THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#18 Michigan (5-3) vs #102 Nebraska (4-2)
WHERE	Ann Arbor Elder Law Arena Lincoln, NE
WHEN	7 PM Eastern
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -7 Torvik: M -4
TELEVISION	ESPN2

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan is coming off an important win against San Diego State after three losses in their first three games against high-major competition, and now attention turns to the annual December conference play prologue. The schedule makers have done Michigan a favor by breaking them in as gently as possible with games against two of the four teams in the league that look real, real bad. Nebrasketball is up first, and then a Minnesota team with exactly one name you've heard of before… maybe.

But, anyway, Nebraska. The Cornhuskers picked up Arizona State transfer Alonszo Verge, added a five-star freshman wing in Bryce McGowens, and also got a guy from Japan to replace Thorir Thorbjarnsson as their annual "he's from where?!" dude. The Cornhuskers were supposed to be kind of interesting as a result, but they've lost to everyone ranked inside the Kenpom top 200 they've played—although they did take NC State to 4 OTs and currently sit 102nd in those same rankings. They're coming off a 13-point loss to Indiana at Assembly Hall.

One major factor in this lack of interesting-ness: Trey McGowens broke his foot against Creighton and has been out. He was using a scooter to get in the vague area of a scuffle against NC State a week ago; he is not expected to play.

Maybe they'll be interesting next year. I will never give up on Interesting Nebraska.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

We do not expect Moussa Diabate to play after Juwan Howard said he "pray[s] that he gets healthy" and "there's no rush to get him back."

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Note that there are four pretty extreme Just A Shooters on this roster: Tominaga, Mayen, Wilcher, and Breidenbach.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Remember Tim Miles? Well, here's Tim Miles because we don't have a Lat Mayen photo [Fuller]

The aforementioned Alonso Verge is this year's giant-usage chucker in Lincoln. Trapped in Bobby Hurley's circus offense* last year he, along with everyone else on the team, was tasked with mindlessly hurtling towards the basket to put up whatever junk ensued. Verge shot under 50% at the basket, took a bunch of long twos he canned at a 34% clip, and never ever saw any of his shots inside the arc assisted. That added up to a 41% clip inside the arc, where he took over two-thirds of his shots. He's a career 31% three-point shooter on relatively limited volume.

Verge did maintain a pretty good assist rate and TO rate considering the Neanderthal ball he was forced to play, and in Lincoln his assist rate has shot up into the 40s—he's currently sixth in the country—without a similar increase in TO rate. That came to a screeching halt against Indiana, though, when he had three assists against six turnovers.

Verge's underlying numbers have barely budged: he will have the ball and run a bunch of pick and roll and put up a bunch of questionable shots. Drop coverage all day every day on this guy.

Keisei Tominaga is just a shooter. He's a JUCO transfer who hit a whopping 48% of his 217 attempts last year. At that level he was also a guy who would venture inside the arc profitably, but that's unlikely to persist. He's 1/5 from two in games against top 200 Kenpom foes. Early returns on the shooting are okay: he's hitting 37% on 41 attempts. He does almost nothing else aside from get some steals. Assist rate? 3. TO rate? 4. DREB rate? 5. This person may phase out of reality when not shooting the ball.

Bryce McGowens is the biggest recruit in the history of Nebrasketball, a five-star lured to Lincoln by the promise of playing with his brother. The foot injury is a bummer for those guys, I imagine.

McGowens is a slashing wing who will be a handful for Caleb Houstan:

…elite athlete who uses his quickness and speed to get where he wants on the floor. He’s agile and can implement change of speed bursts on the dime, which allows him to create from the wing. … thrives as a playmaker and has great vision as a scoring guard. …  elite ball handler, an attribute that combined with his length makes him an extremely tough player to guard. He’s able to get around the opposition at-will on the wing and once he’s in the lane, he’s an elite finisher on all three levels.

The elite finishing has not shown up on all three levels just yet. He's 10/41 from three and 6/20 on longer twos. He's shooting pretty well at the rim (61%) for a guy making most of his own shots on high volume but he's just 13/34 from two against the three KP100 teams they've played. Indiana put him in a dumpster; he racked up a 49 ORTG on 27% usage. The playmaking has also not shown up—all but one of his assists has been against tomato cans, and even with the tomato cans he's not really moving the needle on assist rate.

