So, you might've heard that Michigan Baseball did a thing this weekend. More specifically, they went on a stunning run to win the 2022 B1G Tournament Championship in Omaha, winning four games in four days to knock off each of the teams higher than them in the standings. In the process, they ripped away a bid to the NCAA Tournament (possibly from Rutgers) that a week ago they had no chance in hell of attaining. Thus, Michigan Baseball is off to the big dance for the third straight tournament and the fourth time in five events. It was a big milestone weekend for the program, Erik Bakich's second conference tournament crown, and they got their 15 seconds in the sun of the national landscape. Can they keep it up in the Louisville Regional? Let's take a look: 

 

Recapping Omaha 

Michigan entered the BTT as the #5 seed out of eight teams, drawing #4 Illinois first. Michigan held three separate leads in that one before closing it out, riding Joey Velazquez and Clark Elliott RBI singles in the eighth to snag the edge for good. The next day they matched up with #1 Maryland and it was a classic 2022 Michigan Baseball slugfest. Michigan's hitters went to work against a strong Terps team, leading 5-2 after three and 10-7 after six. It was a bullpen game for the Wolverines, started by Jacob Denner, but five different arms threw and no one got more than two innings. Maryland homered in the top of the seventh to cut the lead to 10-8, but Michigan's hitters poured on five insurance runs in the bottom half, including homers from Elliott and Tito Flores, as well as this squeeze from Jake Marti: 

B7 | SQUEEZE ME!

Marti plates a run with a suicide squeeze #GoBlue 12 - Maryland 8 pic.twitter.com/RKNHcgieRu

— Michigan Baseball (@umichbaseball) May 28, 2022

The Wolverines rode Willie Weiss and Cam Weston in the back half of that game and closed out a 15-8 win. At that point, things were looking pretty good in a double elimination tournament such as the B1G. Michigan advanced into Saturday and awaited the winner of Iowa/Penn State, knowing that they'd need to win only 1/2 against that team to move into the title game. 

The winner of that matchup ended up being #3 Iowa, the B1G's best pitching squad. The pitching of the Hawkeyes showed up in the first battle, as it was scoreless through four, a rarity for this Michigan team. Iowa pulled ahead 3-0 in the sixth, finally getting to Chase Allen, but Michigan added two in the sixth, and had the tying run thrown out at the plate. Unfortunately, the dam finally broke with the Michigan pitching staff, as Denner struggled mightily in the seventh and the game slid out of reach.

The two teams went back at it on Sunday, and this time the Michigan bats had an answer. Connor O'Halloran had a stellar start, Michigan scored two in the first and fourth, and then again faced with a situation where insurance runs would be needed, the Wolverine offense rose to the occasion in the form of a nine-run seventh. Tito Flores and Ted Burton laced doubles, and Clark Elliott had a triple, with those three XBHs combining for eight RBI (!!). Here was Elliott's big knock that put the game on ice: 

T7 | Clark The Spark!

Elliott slices a THREE-RUN TRIPLE to left! #GoBlue 12 - Iowa 1 pic.twitter.com/Wq70T4Kbhu

— Michigan Baseball (@umichbaseball) May 29, 2022

Cam Weston finished the game off, and it was ended on a tournament-specific run-rule, 13-1 after seven innings. That game did contain a major wrench in Erik Bakich's plan, though. Willie Weiss, who was supposed to munch several innings, threw only a few pitches before being ejected for using a banned substance on his glove. That ejection came with it a four-game suspension, meaning he would be unavailable for that night's championship game against Rutgers. That put Bakich in a bit of a pinch, the fifth game in four games, a creaky pitching staff already stretched thin, and without one of the key arms he wanted to use on Sunday. 

Nevertheless, the Weiss suspension proved only a minor roadblock. Michigan grabbed an early 2-0 lead on Rutgers, before the Scarlet Knights answered. Michigan took the lead back on yet another Jake Marti squeeze, then tacked on two more in the next couple innings through a Matt Frey RBI single and a wild pitch. Rutgers threatened in the bottom of the sixth down 5-2, loading the bases with two outs. Denner faced a 2-2 count and dropped a breaking ball in back-door, a nearly unhittable pitch for a righty hitter, and got the called third strike to end the inning. The score was 5-3 into the eighth, and it quickly appeared Michigan would need those magic insurance runs yet again to get the game to the finish line. They got it on a two out, three-run HR from Jimmy Obertop: 

T8 | JIMMY! OH MY GOD!

