that) and while Loveland is really good, they also just don't spam the "throw him the ball button" when he gets LBs who can't keep up with him.

WFNY_DP

February 12th, 2024 at 2:01 PM ^

I think the biggest issue is that a fair amount of the offense this past season was predicated on the fact that McCarthy could run a bit, both in terms of escaping pressure and in being a running threat out of the backfield to make defenses spend a guy in the box on him (or two guys, we see you 2022 OSU). With a Speight-like player, that threat is non-existent.

willirwin1778

February 12th, 2024 at 8:50 AM ^

Regarding blitzing, if I read the charts Seth put up correctly, the annual blitz variability in the Martindale defense was significant enough to indicate that his blitz frequency is variable year to year and could change again moving forward.  

enlightenedbum

February 12th, 2024 at 9:10 AM ^

Orji related item of interest:

He, Ben Hall, and Cristian Dixon were guest judges at Pioneer's Future Stars singing competition Saturday night (great show if you're an AA resident, our high school kids are crazy talented).  Corum guest judged it last year.  Anyway, the three of them had music takes that weren't quite on the level of the School of Music professor or Tony Award winner Gavin Creel, but pretty sophisticated to my ear.

Also Orji is a giant Adele fan.

Watching From Afar

February 12th, 2024 at 1:44 PM ^

Yeah the spring portal is worrying. If Martindale comes in and doesn't quite gel with the culture and personalities, that could be a slight problem. The new DL coach sounds like he'll work out well at least insofar as culture fit goes. Really important they hit on the DB coach because Saab, Berry, and some of the younger DBs have options.

LB I think they're ok with Hausmann and Barham already transferring once.

AC1997

February 12th, 2024 at 10:29 AM ^

I absolutely do not understand the optimism around Alex Orji as a starting QB next year.  His entire 2-year career he has 21 rushes for 5.9ypc.  He's dropped back to pass TWICE, one of which he failed to throw away and took a sack and the other was for 5 yards.  While I do think his old-school Tebow running style is an effective changeup, I just can't see how we're going to hand the keys to him in 2024.  I'm shocked that Brian is so in love with this idea. 

  • Can he even throw? 
  • Can he read a defense? 
  • Is his running really that dynamic that we want to do it as the base offense?  This isn't Denard being the fastest QB ever, this is a few glimpses of Orji being "pretty good" at grinding out a handful of yards.
  • What happens if he gets dinged up and we've built the offense around a mooseback QB? 
  • Do we really trust an offensive staff that couldn't activate reads and RPOs to train Orji? 
  • Do we really want the offensive staff that outcoached Saban changing to an old RichRod/Urban playbook?  
  • Do we really think that an old-school RichRod/Urban offense even works as well in 2024 as it did in 2004?  

 

Now granted....I'm not sure what other good options are out there.  Davis Warren and Jaden Denegal are not inspiring and I'm not interested in handing the keys to an undersized true freshman.  So I think portal after the spring is the only option I'd advocate for and then use Orji as the change of pace.  I'm SHOCKED that this is an idea.

MichiganiaMan

February 12th, 2024 at 11:54 AM ^

I think there’s optimism, in large part, because there’s been no visual confirmation that it’s a bad idea. Until proven otherwise, we’d like to believe that he has progressed into a viable Big Ten QB. And Campbell’s most recent comments about his footwork and mechanics were exactly the things an Orji-truther would want to hear.

Watching From Afar

February 12th, 2024 at 1:48 PM ^

here’s been no visual confirmation that it’s a bad idea. 

We have more evidence to be pessimistic than optimistic.

He wasn't the actual back up last year. Tuttle was.

He has never thrown a pass in a college game.

He wasn't a great QB in HS. He was an awesome athlete playing QB like Denard but he was barely over 50% completions in high school.

Unless he is absolutely tearing it up in practice, it's far more reasonable to be worried than hopeful.

jmblue

February 12th, 2024 at 12:09 PM ^

What happens if he gets dinged up and we've built the offense around a mooseback QB?

This is my worry.  Denard was knocked out of several games in 2010 and Tate Forcier had to come in off the bench.  Who would be our Plan B at QB if that happens to Orji?

kzoomgr

February 12th, 2024 at 1:04 PM ^

I realize there is a chance to pick up transfers after Spring, but we whiffed on virtually all the QB portal talent, during in large part to the glacial pace of Harbaugh getting to the Chargers offer.  You'd have thought, aside from ambiguous NIL potential, that M would be a great landing spot for at least one of the studs that transferred in the January period - coming off Championship, McCarthy very much leaning pro, no clear starter behind him, etc. So now we're stuck hoping for some fly-under-the-radar great #2 at some school to bounce after Spring practice?  Hope is not a strategy, as they say. We're all going to need to give Sherrone some grace for a few years to put things together. 

MgofanNC

February 12th, 2024 at 10:50 AM ^

Brian, I am very much in your Alex Orji excitement camp. Putting Edwards, Mullings in the back field and then splitting Edwards out should be our base. Lighten the box and beat them with power running from either Orji or Mullings. Short crossers from Edwards when he's drawn a LB should be easy reads and easy throws for Orji. 

Fingers crossed this goes as well as it does in my mind. 

olm_go_blue

February 12th, 2024 at 11:15 AM ^

An offense consisting of only short throws and power runs is very easy to defend against. Plus, if there is no threat of explosive plays, the offense has to dink and dunk its way down the field, which puts more pressure on the qb.

I can't think of any similar offense that's succeeded. If orji can connect consistently on deep balls (eg milroe), that's another story, but nobody seems to think that he can.

ShoelacesFlapp…

February 12th, 2024 at 12:19 PM ^

Elite teams have for a decade now used NFL passing games instead of College Crappe option offenses led by Tebow-type QBs. College defenses are too smart now to be confused consistently by the option game and if you fall behind with a run-first QB (as every team will eventually) you're cooked. Denegal or Davis have to be the QB if we have any shot at a playoff-caliber offense.

ca_prophet

February 13th, 2024 at 9:19 PM ^

Michigan will not have an NFL-passing game next year.  They have to replace the OL, QB, both WR, Corum, and TE2.

Michigan does return Brederson, Edwards, Mullings, and Hall, and adds Cabana and Marshal.

Given that, there's no way Michigan is going to install any sort of pass-first offense until they're absolutely sure they can't win with the running game and a passing offense as constraint (QBOhNoes, screens, RB flares, RPO's, TE leaks and so forth).

 

Ohiowild

February 12th, 2024 at 11:36 AM ^

Minter ran our D to prepare for OSU all season, even when other options would have been more dominant vs certain teams.  Will Wink still think this way?  Alot harder when the games change from Bowling Green and UNLV to Texas and Oregon...

 

Chip Kelly likes to go fast - prevent subbing, challenge defensive play calls

Does Wink have a plan for this?  We've gotten better but we used to really struggle with being prepared on D.