Last Friday I asked for football questions and got a lot. Roughly these fell into two categories: What’s going on with the college football landscape, and what does Michigan look like next year. So I’ll break those into two posts. If your question didn’t get answered, it’s because the person who asked something similar is better looking.

Why can’t we get a transfer?

Mercury Hayes asked:

It is clear that Mel Tucker and MSU is going to target the transfer portal heavily to shore up their roster each year. With a team as strong as Michigan, why aren't we seeing more of this?

Michigan is notoriously hard to transfer into. In deep history this wasn’t a case, since smaller colleges used to do the talent collection work that big high school programs do today. But today, Michigan treats transfers athletes no differently than other transfer students, and like many elite academic institutions, are stingy with the credits.

Why isn’t this a problem with freshmen? While there are a lot of kids Michigan won’t even offer once they see their transcripts, given enough headway, the football program can get most of the freshmen they recruit into Michigan the normal way, and they get a hard number of quasi-waivers for the rest. With a transfer, our academic experts have to work with what they’ve got, and in most cases it won’t be enough. Even if they can get them in, they can’t get enough of their classes to match up with classes that Michigan offers, so the guy has to be good with essentially starting his career over again.

Thus Michigan has been limited to grad transfers, guys who don’t mind virtually starting from scratch, and Stanford’s roster. Here’s the breakdown of Michigan’s 20 transfers since 1990:

• Grads (10): Jake Rudock, Wayne Lyons, Blake O’Neill, Casey Hughes, Mike Danna, Willie Allen, Jordan Whittley, Daylen Baldwin, Alan Bowman, and Victor Oluwatimi
• Freshmen (5): Jonathan Goodwin, Spencer Brinton, Steven Threet, Ty Isaac, Andrew Gentry
• Mid-Career (3): Grant Mason, Shea Patterson, John O'Korn
• Jucos (2): Russell Shaw and Austin Panter

Grant Mason came from Stanford. Their two Jucos were a guy from the mid-1990s and one who played 8-on-8 football in high school and became a doctor. Then you have Shea Patterson and John O'Korn who both came after 1.5 years at their old schools. O'Korn sat out a season and needed 4 years to graduate. I don't know if Patterson got his degree.

I assume, but don’t know, that other football schools have much cozier relationships with admissions. That part is never going to change, but Michigan’s undergraduate admissions could ease off quite a bit and still be elite. Northwestern took six transfers last year. It’s really just us and Stanford who can’t seem to cut a deal between the jocks and the admissions pencilnecks. If there's some sort of "Jim needs a quarterback" exception I think that could be extended.

On the flipside, Michigan is a top-15 recruiting school that has to go well outside of its footprint to keep up that pace, and regularly leaves 4-stars on the bench, so they're bound to give up more transfers than most. The first year that players could free transfer (because of COVID) was alarming, dwarfing even the Great Rich Rod Flight.

Dismissed players not included.
(Click here if the interactive table isn't working.)

The thick yellow bars above were the glory days when grad transfers were free, which was ideal for Michigan’s particular needs and valuable graduate degrees. It also helped in recruiting; part of the pitch in those years was “commit to us and worst-case scenario you’ve got that degree with 2 years to play somewhere.”

The chart above isn’t that alarming, however, because few of Michigan’s recent out-transfers have left us wondering what could have been. Most of the guys who’ve left the program under the free transfer rules were looking for playing time, IE they weren’t playing here. If anything, it’s made it easier, and less skeezy, to oversign and trim the roster.

It’s going to lead to faster roster turnover for everybody. For Michigan, it means they can recruit larger freshman classes, refreshing mostly scholarship positions from guys who weren’t going to play into more guys who might someday. That’s also true for schools like Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia, which have an easier time recruiting, and have greater access to mid-career up-transfers, but that’s not a big change. What’s different is they’ll be replacing their 3rd year guys who aren’t playing with someone else’s 3rd year guys, while Michigan’s rosters will get even more freshman-heavy.

