Mailbag: Pepcat Blah, Peters Challenge, Blueshirting, Western Existential Crisis Comment Count

Brian

Pepcat sadness.

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infrequent [Fuller]

Why did Peppers seem to disappoint on offense this season in the big games? Lack of creativity? Poor execution on his part, maybe from limited reps? OL play? Cosmic misfortune?

There are many reasons.

  • Defenses tended to absurdly over-focus on him when he entered the game. This resulted in a bunch of plays where his presence as a decoy created huge chunks for guys not named Peppers.
  • Michigan's read option package was basic. Teams started scrape exchanging against it and Michigan did not have a response to it. This resulted in a number of plays that looked like bad reads but were in fact RPS minuses. It probably would have been more effective to just single-wing, or use Peppers as a tailback.
  • He got some bad edge blocking from tight ends.
  • Cosmic misfortune always plays a role.

In retrospect the QB package should have been dumped midseason, probably after Illinois shut it down, and Michigan should have moved on to something else. They've been good at doing this so far under Harbaugh—fullback traps fell out of the offense this year—but not so here.

The Pepcat package featured something every high schooler is relentlessly drilled on these days: defending a crazy athlete QB. Michigan is not a spread option team. They are strictly dilettantes in that department. So you had a primitive attempt at spread option going up against the last ten years of defensive advancements against it. That is ceased working after a shock and awe period isn't a surprise.

Peters chatter, QB competition

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daddy needs a new Andrew Luck [Fuller]

Brian,

There never seemed to be much insider chatter floating around this year about how Peters was performing in practice. Obviously last year the big chatter was that, O'Korn was out performing Rudock. Question 1.)  Do we know anything about how he performed this fall in practice?

Secondly, I for one was pleasantly surprised with Speight's performance this year and I believe exceeded what many's expectations were for him.

That being said -

Question 2.) Do you anticipate any serious competition next year between a Redshirt Peters and Speight for the starting gig?

Go Blue,
Brewandbluesaturdays

After a productive spring, Peters chatter went to zero in fall camp. You shouldn't read anything into that, though. O'Korn got talked up last year because Rudock was so bad early and there was nobody else to talk about except Shane Morris, who was not a viable target for chatter after last year's Minnesota game.

Michigan had determined it was going to redshirt Peters, he got put on the scout team, and Speight played well enough that backup talk was restricted to a few off weeks. O'Korn's existence, meanwhile, kept what backup chatter existed focused on him until Indiana.

I do expect a serious QB competition this offseason. By "serious" I mean "there is at least a 20% chance someone not named Speight is the starting QB." Brandon Peters is extremely good and should eat up ground quickly since he was not one of those QB guru guys. Speight had a good sophomore season but remains someone else's QB that Harbaugh is making do with, and we saw him switch horses midstream in San Francisco. Speight's weak performance against Iowa and turnovers against OSU leave the door open for a challenger.

I'd be surprised if Peters passed Speight. I would not be shocked.

[After the JUMP: blueshirting, sartorial discussion, why do anything really I mean seriously]

Blueshirting is fine. It's got "blue" in it. QED.

Hi Brian,

In your latest recruiting round up you briefly described what a blue shirt is. Can you please explain this in more detail, especially if this is something UM is considering.

The consensus seemed to always be taking more than 25 recruits was dirty until you looked into the whole back dating and informed the blog. That made the practice seem OK in my mind. If I know more details on blue shirting, maybe I'll feel better about that, but it has a similar dirty feel.

-mp2

I've never had a problem with teams recruiting a bunch of players as long as they have the room. Michigan has room.

They're in an unusual position because they had back to back years of 17 and 14 recruits as the Hoke era spluttered to a disastrous finish. That led to a big class last year, and there's still a ton of room this year since Michigan has lost a number of those guys. Peppers (probably), Canteen, Ferns, Pallante, and O'Neill are gone from the 2014 class; Brian Cole and Andrew David are already gone from 2015.

So Michigan's in a spot where they can legitimately add so many recruits that they outstrip the NCAA-mandated letter of intent count of 25. I'm still unclear on who counts and who doesn't but with Hawkins and Dytarious Johnson not making it in last year Michigan had 27 initial counters and backdated 7. (Ahmir Mitchell may or may not count but it doesn't really matter for our purposes.) Therefore they can backdate five guys this year and sign a total of 30.

