naquan jones

your 2020 starters? [Bryan Fuller]

Previously: QuarterbackRunning BackWide Receiver & Tight End, Offensive Line

I'm bringing back this preview feature from before my time off; the exercise is to rank Michigan's opponents, as well as the Wolverines themselves, in each position group. This is particularly useful to do in a year when roster turnover and late-offseason changes (laaaaaaaaaaaaaate-offseason changes) are so prevalent; I'll do my best in these posts to highlight significant opt-outs, opt-ins, and the like.

Maybe we'll start the defensive line with something fun and different ah fu--

Tier I: Not Something Fun and Different

Jonathon Cooper is still here, somehow [Barron]

1. Ohio State. So the good news is the Buckeyes lost a lot, including #2 overall pick Chase Young and pretty much all their DT production, from last year's stellar defensive line:

Returning production

  1. Linebacker: 75 percent of tackles; 63 percent of TFLs; 68 percent of sacks
  2. Defensive end: 54 percent of tackles; 43 percent of TFLs; 40 percent of sacks
  3. Defensive tackle: 39 percent of tackles; 28 percent of TFLs; 0 percent of sacks

The bad news, which you saw coming a mile away, is that the replacements are talented even by OSU standards:

Average rank as recruits, according to the 247Sports Composite

  1. Defensive tackle (0.9389)
  2. Defensive end (0.9326)
  3. Linebacker (0.9298)
  4. Cornerback (0.9282)
  5. Safety (0.9194)

DE Zach Harrison, the #12 overall recruit in the 2019 class, is the next edge terror in the Young/Bosa/Bosa lineage; he posted 3.5 sacks in limited, impressive time last year. Taron Vincent was the #1 DT in the 2018 class and should be healthy after a shoulder injury forced a sophomore-year redshirt. Both could break out in a huge way this year.

DE Jonathon Cooper was a serviceable starter and team captain before injuries derailed his 2019 season; he's back for a fifth year. DE Tyreke Smith was the #34 overall prospect in 2018. Two seniors and a junior fill out the two-deep at tackle. The only potential concern is if a couple DTs go down—and there's still plenty of young talent around to fill gaps. Blergh.

2. Penn State. While PSU finished 25th nationally in sack rate instead of first like the Buckeyes (sigh), they posted essentially the same line yards allowed, with both teams finishing in the top ten.

Like OSU, the Nittany Lions lose a top-flight pass-rusher: Yetur Gross-Matos, a second-round pick after recording a combined 35 TFLs and 17.5 sacks over the last two seasons. They also have a replacement who may be up to replacing much of that production right away: Jayson Oweh, the #76 prospect in 2018 who was billed as a higher-ranked version of Josh Uche. At the other end, Shaka Toney returns after nearly leaving for the NFL himself; he's a solid pass-rusher who plays better against the run than you'd expect of a lineman listed at 236 pounds.

There's also fifth-year DE Shane Simmons, a top-50 recruit who's yet to live up to expectations but has been behind some very good players. There's a lot of experience on the interior, with Robert Windsor—mostly a pass-rush specialist—the only significant loss from last year's group, which was fantastic against the run. While there may be some pass-rush dropoff, this will at least be a difficult line to move off the ball, and Oweh provides them with a potential edge-rushing nightmare.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the rankings.]

Tyriq Thompson is the most Bullough-like thing left

Previously: The Offense, MSU's defense last year. MSU's defense in 2017

Resources: My charting, MSU game notes, MSU roster, CFBstats

Michigan State runs a…

Match quarters defense.

Yes, which…

I'm having deja vu. Did you copy this lede from last year's article?

You were going to say "which brings the corners down to play tight man off the snap while the safeties have to cover for aggressive linebackers, who are squeezed on the inside because the defensive line can play spread out."

Right and that funnels everything back into the murdertackles and the murderbacker and you get Bullough'd by whichever Bullough or Bullough-like object they have now--what's his name, Bachie.

So about that.

The Film: Illinois, because this was the only game they've played since...

