Hoops Preview 2020: Writing The Story Before I Have To Rewrite The Story
I'll come clean. I've had a difficult time getting started on this season's basketball preview, even though the football program is doing everything they can to turn my focus to the hardwood.
Some of that stems from the lack of closure to Juwan Howard's debut season, which the ongoing pandemic ended as Michigan warmed up for their opening Big Ten Tournament game, an event that somehow occurred this calendar year. Xavier Simpson and Jon Teske never got their hero sendoffs, Franz Wagner's ascent was interrupted, and we'd never find out if the team would gel in the postseason around a healthy Isaiah Livers—nor how Howard would coach with the full rotation finally at his disposal.
A force of an entirely different nature is also working against my brain: unconstrained excitement for the 2021-22 season, when Michigan may very well be bringing the #1 recruiting class in the country to campus. It's hard not to sense a transition year after Howard's top recruiting targets for this season slipped away and he's signed two five-star prospects in a loaded six-player class for next year.
yeah that might be a problem
There's also that pesky ongoing pandemic. Today, the NCAA announced it's moving the entire D-I men's basketball tournament to Indianapolis, which was previously slated to host the Final Four. The schedule is all but nonexistent less than two weeks before the season's supposed November 25th start date. Michigan doesn't have a 2020-21 schedule page on their official site. They've booked two games: the ACC/B1G Challenge matchup against NC State next month and a Nov. 29th tilt with Oakland, both taking place at the Crisler Center.
Seton Hall shut down practices last week, becoming the fourth Big East team to deal with a COVID outbreak this offseason. Tom Izzo and Jim Boeheim both tested positive for the virus in the last week; Izzo is physically isolating himself from Michigan State's program while Syracuse has had to shut down entirely after another member of the program tested positive. The voice of reason at the moment is the head coach of the Iona Gaels.
Save the Season. Move the start back. Play league schedule and have May Madness. Spiking and protocols make it impossible to play right now.
— Rick Pitino (@RealPitino) November 14, 2020
Yes, that Rick Pitino. We're in a bad place, collectively. It's hard to have a season without a schedule; it's hard to have a schedule without some general guidelines for how to safely play in a pandemic.
Will they forge on? Almost certainly, whether they remain on schedule or not. March Madness is a cash cow the NCAA's member schools will let go unplayed for a second straight year only if there's no other option. I'm not here to endorse this course of action, only to write about it.
[Hit THE JUMP for SO, LET'S TALK MICHIGAN BASKETBALL]
might just do the damn thing this year [Campredon]
Should we get something resembling a real season, however, Michigan is going to be a fun program to watch even if visions of a Caleb Houstan/Moussa Diabate pick-and-roll dance through our heads on occasion. Despite graduating their point guard/center duo of the last three years, the Wolverines are loaded with experience and depth, as Howard is happy to point out:
I would say the strength of our team is that we have experience on all levels at all positions. A guy like Mike (Smith), who is a graduate senior. Austin Davis, another one. You talk about a guy like Chaundee [Brown], Isaiah [Livers], Eli [Brooks], all three are seniors. Then you have Franz [Wagner] who doesn’t play like a typical sophomore, he’s like a seasoned vet as I would say. It’s great to have that experience on the team, yes, even though some of them are new guys and some of them haven’t played together like it was last year where we had X and Jon Teske. Pretty much, we have a team that’s familiar with one another. So that’s good.
That's helped power Michigan to higher preseason projections than, to be frank, I expected. While the excitement around the program is similar to last year, when they earned a (hypothetical) six-seed in the NCAA tourney, KenPom projects the Wolverines to finish 17th nationally and Bart Torvik has them all the way up at 11th.
While there's some uncertainty at point guard and center, Michigan has multiple options at both positions, and they've got a glut of talented, versatile wings. Howard will be able to play traditional lineups, true small-ball lineups, small-ball lineups that are actually big, and most anything else he can dream up.
If a true lead ballhandler emerges from the fray, the Wolverines could rise above the Big Ten because of that versatility, high-level coaching, and strong two-way play. The primary hope here is Franz Wagner takes that Stauskasian second-year leap to become the main conduit of an offense that can operate around his playmaking. Perhaps Columbia grad transfer point guard Mike Smith is able to translate his Ivy League game to the Big Ten more ably than one would expect. Maybe we're underestimating Eli Brooks, again. They'll all get their shot.
Whether this team is Sweet Sixteen good or merely fighting for a top-four Big Ten seed good, there'll be plenty of intrigue, especially since keeping one eye on the future is actually a fun exercise with this particular Michigan program.