Blueshirting is a way around the LOI cap. "Unrecruited" walk-ons can show up in fall camp and get a scholarship without being an "initial counter." In practice this means the recruit doesn't take an official and doesn't sign a LOI. I've been told that Michigan might not have to execute this maneuver for reasons I don't quite get because I'm not in NCAA compliance, but if they do there's nothing nefarious about it. Kid gets a scholarship immediately, as he was promised.

This is a very important sartorial discussion.

I’m wondering why no one has commented on Harbaugh’s pants at State. He upgraded to plain front last year – midway through the season. Though, he still did wear the pleats occasionally. It was reported that he was going to wear Jordan brand Khakis this year, and I’m curious whether what we saw was just that on Saturday. They had a very different cut … more like Jeans. For someone who doesn’t deviate from the norm, I thought it was pretty odd – and actually quite of an upgrade (to go with his retro glasses). Will this be the new look? Or did he forget his pants and send an assistant to go find anything that looked khaki.

gettyimages-619042534 

UM.is.my.home

I don't know why nobody has commented on Harbaugh's khakis. Seriously. This fanbase comments on everything else, several times in a row. You'd think a changeup like this would get at least one thread.

What's the point of Western?

Hey Brian,

I have been enjoying Western's perfect regular season this year and the MAC school taking its star turn in the national spotlight. (BTW, I can't help but wonder if Western's mascot has always looked as stoned as the one that appeared on College Gameday a few weeks ago?) Western never seriously entered into the College Football Playoff conversation, and I can understand the conventional wisdom behind that being the top MAC school would more than likely never be more than a middling contender in a Power 5 school. Fair enough. In that case why even bother considering the second-tier conferences for the CFP? Western did everything it could this season to win the national title but couldn't even come close to breaking through even against this year's highly imperfect field of CFP competition. So what's the point? Why bother having a 128-team FBS if roughly half of them have no shot of winning the national championship?

Keep up the good work,
Jon

It is possible for a team in the bottom half of D-I conferences to put themselves in the playoff conversation. They just have to beat Oklahoma. Western did not do this. They beat Northwestern and Illinois and then played a MAC schedule. An undefeated Houston with wins over Oklahoma and Louisville is at least in the conversation and maybe/probably in over Washington.

"What's the point?" is not the kind of question that got asked before there was a playoff. The point is to win the games that are put in front of you. The point of adding a G5 team to the New Year's Six is to forestall antitrust legislation. The point of having an 128 team FBS is... uh... ask Georgia State?

If you're asking me why an Appalachian State would rather be a D-I school that aspires to the Sponsor That Didn't Pay Us So We're Not Calling It That Bowl instead of battling NDSU annually for national championships, I have no earthly idea. The MAC has been D-I forever and knows nobody will ever win a national title out of that league, which is fine, I guess. Just enjoy the WMU season for what it is. I bet Bronco fans would rather take on Wisconsin than Alabama, anyway.

Comments

UMgradMSUdad

December 12th, 2016 at 1:57 PM ^

When Bo was running the option offense back in the 70s there was a wingback position.  One of the best at that position was Jim Smith who wound up being a 3rd round draft pick by the Steelers in 1977. Smith was regarded by many as the best athlete on those mid 70s Michigan teams.

lhglrkwg

December 12th, 2016 at 12:38 PM ^

Speight was pretty solid at times and showed beautiful pocket presence all season. I'm sure Peters will be excellent in his 3rd-5th years but I'd be really surprised if Speight was surpassed by a RS Fr QB after the pretty solid year he just had. I'm no insider, but I'd assume it would take Peters being the second coming of Andrew Luck to take the job next year.

My guess would be Speight starts, is good, decides to head to the NFL and is a 2nd-3rd round pick of some team desperate for a franchise QB, then Peters takes the reins and is awesome for 2-3 years

jmblue

December 12th, 2016 at 12:49 PM ^

 

However, like you stated, he is not Harbaugh's QB, and he brought Peters in for a reason.

