Hockey Preview: Denver, Frozen Four
ESSENTIALS
| WHAT | #1 (1) Michigan vs #1 (4) Denver |
|
|---|---|---|
| WHERE | TD Garden Boston, MA |
|
| WHEN | 5:00 PM EST | |
| KRACH Prob. | Michigan (62.0%) | |
| TELEVISION | ESPN2 |
OVERVIEW
The final weekend of the college hockey season is here and Michigan is still standing. The Wolverines made it through the testy Allentown Regional and booked their tickets to the Frozen Four, where they will meet the winners of the Loveland Regional, the Denver Pioneers. Two #1 seeds meet in the first of two semifinal games tonight at the TD Garden in Boston, and it figures to be an explosive battle of two high-powered offenses.
[David Wilcomes]
THE US
Michigan arrives in Boston after a healthy layoff following the heart-stopping Quinnipiac game in the regional final. The Wolverines have plenty to work on after a leaky defensive effort against the Bobcats, and I'm wondering whether the defensive pairings change tonight. The Nick Blankenburg-Ethan Edwards duo in particular looked very rough in that game, and we shall see if Mel Pearson decides to go back to the Owen Power-Blankenburg top pair, or if he sticks with this configuration. I'd expect the forward lines to stay the same, the Brisson/Beniers/Johnson line at the top, followed by the Bordeleau line, the Beecher line, and then the GVW line. When you score 12 goals in two NCAA Tournament games, it likely means the forwards aren't changing.
Erik Portillo will get the start, as has been the case in every game this season. His numbers took a bit of a hit after giving up seven total goals in the two games a couple weekends ago, but anyone who watched those games knows it was far from his fault. He has been excellent this season and is arguably Michigan's biggest advantage over the Pioneers.
[AFTER THE JUMP: Meet the Pioneers]
THE THEM: PERSONNEL
Denver ran out the same lineup in each of the two games of the Loveland Regional, which looked like this on the line chart:
Denver boasts three lines that can hurt you, with their top line getting most of the attention. That unit is anchored by Hobey Baker finalist Bobby Brink. Brink tore up the USHL in 2018-19 with Sioux City but was snubbed in the NHL Draft, falling from borderline lottery projection to the early second round. He found his way to Denver where he has added muscle to his undersized frame, becoming one of the more dangerous offensive players in college hockey this season. Brink drives that line from the right wing with a crafty set of skills and is joined by two seniors. Cole Guttman is the team captain, a scrappy player with a lot of heart, and Ryan Barrow. Guttman and Brink produce plenty of offense, while Barrow adds a touch of size.
The second line is driven by Carter Savoie from the left wing with help from Brett Stapley down the center. Stapley brings the veteran experience and a bit of skill, while Savoie is not a dissimilar player to Brink as a moderately undersized (a theme for Denver) winger with a ton of offensive tools, a solid shot paired with above average vision and playmaking ability. Jack Devine rounds out the line as a younger piece (draft eligible for 2022), but I didn't notice him a ton during the games I watched.
The third line is my favorite, a fast and aggressive line that pressures the opposition hard on the forecheck. Massimo Rizzo is the center, a speedy player with a good set of hands, and his wings both add something different. Carter Mazur (native of Jackson, Michigan!) is a speedster of his own who contributes much of the forecheck tenacity that the line boasts, an energy bug who doesn't stop working and someone I love watching. Cameron Wright is the third piece, a BGSU transfer who is one of Denver's top goalscorers, helping to diversify what this line can do.
Bobby Brink [University of Denver Athletics]
The fourth line is not terribly dangerous, but they are comparable to Michigan's fourth line. They kill penalties (McKade Webster is one of the team's top PK forwards) and handle the defensive assignments they are asked to. For those interested, the 13th forward on that line chart is Brett Edwards, who you may notice is from the same home town as Michigan's Ethan Edwards. That's because they're brothers! [NOTE: your author ran into Ethan and Brett's grandfather last night in Boston and was informed of this information during that conversation].
On defense, Sean Behrens and Kyle Mayhew make up a severely undersized defensive pairing that contrasts experience, one freshman with one senior. Behrens is a smart, puck-moving defenseman (2nd round pick of the Avalanche in 2021) who may not be the quickest, but makes up for it by reading the play very well. Meanwhile, Mayhew is the defensive conscience of the pairing and kills penalties.
Shai Buium and Mike Benning make up the second pair, an interesting mix of size between the large Buium and the smaller Benning. Both are NHL Draft picks, with Benning being an offensively-minded defenseman who aids the power play from the point and Buium being an intriguing mix of offensive talent and size that is still being tapped into.