Wagner's usage will be an indicator for how the coaches want to use the highly talented wings set to enter the program and how much they'll develop in Ann Arbor. The split between five-out lineups with Brandon Johns at center and more traditional looks with Austin Davis or behemoth freshman Hunter Dickinson in the middle may help determine which player types Howard prefers recruiting up front. How will the offense evolve without Simpson there to run a ton of high screens (and, yes, also limit what you can do with him off the ball)? I'm excited to find out.
There's also a chance that, in a weird sport in a weirder year, Michigan makes a 2018-like deep tournament run. I wouldn't bet on it; it wouldn't shock me. No matter what, there should be a lot of momentum rolling into 2021-22, when we all can hopefully enjoy a burgeoning powerhouse a little more intimately. In the interim, this will be more than enough.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:50 PM ^
You know the entire world is upside down when Rick Pitino becomes the voice of reason who is looking out for the players health and safety.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^
Rick Pitino is looking out for nothing except the on-court success of his own program, which is one of the ones which has had to shut down.
Dylan from UMHoops had this to say regarding Pitino's comments and I agree completely:
Yep, there are going to be a lot of cancellations. Teams are going to get shut down. But starting earlier will give time to make stuff up. I think we have to just embrace that it is going to be a different sort of year.
I don’t completely understand the delay thing, just because if some teams can get games in now then they should do it. There’s no promise things will look better on Feb. 1
The teams/conferences/NCAA have had months to prepare a decent plan. They haven't. Do you/Ace really think that delaying it a few more will make the people in charge of things become capable at their jobs? If yes, what have they done to deserve this confidence? Move the NCAA tourney back to allow for more time to adjust to cancellations, sure. But delaying the season just gives teams less of a chance to get anything remotely resembling a decent season in and likely does nothing to actually get a decent plan going.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^
I completely agree. I saw that Pitino tweet and thought, "What a schmuck! If his team was healthy and someone else was shouting to delay, he'd be the first one tweeting 'no delay, we want to play!'" A tiger doesn't change its stripes, and Rick Pitino will never be a "voice of reason."
November 16th, 2020 at 4:22 PM ^
Pitino is used to worrying about his players catching communicable diseases, so it makes sense that he'd be ahead of the game here.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:58 PM ^
Amen to that Ace, cheers to an excitingly weird basketball season. Interested to see the senior-led Wolverines take the court and do damage, while dreams of Frankie Collins leading a 3-on-1 with Houstan running to the wing and Diabate ready for the oop dance in my head.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:02 PM ^
Whether this team is Sweet Sixteen good or merely fighting for a top-four Big Ten seed good,
Aren't those kind of the same thing? If we end up a top 4 seed in the Big Ten we're going to be a S16 caliber team, with a good chance of being a protected seed.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:10 PM ^
I also think this statement oversells the floor of this team. The potential problems at PG and C are not, in my opinion, something to brush over. This team could have some really big issues scoring the ball consistently and needs more dominoes to fall than usual to reach contention level. Several of these dominoes (mid major transfer, freshman center) coming from sources that are suboptimal.
That's not to say I expect a bad year. I just don't want to have people's expectations be set to "Floor of merely fighting for a top-four Big Ten seed" and be disappointed.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:15 PM ^
Today, the NCAA announced it's moving the entire D-I men's basketball tournament to Indianapolis
Neither here nor there, but proper usage of "it's" is so rare these days I now do a double-take when I see it.
/ Its the principle of the matter
// Oh wait noooooooo
November 16th, 2020 at 2:39 PM ^
I’ve seen “loosing” used instead of “losing” so often that I’m about ready to give up and join the loosers of the world.
November 16th, 2020 at 10:09 PM ^
Don’t be a moran.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:55 PM ^
+1 for hot grammar takes that i completely agree with.
now do oxford commas or the 'two spaces after a period' thing.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:30 PM ^
I think people are still underestimating how far a core of healthy Livers, healthy second year Franz, and Chaundee Brown can take us
November 16th, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^
Just like people were underestimating how much Milton had improved, and how 2 NFL 1st round pick DE's will sack the opposing QB every other play. And what Mayfield returning will mean to this O-Line. And .....
Ahhh, fuck it. IN HOWARD WE TRUST!!!!
