The good news from the weekend is that Michigan Baseball managed to captivate the entire UofM fanbase in a way that they haven't since late June 2019. The bad news is that it ended like the 2016 Ohio State game, with a controversial (non)use of replay sending the Maize & Blue faithful to scour LinkedIn pages to find out the past of the official who hurt us so we could add it to the grand conspiracy folder. It was a busy weekend down in Louisville, KY, and the events of yesterday afternoon ended the 2022 season for Michigan Baseball, which means it's time for the post-season column. I'm going to give you all what you want and will talk plenty about The Review, but we'll also then turn attention to the 2023 season and the future of the program later on: 

Recapping Louisville 

Michigan faced Oregon in the first game of the regional on Friday night and they got off to a good start, taking a 3-0 lead through three innings thanks to a Jimmy Obertop HR. Connor O'Halloran had a decent start, but let the Ducks tie it at 3, before Michigan surged back ahead 6-3 on another Obertop longball. Yet again the Ducks answered, this time off Michigan's Chase Allen in the seventh, but a Matt Frey HR in the eighth put Michigan back up. This time, it was for good. Cam Weston finished it off with a two inning save, and the Wolverines won 8-6. 

On Saturday, Michigan played their first of what would be three games against Louisville. They went to Walker Cleveland as the opener, and he got only four outs and ceded a run. Noah Rennard was admirable in mop-up duty, and he would give way to Jacob Denner. The Wolverine bats faced Cardinal ace Jared Poland and after looking silly through eight batters, they broke through in style, battering Poland for seven runs (six earned) in 4.2 IP. Clark Elliott and Joe Stewart both went deep, and then Joey Velazquez and Riley Bertram RBI singles helped spike the Michigan lead. It was 7-2 after five, and the combination of Denner, Allen, and Weston got the game to the finish line, pitching through jams most of the afternoon, but the Wolverines hung on to win 7-3.  

That put Michigan into the Regional Final on Sunday, where they awaited their opponent. Louisville beat Oregon in a high-scoring affair, and that set up a rematch. With many of their best arms taxed after throwing plenty of pitches the preceding couple of days, the Wolverines had to rely on the reserve options. If you have read any of my preceding baseball columns, you had a pretty good feeling of how this one was gonna go from the jump. Michigan does not have the pitching depth to keep an offense like Louisville's in check without their best guys, and the bats mailed it in as well. The result was NSFW, a 20-1 final score, to push the regional to a winner-take-all Game 7 yesterday. 

[Paul Sherman]

The two teams met again and it got off to a good start, with Michigan notching two in the top of the first off hits from Elliott, Stewart, and Frey. Things went south pretty quickly, though, as O'Halloran took the bump for the bottom of the first. It was a decision that was a bit confusing to me, given that O'Halloran had thrown 93 pitches on Friday and had just two days of rest in between. He didn't look as sharp, allowing the first two baserunners to reach, but then did a good job to get the next two outs. With two on and two out and a 3-2 count, Levi Usher laced a double to right to plate a pair. That began a disastrous series of events, as the next seven hitters would reach(!). A single, HBP, single HBP, single, walk, and error. That debacle led to O'Halloran being yanked, and Allen entering to finish the frame. It was 7-2 L'Ville after one. 

Michigan would get one run back on a Frey HR, but inclement weather would roll in, putting the game into a protracted weather delay. When it resumed, things continued on the same path until the top of the fifth, when an Elliott solo HR and a massive Obertop 3-run bomb tied the game at 7. An inning later, a Ted Burton HR and a Joe Stewart single made it 9-7 Wolverines. Those who had given up hope started to believe, and Cam Weston was cruising. He got two out in the eighth, but as his pitch count rose, he didn't look quite as sharp. The second out in that inning was hit hard but right at Frey, and then Weston surrendered a walk (squeezed by the home plate umpire, but still).