Realistically, where the transfer market changes football the most is it raises the quality of the mid and lower-mid range programs who can fill major roster holes before it gets to true freshman Ray Vinopal. The schools it helps most are the mid-tier programs like Indiana, Illinois, or Michigan State that can protect their stars from getting poached, but often develop big roster holes. Being able to fill those with Michigan and Florida leftovers raises the floor for those teams; Kenneth Walker III-type impact players are probably going to be super-rare.

My biggest concern is the opportunity for tampering, because it’s not like the NCAA is going to regulate that better than they (don’t) do anything else. Any time an NCAA rule is getting widely flouted, it’s going to disadvantage Michigan, because Michigan’s self-image is wrapped up in that being the case. The alarming thing about Xavier Worthy going to Texas wasn’t just losing a star freshman before he played, but how blatantly Sarkisian was communicating with him, and they just got away with it. Apparently that’s been happening a lot, which isn’t surprising, since the transfer rules came about in the first place because that was happening with great frequency back in the day.

What’s the answer? I’ve heard of some labor markets using a document signed by both parties that stipulates enforceable conditions for an exchange of services, but I don’t think the NCAA wants to go there.

[After THE JUMP: NIL, another big chart, and the return of The Clans]

How is NIL going to work?

MGoUser Blau asks…

Could you give us a realistic assumption of how UM can/will make NIL work and how to compete with the Daddy Warbuxes of the CFB recruiting world other than out-spending them? I get this feeling the wild west of NIL is going to get some regulations soon or UM waits something 3-6-12 months from now and misses the boat.

My assumption is that there will continue to be two different types of income from the new NIL rules:

1. NIL, where a player is paid to endorse something. This is everything from Cade standing outside a local steakhouse one time to gambling organizations paying a guy to be in their commercials or promote their games on social media.
2. “NIL” where program boosters funnel money to players to get them to sign with their team or stick around.

The biggest difference between the two is “NIL” is expressly prohibited by the “pay to play” language of the NCAA’s interim rule, but also completely unregulated. The other big difference is “NIL” is where most of the action is going to take place.

That’s a tricky spot for Michigan, which now has to take a more active role in a dishonest system. Outside of the program—because by design this happens with minimal contact with the coaches—Michigan’s booster network is trying to learn how to do things on the fly that SEC schools and Ohio State figured out long ago. Who pools the money? Where do they meet? How do you distribute it? To a Texas A&M the only difference today is scale, because donors who were squeamish about it before now feel they can act in the open. Michigan has to create that whole market out of whole cloth, doesn’t trust people outside of the program in general, and has no leadership or experience to draw on. Oh, and it’s still technically against the rules. Michigan also has to work around its state-specific law, which creates additional hurdles for what can and can’t be partnered about.

One thing we haven’t seen yet but should pop up soon are traditions. I joked about having the starting fullback be the official MGoBlog spokesman while we tried to legalize NIL, but there are probably going to be lucrative opportunities. For example, Michigan could talk to Nike about making one Michigan guy per year the Jordan Ambassador. Another Michigan player could star in Google’s Super Bowl ad. If Michigan was smart, they’d be jumping on big ideas like that as soon--and as loudly--as possible.

Ultimately I think things will be messy for a few years and then we’ll settle into a new normal. A few early adopters will fall off when the novelty does, and a few good ideas (eg a local bbq sponsor for the OL) will become norms, and the NCAA will pass new rules in response to coaches’ complaints that make no sense and are mostly ignored. For our part, Michigan will have some sort of slush fund that’s the envy of most schools, and which will go to creating overpaid sponsorships for the starting QB and the odd Dax Hill we recruit. They still won’t get into bidding wars for the Walter Nolens.

How will NIL change college football?

MGlobules asks:

Offer, if you would, your sense of both the best and worst possible scenarios that may now emerge, and not just how they may effect (sic) Michigan football but the game.

For Michigan, the best case scenario is that 5-star talent gets more diffused throughout college football. I liked it when Ole Miss signed a score of five-stars in 2016 because those guys were going to Alabama otherwise. When Nick Saban roared that the #1 overall recruit could be bought by an FCS school, what he’s talking about is NIL’s potential to reverse the trend of elite recruits clumping at two to four elite programs, specifically his.

