THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#22 Michigan (3-0) vs #78 Arizona State (2-1)
WHERE	Prentice 4M Center Brooklyn, NY
WHEN	9 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -7 Torvik: M -3
TELEVISION	ESPN2

THE OVERVIEW

Arizona State! Michigan's strange cross-country nemesis they've never played! Bobby Hurley scooped up Josh Christopher in a "shock the world" recruitment that paid off with a 10-13 record, then swooped in on a discontented Frankie Collins after Michigan picked up Jalen Llewellyn. Meanwhile I've been talking trash about Bobby Hurley's coaching ability for five solid years now. Because, I mean: dude sucks. He's been at Arizona State for eight years, recruited a bunch of talent, and all he has to show for it are two First Four bids. He's had one season in the top 50 in offensive efficiency. He went to Duke.

This year, Arizona State has a three point escape against Tarleton State, an OT loss to Texas Southern (which was at Texas Southern, FWIW), and a four-point win over VCU.

I forbid Michigan to lose this game. Hear me? FORBID.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

We have issued Jett Howard as star despite the cyan on defense.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Marcus Bagley is out. Hello, Frankie.

THE THEM

[Campredon]

This is going to be a little brief since between UFR and the upcoming hockey game I am in rapid fire mode. Apologies.

Point guard Frankie Collins needs no introduction. He was wooed to Tempe by the prospect of being the man and he is indeed the man for the Sun Devils with a 29% usage rate. This has its ups and downs. Collins is a frenetic lightning bolt explodes-in-all-directions presence who currently has a top 100 assist rate… and is turning it over on 26% of his possessions used. His shooting has picked up a bit in the early going: he's hitting 68% from the line on 25 attempts and has hit 5 of 16 3PAs.

Collins remains a defensive pest with a high steal rate and should be difficult to get past for Michigan's backcourt, though it's not likely Michigan is going to be running a lot of offense through whoever Collins is checking.

Backcourt mate DJ Horne transferred in from Illinois State last year and put up a 44/36/90 line in his first season in Pac-12 play. He is the kind of Not Just A Shooter who should consider being Just A Shooter; in A+B Kenpom games last year he was just 38% inside the line because he never, ever gets to the rim—just 12 makes there last year. He is an excellent pull-up shooter who will bail out iffy Arizona State possessions but you can't build an efficient offense out of midrange jumpers by themselves.

With Marcus Bagley unavailable, brothers Desmond and Devan Cambridge started against VCU. Desmond is a 6'4" senior who transferred from Nevada, where he was a stat-sheet-filling high usage shooting guard with reasonable efficiency (52/36 shooting) hampered by an inability to get to the free throw line. Devan is a 6'6" wing who transferred from Auburn, where he was a low-usage bench player with predilection for shooting terrible threes. He's got a 29% career clip on 320 attempts! What are you doing?

Nevada transfer Warren Washington is the center. He was extremely effective in the Mountain West the last two years, shooting about 60% from the floor. He operates mostly as a finisher but does have some back-to-the-basket game. He chips in an OREB rate of around 10 and blocks a reasonable number of shots. He was an 89th percentile post defender a year ago, so this may be a game where the opposition takes its chances with Dickinson one-on-one.

The bench:

• 6'10" freshman C Duke Brennan got ten minutes against VCU largely because Washington fouled out, but he was impactful in his time on the court, scoring five points, grabbing a couple OREBs, and blocking a shot. (He also turned it over twice.) He was a pretty anonymous recruit—198th in the composite.
• Meanwhile former #31 composite C Enoch Boakye is on this roster but he got a DNP-CD in the last game and has only had scattered minutes after playing about 12 MPG a year ago. Possible ASU turns to him if they're having trouble defending Dickinson but something's off there.
• Alonzo Gaffney, who had a cup of coffee at Ohio State in 2020 before taking a year off and transferring, gets about 20 MPG. Last year he shot 52/31 and was a reasonably effective option at the 4.
• Luther Muhammad, another OSU transfer, remains the defensive specialist he was in Columbus, although he managed to put up some incredibly bad numbers a year ago: 41/19(!) shooting with an even split between twos and threes. That's a big dropoff—at least from three—from his OSU career, when he was a 36% deep shooter.
• Freshman PG Austin Nunez is off to a hot start shooting but has put up a bunch of turnovers and fouls. He was the #99 guy on the composite.

THE TEMPO FREE

For what it's worth. This is a truly ugly offensive outlook given that three of the four games ASU has played have come against teams ranked worse than 200th in Kenpom; they won against VCU despite not putting up 1 PPP.

THE KEYS

[Campredon]

Let them shoot threes, or at least don't freak out about it. Note: does not apply to Horne. No offense to Frankie but if you're asking me what I'm doing on a ball screen the answer is "go under until Frankie proves you can't." Meanwhile Devan Cambridge should probably be given the same prove-it sort of approach since he's coming off a season where he hit 22%. Pack the paint and sag off everyone except Horne seems like a good plan.

Continue exploring lead guard Kobe Bufkin. Two consecutive games he's flashed a considerable amount of playmaking ability—he got a bagel in the assists category against EMU largely because nobody converted the shots he set up—and he's been extremely effective inside the arc. Start shooting like everyone thinks he can and we're in business.

Default Dickinson bullet. This one might be tougher since ASU has a center with legitimate length and an excellent statistical profile, but he's your horse and he will be ridden. Yeehaw.

Is Joey Baker a thing? All looking like Nik Stauskas out there all of a sudden.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.