Each of the two preceding years saw Michigan Hockey's season ended by COVID-19. They had a decent shot of making the NCAA Tournament in March of 2020, but then the world fell apart and the tournament was canceled. In 2021, they drew this region. Woof. Could they have won a game? Perhaps. Two? Ehhhhh...I'm guessing no. But this year...THIS YEAR...this is The Year. This has to be the year...right? Well, as much as any year is THE YEAR, this is THE YEAR for Michigan Hockey. This is the best team since at least 2008. And if not then, we're talking sometime since before Alex Drain was born. They have the #1 overall seed. They've played half of the teams in the tournament in preparation (if there is preparation for such a thing *breathes heavily into a paper bag*). There are no discernible weaknesses; they've won every conceivable type of game. All that's left to do is...win four consecutive random hockey games in WhoKnowsWhereVille USA!

Why do we do this to ourselves... 
 

The Field

[For those who want to see a more detailed bracket, click HERE]

Michigan’s Regional (Allentown, PA )

(1) Michigan, (2) Quinnipiac, (3)St. Cloud State, (4) American International: This...is a pretty nice draw, actually. They avoided all of the *GULP* teams in ND, The Other ND, and Duluth. Wow. Hey, alright. But I guess it should be, since Michigan is the #1 overall seed. The regular season should mean something, darnit! They draw the automatic qualifier from Atlantic Hockey and then would face the winner of Quinnipiac and St Cloud State...two teams who could not be more different. The Q-Pac Bobcats use the Six Goalie technique to beat up on the ECAC. St Cloud is Michigan under RichRod in 2010. Run 'n Gun, SCORES, Best Power Play in the Country...but finishes fifth in their conference. Too bad we're in...uh...*checks notes* Allentown? Yikes. Too bad we can't do this at Yost instead and, you know, actually have fans (as I've written about here: one, two, or three).

(1) Michigan vs (4) American International

This is it. Don't get scared now. [Zoey Holmstrom]

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against American International (because David is trying to steal parts from the full preview on Friday):

1. ATTACK! Alex has done some research, and we chatted about how and why these supreme underdogs upset #1 seeds. Usually, it's when very few goals are scored. The Mighty Mites sit back, defend, and try to Goalie you. So...within this insane randomness...try not to let that happen. Push the envelope and try to jump on them early and often. Score goals and change the complexion of the game from the initial faceoff. Like we've seen against Michigan State (and Notre Dame, even though they are a legit team), getting goal(s) early forces them out of their comfort zone and into an actual hockey game. Obviously, getting Goalie'd isn't something that is always controllable, but the longer you sit back and wait for perfect chances, being patient and trying not to make a mistake...the longer AIC will believe they belong in the game and all they need is a break here or there. End it early. Plus, if you make a mistake, Erik Portillo has been money shutting down chances.

2. Play With Underdog Intensity. Despite being the higher ranked and favored team in the last couple of games against Notre Dame and Minnesota, Michigan played as if they were not. They skated harder, won puck/board battles, and took charge in each of the game. One of the bug-a-boos that this team has had from time to time is complacency. Generally, the Wolverines are the more talented team that should win the statistical battle (and, I mean, the game), but not skating with a sense of urgency has done them in before...or at least created unnecessary peril. They've hopefully got four games left together. Might as well play like it.

3. Don't Take A Major. Lol. In Elimination Hockey, that's a great way to give the underdog some life. Also, Michigan leads the world in doing this (probably). Have they been called consistently OR fairly? Ha. That's not the point, though. When in tricky situations, don't make a questionable hit...like, say, when you can see the opponent's last name and numbers right in front of your face. American International has a solid power play. Maybe don't give them an extended look.

