THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Yet another pivotal game in Michigan's Quest To Eke Into The Tournament comes against top-20 Kenpom foe Iowa in Carver-Hawkeye, which has been a house of horrors for better Michigan teams than this one. Iowa is Iowa: the #4 offense in the country, the #121 defense.

Iowa's resume is a lot thinner than their Kenpom profile. Their nonconference schedule was exceptionally weak—329th per Kenpom—and they picked up a 20-point loss at Iowa State on the way. Their best nonconference wins are against a very bad version of Virginia and against Utah State, which is just outside the Kenpom top 50. In the league they've beaten Indiana at home and no one else of note. Their other league wins are against Maryland(2x), Minnesota(2x), Penn State, and Nebraska. They've lost at Rutgers and Penn State, narrowly.

This looks like a game Michigan can get, but the pretty numbers and game location means Kenpom gives Michigan just a 30% shot. Would be a big one to pick up.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

No changes.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Toussaint has started for most of the season but Perkins drew into the lineup three games ago, which continues to be irritating for people trying to put together graphics— especially since Perkins didn't get even 20 minutes in any of his start-type substances.

THE THEM

anger as art [Campredon]

North Dakota transfer Filip Rebraca starts at C and gets a bare majority of minutes. Although he shot decently (37% on 41 attempts) from three last year at Iowa he is strictly a post guy with a total of six jumpers attempted on the year, and he's pretty eh there. He shoots 46% on his post-up possessions. He does do work moving as a cutter and is maintaining a 59% clip from two even in the tougher environs of Big Ten play, but that's at 13% usage. He's opportunistic, you can say.

Rebraca does excel as a post defender statistically, which is odd since he's not that big (6'9, 230) and, you know, Iowa defense things. A quick glance at games against Purdue, Illinois, and Indiana indicates that might be fairly real since no one has obliterated Rebraca except TJD. He is not much of a rim protector with a 2.2 block rate in Big Ten play.

At the four is Keegan Murray, a KPOY contender with absurd stats. He makes the Kenpom leaderboard in every statistical category tracked except assists, and why pass the ball when you're shooting 65/37 on the season with a top 20 TO rate nationally? His assist rate of eight is probably too high. As the video above asserts, Murray is incredibly diverse. He obliterates foes on post ups, averaging 1.37 PPP(!!!) on them. He's a 87th percentile spot-up shooter. He gets putbacks. He's incredible in transition, where he has an eFG of 74%. He's good in isolation, good as a roll guy, and concentrates his shots at the rim and from the three point line.

Obviously having Good Moussa for this game will be huge for Michigan. Diabate is hypothetically one of the few players in America who has the physical ability to match up with Murray and force him into an ugly game, but too often this year Diabate's defensive potential has been just that—potential. The good news is that progress is evident. He did an excellent job forcing EJ Liddell into contested fadeaways; Liddell just made them. If he can do that with Murray, or heavily contest post-ups in ways that most can't, Michigan will have an avenue into this game even on the road.

Murray is not a good defender, FWIW, and Diabate could do some work on the other end.

Patrick McCaffrey has recovered from a bout with cancer two years later and starts at the three. McCaffrey is a rangy 6'9" stick who's shooting 47/32 with most of that usage inside the line. His main asset statistically is a ludicrously low TO rate, which he accomplishes despite doing a bit of ball-handling/PNR initiation.  Most of the stuff he initiates in the halfcourt results in a contested situation with iffy efficiency.

Bohannon played against these guys [Campredon]

Jordan Bohannon is still Jordan Bohannon. If you missed any of his five previous seasons—the Kenpom MVP of Bohannon's first game against Michigan was DJ Wilson—he's a sniper who runs around like his hair is on fire. This edition has dumped all of the playmaking and now exclusively functions as an off-ball spot up threat. Yep: Just A Shooter. He's hitting 38% from three and 39% from two. His assist rate has more than halved as Iowa runs almost all of its offensive initiation through the point guard.

Bohannon has no conscience and will shoot from the logo.

