THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

The must wins were not won and so here we are, in the NIT. You do not have to pay attention to this but here's a preview anyway. Michigan draws Toledo, as it is the NIT's wont to limit travel in the first round. The Rockets were the MAC regular season champions but lost to Kent State in the conference tourney final, and now they're here.

Toledo had no at-large case despite a shiny record because of a questionable decision to schedule no high-major teams this season. Also they lost to UMKC, East Carolina, George Mason, and Marshall before embarking on their reign of terror in conference play. Michigan's track record against MAC foes is not encouraging. There were escapes against EMU and Ohio, the latter in overtime, and a dismal loss to CMU.

Michigan accepted a bid, but do they actually want to be here? Let's find out!

THE US

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THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

THE THEM

I hope you like points, because Toledo is Iowa on steroids. They have the #5 offense in America thanks to glorious shooting and vanishingly few turnovers, but their defense is unfathomably bad: 287th, because they get annihilated on the boards and bother approximately no shots. This is largely because they play five-out most of the time.

Kenpom designates JT Shumate as the center because someone has to get stuck in that bin; Shumate is 6'7", 210. IE: a wing. His DREB rate is 12. IE, a wing. Shumate is incredibly efficient at relatively high usage levels, shooting 61/41/87 on the season with a nonexistent turnover rate. He is a 99th percentile spot-up shooter and attacks closeouts mercilessly against lower-level competition; he is shooting 79% at the rim.

It would be nice if there was some sort of high major sanity check on the schedule; there is not. The best team Toledo played is UAB, which finished 78th in defensive efficiency; Shumate ripped them for 20 points on 13 shooting possessions. If your glancing at the Michigan roster and wondering who the hell is going to check this guy… well, yeah.

Fellow 6'7" wing Setric Millner Jr is basically 2 Shumate 2 Furious. He's not quite as efficient because his TO rate is 13 instead of 8 and he doesn't get to the basket as much as Shumate; on the flipside he rebounds more and is hitting 44% from three. He is still an excellent offensive player but his ORTG is merely an excellent 118 instead of Shumate's otherworldly 135.

Both of these near-clones are merely okay at pull-up jumpers and are lethal on catch and shoot opportunities, FWIW.

The guy setting up all the catch and shoot opportunities is point guard RayJ Dennis, the most spectacularly-named of the four Rockets with a standalone capital J in their first name. Dennis was solid a year ago after transferring in from Boise State and blew up this year. His usage shot up almost ten points as he got more efficient, shooting 53/37/77 and turning in an assist rate nearly triple his TO rate. The highlight film above shows an incredibly craft point guard who uses hesitations and pump fakes to get to the basket, where he's pretty great for a 6'2" guy creating almost all his own shots. He's 64% at the rim and 44% on other twos; that is a super high floor for a late clock possession. He's also one of three guys who's a threat to pull up from three.

The other two guards are also capable scorers, but someone has to get the usage short stick and it's them. Dante Maddox is another lethal three point shooter; he's hitting 45% from deep and actually has a slight majority of his attempts from outside the arc, unlike the rest of the starting five. He still fits into the Not Just A Shooter bin because he does have an appreciable number of twos that he hits at a 54% clip and he drives to get to the line a lot.

Ra'Heim Moss is the only starter who's eh from three, but he's okay enough there that he can penetrate. He's extremely efficient inside the arc, hitting 57% and getting to the line a bunch, whereupon he hits 80% of his FTs.

The Toledo bench:

• AJ Edu is an actual post at 6'10, 225, and he's literally the only guy Toledo puts on the floor who is not a three-point threat. He gets about a third of Toledo's minutes and you can bet that Dickinson will be on the floor for all of them. He is mostly a Backup Stiff but does have a sky-high FT rate and hits 71% from the line.
• Jumbo guard EJ Farmer gets about 40% of Toledo minutes and is a guy you might consider leaving on the perimeter; he's got a 38% hit rate from deep but on just 29 attempts after going 1/12 as a freshman. He is more of a slasher who uses his size to get up shots at the rim that fall at a solid rate due to the five-out nature of the offense making rim protection difficult.
• Andre Lorentsson is Just A Shooter hitting 37%. He is another 6'7-6'8 three point threat.

THE TEMPO FREE

Overall numbers:

All the drill-down stats are pretty and green. They hit 40% from three, which is second in the country, but don't actually take that many. They're 243rd. You could levy a criticism there except they're 26th at making twos and they get to the line and they hit free throws, so whatever. It's all working.

The defensive numbers are the flipside. They are awful at contesting all kinds of shots, awful on the boards, and these numbers would probably be close to rock bottom nationally if they'd played a high major schedule.

THE KEYS

Styles make fights. This will be a fascinating chess match for both coaches, as Toledo plainly cannot hope to check Hunter Dickinson without swarming him and Hunter Dickinson is going to have to run around chasing a 6'7" wing who's a deadly shooter. Will Michigan go zone? Will they try the Robbie Beran gambit and stick Dickinson on Moss?

This is a situation where Tarris Reed minutes at the five will be a major help defensively, and I'd expect Michigan to use some unusual rotations to make sure that Dickinson is out there whenever Edu is on the court.

On the other end of the floor, we've seen it all before. Expect Dickinson to get instantly doubled as soon as he touches the basketball. Hopefully Michigan can get after some of these guards and allow Dickinson some easy opportunities either on Kobe assists or acting as the roll man.

Vibe exorcism. I mean I don't want to be here and you don't want to be here and they probably don't want to be here but this tournament is an opportunity to maybe reset and get some footing and go into next year on a bit of an upswing. It could happen! Michigan could be like let's not be a very unwatchable basketball team!

Get anything from the four spot. Look at the defensive rebounding numbers. They're begging you to take their lunch money. Someone take it. Maybe hit a three, I don't know. Let's get crazy.

McDaniel one on one defense against RayJ. You don't have a backstop against this offense. RayJ is their highest usage player; he's not super athletic but he's a senior and has the moves.

Maybe whisper in some ears about a transfer? Anyone with remaining eligibility would look real nice as an important bench piece or even a starter.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 8.