Previously: Illinois Offense 2022

For much of this year the Illinois defense has reigned supreme in the conference and nation as one of the NCAA's top defenses. Through eight weeks, they'd allowed 6, 23, 3, 0, 10, 6, 14, and 9 points and national outlets began to focus in on the Fighting Illini's defensive prowess, a season after having lost a number of last year's defensive stars to graduation. It was an impressive story, but the last couple weeks have put a bit of a dent in the narrative. Though they held MSU under 300 yards, 23 points against in a loss was not quite as smothering and then last weekend's clash against Purdue was a rough performance comparatively: 379 yards and 31 points allowed, not to mention that several key defensive players sustained injuries in a penalty-filled loss. Now the shorthanded Illinois defense will be playing with a hand (or perhaps a few fingers) tied behind their back as they play the best offense they've seen this season in Michigan. 

The Film: This one was pretty obvious. Illinois has faced exactly one offense I would classify as "good" and that came last weekend in the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue is not a perfect outfit, pass-reliant and somewhat limited in the rushing game, but they are statistically a good offense and the best that the Illini have seen. It also happens to be the most recent game, so it was an easy choice. 

Personnel: Click for big or here for PDF. 

The most difficult part of analyzing this defense is classifying it, because the personnel shifts around pretty often. What stays constant (for the most part) is three down linemen, Keith Randolph Jr., Calvin Avery, and Jer'Zhan Newton. They have not budged much this season and are a big part of why Illinois has allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards per game in the NCAA this season. Newton adds the most pass rush of the three, but all of them are stout in run defense. If Michigan is able to shove these guys around, it will be a very good sign going into The Game. Jamal Woods and TeRah Edwards rotate in as the reserves but the main three are solid starters and not rotational ones. 

After that, things get a bit sketchy in terms of personnel. They have the ability to do an old school Wisconsin 3-4 with EDGE/OLB pass rusher type guys, Seth Coleman and Gabe Jacas being the "starters". I didn't get to see Coleman against Purdue as he missed that one with injury, but has a shot to be back against Michigan. Jacas was fine but didn't stand out to my eye. Alec Bryant played in Coleman's place against the Boilermakers and was also unremarkable as a passrusher but did get victimized in the QB run game a couple times. 

The ILBs see significant rotation, sometimes with those OLBs and sometimes with themselves. Tarique Barnes and Calvin Hart Jr. are the nominal starters, but Isaac Darkangelo has played essentially the same amount as those two, mixing and matching the personnel based on the play and situation. Darkangelo is the one I had the most notes on, doing alright against Purdue, and he's actually the highest graded of the three via PFF, while Hart's grades straddle cyan range. When the Illini are fully healthy, the LB level is the relative weak spot of the defense. 

The secondary is led by Devon Witherspoon, the Dangerman for this week's piece and a stud who has excelled in Illinois' man coverage scheme. Jartavius "Quan" Martin is the starting nickel and was alright against Purdue, while the other outside corner position has been thrown into disarray due to a litany of injuries. Tyler Strain entered concussion protocol against the Boilermakers and his status is up in the air for Michigan. Terrell Jennings has been ruled out for the season with a different recent injury, leaving Xavier Scott as the tenuous starter if Strain cannot go. I have no notes on Scott because the Strain injury occurred rather late in the Purdue game and in total, Scott has played 23 snaps in his NCAA career. The little he got to play against Purdue suggested that that might be a weak spot but I need to see more of him to really know. 

The safety position includes Sydney Brown, a multi-year star who plays a number of his snaps in the box, and Kendall Smith, the deep safety who often plays in the parking lot. Tahveon "Taz" Nicholson plays some corner and safety, but he also has suffered a significant injury that will put him out for the remainder of the season, so Matthew Bailey is probably next up at this spot. I would not expect Brown or Smith to come off much, though. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: rest of the breakdown]

Base set: Against Purdue, Illinois was running what looked to me like a 5-2 of sorts. Example: 

The three down linemen take up the middle, then generally they had two stand-up edge guys, one of which being a true OLB and the other being an ILB (interestingly enough). The other ILB played the MIKE spot in the middle of the defense and the second guy in the "2" part of the "5-2" was actually box safety Sydney Brown. Then you have the corners in man and finally a staple of the Illinois defense, the free safety lined up all the way in Rockford, IL. 