Final Thoughts: I mean, look...Michigan is the #1 overall. This is the most talented Michigan team since at least 2008 and possibly ever. They might be the most talented team in college hockey history. They are playing an automatic qualifier who would not make the tournament if every conference wasn't guaranteed a spot. On paper, this is barely worth talking about. If this game were played in November, Alex would be rolling his eyes at me note-taking. But this is March and we've got the most ridiculous tournament format known to man. Michigan wins ANY series length against AIC (and quite possibly any other opponent they will face subsequently). But in one game? Ugh. Just don't do anything drastically terrible. If they play the way they've been playing since they walked out of Compton Ice Arena in on February 27th, they should be fine. Hopefully.

Alex's Take: Michigan should win this game. As long as they play their game and put the puck in the back of the net, they should win. The Wolverines have much better players, AIC isn't a defensive juggernaut, even in their conference, they don't have a crazy good goalie, and they got smoked by UMass, who Michigan handled easily. Go out and score a couple quickly and put the game out of reach and skate into Sunday. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: All of the games that don't involve Michigan]

Michigan’s Other Regional Game:

(2) Quinnipiac  vs (3) St Cloud State

David’s Take: This is fascinating. The Bobcats are All Brakes, No Gas. The Huskies are FIREWAGON HOCKEY. It feels like SCS is the better team because they are favored, talented, balanced, and tested...but Q-Pac has the goalies. Plus, Q-Pac's style would probably make Michigan's route more difficult. Fine. Bring it. Quinnipiac polls their way to the next round.

Alex’s Take: This is the Oil and Water matchup as I called it on the HockeyCast. QPac is all defense and limited offense, and they haven't played anyone, whereas St. Cloud is an offensive-minded team that's played everyone. QPac played only three games against teams in the top 16 of the KRACH ratings, whereas St. Cloud has played 24 such games (!). Two teams that couldn't be more different. I have maintained my position of being moderately skeptical about Quinnipiac, because their SV% and goals scored per game are very pedestrian against mediocre to good teams, but they can still trap you in a low-event slogfest. In the NCAA Tournament, I like the team that's been battled tested and prepared to play in a big game, and that's St. Cloud State. Huskies move on to Sunday. 

Regional Winner - David: It's hard to hand pick a better regional for Michigan. They are definitely better than all three other teams. They beat AIC relatively easily, then struggle for a bit with Q-Pac's Siege before finally breaking through and easing to a plural goal win and their first Frozen Four berth since the Other Hughes was a freshman (2018).

Regional Winner - Alex: Michigan. They are the best team here, and I don't think it's terribly close. I picked St. Cloud over QPac and that style suits the Wolverines, resulting in a higher scoring Regional Final, but one in which the Wolverines have the better goaltender and the better shooters. Michigan bludgeons AIC and then moves past St. Cloud 5-3 to advance to the Frozen Four in Boston.  

Not sure how much of this will be happening in the Mountain Time Zone [James Coller]

Loveland, CO Regional

(1) Denver, (2) Minnesota-Duluth, (3) Michigan Tech, (4) Mass-Lowell : Denver is a trendy pick to go far. They have a lot. Duluth is...ha, well, themselves. Michigan Tech doesn't give up goals. Mass-Lowell...also doesn't give up goals. I think this is a great regional for chalk in the first round...which means there will probably be two upsets. 

(2) Minnesota-Duluth vs (3) Michigan Tech 

David’s Take: Alex's Personal Rival against the Sorcerers. Michigan has played both of these teams and tied 0-0 Tech during the Fake Juniors Tournament when multiple Wolverines were gone. The Techies didn't score. The only reason to pick Tech is randomness...but the Duluth Overtime Sorcerers basically have that already figured out. Duluth wins.

Alex’s Take: Really not buying Michigan Tech this season, not just because of their toothless performance against Michigan at Yost in December, but they're 1-3-4 against KRACH top twenty teams this season. The four OT games stand out and they do have solid goaltending from Blake Pietila, seemingly the 17th Pietila to play at Tech, so they could get in a goaltending duel with Ryan Fanti and Duluth... but I just like the Bulldogs. Postseason play, Duluth always takes it up a notch and they're hot off of winning the Frozen Faceoff. UMD is through. 

