One important reason Harbaugh might leave Stanford

Submitted by Don on

Nobody on the internet really knows whether or not Jim Harbaugh is truly interested in leaving Stanford, and nobody close to Harbaugh is talking. However, there is one potentially huge inducement (aside from a new $50,000 crapper in Schembechler Hall) for JH to leave Palo Alto and come back east: the absolutely miserable attendance at Stanford games.

"A nationally-ranked football team with a star quarterback, well-known coach and gorgeous stadium would translate to sellout crowds on most college campuses.

But not at Stanford, where thousands of seats sit empty on any given Saturday. The small crowds are an object of derision for opponents and a source of frustration for school officials, including football coach Jim Harbaugh. The situation has left others baffled.

"Their head coach is a force of nature. Their quarterback is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Their team is one of the best in the country, and they have 6.5 million people living here," said Andy Dolich, who has worked as an executive for the A's, Warriors and 49ers. "They've got everything going for them."

But the empty seats -- in 50,000-seat Stanford Stadium, more than 10,000 regularly go unfilled -- are no longer just a head-scratcher. They could cost the football team a berth in a major bowl game."

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_16712437?IADID=Search-www.mercurynews.com…

M-Wolverine

December 4th, 2010 at 2:06 PM ^

Only Saban and Carroll went back to immediately coach big time/big money programs. Saban had already won a National Title. And one could question how "big time" USC was at the time they finally picked Carroll (which wasn't thought of particularly highly at the time).

yahwrite

December 4th, 2010 at 9:17 AM ^

Sorry, these are from various sources and I'm not 100% sure of accuracy or if it's apples to apples, but I just wanted get an idea. Please correct me if you have better info.

I think Harbaugh makes $1.25 million at Stanford

RR gets $2.5 million at U-M

John Harbaugh $3.0 million with Baltimore Ravens

Bill Belicheck $7.5 million with New England

Pete Carroll $7.0 million with Seattle

blueheron

December 4th, 2010 at 8:51 AM ^

I think culture matters, too.  How else would you explain attendance at places like Clemson, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Mississippi State?  I'm pretty sure their places get packed on Saturdays even when they're not winning.  With the possible exception of Clemson (and maybe Mississippi if you want to go back to when Minnesota was still nationally relevant), there's not much "tradition" at any school.

markusr2007

December 4th, 2010 at 8:54 AM ^

Stanford fans don't seem to travel very well either.  Must be discouraging for Harbaugh after you finally put the most powerful Stanford team on the field since the Don Bunce/Jim Plunkett days.  Where's the gratitude, Stanford fans? <crickets>

Winged Helmet Fan

December 4th, 2010 at 10:02 AM ^

Or race or watch motocross at Glen Helen. California has so much nice weather, they know us Midwesterners are football junkies because that's one of the few gigs we have going on in the Fall.

Dreisbach1817

December 4th, 2010 at 10:07 AM ^

Another reason why he leaves... Andrew Luck is leaving.

No question Harbaugh can coach QBs.  But he did get a bit "Luck-y" to get this kind of talent.  Even the best coach doesn't always get the consensus #1 pick.  And for Stanford to land him 3 years ago is even more fortunate.  Again, Harbaugh definitely had a lot to do with his development.  But #1 overall pick requires much raw talent which Stanford should not have gotten 3 years ago (now, maybe yes).

And of course Luck is leaving.  The team won't be as good as it is now, of course.  Harbaugh is at his marketable peak.  Time to cash in.

M-Wolverine

December 4th, 2010 at 12:46 PM ^

No more than saying the only reason anyone wants to keep Rich is because Denard is around, and he was lucky to get him. But I saw Denard last year, and the coaches did a lot to make him a QB. Likewise, I don't remember anyone saying Stanford had gotten a future NFL #1 pick when they recruited Luck. Both players have done better than their rankings. But that should be to their coaches credit. If nothing else, talent assessment.

Pea-Tear Gryphon

December 4th, 2010 at 10:21 AM ^

You're the next coach at the University of Michigan.

"You want the players to have it all," he said. "They have most all of it here at Stanford. You talk about academics, you talk about the athletic department, etc. You want to see them have big crowds too. Hopefully we're moving in that direction."