Jack Payton came up to the plate and on a 1-0 pitch, he scorched a ball to left field that missed clearing the fence by only a couple feet. Jordon Rogers played it quickly, threw it in to Riley Bertram, who made the relay to Ted Burton at second. The swipe came across on a bang-bang play. It was ruled safe but a review was quickly triggered. The angle shown seemed pretty definitive: 

Ruled safe even after review... pic.twitter.com/X1tZImFI81

— Mr Matthew CFB 🇺🇦 (@MrMatthewCFB) June 6, 2022

The glove hits the fingers, we see the fingers bend back a bit and the glove move upwards, indicating contact, and then the hand touches the bag. Clear cut, the definition of indisputable video evidence. But the review dragged on and reached its mind numbing conclusion: safe. And this time, the ball in fact did lie. Levi Usher struck again, with a 2RBI single that tied the game. Despite Cam Weston now getting tagged repeatedly, Erik Bakich left him in. A seeming strike was called a ball, and right after that, Cameron Masterman teed off for a two-run blast: 

B8 | 😤😤😤😤😤😤😤

💻 https://t.co/wY15497eSz#GoCards | @Cam_Masterman pic.twitter.com/4Sojh9ql6n

— Louisville Baseball (@LouisvilleBSB) June 6, 2022

Michigan did get the leadoff runner on in the ninth, but couldn't get to the Cardinals' closer Michael Prosecky. 11-9 loss, season over. No Super Regionals. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Season takeaways and 2023]

[Paul Sherman]

Thoughts About the Weekend and Wrapping Up the Season

Look, the umpiring in that 8th inning was a debacle, and was game-altering. Weston getting squeezed by the home plate umpire was bad enough, but the replay review is indefensible. I don't know what the purpose of having replay review is if we're not going to make calls when they need to be made. This sort of play was the reason replay was put into effect and this was not one that is complicated or nuanced. It was one that every person with functioning eyes and a conception of baseball watched and said "oh, he's out".

Indeed, that was the instant reaction of the ESPN+ broadcasters when they saw it for the first time, and those are unbiased viewers. Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball also ripped the decision and I was generally pleased at how little "you know, these are tough, we need to cut the officials slack" there was in this instance. This is not a case where any slack should be cut, because whoever is staffing the replay room failed at their jobs. There isn't much to be said here other than it is a colossal f*** up and an embarrassment for the sport to be happening in the NCAA Tournament. 

That said, I'm not entirely convinced Michigan wins that game even if the call goes their way, given the pitching management we saw from the coaching staff in this one. Starting an ostensibly tired starter to get knocked around and put the team in a 7-run hole didn't make a ton of sense to me, and then continuing to ride Cam Weston even after it was clear he was throwing batting practice was poor decision-making. Weston had given up a hard groundout, a walk, a near-home run, and a line-drive single, and Bakich still let him face one of the two most dangerous hitters in the Louisville order. The hard-contact warning signs were there, but Michigan trudged on. Even if the call is overturned and Michigan gets out of the frame, I have to assume Bakich sends Weston out to start the ninth, and there's no guarantee that would have gone well based on what we witnessed. 

Of course, the counterargument is that Weston was probably Michigan's best arm, and that the replacement options, Rennard and the fresh-off-suspension Willie Weiss, are far from sure things. Which naturally underscores one of the main takeaways about this season from the regional: the pitching needs drastic improvement. That's not breaking news and surprises zero people, but this was not an acceptable pitching staff. They managed to go extremely far with a staff of scotch-tape and glue, but having only ~4 effective pitchers on your roster is not a pathway to success no matter how good your offense is (and Michigan's was very good). It's a steep fall from the Bakich/Fetter staffs of 2019-20 and rectifying it should be the primary objective for next season as Michigan looks ahead. 

[Campredon]

On the flip side, though, the offense proved to be Super Regional caliber, and that's always positive. I wrote last week that we shouldn't merely write off Michigan's offensive performance down the stretch because it was the B1G, and they delivered on that in Louisville. Against two good national programs in Oregon and L'Ville, the Wolverines continued to slug the ball, and their offense did enough to deliver this team to the Super Regionals. Between developing hitters like Elliott, Burton, Obertop, and Flores, and hunting in the transfer portal for Frey and Stewart, Bakich and his staff built an excellent offense that could play with some of the best hitting groups nationally, while being a B1G school. Much like they did with the starting staff a few years ago. That's something to be proud of. 

My biggest takeaway, though, is about how Erik Bakich routinely gets this team playing its best baseball at the end of the season. Everyone remembers the magical 2019 run, but only hardcore fans of the team will remember how disappointing that season had been up to that point. They came in with extremely high expectations and it was largely a flop up until Jordan Nwogu's big hit in the BTT. From then on, the rest is history. This team was in a similar vein, undershooting my preseason expectations until they caught fire late, won a B1G ring, and then put together a Supers-caliber performance in the regional. Whatever this coaching staff has in the formula, it works in late May/early June. 

