your 2020 starters? [Bryan Fuller]

The Enemy, Ranked: Defensive Line Comment Count

Ace October 13th, 2020 at 3:26 PM

Previously: QuarterbackRunning BackWide Receiver & Tight End, Offensive Line

I'm bringing back this preview feature from before my time off; the exercise is to rank Michigan's opponents, as well as the Wolverines themselves, in each position group. This is particularly useful to do in a year when roster turnover and late-offseason changes (laaaaaaaaaaaaaate-offseason changes) are so prevalent; I'll do my best in these posts to highlight significant opt-outs, opt-ins, and the like.

Maybe we'll start the defensive line with something fun and different ah fu--

Tier I: Not Something Fun and Different

Jonathon Cooper is still here, somehow [Barron]

1. Ohio State. So the good news is the Buckeyes lost a lot, including #2 overall pick Chase Young and pretty much all their DT production, from last year's stellar defensive line:

Returning production

  1. Linebacker: 75 percent of tackles; 63 percent of TFLs; 68 percent of sacks
  2. Defensive end: 54 percent of tackles; 43 percent of TFLs; 40 percent of sacks
  3. Defensive tackle: 39 percent of tackles; 28 percent of TFLs; 0 percent of sacks

The bad news, which you saw coming a mile away, is that the replacements are talented even by OSU standards:

Average rank as recruits, according to the 247Sports Composite

  1. Defensive tackle (0.9389)
  2. Defensive end (0.9326)
  3. Linebacker (0.9298)
  4. Cornerback (0.9282)
  5. Safety (0.9194)

DE Zach Harrison, the #12 overall recruit in the 2019 class, is the next edge terror in the Young/Bosa/Bosa lineage; he posted 3.5 sacks in limited, impressive time last year. Taron Vincent was the #1 DT in the 2018 class and should be healthy after a shoulder injury forced a sophomore-year redshirt. Both could break out in a huge way this year.

DE Jonathon Cooper was a serviceable starter and team captain before injuries derailed his 2019 season; he's back for a fifth year. DE Tyreke Smith was the #34 overall prospect in 2018. Two seniors and a junior fill out the two-deep at tackle. The only potential concern is if a couple DTs go down—and there's still plenty of young talent around to fill gaps. Blergh.

2. Penn State. While PSU finished 25th nationally in sack rate instead of first like the Buckeyes (sigh), they posted essentially the same line yards allowed, with both teams finishing in the top ten.

Like OSU, the Nittany Lions lose a top-flight pass-rusher: Yetur Gross-Matos, a second-round pick after recording a combined 35 TFLs and 17.5 sacks over the last two seasons. They also have a replacement who may be up to replacing much of that production right away: Jayson Oweh, the #76 prospect in 2018 who was billed as a higher-ranked version of Josh Uche. At the other end, Shaka Toney returns after nearly leaving for the NFL himself; he's a solid pass-rusher who plays better against the run than you'd expect of a lineman listed at 236 pounds.

There's also fifth-year DE Shane Simmons, a top-50 recruit who's yet to live up to expectations but has been behind some very good players. There's a lot of experience on the interior, with Robert Windsor—mostly a pass-rush specialist—the only significant loss from last year's group, which was fantastic against the run. While there may be some pass-rush dropoff, this will at least be a difficult line to move off the ball, and Oweh provides them with a potential edge-rushing nightmare.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the rankings.]

Tier II: Solid and Unspectacular or Talented and Worrisome

[Barron]

3. Wisconsin. The Badgers generally have strong D-lines that are overlooked because of the nature of the 3-4 defense, which funnels most of the statistical glory to the linebackers. This one is no different. They finished second in the country in sack rate despite no lineman surpassing four sacks. None of them had more than a couple run TFLs, either, even though Wisconsin finished top-30 in most advanced run metrics and first in power success rate.

All three starters return. You won't hear their names much. They're the guys who absorb blocks and won't move off the got-dang ball while those pesky linebackers fly around the field unabated. Isaiahh "Spellcheckk" Loudermilk and Garrett Rand are senior starters at DE. Nose tackle Bryson Williams returns after missing eight games to injury in 2019. In his stead, Keeanu Burton played so well that some who follow the program consider him the team's best lineman heading into his sophomore year.

