Late last week I put out a post on the message board asking for questions for a mailbag, as I haven't done one since the summer and now seems like a good time to fit one in. To no one's surprise, nearly all of the questions were football related. I picked the best 14 questions and if yours wasn't chosen, better luck next time. I did my best to pick as many good ones as possible, but there is never enough space for them all. Two quick notes on question topics: 1.) there were a lot of questions that are Rose Bowl gameplan-ish and I decided I will answer them in FFFF rather than here and 2.) several Donovan Edwards questions that I chose not to answer because you can read Seth's piece from last week. 

 

Assuming Coach stays and JJ leaves, what does the offense look like next year? (-Ray) 

I answered a version of this question in the summer that was focused on 2024 generally but now is a good time to check back in on the picture. The question assumes JJ is leaving, so the answer that has to be provided first is "who is playing QB?". I'm not sure any of us would feel great with the in-house QB options playing, but if JJ decides to leave in January it puts Michigan in a tougher spot in the portal, since many transfer QBs will have decided by then. If Michigan were able to land Dante Moore in the portal now, perhaps he could be an option, and obviously true freshman Jadyn Davis is an option, though I do not like the idea of a true freshman QB ever starting if his name is not Trevor Lawrence. I think Davis or Orji starting should be the fallback, with the idea that Michigan would dip into the portal in January or maybe after spring to look for options. 

Having either a transfer picked up later in the cycle or a Davis/Orji QB situation certainly limits the offense's ceiling compared to this year and it's the result of QB recruiting problems in the 2022/2023 classes. That said, the offense will be set up decently well to help whoever the QB is. I like the RB position no matter what Donovan Edwards plans to do, since Kalel Mullings has flashed and so has Ben Hall, not to mention that Cole Cabana could be operational and you're adding in a blue chip RB recruit in Jordan Marshall at a position where true freshmen can have big impacts.

The WR room is a bit in flux but if Michigan can land Donaven McCulley, that's a legit option in addition to Tyler Morris, who should have a larger role, and the current true freshmen (F. Moore/S. Morgan). Of course, having Colston Loveland around helps a lot too. It's unclear what the OL composition will look like, since a lot of it hinges on NFL decisions from Barnhart/Trente/Myles Hinton/Nugent, but if even half come back, adding that next to Greg Crippen and Gio El-Hadi gives Michigan's OL a solid starting point. In other words, the RBs should be good, receiving options should be between adequate and good, and the same can be said for the OL. Life will be made easier on the QB, but there will still be a pretty sizable stepback overall if you don't have JJ as the singal-caller. Thankfully, the 2024 defense should be nasty. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More questions]

 

[Kevin C. Cox]

I heard that Michigan has been practicing all year specifically for OSU and Georgia. Now that the Bulldogs are out, how much of an adjustment is it to play Alabama? Also, how different/similar are Texas and Washington to anyone we have faced this year? - (mkelleycpa)

This is a good question. First of all, it's not entirely clear to me that the "Beat OSU" or "Beat Georgia" drills they run have any particular relation to those teams, other than being named that as ways to focus the team on the big picture. I don't go to practice, so I have no idea how specified they are! But from a gameplan perspective, this blog has written repeatedly on how Michigan practiced their "Ohio State defense" in games all season, so it is relevant. The coaches certainly do plan ahead. 

Defensively the two teams are pretty similar in terms of talent of the personnel at the different positional groups, with the biggest difference being EDGE talent for 'Bama creating matchup problems for Michigan. Instead I'd like to focus on offense, because that's the biggest difference between Georgia and Alabama: the TE position. Brock Bowers vs. a rather unexciting TE room. Bowers is the nation's most dominant TE and one of the most dominant to ever come through college, a focal point of Georgia's offense not just in the downfield passing attack, but how many screens they dial up for him too. Bowers missed three games but still led the team in catches (56), yards (713), and TD receptions (6). Bowers not being at 100% clearly hindered UGA in that SEC Championship Game and if Michigan were facing Georgia with a healthier Bowers in the CFP, the entire offensive gameplan would have to be built around stopping him. 