 

Following this reasoning, did Harbaugh recruit McCaffery because he wasn't satisfied with Peters?  

Jim's going to recruit a QB every year.  The only thing to read into that is that he wants to make sure he has strong depth at the position.

 

TheTeamTheTeam…

December 12th, 2016 at 1:40 PM ^

No because that violates his reasoning of "not Harbaugh's QB." In an "AND" statement both ends must be true, so your question of "did Harbaugh recruit McCaffery because he wasn't satisfied with Peters?" is irrelevant because it does not apply to the reasoning you are trying to question. Even though it was sarcasm.

wolfman81

December 12th, 2016 at 12:56 PM ^

Sure, that reason has nothing to do with the fact that Speight is "not his QB".  It has everything to do with the fact that we know that Speight will leave at some point.  As will O'Korn.  As has Morris.  As did Tom Brady, John Navarre, Chad Henne, Denard Robinson, Devin Gardner, and Jake Rudock before them.  Harbaugh needs to recruit so he can reload.

Also, he needs to help his players improve by giving them real competition.  As Spielman kept saying in the game I was watching yesterday (NFL -- Tampa vs. New Orleans), "So and so is getting better because the guy behind him is averaging more YPC than he did last year.  You get better when you have someone pushing you."  (Not really a quote, a paraphrase...still you get my point.)

Football is a meritocracy, not driven by seniority.  Ty Issac may be the starting RB next year, but not because he will be a RS senior.  Wilton Speight may be the starting QB next year, but not because he was the starting QB this year.  Playing time is earned, not given.

Tuebor

December 12th, 2016 at 12:31 PM ^

Outside of the Rutgers game the "pepcat" was a total failure for Peppers.  Peppers season rushing line minus his Rutgers game reads the following:

24 carries, 93 yards, 1 TD

 

By comparison Eddie McDoom's season rushing line minus his Rutgers game is the following:

14 carries, 148 yards, 0 TD

 

Now if having the presence of Peppers at QB opened up holes for the running backs on read option gives that is one thing, but Peppers (outside of the Rutgers game) didn't do much himself in his "pepcat" package.

ST3

December 12th, 2016 at 1:12 PM ^

Chesson got the 2 McDoom end-arounds against OSU. I suspect they didn't want to count on a freshman in a big road game, or maybe they were worried about telegraphing that play, hence, giving the ball to Chesson. I really think they should have run that more than once in regulation. Wisconsin gashed them for 70 yards on 6 end-around carries.

schreibee

December 12th, 2016 at 12:56 PM ^

My only real complaint about Harbaugh's tenure thus far is the mis-use of Peppers on offense this season. I mean, I don't much like going Lloyd-ball either, but aside from Iowa we didn't lose a game this year (had one taken from us yes, but didn't lose it...)

But if we examine Iowa - as obvsly was done in UFR - all that's left is mystification about how so many things could all go wrong at once?! Worst case scenario for everything JH tries to get done on O all failing together. And here's where really well thought out, well executed usage of Peppers could have saved the entire season (not to mention same in Cbus maybe wins that game).

How many times was Jabrill used on a McDoom-type sweep? Or reverse, double-reverse, pitch back, etc? Or just a plain old hand off on an Evans-type run play? Not enough is the answer!

His awkward toss back to Speight went for a big gainer, even though not classicly pretty. He rolled out looking to pass once or twice, but never did that I recall. It was all very safe and unimaginative, and a waste of a unique talent, to the point we're now going to the Orange rather than the CFP.

  • Other than that I have to ask the question that's been buggin me since Iowa - who actually calls the plays? It all seemed so Brain-trusty and cool when JH demured that he, Drev & Fisch all have a hand in it. But when things are failing, I think there should be one voice to rise above them all, and that's got to be JH OR a real OC. Accountability is crucial to fixing stuff!

snarling wolverine

December 12th, 2016 at 1:23 PM ^

Outside of the Rutgers game the "pepcat" was a total failure for Peppers. Peppers season rushing line minus his Rutgers game reads the following: 24 carries, 93 yards, 1 TD

Up through Maryland, it generally worked OK. It was in the last three games that it didn't amount to much (10 carries for 17 yards).

