With less than two weeks to go before The Game, Michigan plays host to the Illinois Fighting Illini this Saturday at the Big House for the final tune-up contest. A tough loss by Illinois at home to Purdue has robbed them of what once seemed like a likely trip to Indianapolis, but the program is still ahead of schedule from when they hired Bret Bielema and is going to finish with their best regular season record since Ron Zook 15 years ago. Plenty of things to still be proud of, Illinois fans! 

 

The Film: Illinois has faced two defenses this season that are rated by SP+ to be in the same ballpark as Michigan (read: elite), Minnesota and Iowa. The game against Iowa was one in which starting QB Tommy DeVito got injured and had to be replaced by Artur Sitkowski (yes, that Artur Sitkowski) and thus is not usable for the purposes of this column, forcing me to choose Minnesota. The downside is that the Minnesota game took place over a month ago, but thankfully injuries have not hit the Illinois offense to the extent that they have the defense, so this is a doable game that we can use to extrapolate forward, even if it represents the high point of the offense on the season.

Personnel: Click for big or here for PDF. 

Illinois is starting Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito at QB. One of my big keys to the season coming into the year for Illinois was getting improved QB play after 2021's problematic tandem of Sitkowski and Brandon Peters. They have gotten that from DeVito, and though their dreams of a B1G West title have come up frustratingly short, they are still going to win three more games than last season and go to a bowl game. DeVito is a big reason why, even if he has his limitations. He can move pretty well and has thrown 15 TDs to 3 INTs at 70% completion and 7.3 Y/A. He's not a great downfield passer, but given the level of QB play seen in the B1G this season, I would say that DeVito is comfortably top half of the league, if not top 5. 

The star of the offense is at the RB position, with Chase Brown, a one-time WMU transfer who faced Michigan with the Broncos way back in early 2018. He's now spent four seasons in Champaign and is a top three RB in the B1G this season, a star who has become a workhorse for the Fighting Illini. Brown has 280 carries this season(!), leading the NCAA in both rushes and rushing yards. He has more carries than the rest of the Illinois team combined and has become the lifeblood of the offense. If Brown ever comes off the field Reggie Love III, Josh McCray or Chase Hayden may fill in, but there are very few carries available for anyone not named Chase Brown. 

The WR position revolves around slot Isaiah Williams, who you may recall playing some QB against Michigan back in 2019. Attempts to make this ex-top 100 recruit into Denard Robinson 2.0 have gone out the window and he's settled in as a speedy slot who knows how to get open underneath as a safety valve for DeVito in addition to having a role as an end-around guy. Williams has 64 catches for 553 yards this season and 5 TDs, career highs in all three categories. Like Brown at RB, Williams sucks up all the attention at WR, with the next two receivers getting nearly the same number of catches combined as Williams has by himself. Those would be Brian Hightower and Pat Bryant, the primary outside options. Both offer much more size (6'3") than Williams, while Casey Washington is 6'2" and also in the mix. DeVito prefers to do his work on shorter routes than fades, which is why Williams gets more of the work. 

As you'd expect in a Bielema offense, there are several TEs worth mentioning. Tip Reiman, this week's name of the week candidate, is the starting and most used TE, with 170 more snaps than #2, Luke Ford. Ford's name may ring a bell as he was a one-time UGA player who was the center of the famous transfer waiver case in 2019 that was a key moment in the destruction of transfer rules, leading to today's free-for-all portal. Ford is somehow still in college as a 5th year senior but has never become the player that his top 100 composite profile suggested he would be. Fellow geriatric TE Michael Marchese rounds out this positional group, with Marchese leading the TEs in TDs this season. 

The OL is not yet a vintage Bielema group, still made up of a number of pieces he inherited from the previous regime. The best piece on the line is one of those inherited players, RT Alex Palczewski, who has been one of the better tackles in the league going back to his first season as a starter in 2019. I was not terribly impressed with Palczewski against Minnesota, but his PFF grades have been consistently stellar all year and I liked his tape in the past, so I felt comfortable leaving the star on him. The other pieces are mostly fine, aside from rotational RG Zy Crisler, who is a weak point. He rotates with Jordyn Slaughter, while the rest of the line is pretty firm. C Alex Pihlstrom, LG Isaiah Adams, and LT Julian Pearl are just guys, with the benefit of experience (all 5th or 6th year players) helping bolster a running game that sees Chase Brown do a lot of the lifting himself. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Diverse run concepts galore!]

Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Though Illinois is a run-heavy offense that builds its passing game off of play-action, they are not a dinosaur under center offense that plods along like Iowa. In fact, they play almost exclusively out of the gun: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	47	11	23	96%
Under Center	2	1	--	4%

Going under center was an extremely rare occurrence, one that tipped the hand, yes, but it happened so infrequently that it isn't really worth considering it a deficiency. You can see the desire to run the football come out in their play type distribution by down here: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	25	10
2nd	17	12
3rd	5	11
4th	2	2

Run it on first down, then run it again on second down, and if you have to face third down, maybe pass it then. For a lot of this year, that formula has worked spectacularly, but it may not be the best for when you're trailing in a game. 

Base Set: Illinois bounces between 11 and 12 personnel on nearly every down, going to 13 every so often but not enough to qualify it as a base set. They were in 11 most often in my charting, so this is what we'll go with as the true "base set": 

Here they are in 12: 

Pretty generic stuff there. One note about the above image: Illinois does play out of the pistol quite often, so much so that it is close to a base formation. 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: I will look at this more in depth in the overview and Dangerman sections, but Illinois has the most diverse array of run concepts- by far- of any opponent I've charted this season. They were throwing the whole kitchen sink out there, power/counter/pin-and-pull + inside zone/stretch/duo + all kinds of end arounds and other funky stuff. Folks who are into play designs like Patrick Mayhorn at Meet At Midfield have been documenting the sheer volume of different run plays that Illinois has been running this season and it is really Harbaugh-esque. As a whole, I think Illinois is a bit more in the Manball category than Basketball on Grass (a slight lean towards gap plays over zone) but they throw everything at you. 

Hurry it up or grind it out: Another way the Illinois offense is different than Iowa is they have the ability to move a little bit quicker if they want. They are not Indiana when it comes to moving at rapid fire speed, but the Fighting Illini have tempo in their repertoire and do consistently get up to the line without a need for a huddle, placing them around average to quicker than average in terms of pace in my estimation. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Tommy DeVito is not a star runner, but he is a mobile QB with the ability to extend plays, scramble, and execute a few zone reads to keep the opposing defense honest. These attributes were all on display in the game tape against Minnesota. Let's start with the zone read, which DeVito made the pull on in order to get himself a walk in TD: 

There were only two of those called against Minnesota (not many considering I charted 84 plays), but they yanked it out at the perfect time to trick a Gopher defense that was crashing hard on Chase Brown. DeVito also was able to scramble to pick up a first down when contain broke: 

In addition to this, DeVito throws on the run a decent amount, with rollouts a core part of the offense. For the season, DeVito has 58 carries (including sacks), which comes out to about four non-sack carries per game. Not many, but that's a couple zone reads and a couple scrambles. Tim Tebow? No. What is necessary to facilitate a 2022 successful rush offense and complement a passing attack? Yes. DeVito gets a 7 on our scale for an inclination to do it even if he's not terribly dangerous when he runs. Effective but not sexy. 

Dangerman: This is an easy selection, it's RB Chase Brown. The whole offense revolves around Brown and his talents, his ability to find hidden yards on the ground, carry it 20-30 times a game with no issues, and play a role as a receiver. Brown's statline of 280 carries for 1,442 yards and 7 TDs on the ground + 23 catches for 173 yards and 3 TDs as a receiver says it all. The guy can play. His abilities as a runner are all on display right here: 

He waits to find a hole, then accelerates, then makes a jump cut, then another one, then gets contacted and spins forward for extra yardage while being tackled. Sign me up. 

Brown had several longer, chunk runs in this game that are more attributable to his blockers, but I was often most impressed with runs where he got three yards on a play in which the blockers gave him zero. Example: 

The vision, patience, and ability to get low and burrow his way forward for plus yardage are regular features of Chase Brown's game. Once it's time to accelerate, though, he can kick it into gear. The vision that Brown displays has made Illinois comfortable giving him direct snaps from time to time to run the BrownCat:

The Canadian RB also plays a role in the passing game, where he can be both a safe target for DeVito when he wants to dump it off and a legit weapon in the downfield passing attack running wheel routes, one of which went for a TD against the Gophers: 

Brown is a do-it-all star for Illinois and along with Miyan Williams and Blake Corum, one of the three best RBs in the B1G (and country). He's percolated in college many years to morph into the star that he has this season and Brown deserves the praise he's gotten. As good as advertised. 