Surprise! A Wisconsin position group is rock-solid.

4. Michigan. There's plenty of tantalizing potential on this line. DE Kwity Paye landed atop Bruce Feldman's Freaks List following an outrageous team combine performance. He's already a productive technician; evidently he also has enough edge-bending upside to make him a first-round prospect in the eyes of some draft projectors. Meanwhile, the end most team insiders believe is going to be the best on the team plays across from Paye:

So much, of course, depends on the state of the tackle position. Paye and Hutchinson spent a lot of 2019 crashing inside to help the DTs stop the run or generate some interior pressure. Carlo Kemp was miscast as a nose tackle. The hope is Kemp is able to be more impactful at three-tech while former high school All-Americans Chris Hinton and Mazi Smith shore up the nose in their second years on campus. Donovan Jeter is the requisite size to play nose and could be the plugger Michigan needs, too.

Beyond those mostly unproven players, though, there's not much else. Julius Welschof is a fascinating prospect as a German import entering his third year in the program; hopefully it's not too soon to expect production out of him. Depth is perilously thin at tackle, a spot where you normally want 4-5 viable players rotating through. Still, it's hard to ignore two potential NFL DEs, and there are at least some former blue chips entering the phase when they should be making an impact.

This is a situation where outsiders may have a more optimistic and accurate read on the situation than those like us prone to fretting over worst-case scenarios—so long as there aren't any absenses on the interior, at least.

Tier III: Meh

5. Michigan State. MSU's three best defensive linemen from last year are gone, including a couple standouts in DT Raekwon Williams and DE Kenny Willekes. DT Naquan Jones, who's been a decent rotation player, is a former top-250 prospect and a lock to hold down a starting spot. Jones has plenty of (largely untapped) potential, which is more than you can say for most of the guys plugged into the two-deep:

Other than Jones, there aren’t any four-star prospects on the roster. At defensive tackle, he’s joined by Jacob Slade — a good-looking player who wasn’t highly recruited out of high school, ranking outside the top-1,000 in the 2018 class. Jalen Hunt has drawn rave reviews as a reserve defensive tackle. At defensive end, Jacub Panasiuk and Drew Beesley are the projected starters. Panasiuk was the No. 579 prospect in the 2017 class, while Beesley is a walk-on.

The only returning starter is Jacub Panasiuk, whom we've referred to interchangeably as "The Bad Panasiuk" or "The Cheap Panasiuk" to distinguish him from his now-graduated brother Mike, the other departed starter at DT. Yes, Willekes starred as a walk-on, but expecting anything similar out of Beesley seems optimistic.

This was one of the best run-stopping D-lines in the country last year and decent at getting to the quarterback. MSU retained most of their defensive coaching staff, including eighth-year DL coach Ron Burton. You can expect a certain level of competence, particularly on the ground.

6. Minnesota. There are some decent players but all the stars from across the 2019 defense are gone, leaving behind mostly the unspectacular and the unproven. Minnesota had a decent pass rush, but a lot of it came from the departed Carter Coughlin; they'll need redshirt junior DE Boye Mafe, an offseason darling who flashed in a rotation role, to put up much bigger numbers.

They could be pushed around a bit on the ground, though they have upperclassmen with experience set to rotate through the interior. That run defense may get better; the pass rush is likely to drop off unless Mafe breaks out.

7. Indiana. From HTTV:

No lineman had more than five sacks or 7.5 tackles for loss in 2019. Jerome Johnson posted both of those figures and is a solid starter at three-tech. They need more from the edge; junior weakside end James Head had 2.5 sacks in a backup role and may be their best bet for a high- level pass-rusher. If that doesn’t sound like a great bet, well, I agree.

While, as mentioned, that doesn't sound great, there's at least some experience, and IU was merely subpar in both rush defense and pass rushing instead of abject.