The following graph shows a made-up Sethstat I call “Clumping.” That is: when a 5-star signed that year, on average how many other 5-stars committed to the same school in the last 3 classes.

People remarked in the BCS years that Tennessee and Florida State were cleaning up on the recruiting trail, and later worried what would happen to the game when Pete Carroll and Urban Meyer were packing them in. Things have been way worse lately.

NIL has the potential to reverse this trend, generating greater parity among CFP hopefuls as the top-end talent gets diffused among them. This cycle we saw the #1 overall player to go to Jackson State, and Iowa keep a five-star safety everybody assumed would go to Ohio State. Missouri and North Carolina also kept local, top-5 overall prospects home by selling the financial ramifications of being a hometown hero. Those were all explicitly NIL considerations that kept a player from going to a team standing in Michigan’s path to a championship.

The worst case scenario is that unfettered “NIL” money, and Michigan’s unwillingness to play that game, leads to Michigan losing more recruits to this diffusion than their competition at the same time that the middle part of Michigan’s schedule is getting tougher from their own “NIL” efforts and greater access to the transfer market. Also if there’s more local pull, that’s bad news for programs that have to recruit nationally to maintain their historical standard.

In all cases, the more NIL acts as an equalizer, the better for Michigan, which can always fall back on that degree.

For the game, here are my predictions:

• Big money to a few elite players, pocket money for the vast majority.
• Few lump sums except for commits, as teams use NIL for retention.
• More players putting off the NFL.
• Some form of clampdown from the NCAA on poaching players after Ohio State loses a guy to tampering.
• Ohio State loses 42-27 to Michigan (this may have already occurred).
• Late bidding wars (eg the Kiyaunta Goodwin saga) between non-traditional powers who need some press.
• Greater disbursement of top-end talent, though only enough that the obsessives truly notice.

Other than that, I think those who believe “NIL” is going to fundamentally change anything about the transactional aspects of college football are fundamentally delusional about how college football has always worked. Pay for play is so engrained in college football Michigan was already doing it in 1893. Once you get to this level, everybody in football is there for business, with those not going to the NFL cashing in on the notoriety, connections and direct opportunities from playing in college.

The difference will be felt most by the players, who are going to have more independent wealth, more opportunities to develop their business skills, and who will have a business incentive to stay where everybody knows their name.

How can I NIL?

BlueTuesday asks…

Let’s say I have a lawn care business and I want to film a commercial of me cutting the grass on some random football field 5 seconds before Moody blasts a 50 yarder through the uprights. While he’s kicking there would be a caption that says “ University of Michigan placekicker Jake Moody” or something close to that.

I’ll pay Moody $10,000 for 5 seconds of screen time.

1. Is it allowed under the NIL?

2. How would someone reach out to Moody to see if he’d be interested?

Hypothetically speaking.

A couple of issues here, which illuminate some of the hurdles of NIL. One is what are you doing with this commercial? If you’re just filming a commercial for local access, your issue is whether $10,000 is a rightful expense for a celebrity to be on your commercial, and depending on how your business is set up that’s between you and your investors. If this commercial is for the MGoPodcast I feel I must set some expectations as to what we mean by “very visual.”

Also, I don’t know who determines where the line is between “pay to play” and the going rate for a celebrity spokesman, but if you’re going to approach Moody about this you’d better know what it means regarding his compliance with the NCAA rule outlined above.

If you want to say “University of Michigan…” on there, you now run into issues with Michigan’s licensing. State of Michigan House Bill 5217, Section 10(2) states:

This act does not establish or bestow the right of a student to use the name, trademarks, services marks, logos, symbols, or any other intellectual property, whether registered or not, of a postsecondary educational institution, athletic association, conference, or other group or organization with authority over intercollegiate athletics, in furtherance of the student’s opportunities to earn compensation for the student’s use of his or her name, image, or likeness rights.

