Illinois 93, Michigan 85
It started as The Alfonso Plummer Game and it ended as the Michigan Can't Defend A Ball Screen Game. Either way you look at it, due to a convergence of factors, Michigan's defensive effort today against Illinois at Crisler Center was wretched. In the process, it doomed the home team to a 93-85 loss on Sunday afternoon, despite a valiant comeback late that came up just short. With only three games left in the season, the 15-12 Wolverines are now likely in need of two wins in the final week of the regular season to feel good about the NCAA Tournament entering the B1G Tourney in Indianapolis.
The opening of the game was a torrid explosion from the Illinois shooters, and more specifically, Alfonso Plummer. The journeyman wing sniper shoveled in threes like coal into a steam engine, shooting 7/11 from the floor in the first half, including 5/8 from distance, plus 4/6 at the stripe for a whopping 23 points. Michigan lost track of Plummer on a few occasions, but he was also knocking down difficult shots off the dribble from way outside. The ole heatcheck shots, as they call them. The Illini offense was not nearly as successful outside of Plummer, with the squad mustering barely 40% from two, but shooting 8/14 from three point range will take you far. Trent Frazier and Kofi Cockburn were tied with 8 points in the first half.
Michigan was unable to properly keep pace with Illinois' shooting explosion in that first half, but they did manage to enter the half only down eight. They did it despite making just two three pointers in that first half and despite only one player having a truly satisfactory offensive half. That would be Caleb Houstan, who led the Wolverines with 11 points, including 2/2 from three. The bigs struggled, though, with Dickinson and Diabate combining to shoot 4/14 from the floor. Dickinson in particular was not attacking the rim with enough strength, settling for awkward 6-8 foot floaters that were clanging out. Still, Michigan banked eight points at the line, did enough to limit turnovers, and entered the break down only 46-38.
[Campredon]
It was in the second half that Michigan's defensive issues grew from "the other team is shooting the lights out and we're occasionally contributing to that" to "total schematic meltdown in the ball screen game". Though Illinois managed to shoot 67% from three in the second half, it came on just three attempts. The reason? They didn't need to attempt threes because the Fighting Illini shot a scorching 71% from two in the second half. Why try a three pointer when you can walk into the paint untouched for an easy deuce? That was the storyline. Illinois' ballscreens just obliterated the Michigan defense, with Brad Underwood using Kofi Cockburn's body like a fullback, clearing easy lanes to the rim. Often times, the penetrator would lay it off to Cockburn once inside, and the big man hung 19 on Michigan on 7/8 from the floor in the half.
Michigan's offense struggled to keep pace with the sieve that was their defense, and the margin expanded to 15 points with 9:32 to go. The game started to seem over, but that's when DeVante' Jones put on his superhero cape. After Diabate had begun to trim the lead back to ~10, Jones took over, drawing a foul at the three point line and making all three, before knocking down a three on Michigan's next trip down the floor. Suddenly, the score was 76-71 Illinois with 6:32 to go. The Illini responded with a quick spurt of their own, highlighting some of Jones' defensive issues, getting two easy driving layups off screens for Andre Curbelo and Frazier.
DeVante' Jones helped lead Michigan back [Campredon]
Michigan and Jones weren't done, though. Jones made a layup and after an Illinois turnover, he swished a couple free throws to trim it back to four, now with 3:12 left. Dickinson was hit with a tough foul, but Coleman Hawkins made just one of two at the line, and a transition three by Houstan forty seconds later sent Crisler into a frenzy: Illinois led just 82-80 with 2:03 to play. That was the end of the comeback, unfortunately. Kofi Cockburn made a hook shot, Houstan came up short on a layup attempt (possible foul was not called), Illinois snagged an OREB on a Jacob Grandison missed three that kicked off the heel, and then Trent Frazier knocked down a pull-up trey. 87-80 Illinois with 45 seconds left... goodnight. The teams traded makes and free throws in the final seconds, but the margin didn't budge much. Final score: Illinois 93, Michigan 85.
In the end, Michigan lost this game because they let the opponent score 93 points on 57% from the field. It is very difficult to win a basketball game when your ball screen defense was as poor as Michigan's, and the fact they were within a bucket with under a minute to go despite playing that sort of interior defense, is pretty miraculous. Jones was not great defensively, but his 25 points helped keep Michigan in it, as did Houstan's 21. The big men did not pull their weight on offense, and the defense eliminated much of any chance of winning.