As a man team, the alignment was contingent on personnel to some degree, with it getting spread out when Purdue went five wide, but they seemed inclined to want to stack the line of scrimmage with five players when possible, leaving the second level comparatively thin. Here's what it looks like spread out: 

Five at the line, five spread out in man coverage, and then a FS so deep he's not even in the picture. I don't know how much this alignment was matchup-dependent but I can only report on what they did against Purdue and this was the base set. 

Man or zone coverage: Illinois runs Man-1/Cov1 as their base scheme, putting them squarely in the man coverage arena. That constitutes the vast majority of plays for the Illini defense, although they did sprinkle in some zone when they were dropping eight into coverage against Purdue (see below). Something to keep in mind, but man is the norm. 

Pressure: Illinois comes in with a fascinating pressure score, rushing fewer than four players on 21.6% of snaps, a pretty significant number.... yet also rushing more than four on 48.7% of snaps, one of the most blitzy numbers I've tracked this season. In other words, on ~70% of the snaps against Purdue, Illinois was either blitzing or dropping eight into coverage. What's going on here? Well, Illinois started the game rushing only three but didn't like the results so they went back to the bread-and-butter, which has been a healthy dose of blitzes. It's also worth pointing out that since they play in what looked like a 5-2 front, many of these "blitzes" are merely rushing all five guys at the line, not necessarily sending an LB or corner. However, there were plenty of 6 and 7-man pressures too. 

Dangerman: Today we're going with star CB Devon Witherspoon. Witherspoon was one of only a few returning starters entering the year after getting the start in 10 games last season for the Fighting Illini and this year his level of play has ascended to a new level. He was named a mid-season All-American by PFF and as of this writing, Witherspoon is PFF's #1 graded corner in the entire country(!). Witherspoon has thrived this season to become the star of the Illinois defense and coverage in man defense is his speciality. This PBU stood out, my apologies for what will be the most seizure-inducing clip I show you this season (blame ESPN not me): 

This game was a lot of fun because Witherspoon got to go up against Charlie Jones, Purdue's star WR and one of the better receivers in the conference. On this next clip, Witherspoon got the better of Jones, getting in position and snatching an INT, one that would be erased by a horrible DPI call: 

If you want a replay showing what was going on there, click here to see it. I don't really know what Witherspoon did wrong, given that Jones initiated contact. He won the battle for positioning and made the catch. Dude got hosed. 

I also liked his tackling ability... watch as he rocks Devin Mockabee on this screen pass, shooting down and crunching him: 

I flagged this next play because it took every bit of energy in Witherspoon's body to bring down Purdue TE Payne Durham short of the sticks after the catch, but he just did succeed: 

As a whole, Purdue was able to exploit some vulnerabilities in Illinois' coverage, but Witherspoon was far from the issue, faring better than any other Boilermaker corner in coverage. He is a dependable cover corner who has been great all year long and showed some additional upside as a tackler, even if he's not the tallest or heaviest guy in the world. 

Overview 

The first thing to address with Illinois and its defense is the quality of competition. Yes, what Illinois has done is extremely impressive regardless of opponent and yes metrics like SP+, which rate this defense very highly, are opponent-adjusted, but it's still something to talk about. The collection of opposing offenses Illinois has played is dreadful, as you can see from this list of opponent and SP+ offensive rank in parentheses: 

• Wyoming: 119th
• Indiana: 66th
• Virginia: 114th
• Chattanooga: FCS 
• Wisconsin: 65th
• Iowa: 107th 
• Minnesota: 71st 
• Nebraska: 68th 
• MSU: 49th 
• Purdue: 30th 

Youch! Not exactly a murderer's row here. Of course, part of it is the B1G is not a good offensive league this year, but avoiding PSU/Michigan/OSU to date has helped Illinois bolster their stats and face teams that are unlikely to challenge them in any way. They were being challenged by Nebraska before Casey Thompson got injured in that game and it would've been interesting to see how it played out if not for the injury. After Thompson exited, Illinois was off the hook. Otherwise, they were coasting against bad offenses, then played MSU who are not good but also not terrible, and then against a good passing game in Purdue, some issues popped up. 

