Being Matt Painter
3/1/2020 – Michigan 63, Ohio State 77 – 18-11, 9-9 Big Ten
Perhaps no one in college basketball is more dedicated to the idea of giant humans playing center than Matt Painter. Before Dutch windmill Matt Haarms there was Isaac Haas. Haas looked like Ivan Drago scaled up by 30%. Both of these guys were paired with shorter, thicker dudes—Trevion Williams and Caleb Swanigan—who charge into the lane like the Kool-Aid Man and vacuum up rebounds so quickly they eject little bits of basketball at an appreciable fraction of c. Purdue strives to have the longest and widest centers in college basketball, at the same time.
Look at this guy.
"oops" – this guy
7'3"? Ranking implies that most of the time he gets the basketball he crushes it in his giant hands and then sheepishly hands it back to the ref? Guaranteed Purdue commit.
A few years ago, Matt Painter was introduced to Moe Wagner and about lost his mind. Wagner's ability to stretch the floor set Purdue's defensive approach on fire. Purdue started switching Haas—290 pound Isaac Haas—onto point guards. Switching everything has become a popular defensive approach these days, but usually the folks executing it are mobile, smallish centers like Xavier Tillman. Haas switched onto a point guard looked like a man dumped into a fish tank with a piranha.
After these games Painter would sit down with the media and carefully explain how Moe Wagner is Purdue kryptonite. Even though they won some of these games, the overall impression the Painter-vs-Moe era left was Painter running his hands through his hair, rocking back and forth, moaning "not again, you said never again."
Been thinking about that lately.
------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan's February run came to a screeching halt over the last two games because Michigan ran into stretch bigs. Wisconsin's Micah Potter and OSU's Kaleb Wesson are shooting 47% and 43% from three, respectively. They combined to go 7/11 against Michigan.
The effects of those threes extended beyond the shots themselves. Against Wisconsin this was a parade to the bucket from Wisconsin's rim-averse guards; against OSU it was Duane Washington shooting over guys who were playing off him because they knew what happened against Wisconsin. Michigan switched a bunch.
It was awkward. Teske got in foul trouble and Michigan put Austin Davis on the court. Davis, who bodied up Williams effectively just a couple of games ago, was ruthlessly exposed by both teams. Wisconsin shot 75% from two when Davis was on the floor.
Michigan's recent defensive run came against teams with no stretch from their fives. They shot down Cassius Winston by ignoring Xavier Tillman at the three point line, which they could do because he's a 27% shooter out there. Nobody else has a guy who shoots an appreciable number of threes.
So here we are, at another nadir during this season of wild reverses. The Torvik slicers have gone home to stew; dreams of Cleveland have been replaced by a hope that Michigan stays off the 8/9 line. A reminder that this is a team of spare parts stepping up, until such time as they're ruthless elites once again.
I don't know what this season is going to end up as; I do know that I don't want to see another five-out offense this year.
[After the JUMP: this graph is good if you want to ski down it but not if you want to win games]
ALL THAT SAID. Hit a shot. Michigan was 60% from two and had decent shot volume (12 TOs, 4 offensive rebounds) and didn't get to a point per possession because people not named Franz Wagner went 4/18 from three. The five game moving average for three point shooting (the dotted line) is ugly:
Michigan hasn't hit more than 30% of their threes in four games. If this team hits a reasonable number of shots from beyond the arc they're going to be a tough out but they've had 11 different outings of 30% or lower this season. We know how Michigan's tourney run ends: with a bunch of bricks. We don't know if Michigan detonates a couple of high seeds before that happens.
This game was a bit different than the usual debacle from behind the line because it felt like a large number of Michigan's shots were forced, or from guys (Teske, Castleton) who are open for a reason. OSU did a good job of contesting beyond the arc.
DEATH TO BACKBOARDS. OSU banked in two threes in short succession during their second half run where their other shots were pull-up twos from some distance that all went down. CJ Walker was 5/6 in the midrange, all on off the dribble pull-ups.
Michigan's defense has a clear deficiency that made it unlikely they'd do well against these two teams but also… cumong man. They just ate consecutive 5/6 performances from three from Trice and Washington (Washington did miss a subsequent shot) on shots that were mostly off the dribble. Washington had a pull-up where he was moving to the side. I mean. FFS.
this is not a closeout [Campredon]
Livers had a bad week. Isaiah Livers has had some defensive issues against smaller guys the past two games. This reel is mostly Johns and Livers getting roasted:
Much has been made of Michigan's difficulties defending the 3-point line the last two games -- rightfully so. The Wolverines have also really struggled to stop one-on-one, straight line drives to the hoop. pic.twitter.com/qjwUc6vYAo
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) March 2, 2020
Livers has a little bit of a limp still after his ankle injury and seems like he's not all the way back.