The Wolverines now are 15-12 and 9-8 in the conference, with three games remaining. Those are home games against Michigan State and Iowa, followed by a road game against Ohio State. The goal should be to go 2-1 in those remaining three to shore up the tournament odds heading into Indianapolis. The next one, against the Spartans on Tuesday night, is a huge one. That game is scheduled for Tuesday night at 8:30 PM EST and will be broadcasted on FS1.
[Click the JUMP for the box score]
February 27th, 2022 at 5:16 PM ^
To get lit up like that at home in a crucial game is discouraging to say the least.
February 27th, 2022 at 5:16 PM ^
Alex, good article. The D was horrible and the refs didn't help with some questionable calls. MSU and Iowa are both must wins at this point
February 27th, 2022 at 5:19 PM ^
Just have to make the tournament. This team can make a deep run if they can escape the Big Ten referee training course that is the regular season.
February 27th, 2022 at 8:46 PM ^
People keep acting like this team is secretly really good just waiting to explode. It's not. It's a mediocre team with one great player, a starting line up that isn't a great fit together with absolutely no bench, and also consistently struggles on D. They are better than their non-con, but they are about what their conference record suggests.
The bottom line is sure, this team is playing better than a bubble team, but not by much, and the reality is they can't just erase their non-con.
February 28th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
Bless their hearts...I believe they have given good effort. But this team has one foot in the grave. And though a bit premature, it looks as though it is eulogy time-for anything significant to happen. Preseason, I believe there were legitimately high expectations for this team. In hindsight, this roster is pretty much a disaster. From the player side, this team is leaderless-there is no heart-and-soul. Michigan has nobody that approaches being great in any aspect of this game-not even close. At this time, here, it appears as though only Houstan and Diabate hold any possibility for elevating this teams play-and two freshmen cannot be expected to carry a team.
This team is, now, going to need to play to their highest ability level if they are going to advance to significant post-season play. Jones is providing some hope-along with the youngsters but Brooks, Dickinson and Johns are simply not offering hope in this regard. The bench is soooo young...there is virtually no bench. Bottom line is that there is not a single player or group of players on this team who has the ability to pull this team along physically and/or psychologically to/on a path of the hoped for success. Hope springs eternal.
Next year-a peek ahead: The youngsters will be a year older and, hopefully, a year or more better. Jett would seem to be the only likely contributor from the 2022 recruits. Five or more of the current roster should be gone-hopefully Houstan and Diabate return. We need to make portal hay for a stout, athletic rim defender-don't care if all he can do offensively is rebound and dunk. The starting five holds interesting possibilities. Frankie has shown excellent upside. Diabate and Houstan will, hopefully be in there. I hope Williams realizes a grinder, defensive, dirty-work role. I hope Barnes, or somebody, shows up who can be a slasher-and perhaps an elite wing defender. Maybe Tschetter can actually shoot! This roster has nobody who can effectively defend the five and hold down the inside fort...I like Reed a lot but he will be too young to take major responsibility-got to find a solid portal player. It would be nice to have a very pleasant surprise or two.
Hope springs eternal.
February 28th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
I don't think people think it's necessarily "secretly" really good when they say that can make a deep run.
It's a single elimination tournament. And Michigan is a team that's good enough to beat Purdue by 24 on a good night, even if they're inconsistent. That was one of the more impressive performances by any team all season. And Michigan is unquestionably playing like a solid top 25 team in the past month.
So if you get into the tournament as a 10 or 11 seed, you're going to have a winnable game to start. Then if you hit one of your "good" games in the second round, you can beat a 2 or 3 seed. Then if some upsets happen, you could end up playing a 9 seed like Michigan did in 2018 then it's another coin flip game in the third round and you win that and boom you're in the elite 8.
It's not necessarily about Michigan suddenly becoming elite. It's more about the crapshoot nature of the tournament. Just get in and you never know what can happen.
February 27th, 2022 at 5:19 PM ^
Have to take down Sparty and probably Iowa. If we can take away the transition O for both teams we’ll have a great chance. Illinois right now is a terrible matchup but Michigan scored pretty well on them. Just didn’t make enough plays down the stretch. Hopefully we shore up the defense and knock off MSU and Iowa to pretty much lock up this bid barring a lot of unfortunate results happening.
February 27th, 2022 at 5:25 PM ^
I've been as critical as possible about Michigan's defense but today I didn't think it was that bad (it wasn't great but it was not 93 points bad).
Also, the guy guarding the ball on ball screens is almost never at fault. It's all about how the dropper/hedger plays the ball and how the rest of the team scrambles/tags on the roller.