Tier IV: Abject

can Michael Dwumfour save the Rutgers line? probably not. [Barron]

8. Maryland. As BiSB described in HTTV, the Terps run a base 3-4 or 2-4-5, which puts a lot of pressure on the line to stand up to blocks. They were not so great at this because they were asking people to defy science:

Much of this was physics; starting nose tackle Oluwaseun Oluwatimi is 5’11” and 297 pounds and starting defensive tackle Sam Okuayinonu is 6’1” and 285 pounds. Unless they’ve man- aged to gain the COVID 20 like the rest of us, Maryland will have to consider an expanded role for unproven commodities like redshirt freshman Anthony Booker Jr. and junior college transfer Ami Finau. Finau in particular is reportedly over 330 pounds, so his emergence would be a massive boost.

They were among the ten worst pass-rushing teams in the country. That's usually the thing you might be good at if you're undersized. Alas.

9. Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights finished 108th in line yards and 88th in sack rate in 2019. The latter figure overstates the rush generated by the line; the DL finished with only seven sacks of the team's 18 sacks in 12 games. They lost their best DT and best DE. Their best lineman may be Mike Dwumfour, the Michigan transfer whose inconsistent play kept him from making a major impact despite the team's significant need at the position.

It's a Rutgers unit.

Comments

AZBlue

October 13th, 2020 at 5:54 PM ^

I disagree with Ace on the placement of PSU.  They should probably be in the tier with M and probably not at the top of that tier.  It seems he is focusing on the 2019 success rate over actual players - and he either forgot or chose not to discuss the PSU DT situation.  From PSU podcasts I believe they have some pieces to replace in the DT 2-deep and while they have players - many are in the Jeter category in terms of on-field results.  Meanwhile M returns all 4 D-line starters from the end of last year (Pretty sure Hinton earned starter by at least the OSU game.) with numerous "bodies" available to rotate.

 

As for the PSU / M  Recruiting comparison last 4-5 classes -- M recruits slightly better and has ended up higher every year since 2016 EXCEPT PSU's banner 2018 class (#6 with 3-5stars).  

These are off the top of my head but I am confident are pretty accurate...this is by ratings NOT on-field success

QB -- M++

RB -- PSU ++ (several 5-stars due to Barkley effect)

WR -- Push or M+  (PSU fading in ratings last few cycles - plus had 5-star J. Shorter transfer to UF and 4-star Dunmore withdraw from school this week)

TE - PSU++ (Theo why!?)

OL - M++

DT - ? Push M+ (M low # but high ranks of true DTs and a lot of growers listed as SDE on sites)

DE - Push to slight PSU+ (Parsons counting at LB -- M has better #s but lower ranks)

LB - PSU++ (counting Parsons at LB , also PSU currently only has 1 non 4-5star LB on the roster)

CB - Push??  (PSU seems to grab a lot of Jucos here and at Safety)

S - M+ or M++ (Big #s and high ranks for M -- Wade was near 5star for PSU but a CB, several Jucos)

Maison Bleue

October 14th, 2020 at 9:21 AM ^

He is talking about QB recruiting and not the QB room.

As for the PSU / M  Recruiting comparison last 4-5 classes -- M recruits slightly better and has ended up higher every year since 2016 EXCEPT PSU's banner 2018 class (#6 with 3-5stars).  

If you include the 2021 class and go back to 2016 it looks like this:

UM

McCarthy - .9893

Peters - .9684

McCaffrey - .9435

Milton- .9202

McNamara- .9052

Villari- .8464

PSU

Clifford- .9223

Roberson- .9045

Zembeic(2016) - .8752

Levis- .8689

Bowens- .8851

Veilleux(2021) - .8817

So that's some ELITE QB recruiting from UM and pretty meh for PSU. Unfortunately, our QB recruiting hasn't really converted to the All-American type performance we hope for... Until this year... Please... For the love of Christ. /sorry, no religion

Watching From Afar

October 13th, 2020 at 4:46 PM ^

Does anyone remember the OL that started the season last year? They could barely muster 100 yards against Army and was in the 50s or 60s for a while when it came to running the ball IIRC. They turned out to be pretty good by season's end but it took a while to get it going and for Gattis and Warinner to piece together a coherent ground attack.

This year's line has a lower floor because of the inexperience and lack of Ruiz. However, having a tackle shaped LT instead of Runyan, returning Mayfield, and slotting in Stueber (who was neck and neck with Mayfield last fall) portends to the potential of the group if they get off the ground faster than last year's group. The biggest issue will be replacing Ruiz. Outside of him I think the OL can be as good, if not better.

