bret bielema

[Patrick Barron]

Now that's some good newspapering. Notre Dame, always losing to Notre Dame by 275.

Typical Notre Dame.

He's probably thinking about his roster. Excellent candid shot from a Harbaugh coaching clinic appearance:

I also enjoy Bielema looking like a popular meme cat from a decade ago.

Stoned-Cat

There are memes old enough to be Baby Gronk, if you want to feel old. Please do not google Baby Gronk if you have never heard of him, you will die and not be allowed into heaven.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Otaku Kris Jenkins?] 

YOU ARE OUR LORD AND SAVIOR, JAKE MOODY [Patrick Barron]

Raise your hand if you had November 26 on your mind as you turned on the TV today to watch Michigan vs. Illinois. Raise your hand if your thoughts have mostly been concentrated on The Game, on Ohio State's defense and their great receivers, on the stakes of a vaunted 11-0 vs. 11-0 clash. Raise your hand if you have booked hotel rooms in Indianapolis just in case and have been scheming up CFP scenarios. If your hand is raised, you are in the same boat as Michigan Football, who rested key starters on injury precaution, rolled out a vanilla game plan, and were late to adjust when things got tight. Michigan seemingly did not respect the hungry, desperate, violent, and well-coached Illinois Fighting Illini across from them until it was nearly too late, taking shots to the mouth and staring down the specter of an undefeated season slipping away before a clutch fourth quarter- boosted by three massive FGs from Jake Moody- turned the tide and got them a victory. It was ugly, but a win is a win. 

The funny thing is that the game did not seem like it would be a nail-biter early... or really for the entirety of the first half. The first drive of the game for Michigan was exactly how they drew it up, with a Blake Corum 37 yard run getting things going. JJ McCarthy got in rhythm, three passes to get Michigan inside the ten and then the Wolverines bully-balled their way into the end zone for Corum's 18th TD of the season. Just like that it was 7-0. After Michigan forced a three-and-out on Illinois' opening possession of the game, this game seemed to be on track for another comfortable win. 

Wind played a factor in this game and with the wind at their backs, Illinois was able to pin Michigan inside the five for the second series. That didn't matter much at first, a brilliant RB screen to Corum on 3rd down picked up 41, and could have gone for more if Corum had not gone out of bounds. Michigan drove into Illini territory but then ran out of gas after two Corum runs were stuffed. Rather than lining Jake Moody up for a long FG into the wind, they punted. Brad Robbins delivered a dismal punt (the wind played a role) for just 19 yards. 

[Patrick Barron]

Still, Michigan was in command. Their defense muzzled Illinois quickly for another three-and-out and their third drive got out to midfield before stalling. Roman Wilson couldn't come down with a catchable ball, a pass was too high for Max Bredeson and pressure forced McCarthy out of bounds. Michigan punted again but were only able to get Illinois down to the 20 yard line. The Fighting Illini started to get going on this drive, Chase Brown finding more running room on the ground and Tommy DeVito finding his groove drove Illinois into Michigan territory but it was their turn to see a drive unravel. Isaiah Williams caught a pass just short of the sticks and Illinois decided to go for it on 4th & 1. Michigan trotted out a pair of true freshman DTs in Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham and the duo stuffed Brown on the attempt, forcing a huge turnover on downs. 

Michigan was unable to capitalize on the solid field position due to an extremely questionable holding call on a great passing play from McCarthy to Roman Wilson and the ball was quickly back in the hands of Illinois, where the offense picked up where it left off. Illinois began to use tempo more heavily and the higher pace allowed them to land a few body blows on the Michigan defense. Chase Brown was running hard, Isaiah Williams flashed as an end-around specialist, and DeVito continued his strong day. Those three powered Illinois into the red zone and the team lined up to go for it on 4th & 1 from the 6. Unfortunately a false start negated the opportunity and they settled for a FG to cut the deficit to 7-3. 

The home team got the ball back with 4:03 remaining in the first half and had their best drive since the opener. Corum was churning out yards on the ground and McCarthy threw a strike to Ronnie Bell into a hole in Illinois' zone defense (one of their few zone snaps all day). It was 2nd & 10 on the Illinois 17 when Michigan gave the ball to Corum, who cut outside, around the corner, and then took a direct helmet shot to his left knee. Corum visibly reacted instantly, causing him to drop the ball just before hitting the ground. Replay officials determined that it was a fumble and Illinois had recovered, in part due to the Michigan players stopping to look after their teammate in screaming pain. Not just had Michigan lost its superstar RB for (essentially) the rest of the game, but they had turned it over inside the 15. 