Players’ use of Michigan-licensed logos etc. is a contentious issue with merits on both sides. Licensing will have to give some because they don’t want to be the only school that doesn’t allow its athletes to appear in uniform. They’re unlikely to let The Brand be used for a company they don’t like, or for an industry (e.g. gambling) they don’t want affiliated with the school. They may also want a cut.

They may also kibosh your sponsorship for one of theirs. Same document, Section 7(2):

If the postsecondary educational institution described in subsection (1) identifies a conflict between the student’s proposed opportunity or contract and any existing agreements of the postsecondary educational institution, the postsecondary educational institution shall communicate that conflict to the student so that the student may negotiate a revision of the opportunity or contract to avoid the conflict and that revision is subject to additional review and approval by the postsecondary educational institution in accordance with this section.

Don’t assume that just because there is no conflict with UM that they won’t find one. I know from great personal experience that Michigan’s squeamishness about flouting NCAA rules does not extend to flaunting copyright law. If they decide they don’t like your lawn business, or if they have a donor with a lawn business, you’re likely to get a “no” that’s not worth fighting.

Likely we’ll see some kind of portal put together by the program in the coming months where a business like yours can submit an idea and discuss it with the player, his agent, and someone representing Michigan’s interests. Once that’s in place, the school will use its leverage to funnel most NIL opportunities through its system. At the moment it’s really kind of open—if you have a connection to a guy you can reach out and do something, and there’s not a lot they can do if you’re already shot the commercial.

What does Michigan need to be competitive?

On the mgo round table pod @mgoblog said he doesn’t think we can win a national title because we can’t stack talent like Uga/Bama. Hasn’t Clemson shown another model - top 5-8 talent with a generational QB can win it. That seems realistic, possibly as soon as 2023.

— Major impact player (@jacob_g2013) January 14, 2022

Yeah, and that was either my response to Brian on that podcast, or the thing I was thinking about but didn’t jut in because I’m working at avoiding long tangents lately. Georgia won with a generational defense, but a weak-for-Alabama version of Bama went 1-1 against them this year because they had a Heisman-winning performance from their quarterback in SECCG 1.0. The nature of football is everyone is going to have relative weaknesses you try to strategically cover for, and a few strengths that you try to strategically emphasize.

Nothing in football is more unbeatable than a deep, accurate pass to a fast, athletic receiver. You can get a 1-on-1 matchup in the passing game virtually every play, which the secret to Tom Brady’s success is that he knows defenses so well he can consistently find that leverage.

Clemson’s model is a likely route to a Michigan title, because we’re not going to have access to the entire recruiting market (see above), but do have a promising 5-star quarterback on hand. Clemson also built the rest with a lot of underrated three-stars and low four-stars who were interested in the school’s particular culture—Evangelical Christianity in their case. Substitute religion for academics, and you have a similar recipe for Michigan.

On the other hand, Michigan plays in a much tougher conference, and has to get through Ohio State to get to the conference championship, whereas Clemson wouldn’t typically face one of the unholy trio until the 1st round of the playoff. The 2016, 2018, and possibly 2015 and 2019 editions of Michigan are probably playoff teams against a Clemson schedule.

The other problem with the Clemson recipe is 2021 Clemson: if you fail to produce the most valuable type of player in football—you know, the thing Harbaugh had once at Stanford and everybody wants—your 12-0 team can quickly fall to 8-4. I think everyone agrees that having a #1 overall pick type of quarterback on an otherwise decent team is a recipe for championships. It’s a given. That they’re so hard to come by is the reason we generally skip past the possibility and look for others.

User TeslaRedVictorBlue wrote:

If Michigan is truly going to compete with the Georgia and Alabamas - being amazing at what position group BEST enables that to happen? Keep QB out of it since that's easy. I would have thought DL, but our DL was completely neutralized and we will likely not see another DE combo with 25 sacks in the near future. So if we were to recruit elite athletes and develop them to the max, where would we make up the most ground?