The third pair puts trusty veteran Justin Lee with Antti Tuomisto as a bigger, more defensively-oriented pair. Neither are going to go up ice all that much, but I did think Lee was very good passing from the back-end forward, a theme across the roster for the Pioneers.
[University of Denver Athletics]
THE THEM: STYLE
Denver is laced with NHL talent. It is not the same level of talent as Michigan's based on draft position, but the truth is that if you get a 4th rounder to their upperclass years and develop them well, the gap between a high-performing, older mid-round pick and a young/inexperienced 1st/2nd round pick is not as big as you'd think. That's the case with Denver getting guys like Guttman and Brink to their junior and senior seasons.
The Pioneers like to score, sitting 1st in college hockey in goals at 4.3 per game. Denver doesn't have the elite finishing talent that Michigan possesses, but they score goals by generating a high volume of shots, 2nd in the country at 37.4 shots per game (trailing only "Shoot From Anywhere At All Times" Penn State). Having watched both of their games in the regional (twice), I can say that I was impressed by the passing from the back-end forward by their defense. Their defensemen aren't going to go on jawdropping rushes like Luke Hughes, nor do they cycle their defensemen below the goal line as often as Michigan does. The defensemen do lead the rush on some occasions, but not with wild abandon. Where they are extremely dangerous, though, is making the vertical stretch pass to set up a rush chance for their forwards.
[University of Denver Athletics]
Once the forwards have the puck, they have plenty of skill. Again, not the game-breaking plays that Michigan makes, but they can collapse a defense and attack with speed. Michigan is going to have to be disciplined defensively, especially in transition defense to make sure that 3v3 rushes don't turn into mini-2v1s, which was a problem against Quinnipiac.
On the forecheck, Denver is tenacious. They send F1 below the goal line to flush out the defenseman rather than letting the opposition calmly wait for the right breakout. If F1 starts to make noise, F2 will slide down as well to apply additional pressure. When the opposing regroup comes into the neutral zone, the forwards don't stand in stationary positions, but instead surf around a bit to try and apply more pressure. They do not make it calm and easy for opposing defensive corps.
One last note on Denver is that they are a surprisingly small team. If you look at the line chart, 13 of their 19 skaters are under 6'0" in height. Eight of those are 5'10" or shorter, including multiple 5'9" or smaller guys. Michigan has some undersized skaters (hello there, Nick Blankenburg), but of the 19 I expect Michigan to dress, only 6 are under 6'0", and only Blankenburg, Bordeleau and Duke are 5'10" or shorter. Denver is the 2nd shortest team (by average height) in D1 this season, and the 6th lightest. Michigan will have a height edge of a couple inches and a weight edge of (on average) six pounds. That could help in the physical component of the game, where Denver lacks a bit.
[David Wilcomes]
SPECIAL TEAMS
Michigan has the edge over Denver in the special teams department. The Pioneers are 12th in the NCAA on the power play at 24.4%, contrasted with Michigan at 2nd at 26.8%. On the flip side, Michigan's PK is 18th at 82.9%, while Denver is sagging down at 79.6%, which ranks 36th. The battle of Michigan's vaunted PP against Denver's weak PK seems like one of the key matchups in this game.
As for the scheme and personnel, Denver runs a standard 1-3-1 PP, like most teams do nowadays. They have four forwards and 1 D (Benning) on the first PP unit, while they use 2 D on the second unit, with Behrens at the top and Shai Buium as a shooter. Carter Mazur and Cam Wright are the netfront guys on the two units, while Carter Savoie and Bobby Brink are in the circles on the top unit, with Cole Guttman as the bumper.
[David Wilcomes]
GOALIES
Here is the other source of an advantage for Michigan. We know how good Erik Portillo is, while Denver is trotting out the moderately shaky Magnus Chrona. There are similarities between the two players, as both are mammoth Swedish goalies, and both were drafted, showing the underlying potential. However, the statistics tell two different stories from this season. Portillo currently possesses a .926 SV%, tied for 10th in college hockey, and the eye test backs up how sharp he has been.
On the flip side, Chrona has a 2.16 GAA... but also a .909 SV%. When you see a GAA that is quite low but also a SV% that's not terribly high, it's generally an indictment of the goalie and I think that's been the case with Chrona in the games I saw. He gave up a very poor goal against Duluth that nearly submarined Denver's season and that's the potential in the game tonight. One really poor goal allowed by either netminder could swing the game and if you made me bet on which guy will give it up, I'd bet on Chrona. But also this is goaltending, so it's anyone's guess. We shall see!