With Alabama the bigger concern is at WR. Their TEs have only been so-so, Amari Niblack and CJ Dippre (ex-Maryland Terrapin) have combined for only 28 catches this season and neither have good PFF grades, while WRs Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond have stolen the show in the receiving game. Burton in particular is the Dangerman of the pass offense if you ask me. Georgia has good WRs (Ladd McConkey, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Dominic Lovett) but I like Burton the most out of the two teams' groups. So more work for Will Johnson and CB2 will be tested more. 

To answer the Texas/Washington component of this, finding comparable teams on Michigan's schedule is difficult because the B1G was so bad. Washington's offense reminds me a bit of OSU 2021-22 with a QB who is an elite NFL passer throwing to NFL WRs where there is the "get pressure and it wobbles" weakness. Their defense has not impressed me, though. Texas has a great run defense with tremendous DTs but is a bit vulnerable against the pass, which doesn't have a great comparison among recent Michigan opponents. On offense they have devastating weapons and a pretty good QB who occasionally makes a bad mistake, which could be compared to maybe the 2019 PSU team with Dotson/Hamler, Geisicki at TE, Miles Sanders at RB, and young Sean Clifford at QB? Ewers is obviously better but that's the sort of mold I'd identify. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

After doing all the FFFF study on Ohio State, which Buckeyes' performance in The Game surprised you as better than you expected, and where might you think certain Buckeyes under-performed your expectations? - BuckeyeChuck

I always enjoy the reflective questions about FFFF and this one in particular since I spent so much time on Ohio State. In terms of better than expected, Julian Fleming stands out on offense, which I guess is a pyrrhic victory for Buckeye fans given his current portal status. I've never thought much of Fleming but he had a couple really nice catches in The Game, one of which being the 3rd down when OSU was deep in their own territory to keep the chains moving, which was a huge snag. On defense the top over-achiever was Michael Hall, a player I praised a decent bit coming in but he still managed to exceed those expectations. Hall was a game-wrecker and put together the best game against an elite opponent I've ever seen him play. Gotta give him props for that. 

In the underachiever category, Emeka Egbuka may be near the top of the list even though I've never been as high on him as some. He did have a touchdown (which was mostly an RPS+) but three catches for 25 yards with a bad 3rd down drop was a clunker performance for someone starred on our diagram. On defense I don't have a great answer because I think the defense played well and those who didn't (the LBs) were correctly identified as problems pre-game. Denzel Burke did allow four receptions on six targets for 32 yards (credit PFF for that line) so maybe I'll nominate him for the title. 

 

With NIL, roster limits are essentially non-existent. So why doesn’t Michigan sign 30+ players each year? Especially flyers on Australian Punters, German Linemen, African Edges, Canadian DBs, etc.

— JD (@JonDrouin) December 9, 2023

I mean, they are already getting close to that! Michigan signed 25 players in the 2023 class and currently have 26 in the 2024 class, with the hope to sign a couple more before signing day. Toss in the portal, which is adding 5-10 kids, and Michigan is already bringing in 30+ players every year. Attrition hasn't been terribly high and this past season, by my count, they played with ~96 players who you would define as "scholarship" under the old system. The collapse of roster limits has allowed them to take fliers on stab-in-the-dark guys, including French EDGE Aymeric Koumba in the 2023 class and German DL/OL Manuel Beigel in the 2024 class. I don't think you ever want to take guys just for the sake of taking a guy, or to make your team too big and out-of-control, but they have been using NIL to build giant rosters and take players they genuinely like, as your comment hopes for. 

 

How much is Nick Saban paid for the AFLAC commercials? (-Tokyo Blue)

I'm going to guess it's about the same amount as Shohei Ohtani will make for every at bat with the Dodgers. 

 

Among the many potential NFL departures, pick 3 to stay and everyone else leaves. No JJ.

— Takao Yamada (@TakaoYamadaDeY) December 9, 2023

This is a good question. I'm going to make it more interesting by excluding people who are obviously going to the NFL but technically have eligibility, so no Blake Corum, Trevor Keegan, Kris Jenkins, or Zak Zinter. With that out of the way, I think Rod Moore/Makari Paige is one answer. If you believe Moore is for sure going to the NFL (as he discussed pre-season, then put him in the Corum group and my answer is Paige. If you say Moore may come back because of his injuries/choppy season, then I'd say Moore. Either way, I think having one of the two veteran safeties back would be optimal rather than having to phase in two new starters at a position where newbie starters can have their wobbles. 