That is Joe Toussaint, who I'm going to address as a starter because he's been one most of the year and still got more minutes than Perkins in the most recent game. Whether it's Toussaint or Perkins, the point guard can't shoot. As anyone familiar with the Zavier Simpson years can tell you, this means the PG has to initiate everything or the offense plays 4 v 5. For the lightning-quick Toussaint this has resulted in a lot of assists… and a lot of turnovers, and 44% shooting from two in Big Ten play.

Toussaint is a top-ten steals guy nationally, FWIW, and initiates a bunch of Iowa transition play as a result.

The bench:

• Keegan's twin brother Kris Murray is also very good and should probably be starting over McCaffrey.
• Meanwhile in confusing situations, Connor McCaffrey gets a third of Iowa minutes. He's always been a disaster inside the line and this year he's morphed into his final form, which is a Just A Shooter hitting 25%. As you'd expect, his usage is rock-bottom.
• Tony Perkins and Aaron Ulis are both big guards who can't shoot and function mostly as defensive stoppers in about 40% of Iowa minutes apiece. Perkins is shooting 48/24; Ulis a hideous 33/36 with almost all of his shots inside the line. Ulis does operate as a backup point and will set up some teammates.
• Freshman wing Payton Sandfort gets 10 MPG and is an effective outside shooter at 38%; he ventures inside the line some but it's too early to draw any conclusions. He was well outside the top 100 as a recruit.
• Sophomore seven-footer Josh Ogundele may get a handful of minutes. When Rebraca sits Iowa almost always uses a Murray as their nominal five, usually Keegan.

THE TEMPO FREE

The Big Ten numbers now make more sense (especially given the Iowa noncon schedule) so these are out of 14:

Iowa only plays a true center half the time, and he's barely bigger than Murray, so the rebounding numbers are as expected. Also those TO numbers and FTAs allowed are part and parcel since Iowa gambles for steals a lot. They have the top steal rate in the conference and are just outside the top 50 nationally.

Iowa is the sixth-fastest team nationally; in conference play they give up an average number of threes that go down at a good rate. They give up more looks at the rim than anyone else in the conference by four full points and force fewer other twos by the same rate.

THE KEYS

this one might have gone in since Brooks shot it [Campredon]

Hit shots. The end. Michigan could not have gotten better looks against Ohio State. They more than doubled up OSU in looks at the rim (28 vs 12) and got tons of open threes. Michigan hit barely over 50% at the rim and went 4/17 from three. L. Whether that was four games in seven days catching up with their legs, the natural expression of a team that looks completely different from one game to the next, or just some randomness does not matter. They are playing Iowa. They will get shots. Hit them and win.

Moussa vs KPOY candidate part two. As mentioned above, the individual Keegan Murray/Moussa Diabate matchup is likely to swing the game. Murray does not have the refined midrange game that Liddell used as an effective backup plan but is extremely effective at bullying guys down low and going at them off the dribble from the perimeter; Moussa will be challenged to not get backed down or driven by in the same matchup. On the other end, Murray does not D-up particularly well and Diabate has been getting free for dunks with Dickinson lifting opposing bigs from the paint.

The other part of this is what does Michigan do when Rebraca goes to the bench and Murray plays the five. Dickinson can't play against Murray, so your choices are zone versus Iowa—yikes—or one of those awkward mismatch things where roll out Dickinson against… Patrick McCaffrey? Yeah, I guess so.

Rebounding vs transition. Iowa is weak on the defensive boards, which gives Michigan an incentive to crash them. Iowa gets out in transition a ton and is excellent there, giving Michigan an incentive to sit back. I can't imagine Michigan will do the latter, so every miss from Michigan will be a bit of a fulcrum moment where there's the potential for an easy opportunity at either end.

This could be a way Michigan wins this game since they've had OREB rates at or around 40 in four of their last six, and one of the exceptions was against Purdue and Zach Edey.

Legs? Michigan's had a long layoff since their most recent outing; hopefully the clunker against OSU was at least in part because of that.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Iowa by 6.