five Moes or five Duncans? five Niks would like a word. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Hoops Mailbag: Tournament of White Guys Comment Count

Ace March 24th, 2020 at 11:56 AM

MGoTheater 3000 Note: Michigan vs. Kansas, 2013 Sweet Sixteen, tonight, 8 pm ET, here on the front page and at twitch.tv/mgoace.

Today's basketball mailbag, as the title indicates, contains some indispensable information. I got enough questions to break this into two parts, so if you don't see yours here, there's a good chance it's running later this week.

I hoped by sleeping on this question it'd be easier to answer. I was very wrong!

I assume we're going with the best version of each player while they were at Michigan. Wagner obviously has the edge in size while Stauskas gains an advantage in athleticism. Both can really shoot; Stauskas is the better outside marksman while Wagner has an array of post moves. The team of Stauskases (Stauskae?) will move the ball better and base an offense around isolations and a lethal pick-and-pop. The Wagners offense won't be as pretty, though it'll still feature some pick-and-pop.

It comes down to this: will the greater offensive skill and ball movement of the Stauskae overcome a rebounding advantage for the Wagners? In the end, I think the Niks are a half-step too quick.

Today's Duncan Robinson would make this really difficult—or perhaps not, he may just take it—as he's developed into one of the NBA's most dangerous shooters in Miami. While he was undoubtedly a great shooter at Michigan, he didn't possess the ability to hit shots on the move that he does now—he was a pure spot-up guy.

Since I'm, uh, sensing a theme, let's lean all the way into it. Top Ten White Guy Fives rankings since the start of the Beilein era:

  1. Nik Stauskas
  2. Mitch McGary
  3. Moe Wagner
  4. Iggy Brazdeikis
  5. Zack Novak
  6. Franz Wagner
  7. Duncan Robinson
  8. Stu Douglass
  9. Jon Teske
  10. Spike Albrecht

Being particularly large or small is a disadvantage here, with apologies to Teske and Spike. Mitch McGary may not have the outside shot of his counterparts, but his combination of offensive skill, defensive disruptiveness, and ability to bring a high level of energy put him above Wagner for me. If he played a little more in control, I'd have him above Stauskas, but the latter made too few mistakes.

Franz Wagner has the potential to move up very high on this list, which is an essential one indeed.

[Hit THE JUMP for more silliness, then some actual basketball analysis, then maybe a little more silliness.]

While I suspect the army of mini-Moes would come up with some hilariously obnoxious ways to play defense, the complete inability for any one of them to handle a basketball is going to be a major issue. Super-Stauskas in a blowout.

Andrew Dakich would be in serious contention but he ended his playing career as a Buckeye and now sits on their bench. He made his choice.

I was all set to go with Corey Person, who was a master of the pregame handshake and the best pregame huddle dancer in recent memory:

There's also something delightful about putting in a walk-on with "PERSON" on his nameplate when you're in beat 'em down mode.

But then I remembered there is only one choice. An affable giant off the court, Amadou Ba is most famous for shoving a drunk member of the Izzone before the 2006 game at the Breslin Center because the guy decided to walk up to Michigan's bench, talk shit, and even get so close that they could smell the alcohol on his breath:

"I think (the fan) was coming to jaw with me because he was walking down looking right at me," Petway said. "I just tried looking away because I didn't want it to go out of hand like that.

"Amadou said he was jawing before that. Then I came out, and I guess he wanted to come out on the court and get a closer look at me."

Horton was also a target of the fan.

"The guy came up to me and said something to me, and I could smell alcohol on his breath," Horton said.

Denbow would not confirm whether alcohol was a factor, but he did say it looked like it was involved. He said medical personnel reported that it appeared the student in question had consumed alcohol.

ESPN had video of the incident and reported the fan tested positive for alcohol following a Breathalyzer test.

The idiot in question, Bobby Brock, was described by fellow students as "a leader of the Izzone." Ba ended up with a token 1.5-game suspension (he could enter game two after halftime); Brock was banned from the Izzone for the same length of time, and threats of a lawsuit or criminal charges by Brock were eventually dropped because of course they were.