For my other two answers, my mind went to Junior Colson for a similar reason (don't want to lose both LBs), although if Michigan lands Jaishawn Barham out of the portal, I would feel fine with Barham and Ernest Hausmann as my two starters. In which case I'd probably go with the OL names since that will be a position of importance when it comes to supporting a (possibly new) QB. I'd probably prefer Drake Nugent and Trente Jones to keep? (I am a Trente fan like Brian) Although Myles Hinton you could sub in for my OT answer. That would leave you with Crippen or Anderson + Nugent and El-Hadi on the IOL, Trente or Hinton at tackle, and you're left with one more tackle spot to fill either through the portal or someone like Jeffrey Persi. That's a decent enough blend of experience and talent to be acceptable for the 2024 offense I think. 

 

Also, your Mt Rushmore for the last 3 years

— 🌹Vasav🌹 (@VasavSwami) December 9, 2023

My quick seven contenders are JJ, Corum, Zinter, Aidan Hutchinson, Sainristil, Barrett, and Rod Moore. I decided to answer the question from the perspective of the best Mt. Rushmore to encapsulate what the last three seasons have been about rather than purely the BEST players, a sort of sampling platter of the characters/narratives/talent. With that in mind my picks are: 

• Corum: his singular brilliance carried the 2022 team through 11 weeks, one of the very best RBs to ever play at Michigan and his decision to return for 2023 symbolizes the team culture 
• Zinter: have to pick an OL to sum up what these teams were built around on offense and Zinter was a three years starter and probably the best of the positional group
• Hutchinson: only played one year but the player mostly centrally responsible for transforming the team's culture and his performance in the 2021 OSU game will live forever 
• Sainristli: author of the greatest positional switch in Michigan history, emotional leader, do-it-all defensive savant, and had one of the best/most important defensive plays in memory in 2022 

I hate leaving JJ out, because he was so important to the 2022/2023 teams, not to mention Barrett as a sixth year elder statesman and great story + Rod Moore, The Buckeye Killer, but these are the four I went with. So many great players, so many great heroes for a fanbase. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

3 straight years in the playoffs.  Recruiting is mediocre based on site rankings - obviously results exceed the raw rankings. Is UM at a disadvantage in the NIL era, just identifying the right talent for the UM system, or focused on recruits + transfers to build a roster closer to the NFL? (-YoOoBoMoLloRoHo)

I've gotten versions of this question in every mailbag dating back 18 months so let's give an update to it now. The first question here "is UM at a disadvantage in the NIL era?" would definitely be answered with a yes if we're talking about a disadvantage when it comes to landing 5* players. Shouldn't be much of a surprise at this point and it's for all the discussed reasons- Michigan is not a "pay-for-play" school and has maintained publicly that they don't want to be one. The other competitors are. When you're a 5*, you get offers from a number of great programs and when one program sweetens the deal with better financial incentives and the other program doesn't, it's not hard to see which you'd pick. The financial package that LSU is believed to offer Bryce Underwood at this point in time is substantially higher than what Michigan is offering. Whether it will be decisive in that recruitment is unknown but yes, NIL puts Michigan at a disadvantage because they are not spending like you'd expect a wildly successful program to be. 

How much does it really matter? I don't know exactly. You obviously need to have top-end talent to be able to win big in college football, which generally means high 4* and 5* sorts of guys. However, Michigan has been able to change the dynamic by churning out top-end talent from recruits who were not quite at that level, identifying undervalued players and developing talent better than anyone else (relative to recruiting talent). Getting the production they've gotten out of such players as Kenneth Grant, Mason Graham, Mike Barrett, Mike Sainristil, Kris Jenkins, and Rod Moore is remarkable. None of those players were blue chippers, yet all of them are All-B1G studs and the ones with NFL size will be sought after by the pros. Michigan has been able to do more with less (from a star-gazing standpoint) and that's what has put them ahead of Ohio State over the past three seasons. 

