Coach's Clipboard: Closeout Slips
It's no secret Michigan has struggled in clutch time this season, going 1-6 in conference games defined as close by Torvik and #308 in Kenpom's luck metric. Taking that a step further, the Wolverines are 3-9 in contests decided by six points or less for the season.
On the heels of a loss in which it held Wisconsin without a field goal for the final 10:45 of the game, Juwan Howard needed to find a way to come out victorious in a must-win game. Michigan's leading man came in at RPS +14 during the second half after a critical adjustment. Let's dive into it.
The Michigan offense was adequate in the first half, due in large part to Dug McDaniel and Jett Howard hitting contested jumpers early in the game. But it didn't feel sustainable from a process perspective in large part because the ballscreen offense just wasn't working.
The Spartan defense was going with blitz coverage against the various iterations of Wolverine ballscreen actions. A good portion of those possessions looked like this:
Michigan is running Double Drag action and Howard attempts to reject initially, but Akins is in help and Hall jumps in front of Jett. Dickinson and Reed both re-screen, but don't stress the defense with movement that creates confusion, as MSU is able to contain as Cooper re-engages with Reed after the blitz.
Jett Howard dribbles the ball 17(!) times and the possession becomes an isolation for Kobe Bufkin. The fast-rising sophomore is able to score based on sheer talent, but obviously not a recipe for success.
Possessions like these had me tweet-begging in the first half for the natural response to a blitzing defense, slipping. The second half implementation of said slips gave your author immense pleasure.
Early in the second half, Juwan is running Horns Zoom Action (functionally a Dug entry to Hunter at the elbow that flows into a Dug downscreen for Kobe who then gets the handoff from Dickinson) and look at the multiple slips to create wide open looks (I froze the clip at relevant times).
The Wolverines fail to hit the open roll-man on three occasions, because well, college players just aren't all that good. But the Tschetter triple is the direct result of MSU scrambling to find Dickinson on the roll after he slipped against the aggressive blitz. Despite some struggles in terms of player execution on this possession, the process/scheme here is excellent and sustainable.
[Hit THE JUMP for Juwan Howard running circles around Tom Izzo]
A few minutes later Michigan is running Pistol Action with Kohler blitzing. Hunter slips and it's two-against-one on the backend. Tschetter doesn't dive in a timely manner to pay it off, but Hauser fouls so the Wolverines maintain possession.
Again, from a macro perspective, this is great process that creates advantages and places MSU in stressful spots defensively.
Nine minutes remaining with Michigan down by 3. Juwan dials up a nice set with a strongside PnR between Dug/Tarris as Tschetter simultaneously sets a weakside Pin-in screen for Kobe to eliminate Hauser from helping in the paint. Reed slips the ballscreen and is wide open underneath the rim........Dug doesn't see him. Tarris then sets another ballscreen for Bufkin and is open yet again on the roll. Same result.
Coach Howard's job is to create advantages that produce easier scoring opportunities. But the guards simply don't have great spatial awareness and he can't play the game for them.
Under five minutes left with the Wolverines ahead by 2. Michigan running Double Drag and Hunter slips the screen. McDaniel finally finds Dickinson in a timely manner on the roll with Sissoko literally in a spin cycle of confusion as Hunter finds Tarris with a head full of steam. Reed attacks and draws a foul..........but misses both FTs.
Great process that is once again largely wasted.
Tied at 72 with just over two minutes remaining. Juwan Howard once again turns to Double Drag action in closing time. Both Hunter + Tarris slip the screen. Hall sniffs it out but Hauser still blitzes. Once again, Reed is wide open (frozen at relevant time), but Dug doesn't see it.
Reed shows some real growth with the skip pass, but Michigan left a lot of meat on the bone. Tarris Reed in particular, must have been in absolute hell knowing he could've easily had a 20+ point game.
The Wolverine guards are young and still getting acclimated to the speed of the game at the college level. But man, there were a ton of execution errors from the backcourt this game. Only five possessions are clipped above, but there were at least ten possessions where guard execution was problematic.
As someone that watches a lot of NBA basketball, these are routine passes from guards at that level. Now obviously college guards can't be expected to execute at a pro-level, but if the guards (Dug in particular) simply execute properly half the time this is a double-digit lead for Michigan with five minutes remaining rather than a one-possession game.
The larger point is one of scheme. Juwan Howard is exploiting the opposition to create advantageous opportunities for his team. I'm confident the players will cash-in as experience is gained.