Ba protected his squad and seemed acutely aware that he needed to take care of the matter before it involved a rotation player like Horton or Petway right before a rivalry game. Yes, he came to Michigan as a scholarship player, but he'd be a walk-on on today's squad, and I'd take him in a heartbeat.

Maddie Nolan caught fire in the season's final five games [JD Scott]

If you're unfamiliar with Maddie Nolan's path to Michigan, which involved overcoming a devastating knee injury that cost the Indiana high school superstar almost all of her senior season, this Gregg Doyle feature is well worth your time. Not only will you come away with a great appreciation for Nolan, who fought back in six months to play at well less than full strength for the final few games of her senior season, you'll understand why it took her a while to find her footing as a freshman.

She was still very much recovering when she got to Michigan and there were questions about whether she'd ever regain her previous form:

So when Maddie arrived in Ann Arbor weeks later, there were concerns as to whether she would ever be able to contribute at the college level. She couldn’t practice fully from the start. She didn’t do all of the workouts and running, and sometimes she didn’t practice at all if her knee was hurting too much.

To alleviate the pain and stabilize her knee when she played, the training staff gave Maddie a bulky knee brace, which added about an inch on the side of her leg. She had to learn how to run with the brace on and how to dribble without dribbling off the brace.

Nolan began the season as a backup on the fringe of the rotation. When Kayla Robbins tore her ACL and Danielle Rauch went down not long thereafter, Nolan had to step into the starting lineup on February 6th. In the beginning of her stint as a starter, she didn't look for her own offense, and she was essentially the same player she'd been at the beginning of the season, just with more minutes.

Over the season's final five games, however, Nolan became a true scoring threat and the secondary ballhandler the team badly needed. After not scoring in double figures all year, she had point totals of 10, 13, 9, 13, and 6 in those five games, finding her stroke from beyond the arc. After a one-assist, six-turnover game at Penn State in the first of those five contests, she dished out 11 assists to only three turnovers, taking some pressure off point guard Amy Dilk.

Maddie Nolan G MPG OR DR REB AST TO BLK STL 2PM-2PA (%) 3PM-3PA (%) FTM-FTA (%) PTS/G PTS/36M
11/8/19 to 2/02/20 15 8.9 3 11 14 5 4 1 5 4-5 (80.0%) 1-11 (9.1%) 7-9 (77.8%) 1.2 4.9
2/6/20 to 2/23/20 6 30.3 4 20 24 12 12 4 3 7-15 (46.7%) 2-10 (20.0%) 2-5 (40.0%) 3.7 4.4
2/27/20 to 3/7/20 5 36.0 5 20 25 12 9 1 7 7-12 (58.3%) 10-20 (50.0%) 3-4 (75.0%) 10.2 10.2

Nolan was a special player in high school, averaging 21.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 3.4 steals in 26.5 minutes per game while shooting 57% on twos, 42% on threes, and 80% from the line as a junior, per MaxPreps. That player began to appear again at the end of the season.

With another offseason to strengthen her knee—and also spend more time working on basketball than rehab for the first time in a couple years—she should give the team another playmaking and scoring threat in addition to playing with the scrappiness she showed for the duration of her freshman year.

Naz Hillmon will be a Big Ten Player of the Year candidate, of that I have little doubt, and she should push for All-American honors after getting first-team all-conference as a sophomore. She may be more of a dark horse national player of the year candidate than a true contender next year, however.

When you look at this year's All-Americans, a leading contender leaps out: Kentucky forward Rhyne Howard, who is a finalist for the Naismith Award as a sophomore alongside three seniors. The entire second team is comprised of underclassmen, and while a couple have declared for the WNBA draft, at the very least South Carolina post Aaliyah Boston will be back after a stellar freshman year. 2020's #1 overall recruit, Paige Bueckers, is a phenom even by top national recruit standards, and she'll get plenty of attention at UConn.

Hillmon's road to NPOY honors is already difficult since Michigan isn't a powerhouse program and there are a lot of big names coming back. My guess is her best shot would be as a senior, particularly if the Wolverines can make a bigger dent in postseason play.

You can find a full playlist of them on YouTube. I'm getting a little worried.