So in non-Rutgers games through Week 9, Peppers had 14 carries for 76 yards (5.4 avg) and a TD.

Tuebor

December 12th, 2016 at 3:33 PM ^

In non-Rutgers games through week 9 McDoom's rushing line read the following

12 carries, 154 yards, 0 TDs.

 

http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/110516aac.html

 

I think the point is that once you have too much film on the pepcat you need to add constraints.  Iowa, IU, and OSU shut that down.  I pray we don't try running it against FSU.

Tuebor

December 12th, 2016 at 4:13 PM ^

I'm just comparing rushing production between two non-running backs. 

 

The beautiful thing about end arounds is that you dont' interrupt the flow of the offense by taking the QB out like you do when you bring Peppers in. 

 

Outside of the Rutgers game, and MSU game to be fair, Peppers wasn't very good on offense.  But we know that he is a good player so it has to be that the coaches didn't put him a position to most effectively use his talents.

lhglrkwg

December 12th, 2016 at 12:40 PM ^

Harbaugh & Co have always displayed a refreshing ability to see things aren't working and adjust, or see what someone has countered with and then the counter that counter, so it was truly bizarre to me to realize after the OSU game that Harbaugh's staff was content to run Peppers into stacked lines for 2 yards at a time for half the season with no apparent counter planned for it. I don't get it.

jmblue

December 12th, 2016 at 12:54 PM ^

A couple of Pepcat plays appeared to be designed passes, but the receiver was covered and Peppers kept it.  His TD against Rutgers was one, and I think a 3rd and goal against Indiana was another.

Bertello NC

December 12th, 2016 at 3:17 PM ^

Yup. I think the staff got all giddy inside because it worked so well against Rutgers and msu. But as a staff you have to have a plan B, C, and D. Especially against osu given the importance of the game and possibly one of Peppers last games I would have liked to see us just throw the Peppers kitchen sink. Use him like Reggie Bush. Wheel routes, screens, reverses.



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matty blue

December 12th, 2016 at 1:01 PM ^

this seems similar to the denard robinson / tate forcier competition when they were both sophomores...tate had started as a freshman because he was more college-ready, and denard was a wild card, and while forcier topped out somewhat, robinson continued to develop and turned into a terrific spread qb.

this is all in retrospect, of course, and there was much more to it than that (forcier turned out to be a head case, for one thing, and denard was one of the more talented ball-carriers we've ever had), but there's something to the comparison.  speight was more ready this fall, but peters seems to have more innate talent; it wouldn't be all that surprising to see that talent develop to the point where he's clearly the right choice in 2017, even if speight continues to be a more polished player.

it's a nice problem to have, obviously...but i wonder where that would leave us in 2018, when we've presumably got speight, peters and redshirted christian mccaffrey.  hoo, boy.

stephenrjking

December 12th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^

There's some similarity on the surface, but both Forcier and Robinson were incredibly gifted. Forcier seemed to rely only on his gifts, which wound up being his downfall. Speight is much more a product of hard work, which suggests to me that he will improve this offseason and be harder for Peters to eclipse. 

Blue Sharpie

December 12th, 2016 at 12:49 PM ^

Is it wrong for schools to consistently oversign knowing they will "process" some of the guys who either don't pan out, or screw up like Brian Cole? In the past, that might have been looked down upon in the Big 10. I know Dantonio always criticizes it when he can. I never was one to criticize the SEC teams that did this. I think elite teams have to do it to some extent, because some kids are going to want to transfer if they don't get playing time and the elite teams have many juniors that jump to the NFL. So if you are Michigan or Ohio State, I think signing larger classes makes a lot of sense, even though some people don't like it. If you are Wisconsin or MSU who rely on development more than talent, there is less need to oversign. Of course also our recruiting has yet to reach an equilibrium because of Hoke era mistakes.

SituationSoap

December 12th, 2016 at 1:02 PM ^

You can sign as many players as you have room for. The thing that SEC teams were criticized for was players who signed LOIs, then were cut from the team just before the first practice, after they'd already gotten on campus. 