[David Wilcomes]
KEY MATCHUPS
Michigan's elite finishers vs. Magnus Chrona. The Wolverines have a habit this season of going up against elite/hot goalies and making them look... not elite. This list includes Jakub Dobeš, Justen Close, and now Yaniv Perets in the regional final. That's because Michigan boasts at least two legit good NHL-caliber shooters (Beniers/Brisson), and several more whose shots could hack it in the league. Those kinds of shooters are good enough to best a good NCAA goalie on an ordinary look, let alone a shaky one like Chrona. The finishing ability of the Maize & Blue could allow them to convert on a higher percentage of their chances than Denver, which may be pivotal if Denver gets more high end chances (by volume) than Michigan.
Denver's counters vs. Michigan's defense jumping up. Michigan plays with aggressive defensemen who rush up the ice, who cycle deep into the defensive zone, and who take risks to make plays happen offensively. Denver is a team with good passing defensemen and forwards who like to slink behind the opposing D's backline and set up breakaway chances on a quick-up counter after the puck is turned over. This is a big test for the Wolverines. If you're a Michigan defenseman, you have to be ready to hustle back and you cannot lose a player behind you, because the Pioneers have the passers to make the stretch pass to create one of those chances. I don't love Michigan's chances if Denver gets 3 or 4 breakaways.
Michigan vs. Don't Take A Five Minute Major. The Wolverines have now played six postseason hockey games without taking the crushing five minute major that haunted them in the regular season. Only two more (hopefully) to go. You cannot give a good PP like Denver a five minute opportunity to hurt you, because they will gladly take advantage. Don't hit a guy when his back is facing you up against the boards!
PREDICTIONS
Are stupid in a one game hockey playoff
Go Blue! This entire year has led up to two final games. Play clean (without penalties and not sloppy with the puck) and I think Michigan comes away with this game. Good luck men!
Not sure I've ever seen that many dudes named Carter all in one place. WTF.
3 Carters, 2 Jacks, 2 Bretts, and a Kyle and Cole.
They're all dating gals named Emma as well.
For Red Wings fans, Mazur (third round pick 2021) and Buium (2rp 2021) are both prospects that may have the Red Wings in their future. I know people were kinda down on the Mazur pick at the time (and picking Buium over Aatu Raty), but I believe both of them have picked up their stock a decent amount this season. Two guys I'm going to watch when Denver has the puck for sure.
Go blue!
Antti Tuomisto was a 2nd round pick for the Wings in 2019. But he hasn't lived up to that billing quite yet, playing further down the lineup than Buium who was drafted in 2021.
I think both have gotten the NCHC rookie of the week award at least once this year too. Mazur in particular has been a pleasant surprise from a Wings fan perspective.
I love the Wings and therefore think our prospects should definitely NOT score tonight and save them for fall camp instead.
As unpleasant as it was to watch, I think the Bobcat comeback in the regional final was a blessing.
Every player knows that you can’t take a shift off or get out worked by your man, but it happens all the time. I hope that lesson was fully appreciated without having to suffer an L
DU is a great team and this is a “coin flip” game, but my feelings ball is that Michigan looks like a fucking buzzsaw this weekend.
I think you're underselling Chrona a little bit. If you want to compare him to the rest of the nation, 36th overall doesn't look great. But there is a lot of Atlantic Hockey/ECAC/Hockey East in there that just isn't very good. I think it's pretty clear by this point that a lot of Perets' big numbers came from a terrible schedule.
Compare Chrona to the conference he plays in and he ranks fourth in save percentage in a league where 4 of the 8 starting goalies have signed NHL contracts in the past three weeks(compared to just two goalies signing NHL deals for the rest of college hockey). He'll probably have an opportunity to be the fifth after this weekend too. Portillo is a little better unless he makes one of his Big Gaffes, but Chrona is a solid goalie.
Go Blue!
Awesome preview and hopefully Michigan has two games this weekend!
Spent most of the last week and a half concerned with life things and not too worried about Denver.
That's all over now. The terror begins.
Since the dawn of the Red era, Michigan has only lost one national final. If they make it to the Frozen Four and don't win, it's usually a semi loss. So it was in 92 to Wisconsin, 93 to Maine (OT), 95 to Maine (3OT), 97 to BU, 01 to BC, 02 to Minnesota, 03 to Minnesota (OT), 08 to ND (OT), and 18 to ND (nearly OT).