The answer is “all of it” but after the quarterback, defensive tackle is where you can get the most bang for your recruiting buck. If you’re playing an NFL game, which is where Ohio State and the CFP regulars are in offense, it really is as simple as winning the battle in the trenches. You saw Georgia’s DTs, and also how Michigan struggled to move the ball this year against MSU, PSU, and Nebraska because they weren’t winning inside consistently. Pass-rushing DTs can cover for bad coverage. Run-stuffing DTs make linebacking so much easier. Guys who do both can turn a super-young 2017 Michigan defense into a top-ten outfit. Win inside and they have to attack you outside. At that point if they can’t edge your Devin Bush (or you can’t edge theirs), goodnight.

Speed at WR and CB are two sides of the same coin where 1-on-1 matchups matter a lot. And don’t underrate DEs: the pass-rushers were neutralized only by Georgia taking a lot of their offense off the table. After the first few drives, they mostly moved the ball with big plays on Vincent Gray and Junior Colson.

There’s a difference between elite units and where elite recruiting happens, though. It’s hard to know what OL will become when they’re 18, whereas positions that rely on speed and athleticism to win individual matchups see a closer correspondence between rankings and performance.

You can make a lot of things work, however, when you can consistently win certain matchups. Iowa’s defense started with a stout secondary, which allowed them to bring interesting blitzes, and they rode that formula three quarters into the Big Ten championship game before Michigan punked their secondary with tight ends.

Goodbye. Thanks for playing.

By the time you’re competing with Bama/Georgia/Ohio State, though, you need to be solid everywhere on defense, and mostwhere on offense, because they’re going to have the talent to attack you in all places. The Dawgs were the first to really match Michigan’s running game and also blow Michigan’s 5-2 front off the ball. Ohio State’s LBs got slaughtered by the receiver room Gattis left to Alabama a couple of years ago. Bama’s Josh Jobe, the guy Nico Collins was burning in our 2019 bowl, was attacked ruthlessly by every Tide opponent with speed at WR and a QB who could exploit it. In the playoffs you meet teams where your “good enough” is no longer, and your “better than” is merely equal to. Georgia didn’t win DE/OT matchup; they cut off that limb and beat us elsewhere. Michigan needs a few more limbs to do that.

What if we lose Harbaugh?

If [Harbaugh leaves this year or next or the next], how do you envision that coaching search going? I feel that we've only made 1 'Michigan Man' hire (Brady Hoke), but in the 07/08 offseason, Rich Rod definitely faced some criticisms for not being a 'Michigan Man'. Has the 'Michigan Man' faction aged out of the University leadership?

The “Michigan Man” faction in the Rodriguez era was a coalition of the people who saw Bo as the epitome of Michiganness, and those who wanted a continuation of Lloyd Carr’s program. Their influence mattered because Dave Brandon was so misguided, incompetent, and persuadable by the curated clique around him that he could have changed his last name to Bourbon.

“Michigan Man” is also our version of nationalism, and speaking as a history major, nothing cures a case of “my people are just better than yours” dumbassitude like incontrovertible evidence that you ain’t shit. That got us to 2014, and Harbaugh/Hackett were careful in 2015 to steer the program’s messaging away from “Michigan is special, period” in favor of a more defensible “Michigan is special to us.”

As a fanbase, however we still have The Clans. Where are they now?

Bo Clan (14%). Sees Harbaugh as one of them. A lot of them put kids on the team, and today mostly cause problems by trying to defend Bo’s legacy from Bo’s greatest mistake. Their candidate if Harbaugh leaves is Luke Fickell, because a Michigan-hating Buckeye having success at a mid-major in Southwestern Ohio worked last time.

The Rebellion (11%). Sees Harbaugh as getting old, credit much of last year’s success to the young staff and a weak Big Ten. They want our defense to practice against tempo so they won’t get abused by it, want JJ in, want the Bo statue removed, and feel betrayed by the ongoing failure of the current administration to deliver on their campaign promise of #SpeedInSpace. Their twitter avatars quietly dropped the soup bowl icons over the course of 2021 but if Harbaugh leaves they’ll order up Matt Campbell again faster than you can say “Bucket Problem,” with the caveat that he has to retain Ron Bellamy.