HenneChart: I have said in the past that I am a believer in scouting teams at their best as opposed to their worst, because there is never a penalty in overestimation but definitely one in underestimation. This sentence holds true for all DeVito analysis today, because the Minnesota game happened to be DeVito's best of the season, a terrific outing given his role against a top end defense: 

Illinois vs. Minn.	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Tommy DeVito	1	17	1		--	4		1	--	5	1		73%	2

DeVito's DSR of 73% lines up pretty neatly with the counting stats from the game: 25/32 (78%) for 252 yards (7.9 Y/A), 1 TD to 0 INT. He was excellent if you adjust it for what Illinois asks him to do. The reason I keep adding that caveat is Illinois does not expect DeVito to be CJ Stroud, leading a dynamic vertical passing game. Bert only asks DeVito to make the passes he should make, between 5 and 10 yards down the field generally, to keep the offense moving and complement the rushing attack. 

DeVito is a short stuff QB, called upon in 3rd down situations to move the chains. Throws like this: 

Getting him on the run, often with waggle action or intermediate stop routes are ways to get DeVito in rhythm: 

That isn't to say he is incapable of making deep throws. DeVito can from time to time, it's just pretty infrequent, although he did have this pretty dime against Minnesota: 

Again, DeVito was cooking in this game in a way he was not last weekend against Purdue. We did get to see why Illinois doesn't have him throw those deep balls all that often, as that was one of the few deep balls he delivered that even gave the WR a chance. In contrast to past Michigan opposing QBs, fades are not his best throw and accuracy is the culprit: 

But give him a guy open in the intermediate range and DeVito knows how to step up and deliver a catchable ball to keep the offense on schedule: 

Overall, DeVito is a QB who is a pretty solid fit for this offense because he is consistently accurate on the sort of throws to keep the Illinois death march offense going. He makes the throws and can offer a touch of running ability to pick up first downs, but is not going to threaten down the field that much nor uncork throws to create explosive passes. DeVito is the definition of Good Not Great, limiting turnovers and facilitating this specific offense. Illinois could do better, and be a more dynamic offense with a better QB, but they could also do much, much worse. 

 

Overview 

Illinois' offense has a number of pieces that I like yet the sum total in the various metrics is not particularly great. They rank 97th in SP+ offense and are scoring just 24.7 points per game, while gaining barely over 400 yards per game. What's going on here? First of all, we have to acknowledge that Bielema manages games in a Harbaugh-like style, built around time of possession, grinding the opponent down, and minimizing risk, as opposed to going for the big play or trying to pour it on the opposition. That fundamental difference in approach creates a bit of an issue for analytical models like SP+ to deal with and also is going to drive down counting stats like yards. 

Another rather large problem that Illinois has encountered is their red zone offense. They don't get points on nearly as many red zone drives as they should, and they kick far more FGs than you'd prefer even when they do get points. Illinois has made it to the red zone 44 times this season and has gotten points on only 34 of those drives, a score percentage of 77.3%, ranking 108th in the NCAA. Of those 34 scores, 19 were TDs and 15 were FGs. In other words, if we say a TD is worth 7 points, Illinois is getting barely over 4 points per red zone possession this season. By comparison, Michigan, a team that has gotten some consternation over red zone offense this season, is up over 5.5 red zone points per possession this year. The Illinois red zone offense is a sore spot. I can't exactly diagnose what the problems are, but teams have been able to slow down Illinois' long marches down the field once they get backed up in the shadow of their own goal line. Something to keep in mind. 