Illinois got the ball back with 1:38 remaining but a holding penalty prevented any chance of a two minute drill. Set to get the ball out of halftime, Bret Bielema was content to run the clock down and head to the locker room trailing 7-3. Though the game was competitive at halftime, most Michigan fans were more concerned about the health of Corum than about losing the game. As it would turn out, their fear on the former turned out to be somewhat unfounded, while their lack of fear about the latter was glaringly absent. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More recap]

Two notable players who will be playing on Saturday are in this picture, which is pretty rare for a 3-year-old picture [Patrick Barron]

Previously: Illinois Offense 2022

For much of this year the Illinois defense has reigned supreme in the conference and nation as one of the NCAA's top defenses. Through eight weeks, they'd allowed 6, 23, 3, 0, 10, 6, 14, and 9 points and national outlets began to focus in on the Fighting Illini's defensive prowess, a season after having lost a number of last year's defensive stars to graduation. It was an impressive story, but the last couple weeks have put a bit of a dent in the narrative. Though they held MSU under 300 yards, 23 points against in a loss was not quite as smothering and then last weekend's clash against Purdue was a rough performance comparatively: 379 yards and 31 points allowed, not to mention that several key defensive players sustained injuries in a penalty-filled loss. Now the shorthanded Illinois defense will be playing with a hand (or perhaps a few fingers) tied behind their back as they play the best offense they've seen this season in Michigan. 

 

The Film: This one was pretty obvious. Illinois has faced exactly one offense I would classify as "good" and that came last weekend in the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue is not a perfect outfit, pass-reliant and somewhat limited in the rushing game, but they are statistically a good offense and the best that the Illini have seen. It also happens to be the most recent game, so it was an easy choice. 

Personnel: Click for big or here for PDF

The most difficult part of analyzing this defense is classifying it, because the personnel shifts around pretty often. What stays constant (for the most part) is three down linemen, Keith Randolph Jr.Calvin Avery, and Jer'Zhan Newton. They have not budged much this season and are a big part of why Illinois has allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards per game in the NCAA this season. Newton adds the most pass rush of the three, but all of them are stout in run defense. If Michigan is able to shove these guys around, it will be a very good sign going into The Game. Jamal Woods and TeRah Edwards rotate in as the reserves but the main three are solid starters and not rotational ones. 

After that, things get a bit sketchy in terms of personnel. They have the ability to do an old school Wisconsin 3-4 with EDGE/OLB pass rusher type guys, Seth Coleman and Gabe Jacas being the "starters". I didn't get to see Coleman against Purdue as he missed that one with injury, but has a shot to be back against Michigan. Jacas was fine but didn't stand out to my eye. Alec Bryant played in Coleman's place against the Boilermakers and was also unremarkable as a passrusher but did get victimized in the QB run game a couple times. 

The ILBs see significant rotation, sometimes with those OLBs and sometimes with themselves. Tarique Barnes and Calvin Hart Jr. are the nominal starters, but Isaac Darkangelo has played essentially the same amount as those two, mixing and matching the personnel based on the play and situation. Darkangelo is the one I had the most notes on, doing alright against Purdue, and he's actually the highest graded of the three via PFF, while Hart's grades straddle cyan range. When the Illini are fully healthy, the LB level is the relative weak spot of the defense. 

The secondary is led by Devon Witherspoon, the Dangerman for this week's piece and a stud who has excelled in Illinois' man coverage scheme. Jartavius "Quan" Martin is the starting nickel and was alright against Purdue, while the other outside corner position has been thrown into disarray due to a litany of injuries. Tyler Strain entered concussion protocol against the Boilermakers and his status is up in the air for Michigan. Terrell Jennings has been ruled out for the season with a different recent injury, leaving Xavier Scott as the tenuous starter if Strain cannot go. I have no notes on Scott because the Strain injury occurred rather late in the Purdue game and in total, Scott has played 23 snaps in his NCAA career. The little he got to play against Purdue suggested that that might be a weak spot but I need to see more of him to really know. 

The safety position includes Sydney Brown, a multi-year star who plays a number of his snaps in the box, and Kendall Smith, the deep safety who often plays in the parking lot. Tahveon "Taz" Nicholson plays some corner and safety, but he also has suffered a significant injury that will put him out for the remainder of the season, so Matthew Bailey is probably next up at this spot. I would not expect Brown or Smith to come off much, though. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: rest of the breakdown]