February 21st, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
Matt, what's your opinion of Michigan (or any team facing PnR blitzes) just plowing into the blitzer to try to get a few early fouls and also get them to back off a bit? I.e., the ole Jalen Brunson/Trae Young/James Harden head throwback move? I notice M always takes a wide berth around the blitzer, which seems like it just plays perfectly into what the blitz is supposed to do.
Maybe refs wouldn't call anything or would call offensive fouls?
February 21st, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
It's offensive fouls I'm sure they're worried about now that they have no backup guards. The risk of offensive foul is just about the same as the chance of drawing a defensive foul, especially if you're clearly "plowing" into the blitzer for the purpose of trying to get a foul.
The ball handler has to be pretty savvy and know when and how to attack the blitzer to get him while he's moving. My guess is also that Dug doesn't have this savvy yet.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:14 PM ^
Probably not viable in the B10 the way it is in the NBA. Oddly enough, Llewellyn got very comfortable defeating the blitz in his last game by rejecting the screens, which is another solution.
February 21st, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
Great analysis. From someone that doesn't understand X's and O's at high level, this was easy to follow. I think Dug will eventually be able to see those open passing opportunities.
February 21st, 2023 at 2:19 PM ^
I agree. These breakdowns also help me appreciate how well Juwan understands the game. He is superb at scheming guys open, a virtuoso. The problem is his players are college kids, not savvy and experienced pros. I think that's why the 2021 team was so great - he had a lot of experience on the floor - Brooks, Livers, Mike Smith, etc. - but also had a lot of future pros who could execute these high level plays (Livers, Franz, Chaundee Brown). I agree that this team will get better with experience. But in the meantime, they'll have to play hard and scratch and claw for wins.
I loved the analysis but my only bone to pick is that those are not easy passes, as you mentioned. Reed does a great job setting the screen and then sliding into open space. But, those passes are at tough angles through/around big dudes and Dug is only 6'0. A player may not have anyone within 7 feet of him but if you can't get him the ball, he's not truly open. But, when Dug does start hitting those passes, look out!
February 21st, 2023 at 4:28 PM ^
Dug is nowhere near 6'. More like 5'8".
February 21st, 2023 at 9:48 PM ^
And that might be my issue with Juwan. He’s a good coach and solid in scheme, but he might be asking too much. Some of those passes would be downright dangerous so while Hunter/Tarris are technically open, the accuracy has to be NBA-level to hit on those actions consistently.
It’s not just due to Dug’s height, either. The second clip is a great example. It’s frozen at a moment that’s essentially asking for a wrap around bounce pass into a rolling 7-footer.
February 21st, 2023 at 3:33 PM ^
Dug height may always limit his ability to both see these and have the right angle. You can see on most of these there are one or two guys in the path here (two guys in the way on the one at 72 all), so he needs to be able first see the guy as being open and throw it high enough to get there and both are tougher when you're short.
It certainly can still be done though. Simpson developed this ability and he was short.
February 21st, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^
dug has near zero assists on the year when driving the lane. huge problem this year.
February 21st, 2023 at 1:13 PM ^
Fantastic analysis & great write-up, Matt. Kudos and thank you!
February 21st, 2023 at 4:15 PM ^
Appreciate the kind words. Hopefully it aids your enjoyment of the team.
February 21st, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
Thanks. Clear analysis and easy to follow.
February 21st, 2023 at 1:33 PM ^
Glad to have you back as part of the content Matt! This is the type of coverage we've been missing here with regard to basketball. It is easy to shout about Hunter being less efficient in the post or TWill being a bad shooter (both are factual) but it misses the bigger narrative around what is actually happening. The #1 problem with this team is that they're extremely young and competing in a tough conference in an era when everyone got older thanks to the portal and covid.
Those passes you highlighted are almost always being missed by someone who is 19-20 years old and either is a freshman (Dug, Jett) or could be (Kobe). They aren't easy, they are hard to see or anticipate, they're afraid of making a turnover, and they sure as heck weren't running stuff this complex in high school. Same is true for feeding Hunter in the post. Teams are relentlessly doubling and denying him and the guys feeding the ball have little experience doing so.
The best thing that could happen for Michigan basketball is getting Dug and Kobe back for next year.
February 21st, 2023 at 1:33 PM ^
I'm so happy that I saw what much more professional eyes also saw regarding offensive execution. So many missed opportunities, especially when MSU repeatedly blitzed our screen game.