As for the individual pieces on the offense, we've covered the big two, but if there's a third "big" piece to discuss, it's WR Isaiah Williams. Two of the HenneChart clips were throws to Williams and I'll give you one more right here: 

The throws I've featured with Williams involved were of the shorter variety, which gives you an idea of how Illinois uses him, giving him slants, out routes, and crossing patterns, in addition to that stop route above. They rely on his shiftiness and fluidity as an athlete to get open underneath. Williams also gets a few bubble screens and appears in the running game on end-arounds. Anything to get the ball in Williams' hands quickly, with space to make a play and engineer positive yardage. He's one of the few true plus athletes on a team that 247 rates as the second-least talented team in the B1G. 

The rest of the receivers are just there. The only clip to feature is one I already showed you, the DeVito bomb down the field  completed to Brian Hightower. That DeVito doesn't throw many balls like that is a good look into why Illinois doesn't use those guys all that much. The TEs also play a larger role in run blocking than as receivers, but you get them in Iowa-like waggle action from time to time: 

That was Tip Reiman and it was the only ball DeVito completed to a TE on the day, generally being out of sync with the TEs when he targeted them. The 30 combined catches between Reiman/Ford/Marchese is fewer than what each of Williams, Hightower, and Bryant have individually. A big part of why Illinois' offense doesn't rate too highly overall is what I've just described, only having peak comfortability using two skill position players, Brown and Williams. When you don't use your outside WRs too much and don't have great chemistry with the TEs, it limits your options. Williams and Brown are both very good, but this offense lacks another dimension (either a dominant TE or a home run outside WR) necessary to take it to another level. 

Where Illinois really gets fun to analyze is the OL and running game. Let's get the less exciting stuff out of the way first, pass protection. Illinois has been pretty good in pass protection this season, keeping sacks low overall but there is one weak spot on the line, the RG position with Zy Crisler rotating with Jordyn Slaughter. Crisler was the source of nearly every pass pro minus I charted in the game (they weren't many), plays like this one: 

As he does in this clip, DeVito showed a pretty good ability to get throws off when faced with interior pressure from the Crisler position (also peep that it's Williams making the catch). Crisler also strugged in run blocking and is PFF's worst graded Illinois starting lineman by a healthy margin. That should be a clear mismatch for Michigan to exploit with Mazi Smith and Kris Jenkins lining up opposite him. 

Now let's get to the fun stuff, the litany of different run concepts that Bert showed in this game. So far in the Dangerman section I've shown clips of counter and stretch, but let's put a few more on tape. Here you've got Williams in motion being paired with the center and fronntside guard pulling. Minnesota's LBs were great stopping the run all day (as they are here), but this is a more interesting play than 90% of what we've looked at in FFFF this season: 

This next one is a toss play where they get LT Julian Pearl (the frontside tackle) out into space and paving the way, with help from the WR Bryant blocking: 

Illinois doesn't quite have the blocking set up to execute this end-around for Williams, but the play design is again mesmerizing: 

Watching Illinois this week I found myself believing even more in Bert's project in Champaign, despite already being this site's resident Bert believer to begin with. They don't quite have the ideal horses up front yet- the run blocking was just alright and Brown does quite a bit of work to help make the run offense effective- but the concepts are there. Bielema and OC Barry Lunney's combo is a match made in heaven and if they can begin to build a more vintage Bielema OL, and perhaps pair it with a slightly more athletic QB who can throw a bit deeper down the field, this could be a really exciting offense. For now, it's limited in what it can do, but there is a future here. 

 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

This is an intriguing game because Illinois and Michigan have offenses that are mirror images of the other, both constructed around a team philosophy of wanting to get a lead and then strangle you with time of possession. Illinois is at its best with the lead, gaining 3-4 yards at a time, and milking the clock. They don't do as well playing from behind, with very little big play explosivity in the wheelhouse. The objective here is to try and bog down the run and force DeVito to play in 3rd & 9 rather than 3rd & 4. The play designs and talents of Isaiah Williams mean that they will find ways to get receivers open in 3rd & short situations and we know DeVito is accurate at making those throws. But backed up on 3rd & long? Different story.

If Michigan can stay ahead in the game, and ahead of the downs on defense, it will force Illinois out of its comfort zone and into terrain they don't fare well in, which is the big key. Winning battles in the trenches and limiting Brown's ability to grind out extra yards on the ground will set up those opportunities to get off the field, down and distances where Brown is less of a factor and more pressure is put on the non-Williams receivers and DeVito's ability to deliver throws he doesn't often make. That's the formula.