Yes, sometimes the guy guarding the ball makes mistakes like Jones fouling Frazier on the pull up while trying to recover, but those are rare. When Kofi Cockburn screens you and takes you out of the play, it's on everyone else to mitigate damage.
There was a stretch in the second half where the pick and roll defense was bad, but when Dickinson has a hard time protecting the rim and preventing rolls which is the job when you're playing drop coverage, that's going to happen.
That was the other killer aspect of Illinois being hot from three in the first half. Michigan was more hesitant to help off shooters so they weren't tagging rollers. I do think they went to the zone a little too late. Needed to just be willing to give up some threes and hope Illinois finally missed (which they finally did, they got the oreb *facepalm*).
In the end, 10-17 on threes, most of which were the absurd step-back variety is very unlucky. Kofi hitting all his hooks was pretty unlucky too. And when the refs are this bad, good night.
As an aside, sometimes Dickinson just doesn't bring the energy like today. Gave up some critical orebs late (on the FT and the late three) in addition to not being able to provide any resistance on pick and rolls. I feel like day games are usually blah for him as far as bringing the energy.
Additional notes:
- Unadjusted plus/minus is a crazy stat. Plummer was minus 2 despite having an absurdly efficient offensive game and Curbello was plus 17 despite having 4 TOs in 20 min?
- If you hadn't yet come around on Jones and this game didn't do it for you, I don't know what else to say. Obviously the efficient 25 points and 10 assists speak for itself as the guy carrying the offense with Hunter having an off day, but when it seemed like everyone else had quit, the guy just kept playing so hard. Ran down Kofi to foul on a sure dunk if he didn't, then later on a pick and roll recovered well enough to get a hand in and force a turnover.
- I said on the preview Hunter needed to shoot at least 6 threes and make at least 2 and he went 1/5....not quite enough.
Must win Tuesday.
February 27th, 2022 at 6:35 PM ^
Signed in to make much the same points about Jones and Dickinson here. Dickinson's poor defense in the early part of the year--better masked on a better defensive team last year--is improved through the second half of the season. But I don't think he has the stamina to play really hard at both ends. I think he'll still have lots left to prove by season's end, but doubt he sticks around. And he still pouts at times.
If a player on a losing team can receive a game ball, Jones, just playing his head off out there and playing well.
For much of the game we were just watching a better team beat us; glad Michigan made it close--gives them a little more reason to believe. We're missing some of that swagger from recent seasons.
February 28th, 2022 at 12:04 AM ^
I'd have to go back and watch that stretch of pick and rolls and chart them but live I noticed a few things:
- Hunter was often staying behind Kofi leaning on him to keep him from rolling instead of dropping
- Michigan wasn't offering much (any) help from the perimeter because they were so scared of threes
- This meant several easy paths to the rim for Curbello/ball handlers or easy rolls for Kofi if Hunter did step out to try to provide resistance on the ball handler
Again, without Hunter being the type of athlete that can both protect the rim from the ball handler while also getting in passing lanes, I'm not sure there's a whole lot you can do. And I thought he and the scheme were much better than against MSU. It's just that this particular Illinois team with Curbello and Kofi is perhaps just too much for Hunter even with the elite wings Michigan had last year. That game was even worse.
I do think Michigan went to the zone too late. They were worried about giving up open threes so they weren't playing it much but when you're down, and you're getting burned that badly, you have to just pack the paint, give up threes and hope they miss, IMO.
February 28th, 2022 at 12:37 AM ^
I too don't think Dickinson's defense was bad. (After all, he was guarding Kofi with basically no help. And Kofi had a couple shots that really didn't look like they'd go in. What other center could have done better.) I think the biggest problem with regard to Hunter was that he had quite a few good shots in the first half that he normally hits at a good rate. Maybe he was hurrying a bit because of Kofi.
February 28th, 2022 at 12:39 AM ^
Hunter's post defense is fine, solid I would even say. And I thought Kofi got some more than his share of tough hooks to go down.
But Hunter's pick and roll defense is pretty bad, especially when the Illinois guards and Kofi can get downhill on him so fast. But again, I didn't see the kind of lazy, mental mistakes on his part today that we saw against MSU. It was just physical limitation for the most part which, so nothing you can do.
February 28th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
Your comments are more perceptive than mine. I do think his defense is improved, but I think he's missing shots because he's flagging a little, working hard at both ends.
February 27th, 2022 at 5:25 PM ^
2 things stick out to me:
1) When your two primary bigs shoot 9/22, you're likely going to have trouble winning.
2) I honestly thought this defense would improve over the course of the year, with so many young players. I figured there would be room for much improvement. I even snapped at someone earlier this season (after Seton Hall, perhaps?) to relax, that we would be fine.
