It is time. (It is probably past time, to be honest.) Michigan hoops officially tips off in 12 days, and they haven't entered a season with more questions surrounding the program since early in John Beilein's tenure. In a Big Ten with one sure bet and a lot of uncertainty after that, Juwan Howard has a chance to make a big splash in his first year.

To start this year's hoops preview, I've separated out the conference into tiers. The general rule with tier rankings: the tiers matter more than where teams land within the tiers. Today's post covers the top half of the conference, which conveniently contains the seven teams I believe will make the NCAA tournament.

Tier I: The (Sigh) Preseason Number One

1. Michigan State

Coach: Tom Izzo (24th season at MSU)
2018-19 record: 32-7 (16-4 B1G), 3-0 vs. Michigan
Key returners: PG Cassius Winston, G Josh Langford (inj.), F Aaron Henry, C Xavier Tillman
Key departures: C Nick Ward, F Kenny Goins, G Matt McQuaid
Top newcomer: G Rocket Watts

Bah.

The Spartans are considered this year's #1 team by humans and computers alike. Point guard Cassius Winston, who had the upper hand last year after previously struggling in his personal rivalry with Zavier Simpson, is a consensus preseason All-American and a near-lock to repeat as conference player of the year. While lacking the athleticism to be a high-level NBA prospect, he's almost everything you'd want in a college point guard—an efficient, high-volume distributor with scoring chops both inside and outside the arc, largely due to his acumen at manipulating the pick-and-roll. His shooting chart shows little weakness, especially when considering only 35% of his baskets were assisted:

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While State loses some key pieces from last year's Big Ten champs, there's a lot of talent waiting to emerge. Center Xavier Tillman took Nick Ward's job and developed into a force late in the year. Tillman's mobility, strength, and skill on both ends made him an instant upgrade on Ward; he provided more options in the pick-and-roll and allowed State to switch on defense, something they had to avoid with the plodding Ward at center. Ward saw the writing on the wall and went pro in the offseason, clearing the decks for Tillman to have a full-blown breakout season.

Talented and enigmatic guard Josh Langford is sidelined indefinitely with a foot injury, but that provides the opportunity for touted freshman Rocket Watts, a 6'2" combo guard, to get major early minutes, and the talented scorer may not relinquish a starting spot once he has it. Aaron Henry is a long, athletic, developing role player with a potential NBA future; the same may be said about Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham soon. Kyle Ahrens and Thomas Kithier provide depth, and Kithier may be talented enough to nab a starting spot.

There's too much experience and talent in place here to consider anyone else for the top spot in the conference, and arguably the country.

[Hit THE JUMP for happier things.]

Tier II: The Rising Reds

Jalen Smith (#25) is a five-star who stuck around for his sophomore year. [Paul Sherman]

2. Maryland

Coach: Mark Turgeon (ninth year)
2018-19 record: 23-11 (13-7 B1G), 0-2 vs. Michigan
Key returners: PG Anthony Cowan, G Darryl Morsell, G Eric Ayala, F Aaron Wiggins, F/C Jalen Smith
Key departures: C Bruno Fernando
Top newcomer: C Makhi Mitchell

Mark Turgeon continues to build a talented, sound roster at Maryland, which has now made the NCAA tournament four of the last five years under his watch. An NBA big man leaves in Bruno Fernando; a five-star big man begins his sophomore year in Jalen Smith; a blue-chip big man enters the program in Makhi Mitchell. The formula is working for them.

Losing Fernando hurts, but the Terps bring back every other major contributor, and they should get a lot of growth from a sophomore class headlined by Smith and also featuring wings Darryl Morsell, Eric Ayala, and Aaron Wiggins, who all played well in major roles last year. Add in a solid senior point guard in Anthony Cowan and an infusion of more freshman talent and you've got perhaps the most complete team in the conference outside of East Lansing.

There's some Ewing Theory potential with this team. While Fernando was an interior force, the fit with 6'10" Smith mostly at power forward proved awkward at times and also limited minutes for the talented young wings, especially Wiggins, a 41% three-point shooter. Having a senior point guard to pair with their potential first-round big man puts them just above the next team on the list for me.