Livers was was also horrendous on offense, which is less explicable by the ankle because his game was never based on lateral mobility. I've mentioned that Livers has shifted more of his usage to the rim this year, but it's one thing to attack a closeout and entirely another to go into iso heroball. Livers was 0/3 from three and committed a charge; IIRC only the charge was off of offensive action.
I don't understand why Livers picked this game to discover that he's still not able to take guys off the dribble. Let's hope the lesson is learned.
Good mask but can we ramp it up? Eli Brooks looked like a superhero based on a plague doctor, so one point for whoever came up with this look:
The Black Hawk? Dead Eagle? We'll workshop it [Campredon]
Brooks did not shoot well (1/4 from three) so the answer is to add more stuff. I'd suggest some feathers coming out of the top—birds of prey only please—and maybe a neck attachment so Brooks can swivel his head 360 degrees. Try shooting a three after your defender does that. (It will still bank in.)
Obligatory FranzWatch™. Man: 18 points on 12 shot equivalents, two of Michigan's four OREBs, two assists, one TO, a block, two steals, and a couple more deflections. Wagner is now shooting 61% from two in Big Ten play(!), which is fourth in the conference.
Wagner's three point shooting is trending up again, but it'll take another couple dozen attempts before there's even a hint things might be returning to his Euro level.
Kenpom comparables have added Jayson Tatum, so the ten guys listed are:
- 6 top 20 picks (Kevin Knox, Otto Porter, Jayson Tatum, Brandon Ingram, Troy Brown, Kevin Huerter)
- Khris Middleton, NBA All-Star
- A Greek guy who bailed on Texas after a year to and is now a EuroLeague star
- Justice Sueing, who's sitting out after transferring to OSU, aaaand
- Alec Peters, who was a late second round pick after a four year career at Valpo.
Wild stuff.
[Campredon]
FREE YOUR MIND.
SADDI: Austin, I gotta talk to someone about this.
DAVIS: what is it coach
SADDI: Martelli just told me he invented the stretch five.
DAVIS: i mean man's been in the game a long time could be true, could be true
SADDI: Then he told me he invented the chicken sandwich.
DAVIS: gotta say i find that one a bit dubious that's like inventing soup
SADDI: Exactly. Nobody invented soup.
DAVIS: man tells you he invented the chicken sandwich and that's the end of our conversation imo
SADDI: Then I asked him how long it had taken us to pick up those four fouls and he said he invented time. He stared at me. The whole arena stopped. Nobody yelling. Nobody breathing. Basketball hanging in the air. Martelli and I staring at each other, breathing in. Breathing out. In. Out. A frozen moment of terrifying revelation. When time resumed, seconds or hours later, I don't think he realized he had done anything.
DAVIS: get outta here
SADDI: Then he said he invented the sitcom.
Explains Obvious Things Guy. Going from Robbie Hummel to Dan Bonner is a jarring experience. Hummel talks about basketball things. Bonner says things like "free throws are worth one point," "teams should hit shots," and "these people are tall." He would be good doing jai alai.
This Conference Of The Week. No elite teams but also:
Of the bottom 10 teams in this week's AP poll, seven come from the Big Ten conference. Not sure if I've ever seen that before:
— Scott Bell (@sbell021) March 2, 2020
B1G
SEC
B1G
B1G
B1G
AAC
ACC
B1G
B1G
B1Ghttps://t.co/npyYvsakxa
I wonder who's going to get ground up and spat out by this meatgrinder over the next few years. Chris Collins is #1. Archie Miller is #2?
FWIW I went to the game yesterday and had a real good time right up to about the five minute mark in the 2nd half. A few observations:
1. Was not only treated just fine by the OSU faithful they actually went out of their way to be nice. We were with another two couples who were both OSU alums so they took us first to the Thirsty Scholar for a few beers and then over to Tommy's for some pre-game pizza. I was wearing a very bright yellow Michigan Basketball t-shirt and the one guy who said something (I think he said "hey, is that a Michigan shirt? Everybody's entitled to be wrong once in a while") immediately put his arm on my shoulder and said "I was just kidding" when I said "hey i was thinking the same thing about you." Everybody in both places were nice.
