2021-22 B1G Basketball Season Preview... previously: Season preview podcast, Power Rankings Lower Half, Power Rankings Upper Half, Guards

Yesterday we kicked off the positional preview portion of this season preview by looking at guards. Now we pivot to the wing position, encompassing a range of SG to PF and totaling five names. It begins with a lanky shooter who is poised to be Michigan basketball's next great Canadian star: 

 

Caleb Houstan

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 6’8/205

Recruiting Profile: Five-star, #10 overall, #3 PF, Hello post

After the tease that was the 2020 recruiting class, Juwan Howard’s first five star to officially commit and arrive in Ann Arbor is Caleb Houstan. Houstan is a native of Mississauga, ON, the third notable Michigan player in the last decade to hail from the Greater Toronto Area (following Iggy Brazdeikis and Nik Stauskas). Houstan left his Ontario roots for high school, moving to attend Montverde Academy in Florida, where he played alongside future top five NBA draft picks Cade Cunningham and Scottie Barnes. As a junior, he played a mostly off-ball shooting role and shot 52% from beyond the arc. That number dipped to 39% as Houstan was asked to play a more central role in the offense as a senior, following the graduation of many of Montverde’s heavy hitters, but both of those percentages indicate a very good shooting talent.

Pretty much everyone agrees that Caleb Houstan can shoot the basketball. Here’s some of Matt’s scouting report (emphasis mine):

“Houstan is one of the premier perimeter shotmakers in America. He’s at his best as a catch and shoot threat coming off screens or from a stationary position on the wing/corners. His mechanics are remarkably consistent, with a high release point, good arch and nice rotation. The sheer volume of his makes that don’t touch the rim is almost unbelievable. While Caleb has more of a set-shot, his combination of size/length will make that largely irrelevant at the college level, where closeouts aren’t likely to bother his shot. He also excels at relocating to give his guard optimal passing windows that maximize spacing.

While he was primarily an off-ball shooter for a loaded Montverde team during his junior season, Houstan was more of an on-ball option in the half-court for Canada at the 2019 FIBA U16s. He did display some ability to create plays for himself and others in that setting, but he’s not a shifty prospect that changes direction with a live dribble very often. He’s more adept at attacking in a straight line after getting off-ball screens, while flashing the occasional pull-up from midrange and isolation drive from the wing.

As a finisher, I really like Caleb’s willingness to use his body to negate shotblocking. He consistently gets into the chest of the defender to create space and convert or draw fouls. He shot nearly 9 free throws per contest during the 2019 FIBAs because of this exact approach. That is extremely impressive for a prospect whose best weapon is a catch-and-shoot jumper. While he’s not a great athlete, his size/length and physicality as a finisher probably means he’ll be solid at drawing free throws for the Wolverines when attacking closeouts.”

Houstan’s role in Michigan’s offense as a freshman will more closely resemble his junior year at Montverde, likely receiving passes from Devante’ Jones, Hunter Dickinson, and Eli Brooks, and being asked to get up his shot. There’s a lot of reason to believe that will go well. Athleticism is not considered one of the top components of Houstan’s profile, but his shooting ability and length will make him a dangerous offensive player at Michigan, and it finds him in the lottery of preseason NBA Draft projections.

Defensively, no one expects Houstan to be a 1:1 replacement for Franz Wagner at the SF position, but Matt didn’t seem too worried in his hello post about Houstan’s ability to at least be playable defensively:

Defensively, Houstan is solid at jumping passing lanes on the wing where his length aids him in getting deflections and steals. He doesn’t move well enough to defend legitimate guards, but his size/length will allow him to defend pure wings as a freshman and he’ll likely add enough muscle mass/strength to defend bully-ball power forwards down the line.

If Houstan can be a solid defender, shoot 38-40% from three on solid volume, and occasionally put the ball on the floor to get fouls at the rack, he will be a great B1G player who Michigan will gladly start at the three.