 

Signing more players than the technical NCAA limit isn't an ethical issue. The issue was Hugh Freeze signing 35 guys when he had room for 27, then not telling the 8 who weren't going to make the team until it was too late for them to play football anywhere else. That kind of recruiting basically can't exist any more; you can only accept so many LOIs, and anything past that are no longer binding. Teams can still recruit too many guys and need to let some go, but those guys can instantly go play somewhere else, instead of needing to wait a year like used to be the case.

Blue Sharpie

December 12th, 2016 at 2:05 PM ^

I wasn't clear about separating the bad stuff that is unethical, from the perceived bad stuff that is allowable. Dantonio and others in the big 10 like to spin it as unethical to sign large classes, and that they are better because they sign smaller classes. In other words they are saying their program is in better shape and they are vetting kids better than the ones who sign bigger classes. I don't buy that because of the reasons I mentioned. I think the only real issue now is on an individual basis when a kid is pushed out before he gets his degree, for not being a good enough football player. I don't follow all teams close enough to know who is doing that. I would hope they would give a kid a "medical " scholarship instead so he can at least get his degree. So if team A signs four years in a row 30, 30, 30, 30 stays at 85 scholies with much attrition, while team B stays at 85 by only signing 22, 22, 22, 22, there are some who ridicule Team A because of all the attrition. Neither team violated any rules. It is just perceved as unethical by some like Dantonio. That is the point I was trying to make, that elite teams will in general have more attrition and others will fault them for that. I don't know if "oversigning" is the right word for team A? Technically it should not be because they never went over 85 scholies. But I think it is still called oversigning by some who want to spin it that way.

JeepinBen

December 12th, 2016 at 2:10 PM ^

How they get there matters. Is it "normal" attrition?

Image result for saban medical scholarship

Are you Nick Saban and you just threaten kids with medical scholarships so they leave and create space? Are you LSU and after a kid signs his LOI do you just tell him to stop moving into the dorms? http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/13727507/bad-guys-utilize-oversigning-and-it-has-to-stop

Or, do you graduate guys in 4 years and give 5th year seniors a firm handshake and get them a job interview?

Blue Sharpie

December 12th, 2016 at 4:36 PM ^

or what has gone on in the past and I assume they cannot do those things now or else they would be investigated. The only team I closely follow recruiting with is Michigan. I can count three medical hardships (that I know of) given to our players under Harbugh, I do not know the inside stories except with (A. Pipkins) and it was quite confrontational so he transferred to Texas Tech and played. That left him and other people unhappy. (Not me, because Harbaugh seemed really concerned about Pipkins health). Was cutting loose Rashad Wheeler and Erik Swenson very late in the recruiting cycle uncomfortable to many? Yes. That didn't play well and we received negative recruiting from that. So we are open to some recruiting scrutiny even though we have not broken any NCAA rules. I really don't like it when I hear people on this website wanting Harbaugh to push out '17 RB Taylor in this class if we get N. Harris. Taylor is a great kid and has helped us in recruiting down south and loves Michigan. Harbaugh loves him too. So I AGREE with you that it does matter how you handle attrition and recruiting, but I cannot accurately compare what we do with other schools because I don't follow other schools recruiting very closely. All I hear are the soundbites that the SEC is the evil empire. And they may be.

His Dudeness

December 12th, 2016 at 1:00 PM ^

I had the same sort of epiphany while watching NC State play Boston College this year.

Why do these schools have football teams?

Nobody was at the game. I assume barely anyone was watching on tv.

If the teams do well it's a shoulder shrug same as if they do poorly...

It never really occured to me that the entire program is based around maybe 4,000 "die hard" NC State football fans. Are there even that many? If so, why are there that many? I just don't get the point. Maybe back in the 40's NC State could conceivably make a run and win the whole thing, but now? There is zero chance of that happening. So really what is the point?

Brodie

December 12th, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^

You could ask this question about any number of things. 

NC State is a large school. It has a lot of alumni, probably nearly as many as Michigan as the student numbers aren't far off. It's played big time football forever. Maybe there are only 4000 die hard fans, but there are hundreds of thousands of more passive fans who will turnout on ocassion and would be horribly sad if they could not spend their Saturdays passively watching their school play Wake Forest. The presence of a football team that reliably appears on ESPN, win lose or draw, is a recruiting boon. Not just in the obvious kids-want-a-winner way, either. That football team makes the school a name brand, something people have heard of... nobody knows what Illinois State is, after all, but several million have watched a Northern Illinois football game. 