[Campredon]

Looking Ahead to 2023 

Michigan's vaunted lineup is going to see some changeover next season. Matt Frey and Joe Stewart are both grad transfers who used their COVID-shirts to play at Michigan and are thus out of NCAA eligibility. Clark Elliott has been on MLB draft boards for some time and seems pegged to be drafted in a slot that makes it extremely likely he will turn pro. Those three are near certain to not be on next year's roster, to your author's knowledge. Ted Burton, Tito Flores, and Jimmy Obertop all had nice offensive seasons and are juniors, meaning they are eligible for the draft. They are not thought of as Elliott-level prospects, and thus it comes down to where they are picked (if they are), and whether they feel it is worth it to sign, or to return to school to raise their status another year. 

Riley Bertram was a senior, but has his COVID-shirt available. His strong finish to the season and veteran leadership may make it in Michigan's interest to bring him back for a fifth year. Joey Velazquez and Jake Marti are both juniors, but neither had the sort of seasons you'd expect to attract any real interest from the MLB, and thus should return for their senior campaigns. As a result, I think you're looking at something like 4-5 hitters from this lineup returning next season, and the biggest sluggers will not be returning by and large. I expect Erik Bakich to sift through the portal again to plug some of those holes, but they'll need some younger players to step up. 

Dylan Stanton is the most obvious option, who overall had a good season for someone who entered the year with no NCAA ABs. Trevor Kilinski and Ian Kennedy both only got a few at bats but were once highly touted recruits and will now be juniors. Brandon Lawrence pitched some and hit some, and I suppose is a candidate for an infield position. Cody Hultink came in with decent expectations but did not see the field, and is another player who could be in line for a real role. Dan Blomgren is another name worth throwing out there, even though he has also yet to do much of anything in a Michigan uniform. At the catcher spot, if Obertop does not return, Jordon Rogers is someone gotten a number of looks over the past two seasons, but has not grabbed a starting job. Youngster Joe Longo was recruited as a catcher of the future but did not play as a freshman, and would also be an option. 

[Brad Carlson]

The incoming freshmen class looks to be a pretty good one, but there's uncertainty over who will actually show up on campus following the draft, in addition to tempering immediate expectations because freshmen in college baseball don't have the same impact that they do in other sports. They hold a commitment from Nolan Schubart, an excellent hitter from Orchard Lake St. Mary's, but there is a considerable chance that he will be poached by the MLB Draft. Schubart's teammate, 3B Joe Crighton, is also on MLB draft boards, as is Gregory Pace Jr., an OF from Detroit Edison. With these players, it's more of a wait and see before we can project next season but the ones who do make it to Ann Arbor would definitely be in the conversation to get quick playing time.  

On the pitching side of things, there shouldn't be a ton of change. O'Halloran and Allen, Michigan's two best arms for much of the season, were sophomores and will be back for next season. Jacob Denner, Noah Rennard, and Cameron Weston were all juniors, but the only one of those three I could see attracting any MLB interest is Weston, and even he had an extremely bumpy year that fell far short of expectations. Willie Weiss was a senior but has a COVD-shirt available, as does Walker Cleveland, but I'm not sure why Michigan would use one on the latter given his struggles. Angelo Smith was a graduate student, so he is out of options. Almost everyone else should be back. 

I assume that Michigan will look through the portal for options to try and stabilize the pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation. It's difficult to go through an entire season when you only have one real starter, as was the case for Michigan by the end of the year. I'd look for them to give Logan Wood another shot at a larger role despite his very rough year, while other guys were former touted recruits like Jaylen Jones, Tyler Fullman, and Ahmad Harajli are pieces I could envision emerging as solid contributors.  

The most reasonable expectation for 2023 is for the pitching to be better but the hitting to be worse. It may prove difficult to replace some of the bats that Michigan is set to be losing, but it also won't be easy to have a worse pitching staff than Michigan had for much of the year (they were bottom three in the B1G in ERA a lot of the season). The easiest guess is that the 2023 Wolverines will be in line with where this program has been under Bakich, near the top of the conference and a probable tournament team. They've made the NCAAs in 5 of the last 7 tournaments, and have been in the top five in the B1G in all seven seasons (with two 2nd place finishes and three 3rd place finishes). That's the baseline expectation and with the way recruiting is going and the ability they've shown to scout the transfer portal, there's no reason to me that that won't continue.