THE ESSENTIALS

WELL THEY TALKED ME INTO IT

We're doing a watchalong for this one. Please do not tell the police anything I say about officiating live.

THE OVERVIEW

Well, this is going to go one of two ways: either Terrence Shannon is going off for 30 and Michigan loses and ends up in the NIT, or Michigan more or less punches their ticket to the NCAA tournament.

Illinois is a weird team having a weird year that includes a wins over Kenpom #2 UCLA and #10 Texas… and an 10-8 record in the Big Ten with losses to Penn State (twice), Northwestern, and an Ohio State team in complete free-fall. Their five star point guard guy they pirated from Kentucky hit the bricks after 13 games. They're huge. Vast. Ent-like. There is absolutely nothing resembling a point guard anymore, and the only guy sort of shaped like one is out for this game. I have confirmed that their starting center is named Dain Dainja and his last name is pronounced like a really cool rapper guy would say "danger!" So they've got that going for them.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

We're expecting Howard and Williams back; we've deployed the cyan for Williams on offense since he's down to a 90 ORTG. McDaniel gets out of the cyan and has gone from banana peel to lunchbucket.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

THE THEM

We're going to assume that Matthew Mayer is available and that Jayden Epps is not, FWIW.

This team doesn't have Kofi Cockburn anymore but they've decided to split his hugeness across the rest of the roster. This team is giant, 18th in average height. Kenpom lists three guys 6'9" or taller as starters.

Dain Dainja is the center and is a beefy 6'9", 270. Dainja transferred in from Baylor after barely playing as a freshman; he was just inside the composite top 100 as a recruit. Dainja is exactly what you'd expect him to be: a low-post big who does all his work around the rim. Synergy has him as a 70th percentile post scorer and that's a large plurality of his shot attempts. He's not much of a rim protector, doesn't shoot jumpers, hits 50% at the line, and is not very switchable. We need some sort of "Just A Shooter" equivalent for these Derrick Nix guys who are reasonably skilled in the post and die a fiery death when asked to do anything outside the paint.

Dainja grades out pretty well as a post defender, FWIW. He only plays 20 minutes a game, likely because of conditioning issues. This might be a problem for Illinois.

That's because there isn't really a backup 5. Coleman Hawkins is the closest thing available and he's still a beanpole at 6'10", 225. He, too, grades out well as a post defender even after the catch but one dollar says that Illinois will have to double when Dainja is out of the game unless Hawkins is able to front Michigan out of post entries, which is a reasonable possibility. Hawkins is one of the ganglier guys in the Big Ten.

Offensively, Hawkins is tremendous around the rim, where his size makes him an excellent play finisher. He does not post and relies heavily on transition to keep his efficiency up. He does not shoot jumpers inside the arc and is just 28% outside of it, so you can be relatively relaxed about giving him space. He's shooting 61% on twos in Big Ten play; this might be a situation where Tarris Reed is a difference-maker since he can match Hawkins's size and agility.

Matthew Mayer, caffeine enthusiast and fellow Baylor transfer, is almost physically identical to Hawkins. He's more perimeter-oriented than Hawkins; he's shooting 53/36/76 on the season and is more likely to take a three than a two, though when he does drive he gets to the line quite a bit. He contributes a lot of defensive rebounding and shotblocking for a guy who's playing the three about half the time; he's a high-usage inside-outside threat. Like Hawkins, if he goes inside the line he is going to the rim; he is not going to pull up inside the arc.

And… sigh. Athletic, 6'6" wing Terrence Shannon Jr is a high-volume slasher with 27% usage who acts as as primary playmaker on a team without much ball-handling. He's shooting 53/33/79 on the season and gets to the line a ton. He's a defensive stopper on the wing and if you just slot him into the four spot on Michigan's roster your favorite team is nowhere near the bubble.

BUT ANYWAY. Shannon's the two on this team and will likely draw Kobe Bufkin on both ends, especially since Bufkin has been on a tear for the entire month of February. If Bufkin can keep up the efficiency against this dude it's time to find the NBA scouts in the building and tranquilize them until September.

Finally, Illinois does not have good options to replace Epps. The only guy under 6'6" who has played a minute is freshman Sencire Harris, who started for seven games in the middle of the season before being displaced by Epps. We'll stick him in here. Harris was the #113 player in last year's composite and comes in at a Freshman Caris-esque 6'4", 160. Harris with a TO rate near 20 and an assist rate barely out of single digits, you can't really call Harris a point guard. Neither can you  call him a shooter: he's 4/17 on FTs this year and while he's hitting 30% of 37 threes on the season, seven of his makes came against KP300+ teams; he's 2/14 in the league.

Harris does pick up a lot of steals and is decent at getting to the rim, but he converts like you'd expect a 160-pound freshman to convert.

The Illinois bench now that Harris is no longer part of it:

• RJ Melendez is a low-usage 6'7" wing who's not much of an outside shooter and is sort of like every other tall wing person on this roster.
• Ty Rodgers is a freshman from Saginaw who Michigan was looking at. He's reputed to be a defensive ace, something this preview cannot confirm or disconfirm. He's probably pretty good because he plays despite being unable to shoot at all. He's hitting 36% at the line and virtually all his usage is off cuts or putbacks. He's taken just two jumpers this year.
• Luke Goode missed most of the season with a foot injury before returning about three weeks ago. He's Just A Shooter who hit 37% last year.

THE TEMPO FREE

Conference numbers:

This is a team without a point guard and the numbers veritably scream it. They're 13th in assist rate, third in threes taken, and dead last in 3P%. This is a team that frequently cannot find a shot and has to jack up a contested three. On the other hand, they're first in the conference at making twos, because they are giant and crash the boards.

Defensively their block rate is tops in the conference and they prevent assists and threes extremely well. It's hard to get good looks up against the forest of hands and the elite wing defender… goddammit, admissions.

THE KEYS

Bufkin acid test time. Kobe Bufkin has been on fire for a month, finally paying off all the people who swore up and down his shooting motion would lead to results from deep. He's also getting to the rim and setting up his teammates. His ORTG has been 123 or better in six of the last eight and the other two performances were 107 and 113. That's All Big Ten kind of stuff. Now: Terrence Shannon. Have fun storming the castle.

DREB come to Jesus acid test. We talked this morning on WTKA about how Michigan pounded MSU on the boards, which never happens, immediately after a humiliating performance against Wisconsin. Well, here is a final exam. Jett Howard in particular needs to box out a very large three.

Can Dickinson be a difference maker? Previous Illinois games featured Cockburn and Illinois never needed a double team. Here it seems unlikely that Hawkins is going to be able to keep Dickinson away from the basket during the ~20 minutes Dainja is on the bench.

Tarris at the four. This looks like a game for Reed to play a bunch. He provides a second very large person to combat Illinois's very large persons and provides a source of rim protection for a team that goes to the rim relentlessly. His rebounding on both ends could be key. Offensively he's still pretty rough but if Jett's back I don't think that's a huge deal. Spacing can be fine: Dickinson is shooting 40% from deep.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Illinois by four.