November 16th, 2020 at 9:03 PM ^
Plus if Mike Smith plays like freshman Derrick Walton we might have another elite 8 team on our hands. Freshman Derrick Walton wasn't as great as angry senior Derrick Walton but that kid could drain 3s and get to the rim and finish with the best of them.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:03 AM ^
And rebound. Man could that little man rebound. Something about Detroit kids and the natural Dog they have in 'em..
November 16th, 2020 at 2:43 PM ^
Enough, and more. Basketball! My first love.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:58 PM ^
The true upside of this team rests on Mike Smith, Chaundee Brown, and Hunter Dickinson.
If two of them can be above average big ten players, the upside is high. Franz and Livers are legit first round of NBA draft threats, and we've got a bunch of experienced depth with Johns, Davis, and Brooks.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:52 PM ^
My biggest surprise was how good Davis looked last year. He has legit good post moves. My jaw dropped a few times. Much better inside game and feel than Teske could ever develop.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:41 PM ^
Yeah, that was a strange year for bigs, development-wise. I wasn't suprised to see our bigs develop, since Juwan seems to have a speciality in that area. But what I *expected* to see was Teske maxing out the remaining 5-10% of potential he had yet to develop & I had assumed Davis had already met his ceiling. Instead, Teske for whatever reason seemed to regress a bit & Davis took a much bigger jump than I expected.
VERY pleased Coach Howard was able to convince Davis to stay for his final year rather than bolt to a smaller program for additional guaranteed minutes. He will be the perfect guy to be a student-coach type guy to help the more talented but raw freshmen bigs learn how to play in the Big Ten.
Kudos to Austin Davis. If Davis turns out to have pretty good skill in the student-coach type of role, I wouldn't mind seeing him stick around the program for another year or two as a grad assistant.
November 16th, 2020 at 5:36 PM ^
Not gonna miss Teske at all glong forward. I'm ready for some much more athletic big men down low.
November 16th, 2020 at 6:12 PM ^
This is a bad take. Teske was a solid player who just seemed to fit in better with Beileins system than Juwan's. Adding to the bad take pile is the fact that the Davis/Dickinson combination is not going to be any more athletic than what we had the last number of seasons.
November 16th, 2020 at 6:22 PM ^
Davis isn't athletic either but at least he was showing footwork and post moves last year. Little early to say anything about Hunter since he hasn't played a minute yet. Its just my opinion on needing more athleticism going forward. Teske actually had more ppg and just slightly less rebounds than the last year under Beilein so you can't say it's a fit thing. His fg % has regressed the last 3 years though.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:49 PM ^
The game that really drove that home for me was one of the final games of the season in February against Northwestern. It was @ Evanston & we started out very slowly. Got behind, in part due to some prety bad Teske play--he'd miss bunnies right at the basket.
JH put in Big Country, which in part sparked the comeback & we ended up winning the game.
November 17th, 2020 at 9:11 AM ^
Totally agree. The difference between 2018-19 Davis & 2019-20 Davis was eye-opening. For a dude with limited athletic ability (comparatively speaking), he's basically hitting his 99th percentile outcome as a player.
November 16th, 2020 at 5:56 PM ^
Agree, that outlook of this team improves if one or more of Dickinson, Smith and Brown hit, but I have to disagree on Livers being a legit NBA first round talent -- I love me some Livers, but no mock draft last year had him even sniffing the first round and most did not have him going in the 2nd. Unfortunately, there is not much he can do to change that as the NBA drafts based on raw athleticism and measurables vs. demonstrated production or effectiveness. Hell -- look at Cassius Winston who was one of the best / most productive players in recent B1G history -- he will be lucky to go at the end of the first round.
Regardless, really excited for this team and season -- assuming it is played :(
November 16th, 2020 at 6:16 PM ^
Before the injury plagued season his draft stock was a lot higher. If he stays healthy I think hell definitely be a 2nd rounder. It is still possible that he adds to his game, specifically with the ball in his hands, and pushes into the late 1st round but that does seem more unlikely at this point.
November 16th, 2020 at 7:17 PM ^
I would add Brandon Johns to that list. He was really starting to show something last year. If Dickinson takes longer to develop, our best lineups may end up having Johns at the 5.
Davis is great to have as a role player, but he's too limited defensively in a lot of matchups. There's a lot of talent coming in next year that threatens Johns' role on the team. Let's see how he responds.
November 17th, 2020 at 1:33 AM ^
Can we just get a Damm schedule,?? Is this rocket science?
November 17th, 2020 at 9:00 AM ^
I was trying to remember who knocked Michigan out of the NCAA tournament this past season and only remembered now that the season was cancelled due to the virus.
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