Watching From Afar

October 14th, 2020 at 9:10 AM ^

Yes, and? He was good last year but the line as a whole wasn't good until a few games into the season.

Mayfield ended up being a 2020 preseason 1st round pick (mostly based off expected growth) but started off the year like a RS sophomore does and wasn't great.

Runyan was recovering from an injury and missed the first couple of games and looked stiff in his first one back.

Ruiz, Bredeson, and Onwenu were all very good throughout most of the year, but the play calling wasn't great, Patterson wasn't great, and overall they struggled to get the ball rolling on the ground.

maizenblue92

October 13th, 2020 at 4:31 PM ^

We have seen Hayes and Stueber perfrom well and Vastardis forced Spanellis to G and eventually out of the program. Those are 3 more positions I feel comfortable about. Not to mention they have recruited the OL very well and are in the 3rd year of Warinner coaching. I am confident in the OL being good, I am not as confident in the DL. 

Watching From Afar

October 13th, 2020 at 4:34 PM ^

That's not how your brain should think of it. Individual group rankings have to be relative to other team's group rankings from a top level conference perspective. Michigan's RBs are ranked 2nd in the Big Ten behind PSU (in these posts) so if you think Michigan's "strongest" position being ranked 4th is bad, you should be ecstatic about Michigan's 2nd or 3rd "strongest" position being ranked 2nd in the conference.

Regardless, Michigan's top position isn't necessarily DL.

LBs have 2 All-Conference upperclassmen in a position group of 3. The 3rd guy has been in the program for 3 years (Barrett).

RBs have 3 guys who would be sure fire starters at almost every program in the conference save PSU and OSU. Yet only 1 can start.

Safety depth isn't good, but Hill is an All-Conference (please be All-American) type as a true sophomore and Hawkins is solid. That's 2/2 as far as Big Ten starters go.

The DL has two top 5 conference DEs and an All-Big Ten (2nd or 3rd team) 3T but no sure fire 4th guy. So they have 2.5/4 whereas the LBs have 2/3 spots locked down. As it relates to OSU specifically, they have had the best DLs in the conference for most of the last 5 seasons because of Bosa/Bosa/Young and everyone else.

energyblue1

October 14th, 2020 at 9:14 AM ^

Paye/Hutch legit DE's maybe the best pair in the conference.  Kemp was a man by himself in the middle last year but now has much more help at the DT position.  We shall see.  The staff is confident in a 8 man rotation this year at both DE and DT positions having a full 2 deep and have said others will get PT as well. 

Jmo but the  biggest issue I have had is not getting players PT that are second/third team and wearing down the team in the last 2 or 3 games of the season.  The legs are gone.  So, each unit imo we have to see the second and third team players getting snaps.  Huge in recruiting, developing players and retaining players if they know they are seeing the field. 

Watching From Afar

October 14th, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^

Paye/Hutch legit DE's maybe the best pair in the conference.

Maybe. I'd still give it to OSU with Harrison (highest ceiling) and Cooper with some depth that I don't think Michigan has proven to have yet. If we broke this down to just DEs I think Michigan is 1B ahead of PSU but probably a slight tick off OSU.

I do think that moving Kempt to 3T is where he is better suited, however there is still no sure fire NT that we've seen. Jeter has been underwhelming. Hinton was really a 3T type coming in from HS where he was a DE and then grew into a 3T by his senior year. Not sure where he would be better off. Smith seems like the more natural NT but either way we haven't seen enough of either guy to say they're ready to take on Wisconsin or OSU up the gut.

MGoStrength

October 13th, 2020 at 6:27 PM ^

Beyond those mostly unproven players, though, there's not much else.