3. Ohio State

Coach: Chris Holtmann (third season)
2018-19 record: 20-15 (8-12 B1G), 0-1 vs. Michigan
Key returners: G Luther Muhammad, G Duane Washington, F Musa Jallow, F Kyle Young, F Andre Wesson, C Kaleb Wesson
Key departures: PG CJ Jackson, G Keyshawn Woods
Top newcomer: PG DJ Carton

The Buckeyes also bring back nearly every major contributor, and given how inconsistent CJ Jackson played at point guard, they're likely in for an upgrade at the position—top-50 freshman DJ Carton, who Beilein went after hard, is expected to start right away, and Florida State transfer CJ Walker should at least keep the floor at "no worse than CJ Jackson."

The star will remain big man Kaleb Wesson, whose 6'9", 270-pound frame belies his skill; he's a strong post player, a very willing passer, and he expanded his range beyond the three-point arc last season. If he keeps his turnovers down, which isn't a given, he's got a good shot to be first-team all-conference despite not being a major defensive presence. Wesson is becoming an analytics geek's dream—pretty much all his shots last year came at the rim or from beyond the arc:

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Chris Holtmann seems to get more from his teams than the sum of their parts, and this team has plenty of interesting parts. Duane Washington has gunner potential if he can rein it in a bit; Luther Muhammad is a bulldog; Kyle Young has been a very efficient garbageman when healthy; Kaleb's brother Andre Wesson is a senior glue guy with skill. There's a wide range of potential outcomes for this team—that'll become a trend—but I like Holtmann's chances of getting them towards the top end of that range.

Tier III: My Favorite Non-Rivalry Isn't Dead

The Painter/Beilein War is over, let the Painter/Howard battles begin. [Campredon]

4. Purdue

Coach: Matt Painter (15th year)
2018-19 record: 26-10 (16-4 B1G), 0-1 vs. Michigan
Key returners: G Nojel Eastern, F Aaron Wheeler, C Matt Haarms, F/C Trevion Williams
Key departures: PG Carsen Edwards, G Ryan Kline, F Grady Eifert
Top newcomer: G Jahaad Proctor (High Point transfer)

This is where human predictions start to detach from the computers. Purdue is the preseason #7 team to both KenPom's and Bart Torvik's algorithms. They both project the Boilermakers to have a top-ten offense.

Meanwhile, Purdue loses Carsen Edwards, last seen willing this team to the Elite Eight by averaging 35 points per game in the tourney, unless you also watched him put on long-distance fireworks shows for the Boston Celtics in summer league and the preseason. Matt Painter hopes to replace some of Edwards's scoring punch with High Point transfer Jahaad Proctor; he's a similar player but it's very difficult to see him bending defenses like Edwards.

That's problematic for a team that also lost two of their best outside shooters, Ryan Kline and Grady Eifert. Purdue has two excellent post options in giant Dutchman Matt Haarms and sophomore breakout candidate Trevion Williams, but those two need space to operate. Hybrid point guard/wing Nojel Eastern is a superlative defender who can make plays in the paint, but he's got one of the funkiest shots in the country (57% career FT shooter) and doesn't even attempt three-pointers (0-4 last year).

Sophomore Sasha Stefanovic, a 41% Just A Shooter™, can step into Cline's role as an extreme three-point gunner, but unless Haarms can stretch out his range a few more feet, I'm skeptical this offense can come close to last year's output. That said, defense should be a strength, and Painter is an excellent coach—there's little doubt he'll find a way to at least squeeze 20 wins out of his squad.

5. Michigan

Coach: Juwan Howard (first year)
2018-19 record: 30-7 (15-5 B1G)
Key returners: PG Zavier Simpson, F Isaiah Livers, C Jon Teske
Key departures: G Jordan Poole, F Charles Matthews, F Iggy Brazdeikis
Top newcomer: G Franz Wagner

Ultimately, Painter's coaching experience over Howard and similar concerns about Michigan's shooting tipped the scales in Purdue's favor, but if a couple youngsters emerge for the Wolverines that could change in a hurry. Unfortunately, Franz Wagner's injury could hamper the team's ability to gel before Big Ten play, and I don't want to totally ignore the significant gap in computer projections between the two teams.

I'll have a whole lot more on Michigan before the season tips off.

