Note: Wear White. Or don't. I have my doubts that this is going to work.

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#72 Michigan (7-10, 2-4 B10) vs #12 Illinois (12-4, 3-2 B10)
WHERE	Crisler Center Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	8:30 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: ILL-5 Torvik: ILL-4
TELEVISION	FS1 (streaming link)

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan Basketball won a game, and football promptly lost JJ McCarthy to the NFL and Amorion Walker to Ole Miss (do not check those timelines). Such is the vibe around the hoops program, and has been so ever since Michigan's academic tweeds nixed Terrence Shannon's transfer. Illinois had no such compunctions about the hit to their academic reputation, but had as much trouble filling the other four starting roles with Players as Michigan did of finding someone to fill Shannon's shoes. The ridiculous but true narrative of last season for both squads was how unfortunate it was that they couldn't just combine forces.

The other narrative is Juwan Howard hasn't beaten Brad Underwood in six tries. Yes, of course they've come close; haven't you been watching?

Shannon returned to Champaign this year, and was off to a Kenpom PoY-type season until a rape allegation from a trip to Lawrence, KS, upended his season. Illinois has suspended him indefinitely while the case plays out, which is likely to take until the summer. Shannon vociferously denies the allegations, and sued his university over their decision to sit him. Given the publicly available information, only a complete partisan or a complete fool would opine on the case.

The only fact is Illinois has to play without one of the best players in college basketball, and 2023-'24 Michigan has another opportunity—after squandering the same at Oregon, versus Florida, and when hosting McNeese State, to get a major on-paper resume win on the cheap.

The Shannon-less and still PG-less Illini have been better than you'd expect. They routed Northwestern at home, were competitive at Purdue, beat a surging Michigan State. Last weekend they lost to Maryland at home, with slashing PG Jahmir Young and C Julian Reese accounting for 65 of their 76 points.

Michigan's victory over Ohio State seemed less repeatable. In the presence of the reunited Fab Five, the Wolverines hit 12/23 of their threes (Terrence Williams was 5/5), while the Buckeyes went 3/25. Unless you believe in the hoops-football juju, it was an oasis of good feels amidst a miserable season. On a non-holiday Thursday 8:30 game versus a non-rival and at most two Fabs in the building, Crisler's probably not going to be as alive. Which is unfortunate, because we've got some dudes worth rooting for on that court, and the darkest part of winter ahead.

[Hit THE JUMP for a PG who’s a center, wings who are PGs, and guys who are not Terrence Shannon.]

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Tray Jackson suffered a broken nose as well as a concussion at Penn State, and may require surgery, so he's still out. Jace Howard returned to the lineup versus Ohio State. Also they're at home so Dug is in the lineup; Howard clarified that it's not necessarily a six-away game suspension. Jaelin Llewellyn is still ginger; he played 1 minute vs OSU as Howard explained they're saving the only other PG on the roster for when Dug isn't available.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

Domask's usage has been way up since Shannon went out. Nobody's really a "PG" on this team.

THE THEM

This is what passes for a center. [Campredon]

C Coleman Hawkins (above) is emphatically Not Kofi Cockburn, and really shouldn't be playing the five, but that's what Underwood's forced to deal with since last year's Baylor transfer Dain Dainja (more on him later) hasn't really panned out. A beanpole who's willing to shoot over a favorable matchup, Hawkins's length is sufficiently center-like to make post entries a hassle and block more shots than his body type would suggest. He's also a far better finisher at the rim than he's credited for; when they can find him in transition it's a bucket.

Hawkins doesn't post—not with that size—and only shoots jumpers inside the arc when they're out of options. Ideally this is a situation where Michigan explore the switching defense they were supposed to develop this season, since both Reed and Nkamhoua, on paper, should be able to keep Hawkins in check.

PF Quincy Guerrier is another stretch big with a big game in the paint. The Oregon transfer (and Syracuse before that) is a fantastic finisher who knows how to draw contact and bully smaller players on the boards, though his offensive rebounding has come down with the Illini. He's also a smooth shooter that can set up his own triples. He's 16/54 this year and 32% lifetime, but that's because a lot of those attempts are contested or off the dribble.