The mold we've seen Michigan land on in the last year or so is 1.) sign big (by number of recruits) recruiting classes and use a strong internal culture to keep players in the program, 2.) develop those players extremely well, 3.) fill in any recruiting gaps by plugging in 5-7 high impact transfers each offseason. It's worked to this point but is it sustainable? So long as this staff is together, I think within reason yes. But you can't guarantee how many years you'll have this collection of positional coaches/coordinators and how long Jim Harbaugh will be around at the top. Recruiting higher caliber players would help mitigate the need to rely on mining diamonds in the rough, but I'm also not advocating going after recruits who will sign with the highest bidder. I think that's a bad way to build a team and goes against the culture that Michigan has been able to build that's so valuable. 

I think it can work sustainably, you just need to continue to have solutions at QB, which is certainly an open question, and secondly, keep an elite staff of football coaches together, also an open question. Right now the way things are running, it works, but it wouldn't hurt to up the recruiting baseline a bit to increase the level of athletic talent you're working with in your huge recruiting classes. Michigan might have gotten a few things right by not diving into "pay-for-play" head first and attempting to buy a program a la Texas A&M, but raising the NIL baseline to get recruiting back into the top 10 of star-gazer rankings wouldn't hurt and would reduce the need to find the next 3* to superstar every cycle. 

 

[PuckPreps]

How good is the incoming hockey recruiting class? Which players could be difference makers next year? Will we have to go to the portal again for a goalie? (-The team the t...)

Got one hockey question so of course I'm going to take it. The 2024 class looks pretty good, significantly better than the 2023 class, though it will still probably be a bit below the behemoth 2025 is looking like. Plenty of good players to restock the cupboard and we can go through it position by position. At forward they have commitments from Mikey Burchill, Kristian Epperson, Christian Humphreys, and Matvei Gridin, as well as possibly Aidan Park and Michael Hage, where there is ambiguity about whether they will come in for 2024 or stay back another year and matriculate in 2025: 

• Burchill = player who was deferred for 2023 (not sure if that was his choice or Michigan's) and so far it's looking like a smart call, as Burchill has upped his PPG clip in the USHL from 0.62 to 0.74. Probably a third line sort of player to start who is a four-year contributor and grows with age. 
• Epperson = USNTDP forward, so he'll be drafted, but not one of their top tier scorers nor a projected high pick yet. 14 points in 23 games this season, probably starts in the middle six somewhere 
• Humphreys = also a USNTDP forward, from the Pittsburgh area, currently third on the development team in points behind mega prospects James Hagens and Cole Eiserman. Projected as a first round pick and should slide into the top six comfortably. Michigan flipped him from MSU in a big recruiting win 
• Gridin = the most recent commit and Michigan's first Russian since I've been covering the team. Plays for Muskegon in the USHL and is one of the stories of the USHL season, flying up the draft board as he currently is top five in scoring in that league at 17 and if he keeps scoring at that pace, we will be talking about first round status. For now he's more 2nd round range 
• Park = Prep school kid at prestigious Shattuck-St. Mary's. Right now seen as a 2nd round pick roughly, only question is whether he goes and plays a year of USHL before coming to Michigan 
• Hage = Michigan's yearly Chicago Steel product from the Toronto area, Hage is scoring a point-per-game in the USHL as the Steel's leading scorer and moving up draft boards, generally seen as a late first rounder. Like Park, some question about whether he plays another year in the USHL or comes to Michigan right away 

Pretty good group! If all six come right away, that's four guys projected in the top two rounds of the draft and two more who are more mid-round/UDFA guys, but ones that still have reason to be excited about. No mega stars, but a lot more offensive oomph than was in this most recent recruiting class and they should be positioned alright to stomach potential offseason losses depending on who from the Nazar/Duke/McGroarty/Brindley group depart. 

Given the current state of the team the defense probably merits more focus and there they have two or three commitments. Dakoda Rheaume-Mullen and Hunter Hady are the two expected to join the roster and then there's some uncertainty about Jack Willson. DRM is a product of the USNTDP and son of Manon Rhéaume, pioneering women's hockey player, while Hady is another Chicago Steel product. Neither are super hyped on draft boards and both lack offensive output at the moment but presumably that will make them better defensively and more of what Michigan needs. Willson was a player like Burchill who opted not to join Michigan for this season, a local kid (Northville) currently in the USHL, listed at 5'8", 174 on EliteProspects. Probably not the sort of player who's instant impact if he joins for 2024-25. 