2. The walk in was uneventful. A couple of OSU guys asked if I had been to a game here before and one guy teased me and asked did I want to get my picture taken with Brutus Buckeye (they have a statue out there) but did so in a nice way. Other Michigan fans were smiling and everybody was in a good mood.
3. On the way to our seats (nosebleeds on the MIchigan side) we stopped to look at Jessie Owen's shoes and Archie Griffin's two Heismans as well as their trophy for the 1960 National Championship. Not as well done as Crisler IMO but still kinda cool. FYI my buddy had no idea why the only national championship they've ever won in basketball was hidden up on third deck
4. Sight lines up top werent bad and the crowd was generally subdued until their late erruption. I sat in front of another Michigan fan so we traded some in-game high fives. Nobody made any comments to me (yes I was clapping loudly and cheering) and no issues going to the bathroom or getting a beer. Yes, you can get beer there so that's a plus (except it's all shitty beer).
5. The game day atmosphere was WAY more NBA than college IMO. Lots of piped in music, NBA-type contests and even some NBAish entertainment. The band did perform at halftime and we all liked that (yes I like the OSU band even if the music they play sucks). The one thing that stood out to me though was just how much the entire experience felt like I was at a Cavs game, not an OSU game, in every way. Maybe that's better or maybe i'm just too old but I like college better than pros.
6. Leaving stadium and walking to car again uneventful. A couple of randoms asked me if I had a good time and what I thought of the stadium compared to Crisler. Nobody gave me any shit at all and again, people were nice to me.
One last thing though that was kinda funny. Remember our "surrender cobra" guy from the end of the 2015 MSU game? Well every time something went wrong for Michigan they superimposed his image on the scoreboard. And after their late run, with about 2 minutes left, they put a Michigan fan up on the Jumbotron and as he looked up at it they put the caption "this is just like football" over his head.
All in all a good time except for the final score. I will go back next year and try again to bring home a winner.
Nice to hear. Wonder if these are the same people that attend football games, where I've rarely heard good things.
Good question and I dont think they are. FWIW having lived down here since 89 it has been my experience that the most foul, mean-spirited "sCUM-hating", crossed out M assholes couldnt find Columbus on a map, much less attended classes there. These are the losers who compensate for the utter failure in their life as a whole by putting as many OSU tattoos on their body while drunkenly baying "Michigan sucks" at the moon.
My guess is basketball crowd has WAY more alumni than truck drivers unlike the football stadium and hence a very different interaction with Michigan fans. Again, FWIW, most OSU alums i know (and I know a ton of them) dont hate Michigan at all and kinda wish the rivalry was a rivalry once again. In fact, in the 30 plus years I've lived down here I cant think of even one time when I was getting real shit from an OSU fan it turned out to be an actual alumni.
In fact my go-to rebuttal when one of the mouth-breathers gets worked up is to simply look at them and say "I graduated from Michigan in 81, what years were you at OSU?" When the response comes back "I didnt go to school there" (because that is ALWAYS the response) I ask "then why do you fucking care? You didnt go there and it's not your school. Michigan was mine."
I don't use the "you didn't go there, so you're not a real fan" line of reasoning. Sparties spew that crap all the time. Mouth breathers suck, and OSU mouth breathers are the bane of humanity, but they can be fans of whoever they want. Degree not required.
I think your confusing the issue. Down here the really angry, vile OSU fans are ALWAYS non-OSU alumni. I'm not saying all non-OSU alumni are angry (far from it), but what I am saying is the angry ones are always non-alunmi.
I dont care where somebody went to school if they're being nice. But when they're being an asshole that's when I call them out.
Fair point. Carry on.
Lived in Columbus for 5 years and attended several games. It is NOT the same type of crowd at all (sure there are a few cross-overs).
Football crowds are an entirely different fan there (and most other places for that matter). Football crowds are vastly more drunk and angry.
My guess is these people are at the football games but they're the local, sensible alums that only make up 10-20% of the people at the football games. The other 80% are spilttle-flecked non-alums that don't like basketball and were taught songs from birth about not giving a damn about the whole state of Michigan.
It was the most silent arena I have been for a game.
A very restful day.
One of the best things about college basketball is the lack of so many college football fans
It could just be that most of the people who lived when it was an even-up rivalry are now dead.
Alas, true.
But I am still alive.
I think.
