THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#15 Michigan (16-9, 7-7 Big Ten) at #29 Rutgers (18-8, 9-6)
WHERE	The RAC Piscataway, NJ
WHEN	7 pm Eastern Wednesday, Feb. 19th
THE LINE	Rutgers -2 (KenPom) Rutgers -2.1 (Torvik)
TELEVISION	BTN PBP: Brandon Gaudin Analyst: Dan Bonner

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

If you have any questions about these charts, Seth put together an explainer this week that's well worth a bookmark.

Isaiah Livers is a game-time decision with a twisted ankle. It sounds like he'll at least give it a try:

"It's definitely looking positive,” Livers said when asked on Big Ten Network’s “The B1G Show” Monday if he’ll be able to play at Rutgers on Wednesday.

“With my competitiveness, I want to get out there and play. I'm just going to wait for what the trainers say and coaches say. But to me, honestly, with how I'm walking around I'm kind of pain-free, so I should expect to be out there Wednesday for sure."

Hopefully he's near full strength, as this game has implications for both the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments. Michigan is 1.5 games behind Rutgers in the conference standings with a head-to-head win in hand. The Wolverines have moved up to a seven-seed on the Bracket Matrix; the Scarlet Knights are one of three Big Ten teams on the 8-line. As I detailed yesterday, the Big Ten is so compressed that we could see a considerable amount of movement in the next few weeks.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE LAST TIME

encouraging whether Livers suits up or not [Campredon]

Michigan outlasted Rutgers, 69-63, in a "home" game at Madison Square Garden that—as you can tell by the picture above—functioned more like an away game. Brandon Johns, starting for an injured Livers, scored a career-high 20 points and added seven rebounds, two assists, two steals, and a block. Rutgers dominated the possession battle, rebounding 46% of their misses to M's 19% and finishing +6 in turnovers, but they couldn't hit a shot inside or outside the arc. Geo Baker scored 3 points on 1-for-9 shooting, while Montez Mathis (17 points) was the only RU player to finish with more than ten.

Our coverage: Preview, recap:

At first it felt like the Curse of the Trident would continue as Pikiell's squad of not-great shooters started 5/8 on threes (and 3/20 on twos at that point). Players on both sides were jacking triples from the NBA line, but while Michigan's were all uncontested, they were able to force their opponents into taking increasingly bad ideas: Rutgers would finish 6/24 from behind the arc, Michigan 9/19.

Postgame podcast. Game column:

Pupate! Brandon Johns built on his strong performance against Nebraska with 20 points on 15 shot equivalents, a couple of OREBs, a couple of assists, a block, and two steals against just one turnover. That's every column in the box score.

Johns was the recipient of various early kicks to the corner; in contrast to his earlier hesitation he went up in rhythm every time, finishing 4/7 from deep. His day would have been downright spectacular if he hadn't forced the issue in semi-transition twice in the waning minutes (or if he'd finished).

A breakdown of Franz Wagner's performance comprises the final section of this post.

THE THEM

Michigan last played Rutgers less than three weeks ago, so refer to the first preview for more detail on personnel. The Scarlet Knights have played to expectation since, going 2-2 with home victories over Northwestern (albeit in overtime after needing a big comeback) and Illinois and road losses at Maryland and Ohio State. As you'll undoubtedly hear on the broadcast, Rutgers has yet to lose at the RAC this season, though #16 Seton Hall was their biggest non-conference test and they've avoided hosting Maryland, Michigan State, and Ohio State.

Unabashed gunner Geo Baker, who's capable of shooting Rutgers into or out of any game, is back in the starting lineup. He's replaced Caleb McConnell, who hit the bench after scoring zero points in 16 minutes against the Buckeyes.

Though he did well as a scorer in the first game, Montez Mathis is mostly out there for his defense, and his shooting numbers have been ugly. Burly wings Ron Harper Jr., a strong finisher with a passable outside shot, and Akwasi Yeboah, a good outside shooter and decent scorer off the dribble who draws a lot of contact, are the primary scoring threats beyond Baker.

There's also backup guard Jacob Young, who's going to take a lot of shots when he's out there regardless of whether they're falling. He generally goes a million miles an hour towards the basket. He almost always goes left (via Synergy, Big Ten games only):

Being able to go more than one direction is important: Young has an ORating below 80 against top-100 competition. While he occasionally puts up big numbers, it usually takes a lot of shots and a few turnovers to get there; his best games haven't correlated to wins unless Rutgers was playing Nebraska.

6'11", 255-pound sophomore Myles Johnson has been one of the Big Ten's better defensive centers. He grades out in the 90th percentile as an on-ball defender on Synergy, holding his mark to an eFG% of only 32.7%, and he does excellent work as a rim protector and rebounder without getting into foul trouble. He doesn't create much for himself on offense but he's good at finishing around the hoop off feeds from his teammates and offensive rebounds. His backup, Shaq Carter, is smaller and not nearly as effective on either end of the floor.

The other backup to watch is 6'6" freshman wing Paul Mulcahy, who rarely uses possessions and turns it over too much but also hits 63% of his shots when he gets free inside the arc.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats:

Four Factors explanation

As the first matchup showed in the extreme, Rutgers relies on offensive rebounding and bullying teams inside to overcome poor shooting from beyond the arc and at the free-throw line. That makes for a mediocre offense; they rank eighth in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency.

They get after it on defense, ranking third in the conference. They're particularly good at protecting the rim, which makes sense—this team is huge. They allow a high number of three-point attempts and assisted field goals, so hopefully Michigan can be patient and pick this defense apart.

THE KEYS

Box out. I don't think Michigan is going to get away with going -20 in offensive rebounding margin at the RAC even if Rutgers is skewing the raw numbers by missing a lot of shots. The Wolverines have really turned it around on the boards; in the four games since allowing RU to pull down 46% of their misses, they've allowed offensive rebound rates of 14, 26, 12, and 21. Keep that up and Michigan's shooting can put them over the top.

Lock down Geo. When Baker gets going, Rutgers is really tough to beat, but high-level teams have suffocated him; against top-50 competition his ORating is a brutal 75.8 and he's shooting 4/28 on twos and 6/22 on threes. Michigan has a few different options to throw at Baker; I like making Eli Brooks the primary defender on him given how well he's functioned in that role lately and the related freeing up of Zavier Simpson to pour more of his energy into running the offense.

Make your threes. They'll be there. Brandon Johns, in particular, made Rutgers pay for leaving him open in the corner the first time around. Now Livers should be out there to help make it rain. It's tough to finish over Johnson on the interior, so softening up the defense with some three-pointers is going to be necessary.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Rutgers by 2.

The RAC has mystical, offense-killing powers this season.