Wind blowing STRAIGHT in from CF and Obertop CRUSHES a 3-run homer! #GoBlue 8 - RU 3#NCAABaseball pic.twitter.com/B8455boVeg

— Michigan Baseball (@umichbaseball) May 30, 2022

That made it 8-3, and Michigan would tack on two more on another squeeze, this time from a pinch-hitting Jack Van Remortel (!!). Brandon Lawrence handled the seventh and eighth before Allen entered to close it out. A quick three outs later and Michigan were the champs: 

"... the darlings of the 2019 postseason are going back to the regionals!

...they had to knock off the top four seeds in the Big Ten Tournament to do it. They're the first team ever to accomplish that mission." #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/xzWqtFrQXl

— Michigan Baseball (@umichbaseball) June 1, 2022

The program's 10th B1G Tournament title, and second under Erik Bakich (2015). That got the Maize & Blue an autobid into the NCAA Tournament, an event they had no chance of qualifying for as an at-large. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The winning formula & Louisville]

 

[Paul Sherman]

How Michigan is doing it 

As you could probably tell from that weekend recap, the key to success is that Michigan is pounding the baseball. This pre-dates the B1G Tournament as a matter of fact, as Michigan has now scored six or more runs in 12 of their last 13 games. The pitching wasn't anywhere near good enough at the tail-end of the regular season, but they got marginally better pitching in Omaha and combined with the offense continuing to mash, it got them over the finish line in enough games. In the last 13 games, Michigan has a team OBP of .438 (!!); for reference, the NCAA leader in team OBP this season is Texas Southern at .436. Similarly, Michigan's team slugging percentage in that span is .540; that would rank ninth in the NCAA over a full season. They are scoring 10.2 runs per game in the last 13 games, which would also rank among the best in the country over a full season. The offense is clicking at an elite level, just as the most important games of the season are being played. 

The individual pieces are playing at a very high level, but the sum of the parts is even better. Matt Frey is hitting .500 in his last 13 games, Clark Elliott is hitting .340, but with nearly 1.5 walks per game as well. Joe Stewart is hitting .388 in that span, while Riley Bertram has suddenly come alive to hit an identical .388 in that time frame. Jimmy Obertop is also hitting .333 with 11 walks, and when you delve farther down the lineup, you see lower averages but still remarkable power. Joey Velazquez and Jake Marti both are hitting under .250 in the last thirteen, but half of their hits are of the extra-base variety. Similar story with Ted Burton, whose .256 batting average is nothing exciting, but over half of his hits are XBH and he has nine walks as well. Michigan draws a lot of walks and they are hitting for prodigious power, an average of six singles, three doubles, and two homers per game in that span. 

You may be wondering about strength of schedule, which is a fair point. The B1G is a bad league, putting just two teams into the NCAA Tournament. That said, this 13-game stretch has come against the upper tier of the conference, which, while not comparable to the upper tier of the SEC or PAC-12, is still solid. Four of the 13 games have come against Maryland, who is a top ten RPI team and a regional host. An additional four games were against Rutgers, who are top fifty in RPI but were left out of the tournament, a bubble-caliber team.

[Paul Sherman]

Three more were against Iowa and Illinois, neither of whom are tourney teams but both were top 75 in RPI (Iowa in particular was one of the country's better pitching teams). And Wright State accounts for one game, a mid-major yes, but they are in the tourney as the Horizon League's autobid. Michigan State is the only team Michigan has played in the last 13 games who is neither good, nor in the tournament as a mid-major. So while I would not say Michigan's red-hot offensive streak has come against the national cream of the crop, the majority of it has come against RPI top fifty teams. Michigan isn't crushing Cy Young pitchers, but I would definitely advise against teams in the Louisville Regional dismissing the Wolverines' offensive explosion as a figment of the weak B1G. 

As for the pitching, the Wolverines got better pitching in Omaha, but it is still a long, long way from Fetter pitching staffs gone by. Connor O'Halloran and Chase Allen were the bright spots in Omaha, as the two young arms have become integral pieces as long men/starters. O'Halloran gave Michigan nine innings with only three earned runs allowed across two games, while Allen gave the Wolverines eight innings with one earned run allowed in three appearances. Cam Weston has seen his starting privileges revoked (a stunning turn for a pitcher who was expected to be one of the B1G's best starters), but was an indispensable relief arm in Omaha, making three separate appearances totaling seven innings, allowing one run while striking out 11(!). Those three are going to be the arms who will be leaned on most heavily in the Louisville Regional. 