Personnel: My diagram:

image

PDF Version, full-size version (or click on the image)

...star MLB Joe Bachie was suspended for the rest of the season for getting caught taking PEDs. To replace him they moved hybrid WLB Antjuan Simmons (+13/-5 vs the run, +0/-3 coverage) inside, and brought in sophomore HSP Noah Harvey (+12.5/-1, +0/-5 cov) for the hybrid role. Since smallish SAM Tyriq Thompson (+9/-2, +1/-3 cov) played that role some last year, there's a lot of hybrid DNA on the field now and it shows. MSU linebacker is a playmaker position and all of these guys made them, if in different ways. Simmons is a Khaleke-type athlete who can rocket into gaps but gets ejected if he meets a blocker. The SAM job of Tyriq Thompson, who earned a lot of his stars by making a couple of checks that got one of his teammates in free when Illinois audibled, operates more like our idea of an MLB now with Bachie out so Simmons can be more seek-and-destroy. That's all they get from Harvey, who surprised me with his high grade mostly from rocketing out into space against the WR screen game (and one near game-winning bat-down). Harvey is the LB who becomes a pure pass rusher on their dime package, whence he made me wonder a few times if that was Willekes.

Speaking of HSP DNA, that job previously belonged to the older brother of SS David Dowell (+2/-2, +4/-5 cov). Andrew is gone and David is now a solid strong safety except when he has to cover deep, since his mind is very run/short pass-oriented. FS Xavier Henderson (+4/-7, +3/-3 cov) is a work in progress who'll probably be a good one in a year or two.

Both safeties got big coverage dings for abandoning their posts when poor third CB and jam specialist Shakur Brown (+2/-1, +10/-6), just returned from an injury hiatus, got singled up with Josh Imatorbhebhe, the Illini's 5-star USC transfer, on such plays you remember as The Hail Mary That Didn't Have to Hail TD at the end of the half and 4th & 16. Brown splits time with both Boundary CB Josh Butler (+2/-3 cov), the dude who interfered on the 4th down, and Field CB Josiah Scott (+1/-1, +4/-1 cov), a rootin'-tootin' hard-hitting 2nd team all-B1G candidate. DB Tre Person (+0/-2, +3/-3 cov), whom you might remember from such plays as the long DPJ touchdown or the mansome Nico Collins catch last year, is now their nickel, still about 160, and still slow. Backup safeties Michael Dowell (+1/-1, -3 cov) and Jacob Slade (-2 cov) came in for the slot safety dime role, blitzing half the time.

The defensive line are the same guys since what, 2017? We'll just cover the three stars in the dangerman section. The younger brother Jacub Panasiuk (+2.5/-2.5), well you remember him trying to break Ruiz's knees last year and you're right: you hope the powers that be keep Michigan's players safe because MSU is the program that won't. His backup Drew Beesley didn't get much time but little brother comes off the field for a linebacker on passing downs. We did get a steady rotation of their next generation of DTs. Very large blue chip NT Naquan Jones (+2/-2) is a Bryan Mone type. Freshman DT Jacob Slade (+1/-5) didn't stand out to me until I tallied up his score and realized what little running game Illinois got came by washing Slade out with doubles.

[After THE JUMP: fam.]

Top Five-Ish

Top-100 IL DE Josh King named a final five last Friday, including Michigan in the group along with Michigan State, Penn State, USC, and Notre Dame. According to 247's Steve Lorenz, Michigan State is believed to lead for King, while Michigan is potentially running second. King hasn't set a timeline for his decision.

In case anyone forgot how silly recruiting can be, three-star IL DT Naquan Jones felt compelled to release a "top five" of his own, despite only narrowing his choices to six schools*:

While this top group also has no order, it's pretty easy to glean that Wisconsin and Penn State are running behind the other four schools. Scout's Beth Long reports Jones will make his decision on June 5th, and his top schools were chosen largely based on his relationship with their respective coaching staffs, since he's only visited Michigan State and South Carolina among his top six. Michigan should get their shot; Jones told Scout's Josh Newkirk a pre-decision visit to Ann Arbor is in the works ($).

*To be clear, I'm not making fun of Jones here, but the near-universal, bizarre obsession with naming top fives and tens and almost never any other number.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup]