A College World Series Primer
Wait, let me get him out of his case.
ARISE!
I already rose. What's this nonsense now?
The College World Series! Michigan is in it for the first time in 35 years.
Surely you mean the Men's College World Series.
Okay yes fine that is its name, technically. If this space talked about stick and ball sports much it would refer to both the baseball and softball championships as just the CWS and rely on the reader to figure it out. Your author has the exact same take on the Women's World Cup, which should just be the 2019 World Cup and you'll figure it out.
Anyway, you wave the stick at the ball and things happen?
Baseball is a game with a long history and byzantine rules. Here's the wikipedia article.
[After THE JUMP: the opponents, the format, the sauce]
So how many teams are left?
Eight.
And how do you get down to one?
Exactly how they got down to eight: double-elimination regionals followed by a best two-out-of-three championship series. Michigan has already battered the #1 overall seed out of the tournament and gets the #8 overall in its opening game. Arkansas is the #5 overall seed. FSU was a 3 in the Georgia regional. Here's the bracket.
Michigan plays Saturday at 2 EST.
So this is a total fluke, right, and we're going to get crushed?
No? I mean, maybe, baseball is incredibly random on a game-to-game basis. College baseball, which has a lot more fielding/running/pitching implosions than the pro game, is even more random. Arkansas's super regional matchup against Ole Miss was an 11-2 win, a 13-5 loss, and a 14-1 win. As Billy Beane said,
"My shit doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is fucking luck." — Billy Beane, Oakland A's general manager
— Jacob Rickrode (@ClutchFantasy) January 18, 2019
The same applies for NFL playoffs
But Michigan isn't a team that lucked into a bid. Michigan's junior frontline starters just went 74th and 77th in the MLB draft. Sophomore Jeff Criswell got pushed into the starting rotation last year when sophomore Ben Dragani went out for the year after Tommy John surgery; this year Criswell was All Big Ten and made D1 Baseball's top 150 for the 2020 draft. He would have been drafted fairly early out of high school if not for his Michigan commitment* and seems to have boosted his stock since.
Meanwhile Michigan's entire outfield is also of interest to major league scouts. When Fangraphs ran down the prospects in the Corvaillis regional, Michigan had six of the top 10.
While the other three teams in the regional have a bunch of talent themselves, on paper Michigan can go toe to toe with anyone. Ask UCLA.
*[For a look at what goes into a draft-day decision for a guy in about the same range as Criswell, this Anthony Fenech article on HS senior and Michigan commit Colin Czajkowski is very good.]
But, uh…
Okay yes Michigan got swept in a three-game series in Lubbock in late March, losing 11-2, 10-3, and 8-5.
Anything I should know about this format?
It's a lot less of a burden to end up in the losers' bracket in the CWS because there are days off.
You blast through the regionals in 3 or 4 days and if you end up coming through the losers' bracket your best-case scenario is playing 5 games in 4 days against a team that got to skip one of those games. Michigan suffered an incredible collapse against Creighton in their regional that didn't matter because the Bluejays were down to scraps at pitcher the next day. Michigan put up a USWNT-worthy 17 runs.
The days off in the CWS mean that even if you get dumped into the losers' bracket immediately your #1 and #2 starters will have 6 and (if necessary) 5 days of rest by the time it's down to two, assuming that you use your #3 starter in Game 9. Michigan likely would since they've got three dudes.
Does this mean the idea of leaving the NCAA and playing with wood bats in the summer is a dumb one?
Hell no. 8% of CWS berths go to Northern teams. Michigan spent the first month of the season on the road. It is 72 degrees, crisp, and sunny today and there is no baseball that will ever be played in Ann Arbor on June 12th. Win the damn thing and then bail. That's the ticket.
This isn't crazy. Minnesota's coach advocated for secession just last year. Let's get it done.
Sesesh'
Too bad Gonzaga couldn't have taken Arkansas' place in the CWS.
That would have recreated the West Regional Sweet 16 bracket from the NCAA Tourney.
I'm really happy there's going to be an MGOmaha preview. I'm really happy the MGoCommunity is on the baseball bandwagon. I'm really happy we're in Omaha and still talking secession. Let's get it done.
Also - the NFL playoffs are not luck. The MLB postseason most definitely is. But if any sport needs random "play for stuff" trophies that soccer does, it's Major League Baseball. These are my takes.
I understand your comment about NFL playoffs not being luck - but without three very lucky plays, the NE dynasty looks very different and without #1 possibly never happens:
1. Brady / Woodson "tuck rule" play
2. Pete Carrol brain fart on the 1 yard line
3. Falcons decide to pass and get holding call to take them out of FG range
And to the flip side, without 3 unlikely plays - Pats could be looking at a mind-numbing 9 Super Bowls championships in 18 years:
1. Eli to David Tyree insanity play
2. Eli to Manningham sideline catch in double coverage
3. Brady drops the ball on trick play against the Eagles for a walk in TD
Steelers fan?
1. The rule was called correctly. I guess it's "luck" that the officials get one right.
2. The Pats had prepared for this play in the week before the game. Malcom Butler was sent into the game as a third CB in anticipation of Carrol trying one pass with one TO left on 2nd down and under a min left. In other words, a pass isn't the craziest call in that spot.
3. Bad playcall in hindsight, I guess, but the Falcons (like the Seahawks) weren't going to change what they did all season which was be aggressive regardless of down/distance. If you want to look for a lucky play, go with the ungodly Edelman catch.
I am a life long and dedicated Lions fan (which I will never walk away from - even if it is tempting right now)... so I can assure you that a little known and questionable NFL rule going in your favor and having the refs making the correct call is very much lucky.
As far as the Seahawks, not giving Beast Mode (the league's premier power RB in 2014) a crack at the game winning TD is asinine no matter what anyone says. If he gets stuffed a couple of times and you want to try a pass, then fine, but give the man a shot.
And if you are going to throw with Russell Wilson as the QB, why not roll him out and sneak a TE into the corner of the end zone? Gives him the option to throw for the TD, run for it or launch the ball into the crowd. I have seen the Seahawks run that play half a dozen times.
Anyway, who cares. I think you understood my point.
I don't get your point. Like, at all. You can call it luck because you didn't like the outcome. But I'm wondering at what point is it luck and when is it better strategery, preparation and play calling?
--The Pats had already stopped Lynch 2x on 3rd and short earlier in the game.
--Lynch had scored only one (1) time on five (5) attempts from the one yard-line over the course of the season.
--From 2010 to 2014, Lynch ranked 30 out of 39 RB's scoring from the one yard-line.
--Pete Carroll had a complete shitshow going on the sideline before the play. He expected Belichick to call a timeout. In the mic'd up NFL Films episode following the game, the Pats AC's are repeatedly asking Belichick if he wants to call a timeout. He doesn't. Watching the chaos across the field, Belichick says "he didn't want to take them off the hook." Seeing the Seattle personnel grouping, the mic'd up shows the Pats sending in Butler as a 3rd CB ("Malcom, Go!").
--With only one (1) timeout and 26 seconds left, another "Beastmode" stuff causes Carrol to use his last timeout on third down. Do you try another run with under 20 seconds left? That would essentially be the last play if he gets stuffed again - the clock would expire before 4th down.
--Carrol had been suffering nightmares from the 2006 Rose Bowl when the Trojans got stuffed on 4th and goal from the Longhorns 1 yard-line. This memory reportedly played into his go-ahead to Seahawks OC Darrell Bevel.
all good points I am sure and you are right that Carroll was a genius for throwing from the 1 yard line but you took an argument about an example way too far. And I really don’t care if the Pats won or not. I am a Tom Brady fan if nothing else.
The PI flag getting picked in the Lions v Cowboys game and the Eddie Murray missed FG against the 49ers bother me more than the results of all the Super Bowls put together.
My point was that NFL playoff games can turn on a lucky or perhaps better termed as an unlikely play or plays. I will leave it at that.
just piping in on the 'tuck rule' play. everybody forgets that woodson hit brady on the head before he whacked the ball - should've been a 15 yd penalty and an automatic first down against the raiders which would've been a lot nicer for the pats than simply having an incomplete pass.
Aside from all the winning over the years simply speaking for itself, not calling a TO when everyone in the world was expecting it, was a stroke of genius. The man operates at a different level than any other coach in NFL history. It’s not an argument at this point.
The Pats run defense was exhausted. They were done. Lynch had just run over them for 5 yards to get to the one. Just run the same damn thing. It was an all-time miserable play call and one of the unlikeliest endings imaginable. Butler's play was amazing, but yes, that was an utterly lucky ending to have Carroll not run Lynch again. None of those stats you cited take into account the situation as it was.
No. Mina Kimes is on the same page as I am but let me elaborate so you have a better understanding on why the play call was perfectly fine.
It wasn't the play call that was the problem, it was that the Seahawks didn't call time out earlier and let the clock run because they were afraid of Brady getting the ball back with too much time. Remember, Belichick decided not to call a TO for reasons I can't recall right now.
So let's fast forward. They called that pass play because they couldn't afford having Russell stopped in bounds. It was a quick slant and when have you ever seen that play defended? Beast Mode was like 0-5 in short yardage goal line runs during the season, if I recall, and they had just gotten stopped.
Carroll reasonably wanted to get in 4 plays and not 3 plays. If the pass wasn't going to work then he would call 2 straight runs. I believe the Hawks had 1 more TO left. What is unreasonable about that logic? Get 4 plays to score and not 3. Throw a quick slant was a perfectly fine call.
Here is the bottom line. Let's say the Hawks do your 3 play approach because they had Beast Mode and they get stopped then you would be the same guy criticizing them for running 3 straight times with a guy who hadn't succeeded the entire season in that same situation.
Here is a link. Tell me, anything wrong with these play calls?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CT_JKBv9PrY
Patriots fan?
tuck rule was bullshit. It’s no longer a rule because of it. Surely even the biggest idiot in the world can see that a stupid useless rule being all that lets you advance is luck.
was a shit call
and competent coaching and the Falcons blow out NE. Shanahan gifted them a championship.
Drink Haterade much?
It was a fumble...
Jeff Criswell, not Ben.
Michigan put up a USWNT-worthy 17 runs.
Wait, shouldn’t it just be the USNT and you figure it out?
P.S. I am all in for secession, the NCAA can kick rocks.
Seconded. Like the men's team is going to put 10+ on anybody in the world stage.
Exactly.
LMAO!!! I pay zero attention to soccer, and I know exactly what you mean!
I would rather the NCAA pound sand or jump in a lake - but that is just me.
I love baseball but have never been able to get into the college game, mostly because Michigan has never had a real shot to be nationally competitive. But, its not a bad product and now that Michigan's in it I have to say I'm pretty excited.
I'm 100% onboard with moving the season to summer. Start it in May and have the national championship over Labor Day weekend as college football is starting. It could give these programs and athletic departments even more money, which is what they truly want anyway. Unless its an Olympic/World Cup year - there is nothing going on sports-wise in the summer besides MLB. Its a great opportunity to attract some interest and eyeballs, as opposed to the cold, crowded spring. I imagine a summer of night games will sell way more tickets than 40 degree weekday afternoons during the school year. Baseball probably still won't be a revenue sport but it will allow the programs to maximize their earning ability to recoup as much as they can. (Additionally - I believe they should keep lacrosse and softball as spring sports but bump them back to allow people to actually enjoy outdoor weather while watching these games).
Also - do people know how gorgeous a summer evening in Ann Arbor or any college town in the midwest/northeast is? I went to a minor league game here in Iowa the other night and it was perfect.
Just split - form a summer league for cold weather teams.
"Summer-time NCAA baseball for northern schools" is one of Brian's pet ideas on this blog - but it's just non-viable IMO.
The top-tier college baseball players are already busy from mid-June to August. They are either (1) getting drafted and then going to summer-time MiLB rookie or Class A leagues, or (2) playing in the wooden-bat summer collegiate leagues.
I think that very little top talent would consider a NCAA school that played baseball from, say, May to August. They couldn't play in the wooden-bat summer leagues. They wouldn't be playing from February to April. Draftable players might just bail and go to rookie ball. They'd be playing less baseball overall, and for what would seem like an "NIT baseball" type championship at the college level.
I get it - northern teams have structural disadvantages as regards baseball. But success is possible. 2 B1G teams to Omaha in 6 years. Kent State and Stony Brook have been there too, while Louisville + Oregon State have become fairly regular visitors to Omaha.
As for Ann Arbor, I've always thought it was a viable market for a Frontier League team. Ray Fisher Stadium is a bit small, would be the smallest park in the Frontier League - but it might be workable.
I've heard this argument before but I don't know if I agree. I'm not sure I buy that the wood bat summer leagues are so important that players would pass up a college summer league to play in them. It would be a trade off of course, but the opportunity to play for a school like Michigan in a wood bat league in the summer months might be enticing. A talented player might make that trade I'm sure there are a lot of recruits out there who are turned off by the idea of of playing games in March in Ann Arbor with aluminum bats. Also, baseball scouting is an incredibly difficult and uncertain task and college baseball already doesn't necessarily get the best players - the Big Ten certainly doesn't get them now. So why not do something different?
The structural disadvantages of cold weather teams are real. If basketball was played outdoors and the B1G sent only 2 teams to the Elite 8 in 6 years, I don't think we'd consider that successful. Stony Brook, Louisville and Oregon State may be located in cold weather areas but they still have mild winters compared to schools in the B1G or New England.
Why would any baseball recruit with professional aspirations choose a B1G summer league that doesn't play for an NCAA title, doesn't compete against the best programs in college and plays its season on empty campuses after the college baseball season has concluded.
If you want to ensure nobody ever watches another Michigan Baseball game again, this is a great idea.
No one on this blog said a peep about Michigan baseball all season until last week. I, like most students at UM, never went to a single baseball game during my 4 years there. I did spend a summer in AA, however and definitely would've gone to multiple games if that was an option. I think a lot of students in town and AA residents would have as well.
It's not the worst idea: and reminder: the B1G hardly ever competes for NCAA titles as it is. I think the whole NCAA should go to this model but I think the B1G should just say screw it and break off.
Very true.
I have gone to games here and there the past few years. It's often cold. I get it. But I think the unintended consequences of disassociating with the rest of the nation are more than people realize.
Also, just playing devil's advocate, if you didn't go to games in the spring, you probably wouldn't have gone during the summer. Maybe. But it's still college baseball and nobody cares.
I mean, admittedly I don't know a ton about the amateur-to-MLB pipeline and how players work their way up. You're not wrong about any of that stuff - you're thinking about the players' best interests while I'm thinking about the fans and how to expand the appeal of the game (which also might be a decent option for players).
This situation reminds me of New York State football. NYS doesn't have a state football championship because the upstate teams start their season earlier because by mid/late November its much too cold compared to the downstate/NYC/LI areas. So, beyond county, the section is the highest championship a team can win.
Maybe the NCAA could split it up baseball like indoor track and outdoor track - have a spring and a summer season. Teams can decide to play in either or both.
Hey but if we keep rooting for global warming this won't be a problem in a few years! They'll be able to play in Michigan year round!
It would have to be an additional, supplemental league that underclassmen and non-drafted upperclassmen play in. Some kind of summer showcase tournament thing with a small number of teams.
That's literally just summer college leagues like the Cape Cod League. They just aren't sponsored by schools.
EDIT: If that was the joke, then whoosh.
1) There is a northern summer college league: Cape Cod League
2) There would be a large problem when every drafted junior and senior leaves midseason to play pro ball. Imagine if Michigan participated in such a league this year. Two of the top three starters, a key bullpen piece, and roughly three or four guys in the starting lineup (including the Big Ten Player of the Year) would be gone mid season.
As much as some want to make it happen, it's just not tenable unless MLB changes it's draft to accommodate. I have an extremely hard time believing that the MLB is going to change it's draft to accommodate Big Ten baseball.
Would Henry, Kaufmann, Brewer, etc. have even BEEN drafted last week without any 2019 production for MLB clubs to consider?
Good point. They almost certainly would have been drafted, but nowhere near as high.
The wood-bat June - August summer leagues are very important to college baseball players with professional aspirations. MLB teams scout them heavily.
The summer leagues really are a compliment (as opposed to Canadian Junior Hockey, which works against NCAA ice hockey) to NCAA baseball:
(1) playing in a summer league doesn't effect a player's college eligibility,
(2) they provide an opportunity for a college baseball player to play competitively for 7 consecutive months (Feb - August).
(3) they end in time for a student-athlete to be back on campus for the start of a fall semester.
(4) the 7 months of competitive play (100+ games) plus the opportunity for a partially-funded College education is an attractive "package" for a High School Senior who is drafted by MLB and considering whether to go the MiLB or NCAA route.
But the above structure only works if college baseball is a Feb - early June (or late June, for the 8 CWS teams) thing. It falls apart if college baseball is April - August.
It is what it is. U-M (and other northern schools) are at a structural disadvantage, but I think the structure as a whole leads to more opportunities for college baseball players: both academically and athletically.
All that said, I'll be rooting for U-M (as I rooted for IU in 2013, or Kent State in 2009)!
The current season begins on Valentines Day. It could be moved to April. As teams finish school they can play every day. More games in a smaller amount of time. Disrupts nothing. Most Big Ten games are played after most schools are done. Only Northwestern and Ohio St are in quarters and have class until June.
The SEC/ACC/etc. will never, ever, ever agree to this. Starting the season in mid-February ensures that any team north of the Mason-Dixon Line is at a massive disadvantage.
I think the part of Brian's plan you're leaving out is that, if they leave the NCAA, UM can pay players.
Softball has fantastic fan support despite playing the exact same season with the same weather. Be good and people show up
I often tell my friends a story about Stanford’s band once performing a show involving secession of the Dakotas. Everybody laughs until they discover that the two states hold more than 50 percent of the country's nuclear arsenal.
anyway, Go Blue.
Can’t we just admit that having 2 Dakotas was an experiment that failed, merge those puppies and send the two extra Senators to California, a state with actual human inhabitants?
No.
But I would be fine with getting rid of North Dakota and merging it with Minnesota. SoDak is too classy to be lumped in with such a horrid place like North Dakotra.
I generally like Stanford's band, but 50 percent sounds way off. I believe there are plenty of sites in other states (_not_ including South Dakota).
Finally, an MGoPost about baseball!
I, for one, am stoked about this team.
Rarely do northern teams advance this far in the "spring" sports
Everyone should be proud of what our boys have done.
Beating Texas Tech will be a tall order, but even if we don't it's a double elimination.
As Brian noted, we might get some rest for our pitches in the loser bracket.
Keeping focus will be the deciding factor.
I confess I don't pay much attention to baseball but I'm always stoked to see an M team do well.
Certainly, we have the potential to win it all; it's anyone's game.
Has anyone heard from GoBlue85?
That Freep story was pretty cool. I feel bad the kid didn't get drafted, but also feel it'll be better in the long run. I also feel for his parents - it hurts to tell your kid 'no', and I can't even imagine how it feels to say no to hundreds of thousands of dollars. Tough choices are not easy to make...
As for UM in the CWS? An awesome experience with nothing to lose. Play without pressure, boys, have fun and let it ride!
Very first exchange with bolded alter-ego made me think of Altered Beast. RISE FROM YOUR GRAVES!
Am I reading this correctly that since Michigan beat No. 1 overall seed UCLA, Michigan inherits their place in the overall bracket? Put another way, it looks like the CWS does not reseed after Super Regionals.
Does anyone have a definitive answer on this? (Magic 8 Ball just told me to "not ask me, I'm an effing ball".)
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