Michigan used Jacob Denner three separate times in Omaha, two of which were good efforts that called back to his solid 2021 campaign, while the other was a reminder of why he has an ERA just under seven. Denner's two outings against Maryland and Rutgers combined for 6.1 innings with just two earned runs and five hits allowed while striking out nine. You take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays. However, in between there he appeared against Iowa, where Denner beaned a batter and gave up three straight singles without recording an out. Denner's ability to eat multiple innings as an ex-starter means that Michigan will have to use him in the regional, they just must cross their fingers and hope it's the good Denner. 

The loss of Willie Weiss really hurts. In theory he could return for a winner-take-all regional final, but Michigan will have to face Oregon and then Louisville at least once each without Weiss. He had been pitching much better as of late, eating multiple innings per outing, still wild on occasion but with good swing-and-miss stuff. For a pitching staff that lacks depth, it stings, especially on something so stupid and preventable. That said, Michigan went 4-1 in the B1G Tournament and Weiss only faced more than one better in one of those games, so they've found a way to get it done before. 

With Weiss out of the equation for the first few games, I'd also look for Noah Rennard to get some run. His two efforts in Omaha were ones he'd like to forget, but had given Michigan decent outs here and there prior to that. Half-position player, half-pitcher Brandon Lawrence closed out the B1G Tourney and has allowed juts one earned run in his last 3.2 IP against Maryland/Rutgers, so he could be an option. His raw stuff looks very hittable if you ask me, though. Avery Goldensoph gave Michigan three scoreless innings against Iowa, but has been shelled earlier in the season. Walker Cleveland is good for 1-2 innings but will likely give up at least one run doing it. 

Overall, this is not a good pitching staff. Michigan is not going to be able to beat teams if their offense isn't scoring 5+ runs, but right now, it is on a very regular basis. The pitching did just enough in Omaha to allow ~5 runs against instead of 10 thanks to guys like Allen, O'Halloran, Denner, and Weston. With the bats destroying entire planets on each swing, it was a winning combination. This is a full-on Air Raid, Big XII football type team, one that will go as far as their offense can take them. 

 

[Brad Carlson]

Previewing the Louisville Regional 

The selection committee must like offense, because they paired Michigan with several other teams about whom you could also say the words "they will go as far as their offense can take them". The Maize & Blue find themselves as the (3) seed in a region with (1) Louisville, (2) Oregon, and (4) Southeast Missouri State. Here are some quick stats about those teams: 

TEAM	OBP, Rank	SLG, rank	ERA, rank	Runs per game
Louisville	.414 (14th)	.513 (17th)	5.29 (118th)	8.68
Oregon	.390 (68th)	.475 (65th)	4.60 (55th)	7.29
Michigan	.391 (64th)	.479 (61st)	6.81 (236th)	8.05
SE MO St.	.377 (128th)	.483 (46th)	5.53 (134th)	7.33

As you can see, these are four very good offensive teams. They score a lot of runs, get on base, hit for power, and none of them pitch terribly well, though Oregon would be considered the best in that regard. You also get to see just how apocalyptically bad Michigan's pitching has been for much of this season. The Wolverine pitching staff has been better recently, with a 6.08 ERA in the last eight games, and even that number is spiked by an ugly 18 earned runs against game (!!) vs Rutgers at the end of the regular season. Take that one out, and the number plummets to 4.28. In the B1G Tourney, it was 4.61. That sort of clip can get them out of the regional, provided the offense stays hot. An ERA of 6-7 probably can't. 

Oregon is the first opponent Michigan will face, a little bit worse offensively than Michigan or Louisville but the best pitching team here. The Ducks are 28th in RPI, 18-12 in the PAC-12 and 35-23 overall. A good team, and a pretty classic 2nd seed in a given regional. They had a quick exit from the PAC-12 Tournament, but will provide a good test for the Wolverines. Oregon boasts a very modern pitching staff, with only one real starter (Isaac Ayon), otherwise possessing twelve total players who have started a game and ten who have made at least three starts. Based on their schedule, the most common pitching breakdown for Oregon in Friday games this season has been RJ Gordon and Christian Ciufetelli piggybacking on each other, while Ayon is the Saturday starter. 

[Pac-12.com]

What Oregon lacks in old-school starting arms, they make up for with a deep bullpen. Seven pitchers have thrown 15+ innings while maintaining an ERA below 4.50, something Michigan would kill to have. In total, fourteen pitchers have thrown between 14 and 40 innings. Only Gordon and Ayon have thrown more than that. A generic game for the Ducks is one in which four or five arms cobble together 1-2 innings each and get the game to the finish line. Not unlike Michigan, but Michigan having that sort of game generally doesn't end well for them. 