The difference between the haves, like us, and the have nots is the ability to draw in people unaffiliated with the university on a consistent basis. The bricklayer in Saginaw who wears a block M hat or the truck driver from San Antonio who bleeds burnt orange are what makes some teams relevant and others not. Once you start asking these questions, you end up on a slippery slope to watching the Michigan Wolverines, AAA affiliate of the Detroit Lions, play the Oklahoma Sooners, AAA affiliate of the Kansas City Chiefs, in the Junior Super Bowl presented by Capital One.  

His Dudeness

December 12th, 2016 at 2:42 PM ^

Michigan has won at basketball.

Some teams are just never good. Never going to be good. Never were good.

I'm not just picking on NC State either.

I mean Akron. Been playing football since 1891. Nothing.

Eastern Carolina. Idaho. Louisiana Lafayette, etc.

Why? What is the point? Pack it up and go home. Seriously.

TheCool

December 12th, 2016 at 1:03 PM ^

I continued to hope that Peppers would just become part of the offense. Not that he'd take more snaps on O, but that he'd line up as a RB or in the slot and M would just run a play for him or someone else as opposed to the plays that were obviously designed for him. Whenever Peppers was on offense either he was getting the ball (90% of the time) or he was an obvious decoy.

Amutnal

December 12th, 2016 at 1:37 PM ^

Does the fact Drevno really had no surprise that we all thought would happen in the OSU suggest Drevno (coaches except harbaugh) maybe aren't all as smart and untouchable as people make them out to be? I mean everyone had the pepcat figured out and we still kept running it to our detriment in the last couple games. If you have a good coaching mind why would you waste plays on the pepcat when it was repeatedly proven to be useless?



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mgeoffriau

December 12th, 2016 at 1:31 PM ^

Interesting!

Thinking: I like comfy work pants!

[clicks through]

Thinking: Those look pretty nice. Maybe not cut exactly how I like but worth trying out if the price is....GOOD GRIEF ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY EIGHT DOLLARS FOR A PAIR OF KHAKIS WHO DO YOU THINK I AM JIM HARBAUGH?

GoBlue in IA

December 12th, 2016 at 1:22 PM ^

How great is it to finally have healthy competition at the QB position?  Speight exceeded expectations in 2016 and we will see if he has peaked or can continue to improve.  Harbaugh's track record of identifying and developing the QB position will leave the team in good hands, regardless of who wins the spot.   

alum96

December 12th, 2016 at 1:48 PM ^

I feel like at times I am the only one quite impressed with what a first year starter did at QB.  He had 1 truly bad game @ Iowa- 5th year seniors do as well.  The QB from OSU had a very bad game as a passer too against us and sucked vs MSU the week prior.  And he was not a first year starter.  

Michigan had very unbalanced offenses in both the losses as he had little run game.  35 carries for under 100 yards vs Iowa.  And without Speight out there vs OSU what offense did we have at all?  Unfortunately his picks created both teams offense but he was spot on money dead accurate for 3 quarters aside from the picks.  Once he went cool (which a QB should be allowed to do for one quarter) UM had nothing else do the OL and no running back able to create yards on their own.

I was pretty impressed with this guy coming into the year having little expectation coming into the year.  Coming back to the blog I am quite surprised how many people find his performance meh to mediocre. 

John Navarre (not the greatest QB in the world but a very competent college QB) was 59.2% competion ratio, 7.3. yards per attempt, 24 TD/10 INT, 133.6 rating.  AS A SENIOR.

Chad Henne as a senior was 58.3%, 7.0 YPA, 17/9, 130.5.  AS A FOURTH YEAR STARTER.

Wilton was 62.5%, 8.1 YPA, 17/6, 145.6. 

Those stats match up well to Elvis Grbac's 2nd year as a starter.  And nearly mirror Todd Collins' best season.

Last I heard QBs usually have a quite large jump between their first year starting and second.  I don't know - maybe I'm drinking kool aid.