Guerrier plays with a high motor and was close to a top-50 prospect out of high school, though you couldn't tell from his defense, where he's a little stiff, especially in man. The other knock on Guerrier throughout his career is he's more likely to look for a bucket than a teammate, which leads to a lot of shoddy long two's.

Most of Shannon's missing usage has gone to fellow wing-sized guard-type Marcus Domask, a four-year starter for Southern Illinois whose transition has been successful in all areas except assist rate (down from 26 to 18) and threes (34% career, 24% this year). He's not the defender that Shannon was, but Domask is a skilled offensive player who can get to the rim or stay effective shooting jumpers, which gives Illinois possessions a high ceiling. He also sees the floor well enough to serve as point forward on a team that doesn't have a point guard.

Domask is the sneaky reason Illinois has been a borderline top-ten team this season, and THE reason they've managed to stay so without Terrence Shannon.

SF Luke Goode missed most of last season and returned to be an effective three-and-D guy. This year he's an extreme Just-a-Shooter who saves his work for contesting shots. He also has a weird tendency to get elbowed in the face. Like we even have a photo of it.

Even his teammates are in on it. [Campredon]

"PG" Ty Rogers is a Michigan native that Michigan was looking at to be a defensive two. At Illinois he's managed to parlay that into a starting job despite a complete inability to shoot and a scorching turnover rate (26) against teams with a pulse. The tradeoff, offensively at least, is a burlyguard who can back down a Dug type and kick it out to any of the four arc threats he plays with, or just bully his way to the rim himself. Rodgers was 56% from two last year with this strategy; this season defenses have been better about keeping him out of the paint. When he's got eight inches on the guy defending him, theoretically runners and hook shots aren't that bad of an idea, but via Synergy he's getting 0.67 and 0.75 PPA on them this year.

The tradeoff defensively is manifest. Synergy numbers:

Assist merchants like AJ Hoggard and Boo Buie have struggled to get anything going on Rodgers. Slashers have had more success.

The Bench

Is short.

• SG Justin Harmon was a 31% shooter in two years at Utah Valley but has raised that 11 points now that the burden of offense isn't on his shoulders. He does tend to forget where he is however, and often goes for bad twos when there were better options on the court. Defensively he's a WAC guy whose foul rate. He's getting 20-30 mpg with Shannon out, which has exposed those defensive weaknesses, but Harmon at his peak is a strong scorer who can come off the bench with good energy, and turn around a game.
• Finally we get to C Dain Dainja, the awesomely named beefy 6’9”/270 former Baylor Bear. He is what that description makes him out to be: a low-post big who does his work at the rim, with a lot of that work pulling rebounds off of it. He isn’t a great rim protector or free throw shooter, and isn’t switchable. Michigan should try to get Nkhamhoua minutes at the five when Dainja’s out there.

THE TEMPO FREE

Four factors:

Conference-only four factors. They only faced Rutgers in-conference before losing Shannon so differences are a rough Shannon/no Shannon split, not that there are any differences, really.

Which is pretty incredible.

THE KEYS

Go high when they go low. Dainja minutes should be met with five shooters because he falls apart the minute you make him do anything away from the rim.

Can we please switch? I know this year’s defense is a dead letter but it’s pointless to go into basketball games with a plan of Give Up All the Points. So let’s try the thing they theoretically should be good at versus the team that theoretically would be perfect to try it on.

No, seriously, switch. Speaking of futility: saying the same thing twice.

Dug blow-bys. PGs who want to bowling ball around and set up teammates haven’t fared well against Illinois, but the slicer-dicers have been able to take advantage of the iffy rim protection and all-arms perimeter defense. Where does Dug fall in that spectrum? Meep meep.

Tarris Reed breakout. Haha while I’m asking him to switch let’s also ask him to carry more of the offensive load, because that’s what you do when you have a PF trying to play center.

Keep telling the Fabs we’re gonna put the banners back any day. The atmosphere when they’re together is different. I know they have “jobs” and “lives” and “don’t all live in town” and “can’t spend every day going to their friend’s basketball games” but do you guys want this to work or not?

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Illinois by 5.