Thought Iowa State should have replaced us in the AP Poll as well; I like what Paul Rhoads is doing over there (and I love to watch my fellow Iowans cry and complain and hate on Iowa State, especially in a year where they're better than their beloved Hawks). Drop Florida State further and I can't argue too much (though I do admite, how much further, looking at the teams behind them, ew). I keep seeing Mississippi State winning and always think to myself that they're on the come up before I remember to take an in depth look at what they've done, and man, talk about the notion of playing no one.
Blogpoll Ballot Week 6
A large shakeout, with all skepticism about South Carolina dispelled and Oregon State suffering thanks to impressive wins various other places. Some of their fall is due to week to week jitter that isn't meaningful, but Florida and South Carolina earned it, yo.
FLORIDA STATE. Propped up by the Clemson win.
BIG LSU DROP. Auburn suxxxxxx, and they struggled with Towson. They're two weeks from icing Ralph Bolden at center. BOOM LES'D. The Washington win does have some meaning after they beat Stanford, but they're not looking vintage. They'll rebound or fall further after their matchup with South Carolina; right now their resume is not anything that demands them in the top ten.
CINCINNATI? Um… well. Undefeated? It's that with two decent wins or teams with dodgy bits all over. Oklahoma finally got a win over a real team—a real team with no wins over BCS schools.
Obviously no respect at all for the B1G. BTW - this should reflect the coaches poll and tsio should be ineligible.
Can't wait to see an unranked Michigan team win the B1G !
Do you really think Ohio U would beat Michigan? Do you really? Do you really think Rutgers or NCSU would beat Michigan. Come on, man.
This is where the constant BlogPoll debate between résumé voting and predictive voting comes in. Do you rank teams based on what they've done, or what you think they will (or could) do? Most BlogPoll voters, including Brian, lean toward the former.
Lets say you put Michigan at #20. Shouldn't the #1 and #6 teams beat #20? Shouldn't a team get credit for playing a tough schedule. Michigan outplayed ND and lost.
Fine, compare the resumes. Ohio's best win has come against a before-they-got-it-together Penn St, and in the only similar opponent to Michigan had to come from behind in the 4th Q to beat UMass. Ohio would have (at least) two losses with Michigan's schedule, and Michigan would be undefeated against Ohio's schedule.
This, so much this. Ohio has beaten absolutely nobody, and they almost lost to half of their nobody schedule. They fact that they needed to come back to beat UMass is all you need to know.
NC State - awesome, they caught FSU sleeping, and did enough to win. Fine, but they also have two losses to unranked teams - close to being ranked maybe Tennessee and really not good at all Miami.
Rutgers - Almost the same boat as Ohio. They beat Arkansas when everyone was beating Arkansas (with Tyler Wilson out). Their next best win - UConn? South Florida? No one else anyone cares about.
Those three teams have neither resume nor expectations. At some point, you need to say "Do I really think this team is better than that team?" or "Is playing with #6 ND in South Bend and barely losing really worse than beating UConn?"
I watched the whole NC State - Miami game because my friend is an NCSU alum. NC State is not a top 25 team. The ACC just sucks...except for Duke, They're good now
Based on resume alone, Michigan has been more impressive than all of the teams at 17 or lower except maybe Oklahoma. I don't think you can throw out the Alabama game, but for ranking purposes the most recent performances should carry the most weight.
You're still thinking from a predictive frame of who is better than whom. The question you should be asking is whether Michigan's 2 losses combined with its 3 wins are better than Ohio's 5 wins. Most resume voters, though, particularly in the first half of the season, tend to overweight wins/losses compared to the team to which they won/lost, given the relative lack of data. This may be why Brian is overweighting Ohio's wins vs. Michigan's losses.
You still have to do a little extrapolation though. Let's say we switched schedules - do you think Ohio would have beaten ND or Alabama? No one thinks yes.
Now compare our wins - our best win is a blowout of Purdue, away. Their best is a last minute win, at PSU. Even if you say PSU and Purdue are equal, our win is clearly more impressive. Now compare common opponents - we slaughtered UMass, they needed to come from behind just to beat them by 3. Two additional cupcake wins shouldn't boost them at all. They only beat 1-4 Buffalo by a TD and 2-4 Marshall by 3. That's a top-25 team? Be honest.
"The question you should be asking is whether Michigan's 2 losses combined with its 3 wins are better than Ohio's 5 wins."
Easily and without a doubt.
... Unless you look no deeper than "5-0 v 3-2".
If you look at SOS, shared opponents and margin of victory? It shouldn't even be a question.
Fine, completely ignore any thoughts you have about what Alabama and Notre Dame's defense would do to Ohio, or what Denard would be able to do against New Mexico St, Marshall, Norfolk St and Buffalo. But you have to find something more nuanced than "win is good, loss is bad".