I think its clear Livers isn't fully healthy, he's gimpy at least a couple of times a game. He probably won't be healthy again this year.
I think people just need to recognize the severe limitations of this roster. If the threes are dropping they can beat anyone but the reality is that isn't going to happen consistently because they aren't good enough shooters. And they aren't athletic enough to get the rebounds or tough two's against a condensed defense consistently enough to build a functioning offense without hitting threes so they have to keep taking them.
Agree on Livers. Wonder if sitting him for Nebraska would be worth considering to see if that would help him get right.
He probably needs like a month off, not a week to fully heal and properly build strength back up through rehab.
I think they should sit him for both Nebraska and Maryland. Neither are highly leveraged games. They're almost certain to beat Nebraska and lose to Maryland regardless of whether he plays, especially when he's playing like this, so give him almost two weeks off and see how he recovers.
Maybe even consider sitting him in the BTT for almost three full weeks off.
They're shooting the best 2 pt % in the conference. They make tough twos, especially Simpson and Wagner and to a lesser extent Johns, Davis and DeJulius. So that's a bad take. And they simply choose not to go for OREBs because it's not worth it. They just won two games on the road against tourney-ish teams in which they shot horribly from 3. They aren't dependent on threes, per se.
But no one in the country is going to survive a road game against a top 10 team when they shoot poorly and the other team is hitting everything including banks. They lost these last to games because of bad defense against Wisconsin (poor gameplan from the coaches, certainly not an athleticism issue against the least athletic team this side of the Nebraska and NW) and bad luck against OSU.
Sometimes you lose because you had an off night and the other team was on fire.
This roster is an excellent one but Livers isn't fully healthy so having him out there right now is worse than not having him because a healthy Johns is better than a gimpy Livers.
They have a top 20 offense this season, which is better than last years offense and better than the offense that went the title game the season before.
When this team loses it's almost always because of bad or unlucky defense which has been more shaky than the offense this year.
Here's the Michigan fan version of Dan Bonner: Salt-and-pepper hair, late-model SUV, parking spot very near Crisler Arena, very fond of Gratzi, tendency of saying "They just need to play together as a team" after losses.
Man: 18 points on 12 shot equivalents, two of Michigan's four OREBs, two assists, one TO, a block, two steals, and a couple more deflections. Wagner is now shooting 61% from two in Big Ten play(!), which is fourth in the conference.
Bless you, John Beilein. The gift that keeps on giving!
I don't want to see another five-out offense this year.
Go to hell, John Beilein. The gift that keeps on giving!
Of course, Beilein actually left the week Franz was going to visit.
Johns has improved in a lot of areas this year but I’m still disappointed in his defense. His footwork and stance are sloppy and he bites at fakes way too much. If he can improve, he has the athleticism to be Michigan’s stretch 5 panacea, but I think he’s just not good enough on that end right now and probably won’t be until next year at the earliest. Maybe not ever.
Yep, completely agree. He still gets out of position and bites when he shouldn't. He's a suprisingly bad on-ball defender considering his athleticism. Much, much better help defender.
He has ways to go to become a DJ Wilson-like switch everything guy, but that's where he needs to be.
Dan Bonner....by halftime I wanted to stab that guy with a broken broomstick.
Just wait until we get the dynamic duo of Dan Bonner AND Reggie Miller in the NCAA Tourney. They usually work together, along with Kevin Harlan doing play by play, and yes, it is awful. I don't know how CBS can pair such dreadful duo of color commentators with an outstanding PBP guy like Harlan.
Good to see the callout on Bonner and glad it isn't just me. That guy is a waste of a microphone. He's not Captain Obvious. He's Rear Admiral/Five-Star General Obvious. How in the world did he get a gig like this?
I generally agree about Hummel > Bonner, but he did have one great line. After Washington hit like his fourth straight pull-up jumper, Bonner said. "How many times does a guy have to hit you in the head with a shovel before you put on a helmet?"
Not bad.
seems like half the conference (including OSU) is embroiled in ugly lawsuits/legal proceedings, I guess the bucks just wanted Justice Sueing on their side for a change
Mgrowold going to a school or not going to a school does not make your fandom. You are 1 of the reasons Mich has the arrogant label. Get over yourself and how much going to a certain school makes a person more deserving of being called a fan or fanatic. Maybe working in the cleaning dept at Michigan counts for more than having wealthy parents. Geesh, I wish you hadn't posted this as now I see you and buckeyes in a different light.