Clearly I was wrong on that second point.
We still have to get to 11-9 in the B1G to feel confident about our chances.
February 27th, 2022 at 6:22 PM ^
Well Diabate was 5-9 -- not bad. And Dickinson had a lot of free throws which somewhat makeup for his 4-13 shooting. And there's no defense that can stop the kind of stepback 3s that Illinois was making.
From my perspective, Michigan's bench bigs (Johns and Williams) underperformed as compared to Coleman Hawkins for Illinois. Hawkins had 4 rebounds and 6 points, whereas our guys had 0 rebounds and 2 points. Not much of a difference, but if it had gone the other we would have won. In fairness to our guys, Hawkins is a really good backup big.
February 27th, 2022 at 5:27 PM ^
I was really impressed by the team, the effort, the comeback. Yes, you can point to a lot of flaws and mistakes. But honestly, six weeks ago, it never occurred to me that this team could hang with Illinois ... and straight-up compete with them. Great coaching job, great effort by the Maize and Blue.
In addition, yeah, our defense wasn't great, but Illinois is a hell of a team, and damn, it felt like they just couldn't miss most of the day. Plummer's threes, and Cockburn inside ... if either of them had even a normal day, let alone a poor one, we have a great chance to win this. Credit to the Illini for shooting lights-out, and full-on credit to Michigan for staying strong and hanging in. Sometimes the other team just doesn't miss.
Great basketball game.
February 27th, 2022 at 5:30 PM ^
Just to add ... if this team can play like this the rest of the way, I think we might actually not only get into the tournament, but maybe even win a game or two. No way a few weeks ago I thought we'd look like a good team, but I think we do, now. Not great, but the way this season started, I'll definitely take "good."
February 27th, 2022 at 5:30 PM ^
Tough loss. Gotta shake it off and get ready for Tuesday night.
I think the officials could be a bit tougher on Kofi's bullyball post charges, but yeah, just too many missed assignments on defense and blocking out.
February 27th, 2022 at 6:48 PM ^
Getting time for this avatar to dissolve.
Your boy has become a global pile of crap.
Cute run, that is beyond humor.
February 27th, 2022 at 8:06 PM ^
Has become?
The internet doesn’t matter, relax
February 27th, 2022 at 8:24 PM ^
our friend vlady has already expressed the sentiment to change his avatar, but that there is some glitch in the mgomatrix that prevents it. i'm sure he'll change it when the technology allows.
February 27th, 2022 at 9:26 PM ^
Co-signed.
February 28th, 2022 at 7:13 AM ^
In case you're serious, I think your take is surfacy. HP has often displayed a capacity for transgressive humor.
February 27th, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
Johns’ stat line is impressive.
February 27th, 2022 at 5:53 PM ^
Plus minus is the most important stat in the end...because you know, outscoring the opponent is the purpose of the game.
February 27th, 2022 at 6:28 PM ^
So we should bench Dickinson and Houstan because their plus minus was worse and play Johns more. I see your point. Man, I really think you have something here, pure genius. Johns was on the floor ten minutes and didn’t make a shot, get a rebound or an assist. He did manage to get two fouls and didn’t box out on the rebound slam by the Hawkins.
February 27th, 2022 at 8:13 PM ^
Johns looks like he wants to be done playing basketball. Its can be argued he was a better basketball player as a high school senior.
February 28th, 2022 at 12:10 AM ^
Team sports are not necessarily about piling up individual stats. It's about outscoring your opponents. It's not necessarily a bad thing to not have stats if you're doing your job like setting screens and playing good defense.
Maybe football is easier to understand? Take linebackers. You play your gap. If you funnel a RB into your teammate for short gains and never get a tackle and your team outscores the other team is that bad? If everyone was running after the ball trying to get stats instead of playing gap sound defense, you'd get killed.
All that matters is that the team outscores the opponents team. There's a lot of nuance and simply commenting on a guys scant stat line when he at least didn't use possessions inefficiently (it's far better to let your better offensive teammates use possessions than to take them away) shows a lack of understanding of that nuance.
He wasn't even guarding Hawkins on his tip dunk. And yes, he fouled Kofi twice when he was playing center. Both times, doing his job.
February 27th, 2022 at 5:58 PM ^
Most everyone wanted to believe they could make tourney. Most everyone thought this was an NIT team.
So be it.
