THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#19 Michigan (6-4, 1-1 Big Ten) vs #135 Southern Utah (7-3, 2-0 Big Sky)	f
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	7 PM Eastern Saturday, 12/18
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -14 Torvik: M -14
TELEVISION	BTN

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan stumbles into the traditionally light portion of their December schedule at 6-4, in deep trouble in several areas and searching for answers. Southern Utah arrives as a buy game, and a slightly dangerous one. The Thunderbirds are coming off a 20-4 2020-21 that saw them win the Big Sky title by fractions because they went 12-2 instead of 12-3—welcome to the club—and rank just outside the Kenpom top 100. 

Southern Utah has only played two KP100 (or close enough) opponents, losing by 19 to #37 St. Mary's and in double overtime against Cal. They are probably not a threat to a top 20 team… but Michigan has not played like one this season.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Diabate returned, hooray.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Nice hair.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Here's a rarity: no one in the Thunderbird starting lineup transferred in this year. Senior Tevian Jones spent a couple of years as a deep bench option for Illinois before the 2020-21 season and senior John Knight spent his freshman year at Utah State; everyone else is a genuine high school recruit who has elected to stick around. And stick around they have: this is the fourth-most experienced team in the country. Literally one guy is not a senior.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IC73w3kb34

The aforementioned John Knight is the highest usage guy. He's a slasher who gets to the bucket relentlessly, where he's very solid at finishing (66%) and draws a lot of fouls. Knight is not much of a threat as a shooter—6/33 lifetime from 3 and 29% in the midrange this year—but is effective in his way. He sets his teammates up a lot at the cost of a TO rate that's hovered around 20 for much of his career and is at 25 in the early going.

This matchup is fairly concerning after Alonso Verge and Payton Willis got to the basket pretty much at will in the last two games. Knight is the variety of player who's given Michigan fits this year.

6'7" wing Tevian Jones is the guy who takes the most shots; he's a black hole who's struggling from behind the line (22% on 55 attempts this year) after a solid 35% a year ago. Jones is another iso/PNR dude who has vanishingly few of his baskets assisted. He's splitting attempts inside the line about evenly between the rim and jumpers and he is a dude who you should be letting take pull ups after he converted 23% on longer twos a year ago.

6'0" guard Tre Marin is Not Just A Shooter. He's been around forever and sports 47/38 career shooting that has barely budged as he's aged. He's got some combo guard to him but it'll be a priority to deny him open looks from the perimeter. He's the only guy on the team shooting acceptably from deep.

6'6" burlywing Maizen Fausett alternates between being shortish four and a miniscule center, where he provides some EJ Lidell vibes. He was terrific last year, shooting 62/35/82 from the floor with a top-50 TO rate and a top 250 OREB rate on reasonable usage. Fausett is a three-level scorer who scores well at the rim (67%), in the midrange (45%), and from three. He also creates a large number of his own shots.

Unfortunately there's no highlight reel for him on the internet, which is unfortunate because his Synergy numbers from last year are crazy: 90th percentile spotting up, a ton of usage off cuts, 98th percentile as a post-up guy, 99th percentile as a roll man. Competition level obviously impacts that a lot, and Fausett did struggle against Cal and St. Mary's earlier this year.

Center Jason Spurgin is the only non-senior in the lineup. He's a spindly Aussie who barely played as a freshman. In year two he's your average dunk-on-assists stiff; it's still too early to say much else about him, but he's 8/16 on free throws and has missed six of his seven career attempts from three. He brings a little bit in the OREB and blocks department against low-level competition.

The SU bench:

• There is no backup center. When Spurgin goes out, as he has for about half the games, Fausett gets post duty.
• Aanen Moody is a tiny-usage Just A Shooter.
• Harrison Butler is another burlywing but one without much impact on the boards or as a shotblocker; he goes to the rim a bunch but lacks the lift to be a good finisher once there.
• Marquis Moore is a wing who started as a sophomore at Detroit, shooting 42/35/85 as a slasher who was reasonably efficient. He's been a 10 MPG game at Southern Utah with little usage.

THE TEMPO FREE

Some news that would normally be good doesn't seem so good after Minnesota hosed Michigan while racking up a total of two assists: Southern Utah is close to dead last nationally in assist rate. This is a team that flings itself at the bucket and tries to play through contact. So a lot of stuff Michigan's not real good at guarding right now.

On the brighter side, SUU is shooting 29% from three and is getting up a ton of them. Some of that lack of shooting is probably transient since Jones is established as a reasonably good shooter. Some of it is baked in since they're playing a bunch of non-shooters.

THE KEYS

For the love of God stay in front of your guy? The Collins/Jones/Brooks trio is going to get a ton of guys trying to go downhill one on one or get shots off pick and roll. Confidence in outcomes here is low.

Crush them with your sizey-size. This team plays a center about half the time and a 6'6" guy about half the time. Michigan will have massive advantages in height and needs that to show up in OREB and various possessions where Diabate or Dickinson crunch people into festive dust. Somehow this team has defended its own boards absurdly well given their situation; if that continues this could be uncomfortable for a while.

Hit a shot. 18% from three doomed Michigan against Minnesota, and most of those were good looks. Hit a shot.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 14.