Some will rightly point out that those issues popped up in conjunction with injuries to the secondary and that is correct, but those injuries will still apply for Michigan, so they must be factored in. As we turn our focus to the Purdue game, what happened in that one? Illinois did fine in run defense between the tackles, with a good showing from the DL, but had some lapses trying to contain runs outside the tackles, particularly when Purdue dialed up the option like it was 2007 all over again. Purdue rushed for 4.3 YPC as a team, but most of the damage was done on a few plays, ones like this: 

Here you had two problems that popped up in run defense on display, edges being frozen on option plays, and athletic problems from the LBs (in this clip it is Isaac Darkangelo #38), allowing RBs to turn the corner. On this next one, you have the response from the Illinois defense, using the edge to cover the pitch and instead allowing the QB to break a long run, aided by Darkangelo overrunning it and exposing himself to a block: 

That was the source of the issues that Purdue gave Illinois on the ground, something to remember for Michigan's gameplan but only so useful because the Boilermakers and Wolverines are very different sorts of teams. Purdue doesn't run it much and they do their best work to the outside. Michigan is probably going to try and load up and bullyball Illinois, even if the defensive interior is one of the main pillars of the defense, which it is. Purdue didn't have much success against it: 

But Purdue doesn't have Olu Oluwatimi and Zak Zinter in the middle of their OL. There's been plenty of times this year where I've said "ehhh I don't think you can run on those DTs consistently" and then Michigan pounded them into a pulp, so until we see a set of DTs Michigan can't hammer, I'm going to assume they'll have some success against them. This is the toughest test for Michigan's IOL since the consecutive games where we saw Mustipher and Jacob Slade. Keith Randolph Jr. is a very good player: 

So is Jer'Zhan Newton, who was probably their best interior pass rusher, though they don't get a ton of interior pass rush. Here he and Randolph combine on a blitz, forcing O'Connell to get it out before he'd like for an incompletion: 

DT #4 second to the bottom of the line

Illinois did not get much organic pressure in this game but they help counteract it with their heavy blitz rate. It didn't get home all that much against the Boilermakers because Purdue's passing offense did well to get the ball out quickly, but there were some signs of things that will appear against Michigan. Like I mentioned in the pressure section, the most common "blitz" is just sending the five guys lined up at the line of scrimmage, which you've seen in plenty of clips already. Sometimes they do dial up the "send the house" seven man rush though: 

I used that clip because it's a good segue into what worked pretty well for Purdue through the air in this game, namely TE Payne Durham. For those unfamiliar, Durham is among the very best TEs in the conference this year and he gave Illinois matchup problems. A man defense is often asking an ILB like Darkangelo or a S like Sydney Brown to cover Durham, who are around 6'0" tall and between 200-230 lbs. Durham stands 6'5", 265 lbs. The clip I showed you of Witherspoon trying to tackle Durham was an example of this issue when a corner was on him, and in the above clip you see FS Kendall Smith trying to battle with Durham and it was no match. Durham's other TD in this game saw him dunk on CB Xavier Scott in the end zone: 

Yes, he toe-tapped that for a TD. If Luke Schoonmaker is back healthy for this game, that is a gigantic mismatch for Michigan to exploit in an athletic and size sense. Even if it's Colston Loveland, it's probably a mismatch, especially if a corner is on him. The Wolverines will likely have that advantage available to them. 

As for the rest of the secondary, Illinois has played well as a man defense this season, but again, quality of competition is a caveat. Against a good passing offense like Purdue, there were some warning signs on display besides Durham. Charlie Jones was held in check by Witherspoon, but that other outside corner spot as well as the nickel were problem areas. TJ Sheffield was Purdue's leading receiver by yardage and he toasted nickel Quan Martin here with a double move: 

One of the few times that Jones got free in this game came when he got a reprieve from Witherspoon and faced Martin, beating him on a fade here + a perfect throw from O'Connell: 

I don't have as many notes on the other outside corner spot as I would like, but that's because the injury to Strain came later in the game and as I said in the personnel section, the replacement Xavier Scott is extremely new to college football. There's very little tape on him in any game available. It's probably a weak spot, but maybe it won't be? What I can say about these corners as a unit is that they are well coached and they know how to play the position. They might be a bit handsy (hit with several DPIs in this game... a few were not great calls) but that aggressiveness also rewarded them with an INT that counted in this game and should've gotten them another that didn't.