Corduroy Jacket w Patch (1%). Thought NIL was the worst thing in the world until they heard the phrase “Mark Schlissel Sex Emails.” As their world crumbles around them, they’ve mostly retreated to the sanctuary of the Michigan Admissions office, where they intend to hold every transfer hostage until Michigan’s world class biologists resurrect Bennie Oosterbaan and reinstate him at a level commiserate with an adjunct professor. Only other person they’ll let in the door is Ron Bellamy—had him in Poly 304 and he was such a sweetie.

In Rod We Trusted (0.0002%). Single-issue party’s numbers have dwindled down to two fans total. These days they spend much of their time planning their wedding (Congratulations Jen!) and demanding new versions of the “Sometimes When You’re On” video. If Harbaugh leaves, they’ll hear you out on Devin Gardner, but they also love Ron Bellamy.

Lloyd Loyalists (10%). Only just now recovering from the failure of Brady Hoke, which undermined their influence, and drove their hypercriticism of Harbaugh’s program underground until they were able to rebuild the party in 2020. Harbaugh’s response was to bring more of them inside with the hiring of Mike Hart, Courtney Morgan, and Ron Bellamy last winter, which that and the success of 2021 mean Harbaugh has earned the right to keep Hart’s seat warm for a little longer.

Cotton Pickin’ Blues (47%). Think college football is dying, and warning of grave consequences of NIL. Foresaw giving away open transfers as a problem and want you to acknowledge it’s been a disaster. Worried about losing Jim Harbaugh but are willing to hand the keys over to Josh Gattis if it comes to that, because continuity matters.

Fierce Pragmatists (2%). These Xenniels got a hammer to the face of their cool reason when S&P’s #1 defense got shredded by 2018 Ohio State. Shortly after Bill C went to ESPN they opened a club called The BPONE that only showed basketball, and learned an awful lot about bourbons. Sometime between 42-27 and 42-3 they emerged and reopened some of the old spreadsheets. If Harbaugh leaves they’ll tell you Iowa State’s 2021 was extremely unlucky, also point you toward Wake Forest’s offense, but mostly assert that whoever it is needs to recruit elite talent.

The Second Estate (1.5%). Externally they are 100% behind the program. Internally they are screaming at each other over the direction of NIL and their relative lack of access versus other programs, while also tripping over themselves to be the one who knows the most about Harbaugh’s intentions. If Harbaugh leaves, they’d listen to Bill O’Brien because of what he did at Penn State.

The Decatur Clan (4%). Still hunting down anyone who didn’t believe, or still have any criticism, and cudgeling them with that clip of Hutchinson versus the Ohio State tackle and a jug of 2% milk. Jim Harbaugh deserves everything he wants after last year’s turnaround, and if he leaves the next coach deserves all the support Harbaugh didn’t get. Who should that be? Cade McNamara, of course! Tom Brady will suffice.

The Harbaughs (10.5%). The new clan. Who’s got it better than us? You’re damn right. The way they treated Jim last year was a disgrace, and the reason the NFL is back in play. Why wouldn’t it be? How many guys out there have won the Big Ten and took a team to the Super Bowl? Jim should take the Jacksonville job just to show he’s superior to Urban Meyer, but if he doesn’t count your lucky stars, pay the man, and don’t let me catch you drinking that BPONE or 2% crap ever again.

The one thing they all have in common is they love Ron Bellamy.

Gun to my head I think ISU’s Matt Campbell is still the best prospect that Michigan could get—he’s got the right connections and values, he would certainly come, and he put together a solid program in Ames, which is Ames. Plus he’s young. Their 2021 record had a lot of bad luck in it, but the fancystats still love him. He also comes with a great DC—I am pleased with Macdonald but sorta assume he’d jump back to the NFL if Harbaugh does—and would probably be amenable to leaving the rest of the staff in place.

But honestly if they lost Harbaugh today, my guess is they go with Gattis. When you’ve got the reigning Broyles winner on staff, you don’t have to overthink it.