There's no way that you can rationalize NC State being ahead of Michigan. Both teams have two losses. Michigan's losses were both to Top 10 teams (and UM is better than Notre Dame). NC State's two losses have been to unranked teams (and Miami is awful).
But you can't have ND at six. They barely beat a terrible MSU team and potentially below average Purdue team and needed six TOs against Michigan to win by seven. The B1G is terrible and I'm not sure you should be giving that much credit to ND for those wins.
On the other hand, I'm not really sure who else should be in the Top 10. There seems to be an elite three maybe four teams and the rest will be fighting to make up the most mediocre BCS bowl games since last year.
for beating 4 BCS teams and blowing out Navy. Miami was in the top 25 after appearing to bounce back from a blowout loss to KSU. ND just blew them out. Even if it's a close game, they still won and have elite defense IMO.
Yah 7.8 ppg, second in the nation to only Alabama (who has played W. Kentucky, Arkansas and Florida Atlantic). Our offense is rough, no denying that. But our D is legit. 3 straight games without a TD against, 3 TDs all year. Shutting any team out of a TD in any game is hard enough. 3 weeks in a row, including you guys, is pretty darn good.
Yes, you're awesome. Sooooooooooooo awesome.
In what universe is beating a team 20-3 and not letting them run a single play accross the 50 yard line "barely beating" them? That's 3 scores.
Who would you rank ahead of ND? Ohio State who actually barely beat MSU by a single point thanks to a fumble getting blown dead?
Barely beat MSU? Did u watch the game ha? They won by 17 and were in control the entire game.. MSU never even reached the red zone against them and got past the 50 yard line once in the 2nd half. Not sure what game you were watching.
"Oklahoma finally got a win over a real team—a real team with no wins over BCS schools."
Texas Tech did beat Iowa State, no? I could have sworn that was the reason all the cool kids were picking them to beat Oklahoma.
I'll also say, I'm glad I'm not putting up a top 25 to be ripped to shreds by the masses. Have no idea of who is actually good in college football this year.
The computers don't either. This is why a resume based poll makes sense this point in the season. At the end of the year you will have the completed resumes, and then week 6 will be just a memory.
...and I lol'd.
I know the B1G is down, and at the same time we all scheduled tough road games to start the year for some inexplicable reason, but right now most of the B1G has 2 losses. It doesn't seem to matter who you play, or how you play, just as long as you don't lose.
EDIT: Florida State loses to 2 loss ACC pipsqueak NCState and drops 4 spots, LSU loses at top 5 ranked Florida and drops 10 spots. Yeah, okay...
with bad losses and blowouts. Best OCC win by B1G is MSU over Boise State who is clearly in a rebuilding mode. Not real impressive to say the least.
Cincinnati, Louisville and Louisana Tech are undefeated. Granted it wasn't against the best competition but they won with what they're given on the schedule. B1G can't say the same except for OSU who is currently undefeated.
The Big Ten has no big wins is the actual problem. I count 13 OOC losses, but five were to now top 10 teams, Alabama, Oregon St and ND x3. And Illinois, Iowa and Penn St lost to now a combination of Iowa St, LA Tech, Arizona St, and Ohio, all borderline top 25 teams, and it's not like anyone was expecting that former group to carry the banner for the Big Ten to begin with. Indiana has always been bad, leaving us with C Michigan over Iowa, UCLA over Nebraska and Virginia over Penn St. Not good, but Sagarin has the Big Ten as his 4th best conference, and that sounds about right.
My point is we don't need big wins, we just need to not lose. 3 Big East teams, Boise St, and Louisiana Tech are ranked. They don't have quality wins. Our biggest problem is we all risk early losses by opening 1000 miles away against quality opponents. Maybe next year when Cal, UCLA, and Oregon State play in B1G country it'll be different, but these series are all risk, no reward.
Good thing this and all other polls are irrelevant or I might have been miffed at the Michigan snub.
Specifically, they're still way better than Georgia, Oregon State, or Florida State, and I'm not sure about Clemson.
You can justify either Notre Dame at #6 or Michigan Unranked, but after watching that game, it's awfully tough to justify both of those spots at the same time.
Massey (NOT the silly BCS version of the Massey, of course):
- South Carolina
- Kansas State
- Notre Dame
- West Virginia
- Texas A&M
- Texas Tech
- Ohio State
- Iowa State
- Arizona State
- Oregon State
- Mississippi State
- Florida State
- Oklahoma State
Six SEC and six Big 12 teams in the top 14. I have never seen conference domination like that in a computer poll.
Sagarin has bit more love for the PAC than this, but his synthesis rating has five SEC teams in the top 7 and his predictor has four in the top 6 (predictor's not as fond of LSU).
Sagarin also thinks that if North Dakota State was in the Leaders division they'd be favored to win it. They're a point better than Wisconsin and six points better than Purdue.
Maybe I haven't taken enough time to read previous BlogPoll comments, but this one seems to have really kicked the hornets nest.
Y U angar people!