Overall, it's a pretty talented class, but goalie is a question mark. Considering that Jake Barczewski is out of eligibility and Noah West has not proven to be a suitable starter, they will need solutions for next season. They have picked up a very recent commitment from Cameron Korpi out of Tri-City in the USHL. A South Lyon product, he was a WMU commit until Michigan flipped him, which gives them a goalie in the 2024 class for sure. Korpi has a .901 in the USHL after a .911 last season, not dazzling but workable. They also hold a commitment from Stephen Peck, but he may be a 2025 rather than a 2024. Peck has mostly been in the NAHL (.899 SV%) but has played one game for Muskegon in the USHL. In general, that's a profile I'd be more comfortable deferring for a bit. Assuming they bring in Korpi and push Peck to 2025, they'd need to dip into the portal anyway, so I expect that will be a priority once the season ends. 

 

Receivers: why has no one emerged behind Roman and CJ? We've had basically the same 3 receivers from 21-23, now without Bell, where is the development/recruiting? Why was the 23 receiver class all so short? Are we screwed if we don't get McCulley? Where is Clemmons?

— pibb supremacist (@Leftistlieuten) December 9, 2023

The easiest answer for why no one has emerged behind Roman and CJ is a) Roman and CJ are good and b) that Michigan has two very good TEs and doesn't throw enough to need more than four solid receiving options. CJ and Roman Wilson aren't Marvin Harrison Jr. but they're two very solid players and as veterans, they aren't going to be supplanted unless the players behind them are ELITE, which is an unreasonable expectation for the next group to have. This isn't to say the next group of receivers are destined to be incredible, but just that we haven't seen them much yet and I don't think that's their fault. 

So I think we should stop a bit short of condemning "development/recruiting" wholesale. When you look at the 2021-23 recruiting classes, in 2021 they took Cristian Dixon (a player we were never excited about) and Andrel Anthony (talented, but transferred). In 2022 they took Amorion Walker, Tyler Morris, and Darrius Clemons. They moved Walker to defense for need reasons, Morris has shown some flashes, and Clemons, yeah, a bit of a mystery. There are definitely reasons to wonder about him. Will Clemons ever be anything? I don't know. And then you have the 2023 class, who are freshmen and thus fall under the old phrase "true freshmen receivers always suck". That we've seen some of Fred Moore and Semaj Morgan at their age is a good sign for both but as the question points out, they are indeed not big. Why? I don't know, probably just who they could recruit, more than likely. 

The reality here is that Michigan is going to have a hard time recruiting the WR position at a high-end level so long as they remain as hesitant to pass a lot as they have been under Jim Harbaugh and when they develop TEs as well as they do and target them a lot. Michigan this season took satisfaction from having attempted 8 passes against Penn State and have played most of this year in 12 personnel. That's going to be a difficult market to recruit WRs in, plain and simple. I don't think Michigan is "screwed" if they don't get McCulley though it would be a perfect fit and would make life much easier. A transfer WR is a good way to complement the '23 receivers and hopefully Clemmons comes on line (assuming Wilson leaves). 

 

Ohtani just got $700 million. Can I have some? (-Mr. Grainger)

Well, technically it's not $700 M because of the deferrals with no interest and subsequent inflation over a 20 year period. Which I suppose means Shohei is too poor to give you any. 

 

[Jadyn Davis instagram]

One of the blog's axioms of recruiting is that risers don't rise enough and fallers don't fall enough. With that as given, how concerning is Jadyn Davis's decline in the recruiting rankings? (-Kilometers)

I think this will be covered some on our signing day podcast but it is a worthwhile question to consider. Davis now sits just inside the top 100 of the On3 industry ranking, a fall from being top 25-50. On3 has long been the most negative on him, while Rivals the most positive. No one has him as a 5* though, so the "faller" label certainly applies here. It's also been the most talked about point of conversation with Davis' profile for some time so let's examine it. 