Houstan highlights, for those interested: 

Role: Houstan enters the season as the projected starting SF (he started the exhibition against WSU). The maturity he brings to his game and the polished skillset as a plug and play shooter make him nearly impossible to keep out of the lineup so long as the threes are going down at a reasonable rate. When we talk about Michigan needing to replace perimeter shooting talent that exited after last season, we’re really turning to Caleb Houstan and quoting Rick Blaine by saying “here’s looking at you, kid”. Houstan enters the season as a frontrunner for B1G Freshman of the Year, and if he clicks, it’s quite possible he sees close to 30 minutes per game at the SF position. Houstan is the most crucial freshman on Michigan’s roster because of that sizable projected role.

[AFTER THE JUMP: The junkyard dog has slimmed down]

 

It's November, why not wear long sleeves? [MG Campredon]

Terrance Williams II

Year: Sophomore

Height/Weight: 6’7/230

Key Counting Stats: 7.6 MPG, 1.9 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 0.4 APG, 0.2 SPG, .359/.071/.550

Key Advanced Stats: 19.2% Usage, 86.0 ORtg, 6.6 OR%, 25.9 DR%, 17.7 TORate, 8.6 Assist Rate, 51.3 FTRate, 1.5 Steal Rate

The returning player who might be getting the most hype from practice reports is Terrance Williams II. Per the listed roster weight, T-Will dropped 10 pounds in the offseason, but some reports reckon it may have even been a larger weight loss, with Matt D describing it as a “total body transformation” on the preseason pod. A slimmer Williams who shoots the basketball much better is the dream scenario for his sophomore season. We’ll see if that comes to be.

Terrance Williams II’s freshman year at Michigan saw him play a decent amount, but rarely for the sorts of extended stretches necessary to really get a young player in rhythm. On the other hand, he was rarely good enough offensively to justify a longer look. ‘Tis the trade off with young talent. Williams averaged just under 8 minutes per game, playing in 21 of Michigan’s 28 games in 2020-21, typically at either the 3, 4, or 5, banging around with larger bodies and showing off a hustle that made some call him a “junkyard dog”. His 25.9% defensive rebound rate is astronomically high for a player his size. Yes, it was skewed by playing a small role, but that was the highest defensive rebounding rate on the team, nearly 5 points better than Hunter Dickinson. While T-Will playing 14% of Michigan’s minutes is a small role, it isn’t so small that we can’t infer something there. The dude attacks the glass with aggression despite his height:

His motor and defensive energy were admirable. While Williams was always going to be at a disadvantage defensively when he played 5 due to his height, he was still able to get a few blocks and hang in there:

What prevented Williams from getting a bigger role, though, was on the offensive side of the ball. In particular, he couldn’t shoot to save his life, pretty much from anywhere on the court. T-Will finished the season 1 for 14 from beyond the arc, and his free throw shooting wasn’t much better, memorably causing a near-meltdown against Penn State when the Nittany Lions targeted the young forward’s free throw shooting late through intentional fouls. Without the ability to shoot the ball, he was a major drag on Michigan’s floor spacing and displayed only so-so finishing inside. The result? An 86.0 ORtg on decent usage when he was on the floor. Not good.

The optimistic projection entering this season is that Williams didn’t enter Michigan as a project shooting weak spot. His Hello post featured the following quote from Matt D:

“He's also a solid shooter from beyond the arc that can stretch out a defense from the perimeter.”

There was really nothing to suggest from his HS tape that the shooting from all over the floor was going to be so poor, which means we could be in for some significant improvement this year. It's hard to remember but Eli Brooks and Moe Wagner were both poor perimeter shooters early in their careers before growing into much better ones. So far, the indications are pretty positive, which has been driving the pre-season hype. Matt reported on the podcast that T-Will was Michigan’s best three-point shooter in a drill he witnessed (?!?!), and the coaching staff is raving about the progress that Williams has made. He shot 1/3 from beyond the long-line in the exhibition game. 

A slimmer Williams who shoots a respectable clip from three would be a very valuable rotational piece, still able to bring his defensive intensity, rebounding, and versatility, but combine it with a more dangerous offensive profile, one that could attack more off the dribble and open the floor up from a spacing standpoint. Not to mention helping to replace some of the threes Michigan lost when Chaundee Brown graduated. A Brown-like player is probably the best case for Williams this season, although he would provide the ability to play the PF and C spot in a pinch, which Brown could not.