Why settle for most, when you can have it all? Academics? Check. I know what he said before, but he was just appeasing his base at Stanford and bragging up their strengths while also covering his ass a little in why they might not get top tier recruits. Athletic Department? Check. Dave Brandon and the moves he's making, plus the history and success of our other programs puts us in the elite. Big Crowds? Check. He know's this first hand. Hopefully, he'll be moving in an easterly direction shortly after Stanford wins their bowl game.

SalvatoreQuattro

December 4th, 2010 at 10:31 AM ^

Does any school out there sell out on a regular basis? He'll, SC struggled to sell out during their run. They covered empty seats in the Coliseum with banner- jerseys.
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<br>It is a cultural difference. Cali and southern Florida just do not get into sports like the rest of the country does.
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<br>People like to chalk it up to weather, but there are plenty of activities to do here in Fall and Winter. Fishing, hunting, skiing, snowboarding, sledding, building snowmen, snow mobiling, and then there are the cultural opportunities.
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<br>People in the Midwest and South like football because it is a sport that glorifies physical labor and hard work-- two traits that are integral to the respective characters of the people who live in those regions.
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<br>I do not think such a mentality finds much sympathy in California and Southern Florida because those areas seem to be all about relaxing and taking it easy.
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Beavis

December 4th, 2010 at 10:31 AM ^

Stop with this fucking shit. Go away Harbaugh, half the fan base DOES NOT want you at Michigan and would be rabid if RR is terminated.

Don

December 4th, 2010 at 10:44 AM ^

I'm a RR supporter and believe he deserves another year, at least. I've also been highly critical of JH for the comments he made about the academics at UM for players. However, I think you're completely wrong if you truly believe that half the fan base doesn't want JH and would be rabid if RR were let go. In fact, I would bet a good chunk of change that if you could poll the entirety of the fan base—alums, former players, donors, non-alum fans, and anybody else who more than casually roots for Michigan—at least 80% would welcome a change. That doesn't mean they're right, or that a change is fair to RR, but I think you overestimate the support for RR.

bighouseinmate

December 4th, 2010 at 10:55 AM ^

One thing about RR supporters is that although they are very persistent in the defense of RR getting at least another year, most of them, I believe, would back Harbaugh if a change is made.

I have made several posts against terminating RR in favor of Harbaugh, but I would support him if the change was made. I just think that it is a stupid move to make when UM football seems to be on the verge of greatness.

Pea-Tear Gryphon

December 4th, 2010 at 10:58 AM ^

Don - I was going to reply to the above posters comments about "half the fans and rabid, etc, etc.", but I'm glad I didn't. You totally nailed it and in a way that is sometimes lacking here. I like your style and knowledge of the program, but most of all your level head. While I do not agree with what you say all the time, I have no complaints with the way you make your arguments. +1.

Njia

December 4th, 2010 at 11:09 AM ^

What has been done to Rich Rod since he got here - even before he arrived, really - is appalling. One could argue that he brought some of it on himself, but the abuse he has taken at the hands of people who claim to cheer for Michigan is abhorrent. You cannot be "all in" for Michigan if you wish the coach would just go away (or even get hit by a bus) already.

Having made that point, though, I think you are essentially correct. Maybe we all just need a change. IF it happens, my earnest wish is for Dave Brandon to revoke the media credentials of piss ants like Terry Foster, Michael Rosenberg, et al, and hold any future consideration of their return in abeyance unless and until they and their media bosses apologize for their actions and behavior toward Rich Rodriguez and the University of Michigan. There is no excuse for what they have either done or said, and any statements they make to the contrary can be shoved down their g-ddamned throats.

But I don't mean that in a bad way.

NathanFromMCounty

December 4th, 2010 at 12:16 PM ^

Rosenberg I agree with (though I never lost respect for him...because I never had it in the first place) but I don't think Terry Foster has necessarily been out of bounds.  He's been highly critical but I don't recall reading anything by him that crossed the line into Rosenberg territory.