Comments

Teeba

March 24th, 2020 at 1:23 PM ^

Jace Howard has the potential to be the first real cross-over on this list since Jordan Morgan. Consider that Jace is not as hyped up as the other recruits in his class. I bet he spent a lot of time in basketball gyms growing up. Yep, he could be the captain of the gritty, gym-rat, coach's son team.

Jon06

March 25th, 2020 at 8:06 AM ^

This OP is not great, IMO. There's something of a long history here of stepping right on the line with respect to the difference between justifiably pointing out that sportswriting tropes are racist and straight up indulging in lazy stereotyping. The question wasn't initially about race. Why go there?

njvictor

March 24th, 2020 at 12:15 PM ^

I think 5 Iggy Brazdeikis's would be the best and I'm honestly not sure it's that close. In terms of combination of size, shooting, driving to the basket, ball handling, and defense, I think he has everyone beat. I think he's the most versatile player on that list

jmblue

March 24th, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^

Here's a question: Whenever the Olympics happen (2021?) would you consider Duncan Robinson for the team?

It sounds crazy at first, but...

BarryBadrinath

March 24th, 2020 at 1:37 PM ^

There is not really a precedent for having a "just a shooter" on an Olympic team. Looking at the 2016 cuts there wasn't a guy that really fit that archetype that was on the 30 man roster. Kyle Korver was a finalist for the 2014 FIBA team but didn't make the final cut. The specialist role seems to be reserved for all defensive type glue guys for Olympic rosters (Draymond Green - 2016 , Andre Iguodala - 2012, Tayshaun Prince - 2008). 

Not to say that this role couldn't emerge, but a lot of the guys that make the roster are already elite shooters plus other things. If Duncan's game continues to develop I would love to see him considered for a roster spot. 

BarryBadrinath

March 25th, 2020 at 10:19 AM ^

He's defensive rating is 113 which is like 125th-ish in the league and 89% of his field goal attempts are from 3 with an average of < 1 FTA/Game. 

I'm not bashing him... I think you could make the argument that he was the best shooter in the league this year, but at this point he is very much just a shooter. Would love to see him continue to develop into a Klay Thompson type.  

dragonchild

March 25th, 2020 at 1:13 PM ^

That's not what "just a shooter" means.  "Just a shooter" means all they can do is shoot the ball.

NBA Duncan Robinson is a shot creator.  Yes he's very accurate, but his off-ball movement has improved beyond belief.  The archetype Just a Shooter is Steve Novak, or the Michigan version of Duncan.  Novak was a career 43% 3-point shooter -- significantly better than Klay's 38% -- but he fell out of the NBA in his early 30s because he simply could not create his own shot, let alone open things up for others.  And he sucked at defense.  Literally his only value was as a kick-out for a more looming offensive threat, and it's hard to stay in the NBA with that skillset.  Heck, Duncan was a former D-III player for the exact same reason.  There are intramural guys who can hit half their threes if they're completely undefended, which is why Just a Shooter is in fact a bash.

Klay's not a good comparison; he's a true 3-and-D type.  Similar to Novak on offense but much better at defense.  Duncan won't ever be that guy.  His ability to stress defenses, though, goes way beyond just his shooting.  In terms of ideals, the paragon of his type is more like Reggie Miller.

BarryBadrinath

March 25th, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree a bit on this. I agree that his off the ball movement is exceptional plus the ability to catch and shoot while basically running full speed in any direction has created shot opportunities. I guess when I think of being a shot creator I think of being able to create offense of your own off the dribble and 96% of his 3's  and 84% of 2's this year have been assisted. It's a valid point though. 

I don't think "just a shooter" is a bash,  more of a stepping stone to some of the other archetypes. I think at this point in his career he is much closer to Novak then Reggie Miller. Different era obviously, but 3 point shots accounted for a total of 37% of Reggie's shot attempts during his career. I would enjoy a Heat-Knicks playoff game where Duncan is giving the choke sign to Spike Lee though. 

Son of Lloyd Brady

March 24th, 2020 at 1:22 PM ^

Technically Franz shouldn't be on a list of Beilein-era white guys because he won't ever have played for Beilein. I understand comparing them all but here's to hoping that Franz is on a list of all-time Juwan era players.

AC1997

March 24th, 2020 at 4:30 PM ^

We're deep down this rabbit hole now.....