As for the hitters, Oregon has seven players who have started nearly every game. All boast an OBP north of .360 and a SLG north of .425. They can hit. The Ducks average 1.24 home runs per game, a bit below Michigan's clip but still top 100 nationally. Anthony Hall is the big hitter to watch, 14 jacks and an OPS well above 1.000, but this is a balanced and strong lineup. I would expect Michigan and Oregon to be a long, high-scoring game with a lot of pitching changes, walks, and extra base hits. There is a scenario where Oregon's pitching keeps Michigan in check, I suppose, but a shootout feels far more likely. That game will be at 7 pm EST on Friday night, on ESPN+. 

If Michigan wins, they will likely play Louisville, the host of the regional and the national #12 seed. Michigan and Louisville already know each other, having played a three game set in Kentucky back in early March. You may recall that series because it had a mid-game snowstorm that suspended play in the middle game of the set. Louisville took two of three in that series, with each team winning a blowout and then the Cardinals taking the first game in tight 5-3 fashion. Cam Weston was the starter for that game and did alright overall. O'Halloran started the middle game (which Michigan won) and was decent, while the third game saw Jacob Denner get pummeled like Aidan Hutchinson hitting Sean Clifford. Chase Allen also threw in that one and didn't do a ton better. 

[Adam Creech/Louisville Athletics]

The Wolverine bats exploded in the middle game, but were very quiet in the first and third. For the series, they were held to a .666 OPS, which is a mighty impressive feat for the L'Ville pitching staff. Starters Tate Kuehner and Riley Phillips held the Michigan bats in check, while Will Koger was knocked around (and has since been relegated on the pitching staff pecking order). Entering the NCAAs, Louisville is rolling with Jared Poland as the Friday starter, while the latter two spots have been split between Carter Lohman, Kuehner, and Phillips. As always in these double elim brackets, the pitching staffs get shuffled, and the importance of starters and set roles are diminished. 

The bullpen is not as deep as Oregon's. The starters mentioned in the preceding paragraph do a good chunk of the lifting for the staff overall, and the farther you go down the list of names, the uglier it gets. I'd watch out for Michael Prosecky, Garrett Schmaltz, and Ryan Hawks as candidates to close out games if Louisville needs to get a tight win. Prosecky got the save in the 5-3 game between these two teams, with Hawks serving in setup duty for that one. There is definitely the potential, though, for Louisville's bullpen to get knocked around if Michigan's offense could make an early and significant dent in the starter, drawing the middle relievers out of the pen. 

The Cardinals have a pretty set lineup, with nine players who have started at least 40 games. Dalton Rushing and Ben Metzinger both clobber the baseball, boasting >15 HRs each (Rushing is top 25 nationally with 21 bombs). Christian Knapczyk, who has dealt with an injury as of late but played in the ACC Tournament, and Rushing both get on at >.470, while Levi Usher has 33 steals (!) which ranks 11th nationally. It's an offense that can do a little bit of everything, hit for power, average, draw walks, and place pressure on the base paths. Hence why they rank in the elite tier of teams in most offensive categories. 

[Brad Carlson]

Southeast Missouri State deserves a quick mention as the fourth team here. They would likely be Michigan's opponent if the Wolverines drop the first game to Oregon. The Redhawks are not the same caliber as the other teams here, but they can hit as well. The pitching staff was not great, which is a bit concerning for them when you then do the strength of schedule adjustment, and so I think the most likely outcome of a Mich/SE MO St. matchup would be the Wolverine offense battering them. But, there's also a scenario where Michigan's pitching staff just totally falls apart and they lose a high-scoring affair. 

In the end, when sizing up the four teams here, Louisville is definitely the best team. The hosts have the best offense when extrapolating across a full season and adjusting for strength of schedule, and their pitching staff, while not incredible, isn't abject. Oregon and Michigan are pretty close I think, though the Ducks get the nod for the full season of work. That said, you can never discount the hot team, one who is hitting and pitching their best all season. Moreover, this is college baseball. It's not as chalk(y) as the softball tournament (though this year's softball tourney has been more upset-heavy than normal). In any given year, 4-8 regional hosts don't win their regional, and it wouldn't be hard to imagine one team not winning their host regional being a 12th seeded squad like Louisville. Does that mean Michigan is definitely the team to upset them? Nope! It could easily be Oregon.

I wouldn't go to Vegas to put money on Michigan advancing here, but if they bring the same level of play from Omaha, they will be a tough out in Louisville. This is a confident team playing good baseball, with one element of the team that is legitimately clicking at an elite level (like the starting pitching was in 2019), and you can never underestimate that.