Right now he's a guy who wants to get to the rim and put the ball up and will do so through you or over you, and will also chuck up some questionable shots. One thing McGowens has done immediately is get to the line a bunch and convert once there at 84%. He's not much of a stat-sheet guy outside of scoring except for defensive rebounds.

 

 

 

Spindly power forward Lat Mayen is a starter in name only—he does start but only gets about 15 minutes a game. Last year he had Just A Shooter tendencies, hitting 36% from deep, but had a TO rate near 20 and did chip in on the defensive boards. This year it looks like more of the same except he's off to a rough start from behind the arc.

 

Center Derrick Walker returns after playing about 12 MPG for the Cornhuskers last year. He is a classic low-usage big who doesn't do much other than dunk and get putbacks. He has two unassisted buckets at the rim this year. He's done that quite a bit so far this year, and that's lasted even into the two most recent games against high majors, where he's 9/13 from the floor.

Walker is not an elite vertical athlete and is only 6'9" so he's unlikely to do much to check Hunter Dickinson by himself; expect doubles to keep coming ferociously until such time as Michigan proves they can deal with them more effectively than they have so far this year.

The Nebraska bench:

• Xavier transfer CJ Wilcher is a 6'5" wing currently hitting 58/33 over the course of his career. Like a lot of other Nebraska players his profile is amazingly devoid of, like, stuff: he has 10 career FTAs, an assist rate of 10, and negligible rebounding contributions. He's playing quite a bit—he's really the fifth starter by MPG, not Mayen—but like Mayen he's a guy who's just a shooter a questionable clip with a high turnover rate.
• Kobe Webster backs up the point and plays off ball some.
• Eduardo Andre and Wilhelm Breidenbach are the backup bigs. Both are freshmen, Andre a redshirt, and have basically no stats worth going over. Breidenbach believes he can shoot threes even though early evidence is against him. He was just outside the top 100 as a recruit, which counts as a pretty big get for Nebraska.

*[My dude turned that Josh Christopher coup into a 7-10 Pac-12 record and no tourney bid. After Christopher left for the NBA, Verge and Remy Martin transferred. ASU is currently 3-6 with a 51-29 loss to Washington State. Not a typo. He's Lorenzo Romar part two.]

THE TEMPO FREE

Nebraska cannot rebound and cannot shoot:

They're hitting 27% from three this season. They do excel at taking care of the ball largely because their top-three shot takers have excellent ball security. There are tradeoffs there; this is another team that wants to go really fast (9th in offensive tempo); unlike North Carolina they're not laden with athletes who will beat you down the floor.

Nebraska is currently giving up buckets of threes, FWIW.

THE KEYS

Let Frankie cook. Frankie Collins was +20 against SDSU and maaaan did it feel like it. The quickness upgrade he provided was a massive difference for the offense, and it seems like we're rapidly approaching the point where he supplants Devante' Jones as the starting point guard. It's rough having a point guard who's not much of a shooter and also can't breach the lane with an consistency. One of those you can get away with (see: Zavier Simpson). Two and you're in trouble.

Grit it out on the boards. Moussa Diabate is likely unavailable and Michigan's two main options at the four are scuffling badly. Can't play well? Try playing like a maniac instead. This is a team that is extremely vulnerable on the defensive boards because everyone except the center is a spindly beanpole. Brandon Johns grabbing OREBs and dunking on people may be the tonic he needs—and one Michigan needs as they face an extended period without Diabate.

Can Houstan stick with McGowens? Two freshman five stars go head to head, and this looks like a potential issue for Michigan what with Houstan kind of seeming like a stretch four, not a wing, and McGowens being a slender guy with elite quickness at 6'7". Nobody else on the roster seems like a good bet to slow McGowens down with Diabate out, so this matchup is going to be one Michigan has to live with.

Can Dickinson keep shooting threes? A major development in the SDSU game: Dickinson hitting 3/3 from deep. If that continues the prospect of Dickinson dragging bigs out to him combines with his passing to entice.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.