Problems with your list:

  • Vogrich needs to be lower.  He was "just a shooter" who couldn't find playing time on the bad John Beilein team.
  • Austin Davis may have moved past Ricky Doyle at this point.  That's a tough call as they're both very similar players.  Davis did more on offense in less time...Doyle was force to play more due to the roster.  
  • Smotrycz is one of the guys I was most surprised didn't work out with Beilein.  Seemed like an ideal 4 in his system, struggled with confidence, had to play out of position out of necessity, etc.  

Teddy Bonkers

March 24th, 2020 at 4:32 PM ^

The list got me interested in who are the top ten foreign born or foreign national players to play basketball at university of Michigan. The only one to come to my mind outside this list was Ekpe Udoh, I recall him being a raw talent at Michigan, and then transferring just has his game was getting refined 

AC1997

March 24th, 2020 at 4:33 PM ^

McGary remains the biggest enigma on this list. Ace is probably prepping for the 2013 game and seeing McGary at his best.  But that best lasted a handful of games and was build on energy and effort as much as skill.  Can you justify him ahead of some of those guys when you can't even pick out his best "season" because he never played a full one?  

McGary at his peak would abuse Mo physically...but only if you kept it to an 8-game season.  I think I'd move him to 4th behind Mo and Iggy.  

AC1997

March 24th, 2020 at 4:43 PM ^

How about an all-Beilein transfer team?  Guys who left for other schools with eligibility left (not NBA departures).  You're looking at....

  • Ibi Watson
  • Aubrey Dawkins
  • Ricky Doyle
  • Evan Smotrycz
  • Kam Chatman
  • Jon Horford
  • Spike Albrecht
  • Andrew Dakich
  • Matt Vogrich
  • Max Bielfeldt
  • Laval Lucas-Perry

And the one people forget....

  • Epke Udoh

AC1997

March 24th, 2020 at 6:36 PM ^

Man....you're right.  He stuck it out and barely played but didn't transfer.  My bad.  

If I get really bored later and have a beer or two I might post an all-Ellerbe or all-Amaker team that would have been awesome under Beilein.  Would have loved to see Blanchard play for him.

TrueBlue2003

March 24th, 2020 at 5:31 PM ^

I'm not sure I'd necessarily say Stauskas is more athletic than Wagner, but he was a better ball handler so he probably would be able to get a step on Wagner in an iso scenario, and then would be able to either finish or pass (as a better distributor) to an open Stauskas if help came.

That maybe offsets the advantage Wagner would have down low, on help defense and on the boards but it'd be really close. That's a tough one.

One thing to remember about a team of clones: they'd obviously be switching everything so pick and pop isn't really going to work.  It would almost necessarily devolve into a series of isos and post ups.

FWIW, I don't think a team of Duncan Robinson's would be very good in this exercise.  He's highly dependent on shot creators getting him open looks.  No one is better at converting those open looks but I don't really see how he gets them here.

matty blue

March 25th, 2020 at 5:50 AM ^

it will be really interesting to see what happens with maddie nolan next season.  

i was stunned when she stepped in as a starter, to be honest - she'd looked utterly lost for the first half of the season, but i put it to freshman inexperience rather than the injury.  i'd seen the big knee brace, but that's not unusual in the women's game.  since she came in under the radar as a recruit i didn't realize how bad the injury had been (and it was, clearly).  obviously, that was my bad, as she really came on with increased minutes.  she's got a good handle and she can shoot on the move or spotting up.

my favorite parts of her game are, strangely, the parts where another 4" would make her a superstar.  she's 5'-8" (maybe) but seems to get 2-3 boards each game on pure hustle and is a plus defender, even when she's giving up 4-6" to everyone.  

she's just a tough little shit, and i love her.  she'd definitely be on the 'best (wink) gym rat' team for the women.

which makes me think of a women's version.  in the ten years or so i've been following the michigan ladies, just off the top of my head, in no particular order:

  • katelyn flaherty
  • jenny ryan
  • kate thompson
  • nicole munger
  • madison ristovski
  • hallie thome
  • nicole elmblad

at some point i'll have to do a diary or ten on the ladies.  they're awfully fun to follow right now.