Role: We know that Juwan and the coaching staff are big fans of Terrance Williams II, and if he has made a leap in his game, we could be in for quite a bit of him this season. At the very least, I’d think he’s going to soak up the remaining minutes at the three behind Houstan (10-15?), and then will probably get a few in the front court. If Williams is playing well, he will probably force the hand of the coaches to find ways to get him more minutes. Luckily, his positional versatility shouldn’t make that too difficult.

 

If the shot falls, Barnes might play [Campredon]

Isaiah Barnes

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 6’7/185

Recruiting Profile: Four star, #115 overall, #25 SF, Hello post 

Isaiah Barnes has ended up being one of the more overlooked pieces of the 2021 Michigan recruiting class, nestled just outside the top 100, not a blue-chip guy like the four players in the class ranked above him, but also not memorable for being a three star like Will Tschetter. Instead, Barnes, who was the first commit of the class, is the one that your author most often forgets about. Which is a shame, because there’s a package of skills here to pique your interest, even if we may not see many of them in 2021-22.

Barnes comes from the Chicagoland area, not playing elite competition like Diabate or Houstan, and then having to endure a delayed/abbreviated senior season. As a prospect, most see Barnes as a swiss-army knife type who can brings a smorgasbord of attributes to the table that all have the potential to develop into plus tools. Matt (emphasis mine):

“He’s a physically developed athlete with some vertical explosion at the rim when finishing. Solid first-step acceleration for a wing and good strength for a senior-to-be in High School. I don’t think absorbing contact will be an issue for Isaiah. He projects to have a college ready frame as a freshman and should be able to compete physically the first day he sets foot on campus.

As a shooter, he displays very good lower body balance on his jumper with good elevation. Has a bit of extra motion on his mechanics, but nothing that’s of great concern. Hits pull-up jumpers from both distance and midrange. Good catch and shoot floor spacer as well.

Barnes is intriguing as a shot creator with an above average handle and the ability to change direction/speed off the with a live dribble. Projects as versatile wing that can score from multiple spots on the court and have some on-ball duty depending on the matchup.

On the other end of the court Isaiah has some real potential as a plus defender with his combination of size, strength and athleticism. He probably doesn’t move well enough to defend quicker guards in the B10, but certainly has the tools to adequately defend most SGs, SFs and perhaps PFs depending on how much muscle mass he adds to his frame”

You can see what I’m talking about from that block, a sort of summary that makes you wonder “what can’t he do?”. The problem is that (per practice reports) none of the tools may be polished enough yet to be assets at the NCAA level, which could hold back his playing time as a freshman. The deficit of lateral quickness defensively also could keep him off the court, but there is the possibility that the shooting could negate it.

Dylan Burkhardt of UMHoops clipped together footage of Barnes and found that Barnes shot 43% from three in the 40 3PT attempts that he tracked. He also tracked his overall shot volume and noted that the majority of Barnes’ shots come from beyond the arc. If he can be a catch-and-shoot weapon from distance as a freshman, then there may well be a path to playing time. That’s probably the only path to a rotational role, though, and it’s reasonable to expect it not to happen yet. For reference, Barnes played just over 6 minutes in the exhibition. 

Some Barnes footage, for those interested: 

Role: I think it’s more likely than not that Barnes is outside the rotation this season, getting minutes mostly in garbage time and perhaps larger stretches in the cupcake games. Unless the shooting pulls through, the defensive questions, the adjustment in the quality of competition, and some murmurs about needing to sharpen up on the fundamentals appear poised to hold Barnes back from a slot in the rotation. Not to mention that there are a lot of bodies he’s competing with to get playing time, and it’s hard right now to believe Barnes is ahead of any of them (Kobe Bufkin, Terrance Williams II, Caleb Houstan). So we’ll slate him for a reserve role this year, and check back when Barnes is a sophomore.

 

Maybe more of a Nuñez role this year? [Campredon]

Adrien Nuñez

Year: Senior

Height/Weight: 6’6/220

Key Counting Stats: 3.4 MPG, 0.6 PPG, 0.4 RPG, .333/.000/----

Key Advanced Stats: 14.8% Usage, 92.2 ORtg, 13.0 OR%, 3.6 DR%, 142 FTRate (lol)

The boomers reading this post may not know that Nuñez is something of a G-List internet celebrity, boasting 2.8 M followers on TikTok (you read that correctly) and has launched his own clothing line thanks to the advent of the new NIL rules. The enjoyment he seems to get from his internet fame and the amount that his teammates seem to like him in practice and on the bench is my best shot at explaining why Nuñez is still at Michigan as a senior, despite playing in an era where anyone who was a vaguely sought-after recruit that fails to get playing time at their original school bolts to the transfer portal like they’re running from a horde of wasps.

Nuñez was a vaguely sought-after recruit, once upon a time. The Brooklyn native was considered a three-point marksman who Beilein brought to Michigan because of the whole “three-point marksman” thing back in the 2018 recruiting class. There were always questions whether his defensive issues would keep him out of the rotation, but it was assumed that the one thing Nuñez could do was shoot the three. He has not been able to shoot the three at all in NCAA play.

We’re constantly treated to reports of how dead-on Nuñez is from distance in practice (heck, he won the three-point contest at Michigan Madness), yet he is 12 for 58 (20.7%) from three over three seasons at Michigan. When a Just A Shooter can’t hit the broad side of a barn, they’re not going to see the floor much, and Nuñez hasn’t. Every attempt to get him into the rotation from Juwan Howard has ended shortly after it began. We're hearing reports that he may get one more shot at it (he played a good bit in the exhibition), but color me skeptical that it lasts, considering that this team is vastly deeper and more talented than the one Howard inherited two years ago.

Unless the threes start falling, Nuñez probably will be constrained to garbage time, but he will continue to be TikTok famous and to him, that seems A-OK. He came back to Michigan as a senior to get a degree and to enjoy his teammates’ company, not on some assurance that he’d be a rotational piece, and I 100% respect it.

Role: Likely the Human Victory Cigar for the fourth straight season, unless there is a magical shooting renaissance. I suppose it’s plausible that Nuñez could find the Midas touch from three and suddenly becomes a deadly shooter you can’t leave on the bench no matter how bad the defense is, but I give that scenario an 8% probability of occurring.

 

We've mostly seen Jace with a hoodie on thus far [Campredon]

Jace Howard

Year: Sophomore

Height/Weight: 6’7/225

Key Counting Stats: 3.1 MPG, 1.1 PPG, 0.4 RPG, .429/.500/.500

Key Advanced Stats: 24.6% usage, 79.7 ORtg, 14.2 OR%, 24.0 DR%

The coach’s son played in the same garbage time units as Nuñez last season, and that’s all that we really know about him at the NCAA level. In re-watching the highlights of every Michigan game from last season in preparation to write this season preview, I found two Jace highlights worth clipping:

Both were groovy drives to the paint that ended in points for Michigan, and that’s probably what you remember most about Jace Howard, the freshman. Outside of those “oh, that’s neat” garbage time buckets, there was nothing else there to file away. It’s unclear to me if we’ll get more than a few more of those types of memories from Jace this year, either.

If Jace’s last name was “Jones” and his father was not the head basketball coach at the University of Michigan, he was likely headed to the mid-major level as a three-star prospect just inside the top 400 on the 247 composite. He had offers from Saint Louis (A-10), NIU (MAC), Cleveland State (Horizon), and Brown (Ivy), so unlike brother Jett, who recently committed, Jace did not have B1G-caliber player written all over him as a prospect, and in bringing him in, Michigan knew that Howard was a “maybe in a few seasons” type of prospect. 2021-22 probably is still too soon to qualify as “in a few seasons”.

Matt wrote the following in Jace’s Hello post:

“The younger Howard isn’t likely to be a star at Michigan, but he may very well end up being a guy you want on the court during close games in conference as an upperclassmen. He’s best suited for a junkyard dog type role that gives you quality minutes in grind-out games where his effort level can help the team get defensive stops, garbage points, extra possessions and the occasional “I didn’t know he had that in his game” moment”

Based on what we’ve heard from the program about Jace (basically nothing), that kind of player may still be a year or two out, which is fine. Nothing wrong with waiting.

Role: Garbage time player who will likely see the floor with the likes of Brandon Wade, Ian Burns, and Jarron Faulds (Michigan’s non-scholarship players not mentioned in this preview). If Howard plays in any situations that are not garbage time, that will be something to note and could bode well for his future at Michigan.