Dug should be getting 5-10 minutes of spot duty this season. He has instead been thrown into the fire and has quite honestly exceeded my muted expectations. And he's learning such valuable lessons on the court this year. His ability to consistently read what's in front of him and execute the proper pass will only improve with more reps. We will probably reap the benefits of this year's experience as early as next season.
I keep reminding myself that Zavier Simpson couldn't consistently stay on the court as a freshman - sophomore Zavier was a revelation. Same with Darius Morris. I'm hoping the same for Dug.
February 22nd, 2023 at 2:39 AM ^
The only two freshman PG's I saw have success since I've followed Michigan were Burke and Derrick Walton. Trey Burke was a singular player, and in Walton's case he was really aided by Stauskas and LeVert, two future first round picks. Walton was nominally the PG but mostly got to play a simplified role largely off ball (the OSU game that year was a notable exception though as Walton took it over down the stretch, foreshadowing what we saw during that amazing run he had as a senior).
Jett and Kobe have helped Dug but right now they are not at the level of LeVert and Stauskas, so Dug is asked to do more than ideally he should be.
February 21st, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
Dug is always going to struggle with these looks a bit because of his size. If Kobe was running these actions, much easier for him to get pass off with his added length and 6" taller to see over and around defenders.
With that said, Dug will get there with experience. Almost all Freshman PGs struggle and tend to make a leap in year 2.
February 21st, 2023 at 2:04 PM ^
Great analysis but I wonder about your first half statement that "and Jett Howard hitting contested jumpers early in the game" when Jett had 5 points at the half.
Two on making the technical fouls. He made one 3 pointer and finished 1 for 7 from 3, IIRC.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:20 PM ^
Michigan scored 7 points in the first two minutes of the game on the following shots - a Dug pull-up, and contested three by Jett and a three by Dug. McDaniel is a 31.8% shooter from distance and not a good shooter by any standard. Over the next 14 minutes of the first half, the Wolverines scored precisely 18 points..........which is abysmal. The offensive wasn't sustainable IMO from a process perspective.
February 21st, 2023 at 2:19 PM ^
This is why I roll my eyes when people say he's not a good coach. I understand if you don't like his roster management and hopefully that improves as the NIL stuff levels out and he learns from past recruiting mistakes. But the guy can coach.
February 21st, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^
just to play devils advocate…So he’s a good coach who can’t manage rotations or manage a roster? he’s had how many years to recruit a pg….collins is one guy…doesn’t seem to be a problem for other “good” coaches. Twill is his starting 4 who couldn’t start for any decent programs…he’s a 8-9 energy, 5 min a game talent kind of player…tschetter? Yeah, not sure what he brings except energy and very poor athleticism….absolutely reed should’ve been playing the 4 much earlier…problem is that they don’t have a backup 4. Let’s not even get into how absolutely putrid the D has been…that’s coaching and effort. So it’s either there isn’t much talent and that’s on Howard or there’s talent that isn’t playing to it’s abilities, which is coaching.
In this day and age a good coach shouldn’t be missing the tourney, especially with how average college bball is overall…
February 21st, 2023 at 4:21 PM ^
If you ignore the injury to the starting PG and the important high profile transfer that didn't take, I guess you can pin TW not improving at all on him.
February 21st, 2023 at 5:20 PM ^
the starting PG that was shooting 30% overall, 18.5% from 3, 33% on FTs and 2.7 asst's?
Jaelin was bad and not sure why people continue to think his injury was some huge thing considering he was truly bad...I didn't even get into how bad he was defensively...
I like Dug and think he's played well considering everything, even better than I expected (not that it means anything)...
February 21st, 2023 at 6:57 PM ^
There was a track record of proven transfer PGs starting poorly and then improving back to their mean by conference games. So I think we were all expecting him to play at his previous level as soon as he adjusted a bit more.
February 21st, 2023 at 7:40 PM ^
He was bad for 7.5 games and 27 threes but if you think that's how he was going to be play all season, I don't know what to tell you.
He wasn't going to keep shooting 18% from three. 27 shots is a very small sample. That was just fluky.
As others have said, he was almost certain to get comfortable and play much better. We saw it with Smith, we saw it with Jones. There was a reason he was starting. I admit he wasn't a great defender but he was going to play a lot better offensively.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:37 PM ^
He has recruited two PG's. Frankie left for weird reasons, and now Dug. Dug could be a nice B10 PG down the line but was forced into the lineup early.