Davis' fall in the rankings has mostly been about his ceiling, not his floor. His strengths are still his strengths (game-management, football IQ, decision-making, accuracy) but his arm strength is not elite, nor is his athleticism and he's a bit short for the position. His performances in the Elite 11 types of camps have been underwhelming compared to other prospects in everything except the game-like drills, where his cerebral traits come out. It's also worth noting that height is a factor in the Davis evaluation, because when he ranked as the top QB in the 2024 class he was a freshman and projected to grow more than he did. So some of it was merely uncontrollable on his end. 

I think the best way to sum up the Davis situation is that expectations should perhaps be a bit lower for him than the original label "5* QB" suggested because he's not currently a 5*. But I don't think we should abandon hope just because we usually pan fallers as not falling far enough because there are a lot of traits to like with Davis. Also, QB is one of the toughest positions for recruiting rankings to evaluate. As for the point about abandoning hope, even those evaluators who have been pretty negative on Davis admit that his strengths make him a perfect fit for Michigan's offense, so if any team can maximize Davis' profile, it should be the Wolverines.

As for the point on QB projections, the top 10 QBs in any given recruiting class is a hodge-podge of guys who were great, some who were okay, and some who were awful. If Davis had been a riser instead, we'd have more reason to be pumped, but I'd still be weary because this positional group is pretty unreliable. You never really know what you have in a QB recruit until the player gets to school and for now, Davis is still a talented prospect with a lot of things to like about him. He's just not a "can't miss" prospect. 

 

[Bryan Fuller]

Is there any update on the players who were nicked up at the end of the season? Will everyone be at / near 100%? (-AmazinBlu)

I'm not an insider but what I have read from the people who are is there aren't any major concerns. Will Johnson told Josh Henschke that he's feeling good and otherwise there haven't been too many injuries (Zak Zinter excepted). The JJ stuff has all been under wraps but I never heard it was anything terribly serious. Similar situation for Drake Nugent I assume... never heard anything on him but he returned to the Iowa game, so I can't imagine it's serious. Jimmy Rolder was listed as out on the injury report for Iowa and I haven't heard anything about him but I don't think that is a consequential question mark. I assume close to full health for the Rose Bowl and haven't heard anything to change that. 

 

Why does everyone keep saying Bama was hot at the end of the year when they squeaked by Auburn with a 4 and 31 miracle in their penultimate game? (-BlueHighlander)

People have a very short memory and are lazy/don't do their homework, so they mostly just went off of the Georgia game. That's my answer. I think more broadly it's a way of signaling "this isn't the same Bama team that was tied at halftime with USF", which is correct, but that game was also a huge outlier, even at the time. The broader picture, of 'Bama being in a lot of close games, has been true the whole way. They've been in close games with very good teams like Georgia and less good teams like Arkansas and Auburn. They have an extremely high ceiling and a surprisingly low floor for a playoff team, one of the most volatile teams to make the CFP. 

 

[Bryan Fuller]

What are the most likely outcomes for Sherrone Moore's immediate or near future job? (-Hensons Mobile)

I don't know Sherrone Moore personally so I'm not sure what he's thinking, but the general complexion of recent articles among those more plugged-in than I am is that Moore has become a sort of coach-in-waiting. Obviously having to be interim for four games this season and winning two top 10 games, including the most-hyped Ohio State game of the past 15 years, goes a long way towards establishing that profile. He's young enough to be a long term solution and is one of the best recruiters on the staff. So long as he is not implicated in any NCAA shenanigans, Moore is the obvious answer on staff of who would take over in the event that Jim Harbaugh is no longer the coach. 

Has Michigan made it clear to Sherrone Moore that he's the next HC whenever Harbaugh is not around? I'm less clear about that (one of the articles I linked suggested that recruits have been told that Moore is the designated successor), but if they do, I see no reason why he would depart the staff for another job. Moore is 22 years younger than Harbaugh, whether he gets a crack at it next year or in longer out than that, he won't have to wait forever. So, as long as he knows he's on deck, I don't foresee him jumping ship, especially when he's stuck with JH through thick-and-thin dating back a ways. After all, Sherrone is the only coach left on staff besides Jay Harbaugh from the 2018 team. But if he doesn't know that he is in the succession plan or in fact is not next man up? Then he could probably bail for a job at at any time because he will be sought after by many a teams in every offseason from here on out.