February 27th, 2022 at 6:45 PM ^
Michigan's defense was bad for long stretches of this game but ignoring that Illinois won despite giving up 51% from the field and 85 points kind of downplays what felt like a weird game all around. UM deserved to lose but there were also some crucial missed plays and calls that seemed to mostly go the Illini's way.
I said this a week ago but this team has no margin for error and they've stayed true to that - they have to win 2 of their next 3 to feel comfortable making the tourney, as they've wasted a couple of opportunities to get breathing room. Life on the bubble and all that but it still sucks.
The freshmen have looked better the last half dozen games and that's a positive. Gotta beat state and then hope Iowa doesn't shoot themselves out of the building.
February 27th, 2022 at 7:09 PM ^
Certainly the defense left something to be desired and Illinois is the better team, but it also is tough to cover guards that carry the ball constantly when changing directions. Cockburn gets the American Tourister traveller award. Would like to see Houstan continue to improve his drive. Eli seemed a bit off today offensively.
February 28th, 2022 at 12:37 AM ^
Goog point about the carries. Curbello carried it every possession. That's how he swoops back and forth around Cockburn screening and re-screening three, four even fives times back and forth.
They only called it once. But even that is more than refs usually call that.
February 27th, 2022 at 7:16 PM ^
yep. one of the worst defensive efforts i've seen for UM. literally every single player that played sucked ass on the defensive end. very disappointing.
February 27th, 2022 at 9:31 PM ^
Still need three more wins counting the B1G tournament. 2 aint gonna cut it.
IOWA MSU & and first round win would get us in. This is the most plausible way.
February 28th, 2022 at 12:01 AM ^
Such a weird season, and team, and roster. When you go microscopic, so many factors look pretty good. Great center play. Solid PG/SG play from a very experienced returning senior. Transfer PG has been steady and a plus player for the latter half of the season. Two of the highly touted freshman have begun to contribute consistently after shaky starts. Two more freshman are chipping in.
But when you add it all together...it's just not that impressive? I'm just not honestly that surprised when we lose.
I'll be curious to see who stays, who enters the draft, and who transfers. I don't honestly see a savior for next year. Maybe someone makes a big jump, or we luck out in the transfer portal.
February 28th, 2022 at 7:15 AM ^
Actually, this game gave me some real optimism for next year. Players will improve. For much of this year it looked like this entire freshman class -- except maybe Diabate -- was going to be a disappointment, but it looks like Houstan is figuring things out, and think both Collins and Bufkin are starting to show flashes of real potential.
I don't know what players are coming in next year, but add a good point guard through the transfer window, as we've done the past two years, and I think we'll be good.
Any chance Dickinson stays one more year, or is everyone agreed he's gone?
February 28th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
Yeah, that's possible. I may be overly negative.
Re: Dickinson, seems like everyone agrees on these points:
- Dickinson has pretty consistently seemed set on jumping to the NBA at first opportunity
- He's somewhat addressed the things he can (outside shot, both hands in the post)
- That improvement might not be enough to measurably change his draft stock
The question the remains to be answered is whether NIL might be enough to keep him around for another year if he's projected to fall outside the draft, or if he cares more about starting his pro career even if it means a G league or overseas contract.
February 28th, 2022 at 12:03 PM ^
re: dickinson. of course we all wish him the best but he's luke garza II, and he can see garza playing with the pistons to see how it works out. i think he would benefit from another year of college where he hits the weights and does strength and agility training all day long. otherwise, he's going to europe to get paid and given putin's war, that might not be the best place to hang out in the foreseeable future.
February 28th, 2022 at 7:38 PM ^
Dickinson can play in college for the next 10 years and (still) not be ready to defend in the pros. He may be able to increase his strength and that two-inch vertical but he is never going to have the agility and the foot quickness to defend in the pro game-he simply is not. And this is an issue at Michigan right now too.
February 28th, 2022 at 4:32 PM ^
its been a awful,season, its just not meant to be ////I have little confidence they will beat MSU..its pretty stunning how far we have fallen
February 28th, 2022 at 7:29 PM ^
The defensive shortcomings of this team is rooted in the bald-faced reality that it simply does not have the horses to play man. And why the coaches continue to insist upon playing man, when you clearly cannot, is mind-numbing to me. There is not a single adequate man defender on this team. And then there is the matter of a totally inept 7 footer-on this end of the court. Any team with half a brain will attack a Hunter and Brooks/Jones combo and walk it into the basket.
Play a damn 1-3-1 zone and, at least, make the opposition work for a shot...and cut your loses.
February 28th, 2022 at 10:22 PM ^
a totally inept 7 footer
Seems overly harsh. Some of us watched Mark Donnel.
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