The problem with the corners is that they aren't super athletically talented. That Bert's staff turned Witherspoon into an elite B1G corner is a great testament to their ability considering he didn't even get a ranking from 24/7 out of HS, but it's important to remember that very fact: this was a guy who had offers from UMass and South Alabama. Xavier Scott and Quan Martin were both 3* guys who were outside the top 1400 in the composite. Illinois is one of the B1G's least talented teams- great coaching that they were within a nose of the B1G West title, but also exploitable when they go up against a team like Michigan. And running man is going to expose you to some problems when you face vastly superior athletes. Not too many of those on the schedule and thankfully most passing offenses in the B1G West don't have a pulse, but let's just say these aren't the kind of guys who are staying in front of a fully healthy Roman Wilson. 

Against Purdue they were given some cushion on occasion and that often contributed to Purdue's ability to complete shorter passes, out routes and the like, to keep the chains moving. Even Witherspoon wasn't shutting off a quick pass to a top notch receiver like Charlie Jones: 

This kind of throw was there all day, especially when Illinois decided to give Martin/Strain/Scott a cushion: 

Illinois did well to not get hit with too many bombs, but Purdue stitched together some sizable drives running outside the tackles and connecting on throws like that one. That was the bulk of the formula, and the availability of those sorts of throws are what allowed O'Connell to get the ball out quickly and avoid sacks. All of this is a long way of saying that Illinois deserves a lot of credit for their secondary but their players have limitations and playing the scheme they do, they will still get carved up by route artisans and they still are in trouble if they have to try and hang with a top notch athlete. Michigan will have the best athletes they've seen this season by far. 

One last note before I wrap this up: Illinois took a ton of penalties against Purdue. That was a feisty game and tempers flared and I mentioned the questionable DPI calls, but even beyond that, there were several massive flags that there's no debate over. Just sloppiness from the Fighting Illini. They took a roughing the passer call on a passing play that only went for 5 yards on first down. Two plays later they pulled a Shawn Crable (I'm sorry) and hammered O'Connell as he was throwing the ball away on his way to the sideline. That would've been 3rd & 10 upcoming and instead the personal foul was an automatic first down. Purdue scored a TD on that drive. Stupid penalties cursed Illinois in this game and it is a story line for the season. The NCAA doesn't differentiate offense vs. defense for this metric but as a team Illinois ranks 119th in the FBS in penalty yards per game against, with 69 (nice) penalty yards per game being inflicted on themselves. Michigan is probably likely to get a few gifts and if that crew from the Purdue game is working this one, the Jane Coaston All-PI Offense might be in session. 

What does this mean for Michigan?  

On paper this is one of the best defenses Michigan has played. On paper this is one of the best defensive fronts Michigan has faced. That latter point is still probably true but yet I don't entirely believe Illinois will be able to drag Michigan into the mud. I need to see these DTs gum up Michigan's run game to believe it is likely that they are able to hold it in check. Tying down the rushing attacks of Iowa or even Wisconsin is one thing, but this Michigan group is another. Brian coronated it yesterday as the best Michigan running game he has charted and it is certainly one of the most impressive I can recall. Even if the DTs hang in there against Olu and Zinter, they run with light boxes at the second level. What if the LB isn't in position? And even if everyone is in position and firing on all cylinders, Purdue had success hitting the edge runs and exploiting athleticism concerns from the LBs.

On top of all of this, if Michigan wants to throw the ball, they will have the edge athletically against the corners, and one of those corners has played in one game of note in his NCAA career. There are just too many ways for Michigan's offense to hurt an opponent and Purdue's offense, a worse one than Michigan, was able to score 31 points at over 5 yards per play. I don't anticipate Illinois is going to crack and this turns into a blowout, but Michigan will have the advantage in so many different places on paper that even if the Illini hang in there in one spot, the home team will have an edge somewhere else to exploit.