Really?  No mention of the #57 overall player and the #5 WDE, only 3 guys ranked behind Chase Young in the 2017 class in Luiji Vilain?  Also, wasn't Ojabo getting a lot of good reviews last year?  It seems like this would be his year to start to make some noise on the field.  And, of course we have the #5 SDE coming in as a freshman in Braiden McGregor who was a top 150 recruit.  It seems like there are several other guys, while unproven, not much less so than guys mentioned for OSU & PSU.  I'd be surprised if 1-2 of these guys doesn't make some solid contributions on the 2-deep.

azee2890

October 14th, 2020 at 9:40 AM ^

Agreed. This evaluation feels biased against UM for some reason. There are plenty of blue chip players along the defensive line. Hutchinson, Hinton, Vilain, and Smith were all blue chip recruits, Jeter was a solid 4* and Paye was a diamond in rough find. I don't see why Hinton can't be better than anyone on OSU's line besides Harrison. We have experience (Hutchinson, Paye, and Kemp) as well as talent (Hinton, Smith, Vilain). 

I get that last year left a sour taste in our mouths but I think the DL will be one of the most improved positions groups on the team with 2nd year Hinton and a full power Hutchinson/Paye. I personally think we will have the best or second best defensive line in the BIG10, depending on how OSU's talent develops. I think we have a better mix of talent and experience than anyone. 

Blake Forum

October 13th, 2020 at 7:03 PM ^

I get the concerns and pessimism from Michigan fans, but even with the loss of Uche, I expect this unit to improve a bit. Hutchinson and Paye are both monsters and should be freed up to do more if we can achieve merely B1G-average interior DL play. And I think that's likely as long as Hinton is ready to go and the other guys can rotate in and eat some blocks. Kemp should be able to contribute more if he's not being used as an NT. I don't expect spectacular impacts from the DTs, but that position was such a problem last year that I think merely being decent will be a major improvement felt across the defense

Mongo

October 13th, 2020 at 9:16 PM ^

Harbaugh quote today was “the DL is our identity”.  Said Hutch and Paye are “wow” type players.  Said Kemp, Hinton, Jeter are much improved and watch out for   Julius.   Exit camp healthy and the ceiling may be higher than the above take. 

Ohio State DL is over rated and Minnesota is going to stink upfront.  Can’t wait for the game 1 !

 

FrankTigers2

October 14th, 2020 at 11:14 AM ^

OSU DL is not overrated.  absolutely the best DL in the country, coached by the best.

 

if Michigan is ever ever ever going to beat OSU with consistency, there needs to be focus on what OSU is now doing best.

  • DL
  • QB
  • WR
  • DBs and Safeties....
  • Shit....just focus on everything.

azee2890

October 14th, 2020 at 11:52 AM ^

What makes you say the OSU DL is the best in the country? Harrison will probably be good this year but it's going to be hard to fill Chase Young's shoes. Sure their replacements are all top 100 players but isn't that the case for Clemson, Bama, and Georgia as well? Not to mention Kayvon Thibodeaux will be wreaking havoc out west for Oregon. 

In terms of recruiting certain position groups, everyone knows that DL, OL, QB, WR, and DB (One of the reasons why most of the top players in the country are at those position groups). 

Is OSU going to have the best DL in the BIG10? Probably. Will they have the best in the nation? Probably not.

Rafiki

October 14th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^

Interested in seeing Harrison this year. Not in a negative way though. He was a big recruiting battle and if I remember correctly he was bit of a project. 

buckeyejonross

October 14th, 2020 at 11:01 AM ^

Easiest way to summarize the 2020 DE situation at OSU is that no one is better than Chase Young (duh) but everyone will be better than whoever rotated opposite Chase Young all of 2019.

The new nose and 3tech will have more pedigree, but its concerning that 3tech Taron Vincent is still not fully recovered from the shoulder injury that caused him to miss all of 2019. Also, the 1b (Haskell Garrett) to Vincent's 1a at 3tech was shot in the face this summer. He should be able to play, but yea. Tommy Togiai at nose will be great. Who backs him up though? The drop-off last year from Hamilton to Togiai was nonexistent. It seems like backup nose Antwuan Jackson will have to start at 3tech while Vincent and Garrett recover, and then he'll slide back to backup nose when the normal 3techs are full-go. 

FrankTigers2

October 14th, 2020 at 11:08 AM ^

i still have yet to figure out why PSU let Larry Johnson go.  That guy is by far the best DL coach ever.

1.  His kids rarely underperform

2.  Top talent wants to play for him in every recruiting class

3.  Bosa, Bosa, Young....Now Harrison, Tuimoloau and Sawyer.