(1) Denver vs (4) Mass-Lowell

David’s Take: Denver is a really good team...which means they are primed to be plink-o'd. Mass-Lowell has the goaltending, but can they skate with the favored Pioneers? Probably not. Denver takes advantage of the home crowd and advances. 

Alex’s Take: I just don't see much that excites me from Lowell. I guess they're good defensively but they don't score at all. They're also from a weak conference and they're facing a Denver team that I thought was the third best team in the country this year. Oh and Denver is at home in Loveland. The River Hawks can pull the upset because of course that could happen, but I don't think it will. Pioneers are moving on. 

Regional Winner - David: Alex says he doesn't believe in ghosts. Maybe he will after this weekend. Denver's goaltending is meh. Their PK is sub 80%. Duluth and their goalie have been on fire. Plus, if Michigan is finally to right all of the wrongs, they must Dance with the Devil Duluth in the pale Boston moonlight.

Regional Winner - Alex: Denver and Duluth pits the nation's best offense in the Pioneers against a goalie with a .926 SV% playing the hardest schedule in America for the Bulldogs. This will be a bloodbath game if it happens. These two teams met last Friday at the NCHC Frozen Faceoff and Duluth prevailed 2-0. Defense and goaltending won the first matchup, but this time, I think it's the offense that strikes back. Bobby Brink, Carter Savoie, and the Denver offense hang four on Fanti and book their tickets to Boston.  

Says it all [Patrick Barron]

Albany, NY Regional

(1) Minnesota State, (2) North Dakota, (3) Notre Dame, (4) Harvard : Whoa! If Michigan had not beaten Minnesota in the B10 Championship, they could have this region...maybe not Notre Dame. Still, NoDak is, well, NoDak. Notre Dame is the team no one wants to play in a one-game playoff. And Harvard is loaded! Whomever wins this regional might need that extra week off! Every time I look at this regional, I pick a different winner. 

(1) Minnesota State  vs (4) Harvard 

David’s Take: Man. The Screaming Eagles are neck and neck with Michigan. They just miss the top overall seed and get...this. I mean, I think they win because they are that good and don't have any real holes, but Harvard is dangerous. If Michigan got Harvard, I would be very nervous. Still, Harvard already did their Good Deed by ending Ohio State's season. Sorry, Crimson, only one Good Deed allowed.

Alex’s Take: Tricky, tricky matchup here. Harvard has lots more talent than your typical four seed, boasting a core of dudes who will be in the NHL sooner than later, including Matthew Coronato and Nick Abruzzese. Minnesota State is the archetypical old and big college hockey team. They used to be the great paper tiger of the NCAA Tournament, but Minn. State played a solid non-con schedule and did well, so I think they're for real. Harvard will be a good test, but the Crimson still only got .919 goaltending in a conference where 90% of the teams don't have an offensive pulse. That seems bad to me when you're facing Dryden McKay in the other net. Harvard will keep it close, but the Mavs move on to the Regional Final.  

(2) North Dakota vs (3) Notre Dame 

David’s Take: We Are! ND! We Are Also! ND! Digging a little bit deeper the Fighting Sioux Fighting Hawks have a couple more weaknesses than normal. Their PK is oof. They might have the worst goaltending numbers in the tournament...ouch. Also, NoDak doesn't have their usual glut of scorers. Will Jake Sanderson play? If he doesn't, look out. They kinda look like ND...but the Other ND (but with worse goaltending and special teams). Which ND is which?? Will anyone ever know? I'm picking ND. HAHA Okay, okay, okay. The Irish are just the worst matchup in these situations. They beat the Fighting Hawks.