Tier IV: Trains Passing

97% chance Brad Davison is bracing for a flop here. [Campredon] 

6. Illinois

Coach: Brad Underwood (third year)
2018-19 record: 12-21 (7-13 B1G), 0-1 vs. Michigan
Key returners: PG Trent Frazier, G Ayo Dosunmu, G Andres Feliz, F Kipper Nichols, C Georgi Bezhanishvili
Key departures: F Aaron Jordan, C Adonis De La Rosa
Top newcomer: C Kofi Cockburn

The choice here is between two programs that may be headed in opposite directions. You may be surprised to see the Illini here after Brad Underwood's tenure got off to a rocky start, going 14-18 in year one before a 4-12 (0-5 Big Ten) start to last season set off alarm bells. The defense was mostly nonexistent; more alarming, the offense was scuffling in Underwood's previously high-octane system—you may remember him as Oklahoma State's coach from the batshit 2017 NCAA tournament game against Michigan.

Illinois pulled it together, going a respectable 8-9 down the stretch that included upsets of MSU and OSU. They got the news they needed in the offseason when guard/roadrunner Ayo Dosunmu passed up a chance at the NBA for at least one more year; he's a force in transition, which is how Underwood likes to play, and he's got the skillset to develop into a dangerous three-level scorer in the halfcourt as well. He shares lead guard duties with backcourt mate Trent Frazier, a 40% three-point shooter who could be a star if he finishes off more of his drives.

Sophomore Georgi Bezhanishvili proved to be a crafty post scorer and impact offensive rebounder in his debut season. He needs to cut down on turnovers and lacks the athleticism to be a great defender, but both of those areas should improve with experience, and he's already proven he can shoulder a relatively large offensive load.

This could be the year things start to click in Champaign, and the middle of the Big Ten looks wide open for an up-and-coming team to make a run at a double-bye. They'll provide a much different look than most teams in the conference; this looks like the season that starts to become an advantage.

7. Wisconsin

Coach: Greg Gard (fifth year)
2018-19 record: 23-11 (14-6 B1G), 1-1 vs. Michigan
Key returners: PG D'Mitrik Trice, G Brevin Pritzl, G Brad Davison, F Aleem Ford, F Kobe King, C Nate Reuvers
Key departures: C/PG Ethan Happ, F Khalil Iverson
Top newcomer: F Micah Potter (Ohio State transfer)

This is Wisconsin. Even when they lose their main guy, you'd expect them to project higher than this. Program of the Bug People and whatnot.

I'm deeply skeptical. Greg Gard hasn't coached a Badgers squad without Ethan Happ at center, and even when Happ was a freshman, the offense was largely running through him—by last year, Happ took on a level of usage normally reserved for do-everything point guards. He made Wisconsin a unique and difficult team to prepare to face; in addition to being able to run an entire offense out of the post, he was a disruptive and steady defender.

Here are two shot charts. On the left/top are Wisconsin's shots (with Happ's removed) that were derived from post-ups—plays on which Happ was mostly responsible for distributing the ball. On the right/bottom are Wisconsin's shots (Happ's again removed) derived from isolation and pick-and-roll—there's still some of Happ distributing the ball in here, to be sure, but not as much.

Not only did Happ open up the perimeter, he made it easier for his teammates to find space to score in the lane. That 38.6% shooting around the rim in the chart on the right is woeful; it indicates Wisconsin really lacks players who can create their own shot and finish.

Center Nate Reuvers is a good big man in his own right, and he provides a level of shooting that Happ didn't, but he's not going to turn into a point-center. Perhaps noted pest Brad Davison becomes a much better finisher with two intact shoulders; it's also fair to wonder if his shoulder issues will ever truly go away given how often he hits the deck. D'Mitrik Trice gives Wisconsin a solid outside shooter who can make some off the bounce, but he's also never been a guy who can score efficiently inside the arc, and as the nominal point guard he's going to have to improve his passing, as well.

The Badgers hope to get a boost on the interior from Ohio State transfer Micah Potter, whose timing is in limbo—he hoped to be declared immediately eligible but, pending appeal, the NCAA isn't letting him play before sitting a semester, which would keep him out until late December.

Ultimately, I think Wisconsin can grind out enough wins to make the NCAA tournament, but I suspect it'll be even less pretty than the usual, which is a frightening notion indeed.