If there was a year I followed Michigan hockey more intently than any other, it was 02-03 (with the prior and subsequent seasons close behind). I had recreational cash to spend on tickets and trips and the days off from work to take long weekends. I attended virtually every home game, and my road trips included (but were not limited to) Marquette, Omaha, Columbus, Madison, and Minneapolis.
And Buffalo. The tournament that year was the first 16-team tournament, and while the Molly weekend was better, the regional at Yost was fantastic, with a gripping win over Maine (Jed Ortmeyer made an error that led to a tying Maine goal, then redeemed himself by scoring the winner) and a surprisingly powerful win over a high-flying Colorado College team that looked unstoppable. Michigan was peaking at the right time, and roared into Buffalo playing incredible hockey. Jason Ryznar played the games of his life against CC and Minnesota. Al Montoya was fantastic in goal. Milan Gajic and David Moss and Eric Nystrom and Jed Ortmeyer were machines.
That Minnesota team was excellent, but Michigan jumped out to a 2-goal lead. Minnesota clawed back, but Michigan had a goal waved off and an amazing chance to win, with Ryznar shooting the puck at close range to an open Minnesota net... only to be stopped by Minnie defensive star Paul Martin diving and blocking the puck with his glove.
It went to OT. You know what happened. Right in front of me. Thomas Vanek.
It was as gutting a sports experience as you can have. It was a team playing as well as any in the country. They would have manhandled UNH in the final, as Minnesota went on to do. I saw guys like Jed Ortmeyer hang their heads, absolutely crushed to know that he'd never get to win a title. I thought, at least, that the sophomore class would be able to put it together at some point and get back. But they never did.
The years tick by, and there are still exactly nine banners at Yost. Still, we wait. Still, we know, it could all end this afternoon. By sunset we may be thinking about pro playoffs and baseball and vacations.
But this is a great Michigan hockey team. Incredibly talented. The one year we got almost everyone back (that 2003 Michigan team was missing guys like Mike Cammalleri and Mike Komisarek following a a typical "Michigan Hockey Summer"). The draft class all decided they wanted to play in college... and play for Michigan.
It could happen.
That's why it hurts. That's why we never forget. That's why we come back. To watch them roll the dice in another semifinal. Because maybe, maybe, maybe, this can be the year.
I hope.
Two wins to go.
Single elimination playoff hockey = excitement combined with sheer and utter terror until about 7 PM tonight.
Can't wait, Go Blue!
Denver as a team is how I'd love to build a roster if you could thread the needle. Rely less on 1st & 2nd round guys and magically pick 3rd-6th round guys who will stay 3-4 years. Denver is a solid team and this makes me most nervous
On the forecheck, Denver is tenacious. They send F1 below the goal line to flush out the defenseman rather than letting the opposition calmly wait for the right breakout. If F1 starts to make noise, F2 will slide down as well to apply additional pressure.
Our defense has at times struggled to exit and the Blankenburg-Edwards pairing really got in over their heads vs Quinnipiac when the pressure was dialed up in the 3rd. Power has also had trouble recently with puck handling and blind passes to no one in our own D zone. If you can find a weakness on Michigan to exploit, this would be what I would go after as Denver's HC. I could easily see this being a major problem for us today
Michigan needs to
- win that special teams battle - one of the areas Michigan seems to have a clear advantage. Sometimes Michigan gets a little check-y near the boards and plastering DU's small guys is asking for a major to be called. Need to have the advantage in minutes here
- get another great showing from Portillo who is going to face a lot of grade A and B chances
- and put a ton of pressure on Chrona who seems to be Denver's weak point
62% to win against the best team we've faced all year? I'll take it.
Gotta hurry up and get these human cells cryopreserved (training new lab staff) and study documents reviewed before 4:45 so I can get home and watch the game.
62% to win against the best team we've faced all year?
Most important game of the year (unless they win, in which the final will pass it)? Absolutely. Best team they've faced? Unclear. Potentially the most dangerous, but the numbers would probably say Minnesota St. is the best.
Interestingly, Denver is the only top six team Michigan has yet to play, having already played Minnesota St., Western, Minnesota and Duluth (and obviously unable to play themselves).
Denver and Michigan seem like the two most crisp teams in the country by far. Every pass just seems to be perfect when each of these teams plays. This game feels like it could have easily been a national championship game in most of the past ten years or so. Very excited!!!
Go Blue!
At the Mgoblue sports site, it says "watch the game." When I click, it takes me to ESPN. Does that mean I have to be paid up at some provider, or that I might really be able to watch the game?
Refjob'd.
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