Alex’s Take: It would appear that North Dakota has not gotten great goaltending but if you do some digging, you'll find that goalie Zach Driscoll (Bemidji's goalie last year, who pulled off the upset of the tourney over Wisconsin) has been much better as of late, boasting a .947 SV% since Jan. 29. North Dakota is, unsurprisingly, 10-2-1 over that stretch, with wins over some of the best teams in college hockey. They were blazing hot down the stretch and though the early exit in the Frozen Faceoff dampened things a bit, I like this team. Despite how snakebitten Michigan fans are, Notre Dame is not a particularly great team this year, going to overtime quite often to cobble together their resume. North Dakota played a more difficult schedule and they're favored in this matchup for a reason... because they're better. The green and white ND advances. 

Regional Winner - David: ND ND's Other ND. Minnesota State dodges a 3 4 seed terror. Now what? The Irish shoot down the Fighting Hawks, but cannot capture the Screaming Eagles. Beating one bird in hand, but not two in a bush? Something like that. Hayden Fox lives! Minnesota State advances. 

Regional Winner - Alex: A matchup between Minnesota State and North Dakota would be a ton of fun, a border state rivalry and two teams with plenty of NCAA experience. The Mavs are trying to make it back to the Frozen Four, while North Dakota is trying to avoid losing in this very round for the second straight year. That will give NoDak a bit of hunger and there's one thing I like about them: they are 9-5 against KRACH Top 8 teams, one of the best marks in this tournament. They have some ugly losses on their schedule but a ton of marquee wins, a giant killer you could say. Minnesota State is a giant, and North Dakota slays the beast and heads to the Frozen Four. 

UMass does have a puncher's chance [James Coller]

Worcester, MA Regional

(1) Western Michigan, (2) Minnesota, (3) Massachusetts, (4) Northeastern: The Broncos are a senior-laden, experienced team. Will their defense hold up, though? We know they are triggered. Minnesota is basically Michigan, maybe just a cut lower. Massachusetts won the whole darn thing last season. And the Northeastern Fighting Craig Rosses are not a very good team, but they have Devon Levi in net. Wow, another stacked regional.

(2) Minnesota vs (3) Massachusetts

David’s Take: Minuteman goalie Matt Murray (not that Matt Murray) was one of the best goalies Michigan saw this year. UMass also has Bobby Trivigno who has a 20-28-48 stat line this season. I think they lost too much, though. We know the Gophers are loaded and motivated for a tournament run. Bill Murray's archnemeses take down the Revolutionary War Heroes.  

Alex’s Take: The Hockey East was weak this season and I think the evidence of that is this matchup. Michigan saw both of these teams and the games were pretty close against Minnesota and not at all against Massachusetts. Based on that, I feel like the 36.7% probability that UMass wins seems way too high, but they deserve some credit. They are defending champions, have some NHL talent, and are a well-rounded team. But Minnesota has played very well in the second half of the season and has even more talent. Give me the Gophers to overcome the hostile Worcester crowd. 

(1) Western Michigan vs (4) Northeastern

David’s Take: #Narrative has Western stampeding to Boston to face the team that ducked them earlier this season (even though the teams already played twice). Unfortunately, the rule says: Not All One Seeds Advance. Northeastern is not the best team in the postseason, but they might be the scariest. Devon Levi gets this one. Craig Ross is very happy.

Alex’s Take: Northeastern is a team that has a good amount of NHL talent but somehow has put together a lackluster team carried by its Olympian goalie, Devon Levi. Western Michigan was a good team that give Michigan fits, but their performance in NCHC play was not as encouraging... 6-8-2 against the KRACH top eight and 11-10-3 against the KRACH top sixteen. That reads more like a two or three seed than a one seed. I need to pick one four seed to win, so I'm going to copy David here. Brandon Bussi allows a couple soft goals to Northeastern and Levi puts the clamps on. 

Regional Winner - David: "The magic happens once and ONLY once!" Levi cannot double-down his performance. Minnesota makes their first Frozen Four in eight years.

Regional Winner - Alex: This is the region where we both agree. Northeastern isn't going to steal two games, and the Gophers have played well enough down the stretch that I like them into the Frozen Four.