I guess I should have been more specific and said he's a great X's and O's coach.
February 21st, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
He's a surprisingly great offensive coach. I don't think that's ever been questioned, much better than expected given his reputation was as a defensive guy.
What's disappointing is that Michigan has been terrible on defense the past two years, they aren't rebounding which is largely a focus and effort thing that has been wildly variable from game to game, and their older players seem to be getting worse over the course of their careers.
Getting guys to focus and execute X's and O's and play hard is perhaps the most important aspect of coaching and leading athletes beyond just the X's and O's.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:36 PM ^
Oh I've seen plenty of complaints about it on here.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:49 PM ^
Sounds like a similar defensive problem we had with another coach here.
February 21st, 2023 at 6:21 PM ^
Yeah, it's quite remarkable how similar Juwan's last two teams have been to Beilien teams, pre-DC in the sense that they're made up of mostly offense first players, they play a really well designed offense...and they are awful at defense and rebounding.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^
Roster management, recruiting, etc. IS coaching. You can't separate out just x&o on court coaching.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:38 PM ^
Yeah, should have been more specific to the X's and O's. I've seen people criticize that part of his overall coaching prowess and that's the part that makes me roll my eyes.
February 21st, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^
You'd have to ask him to know, but visually it seems like a lot of these missed passes from Dug aren't bc he doesn't see the open man, but bc he is concerned he doesn't have an angle due to his size and it may be deflected or intercepted. It feels like that's a concern for him with defenses hedging/blitzing his ballscreens. Perhaps with experience he'll be able to find those smaller windows and make the passes anyways
February 21st, 2023 at 4:21 PM ^
I do think the lack of size plays into it, but pocket passes can also be made via bounce-passes.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:47 PM ^
Does it seem like Dug is looking at the roller on a couple of these clips?
I know Michigan has a super low Turnover %. Do you think it's possible the guards are playing a little too conservative to avoid turnovers? Any reason to believe that's being coached into them?
February 21st, 2023 at 9:00 PM ^
Zavier Simpson was not very tall, but always found a way to get a nice bounce pass to the bigs on the roll. Would be great to have X come back in the summer & mentor Dug/Kobe on post-entry passes and ways to see around taller players. Like the quick 180-degree pivot step, lunging as far as you can & getting low so you're only looking thru legs - not torso's.
February 21st, 2023 at 3:17 PM ^
This is great content as usual, Matt. Can't wait to see Kobe execute these sets next year....as a member of the Golden State Warriors.
February 21st, 2023 at 3:18 PM ^
This is great stuff.
Much like I never wavered on Coach Harbaugh, I'm still a Coach Howard fan.
This type of analysis shows he's doing what needs to be done...but it's difficult when you are constantly having to reload the team and rely on young guards.
The turnover is also not a Coach Howard "thing." Beilein was faced with the same issues...and it's probably a primary reason why he left the college game.
I'm not sure what the solution is when you have the NBA drafting on potential, rather than college production...and you have players who are understandably taking advantage of this by leaving before they've really contributed anything to their teams.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:17 PM ^
You should do more of these breakdowns Matt; they're very insightful.
I thought Reed could have slipped the screens more aggressively to create more space, but point taken.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:21 PM ^
Great stuff, clear and easy to follow!
February 22nd, 2023 at 8:10 AM ^
There are many things about this team that simply seem to be "out of synch". Being young and small is an excuse-not a reason...for the issues demonstrated here. But it wasn't/isn't just Dug...the lack of vision, understanding and imagination seems to be everywhere. It appears to me as though the importance of the "three" has become so dominating that these kids don't even look for/see the lanes that are open for an easy, more sure two.
February 22nd, 2023 at 8:24 AM ^
I think coach Howard does a great job with the X’s and O’s. My only disappointment is the end of half/game calls and plays following a timeout. It seems like everybody is on a different page in those scenarios.
February 22nd, 2023 at 11:13 AM ^
A 5’9” guard won’t always see the open guy rolling inside and even if he does there’s a decent chance a pass from where Dug sets up will get tipped on the way into the lane.
February 22nd, 2023 at 8:49 PM ^
matt,
just getting to see this. it was excellent, thank you. i am a football x's and o's guy, but not hoops, and your explanations and stop-action videos were really helpful. i realize our season is winding down, but would love it if you could do this a few more times. it's a hoops version of 'UFR' or neck sharpies.
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