Billmunson I'm going to type this slowly so you don't get confused
I live here. I don't give a shit where someone went to school if they are being nice. I DO care if someone wants to pick a fight w me over a school they didn't even attend.
Can you follow this? Is it that confusing?
One more time.
1. All the violent angry ones are non-alumni
2. OSU alumnae generally respectful and decent to Michigan fans
Now do you understand why I ask them or does this concept still baffle you?
Bill, you fail at some combination of attention to detail and logic.
MGrowOld didn't say that all non-OSU-alums (Set A) are lousy fans. He said that the lousy fans (a subset of Set A) tend to be non-OSU-alums. Do you see the difference?
When OSU fans are winning all the time over us they can be nice. Wow, you should have seen them back in the late 80s and 90s. They were so pissed losing to Michigan most of the time, they would take it out on any Michigan fan in sight.
I have to disagree with the statement Brian made that the three-pointers felt forced in this game. We took 26 threes and while watching the game I felt like maybe five were forced.
- Livers took 8 and I didn't think any were bad for a shooter like him.
- Brooks took 4 and were wide open, one was a half court shot at the end of the 1st.
- Franz took 8, all good and open.
- Simpson took 1 late when we were desperate. Open, not a great shot, but nothing to lose at that point.
- Johns took 1, it was open, he's ice cold after a hot start.
- Castleton took 1, it was bad because he hesitated.
- DDJ took 1, it was a step back, not a great shot.
- Teske took 2...both were open but a little rushed and he's struggled with the new distance. I think he gets 1 per game as a heat check.
So that's maybe 5 bad ones at most? So you have 20-21 good looks from guys you want shooting.....and we couldn't crack 35%.
GREAT point about Teske and the line being farther back. I haven’t thought of it until now. Of all his 3pt misses it seems as though 90% are short.
I'll keep the Torvik-slicing alive.
Michigan is still number 5 in the country since February 1 (9 games). OSU and Wisconsin are both top 7 so that should make people feel better.
If Livers can get to 100% sky is still the limit for this team. Especially with Franz breaking out like this.
The most annoying part about these past two games is that Franz is looking like a one-and-done and we're still losing. If he's going to get hot and depart earlier than expected, really hope it's part of a great finish like was the case for McGary, Stauskas and Wilson.
The team is very 1990s wild card. The notion back then was, "Live by the three, die by the three," meaning, teams that relied heavily on three-point shooting were infamously streaky. They could beat anybody on one day, lose to anybody the next, and generally weren't regarded as serious playoff threats because they couldn't sustain momentum through a five game series, let alone seven. The idea that a team could build a consistent offense around outside shooters is rather modern, and this team shows that it can still be rather challenging.
Brian keeps attributing the cold spells to luck because the team gets good looks, but knocking down threes in game situations with consistency is really hard. Everyone has good days and bad days but there's a major difference between a shooter who tends to go 6/9 one night and 1/10 the next, vs. a shooter who's good for 2-4 three-pointers a night. Those shots are worth 50% more for a reason.
Franz is not one and done. No way.
I've said this one this board a few times in the past - I literally live right across the street from IMG. I have never seen this 7' 3" dude anywhere. You would think he would be hard to hide and would be somewhere (Walgreens, grocery store, Smoothie King, Gas Station, etc...) for me to bump into.
Because I just posted this, I'm sure I'll see him tomorrow.
Way OT: Goggles, I have family vacationing just south of where you are. Do you have a current read / feel for the spread of the *virus* from the Tampa area?
Seems like our team and our prospects are right in line with the entire college basketball world this year - "On any given night ..."
We can be world-beaters one day (or in December) and Nebraska-esque the next. Once March Madness starts, I'll be shocked if anybody has a bracket W/L % over 60% after the first weekend. Our fate, unfortunately, swings on three guys (usually X, Livers and Franz) having a good game. Getting a plus game from Teske, Eli or anybody else is a crapshoot. But that looks like 95% of the rest of the NCAA. My expectations are for a Sweet Sixteen and anything else is a bonus - which is about what fans at most schools ranked 6 through 25 would say.
I was wondering about Livers. Caveat, I'm not a basketball guy, and I would appreciate those of you who are if you could let me know if this makes sense. The way he's been banged up this year might suggest he's injury prone and could affect his draft position. Would he come back to school next season to prove his durability? Alternately, would he go pro ASAP to ensure he gets paid at least something before the toll on his body affects his play?
Comments