BlueTimesTwo

December 4th, 2010 at 6:10 PM ^

That is what is so sad.  If a change is made, it will be just as much about the noise from outside the program and the naysayers in the media as it will be about progress within the program.  The program is being governed by the heckler's veto - the loudest and most ignorant will be the ones who will dictate what happens with our team.

mackbru

December 4th, 2010 at 1:46 PM ^

I disagree. I think this site, while fantastic in many ways, is also something of an echo-chamber that repeats an opinion that is not shared by the big, wide world. All polling outside of MGB indicates that fans in general overwhelmingly want RR gone.

Harbaugh would immediately be popular. That's partly because the new guy is always popular and partly because it's Captain Comeback. How many people (fans, media) outside of here do you hear rallying on RR's behalf?

There will be no rebellion. At all. There will be celebration. Except here.

aaamichfan

December 4th, 2010 at 5:31 PM ^

All polling outside of MGB indicates that fans in general overwhelmingly want RR gone.

Please come forward with your polling data.

Remember: You hear more of the opinions that are displayed loudly. I agree that the "Fire RR" crowd is louder and more stalwart in their opposition, but that doesn't mean those people outnumber the "give it another year" crowd.

SmithersJoe

December 4th, 2010 at 10:34 AM ^

Stanford has between 6000-7000 undergraduate students in any given year.  That suggests around 1500-2000 new alumni every year.

Stanford needs ~30 years worth of alumni to fill 50,000 seats.

Stanford's winning percentage over the past 30 years: 0.458, with 8 bowl games (+1 pending), and 1 appearance in the Rose Bowl.  Note that this 30 year record includes coaching stints by Jack Elway (0.455), Denny Green (0.451), and Bill Walsh (0.486).  Jim Harbaugh's current winning %, of course, is 0.571.

Stanford's overall winning percentage over the 119 years of its (football) existence: 0.568.

source

Michigan has between 26,000-27,000 undergraduate students in any given year.  That suggests around 6000-7000 new alumni every year.

Michigan needs ~15 years worth of alumni to fill 100,000 seats. 

Michigan's winning percentage over the past 15 years: 0.692, with 12 bowl games (+1 pending), 4 appearances in the Rose Bowl, and 1 national championship.  Only 2 coaches have served in that time, Lloyd Carr (0.758 excluding his first year, which was 16 years ago) and Rich Rodriguez, 0.417.

Michigan's overall winning percentage over the 131 years of its (football) existence: 0.720

source

I point all of this out to say that it should be obvious why Michigan can fill a 100,000 seat stadium, and Stanford cannot fill a 50,000 seat stadium.  It's purely about population demographics and really has nothing to do with the current quality of either program.

SalvatoreQuattro

December 4th, 2010 at 11:20 AM ^

of Wal Mart Wolverines so number of alumni is really irrelevant here. I am willing to bet that at least 25% of UM's home crowd did not attend the university.
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<br>Stanford has a minuscule non- affiliated fan base, so that plays a factor as well.
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<br>Alot of alums at alot of schools simply do not care about football, so using number of alumni can be problematic.

SmithersJoe

December 4th, 2010 at 12:12 PM ^

I am willing to bet that at least 25% of UM's home crowd did not attend the university.

If all of the undergraduate students at Michigan attended a football game, it would fill ~1/4 of the 100,000 seat stadium.

Michigan's population is ~10 million.

There are 2 teams in Michigan from Division 1A AQS FBS schools: University of Michigan and Michigan State.  There are 3 other Division 1A FBS schools in Michigan: Eastern, Central, and Western Michigan.  There are 0 Division 1AA schools in Michigan.

If all of the undergraduate students at Stanford attended a football game, it would fill ~1/8 of the 50,000 seat stadium.

California's population is ~ 37 million.

There are 4 teams in California from Division 1A AQS FBS schools: Stanford, Cal (Berkeley), UCLA, and USC.  There are 3 other Division 1A FBS schools in California: CSU Fresno (21,000 undergraduates), San Diego State (32,000 undergraduates), and San Jose State (27,000 undergraduates).  There are 4 Division 1AA schools in California: Cal Poly (20,000 undergraduates), Sacramento State (28,000 undergraduates), San Diego (5000 undergraduates), and UC Davis (26,000 undergraduates).

I say this to point out that although California's population is larger than Michigan, and that presumably means a larger population of football fans, that population is divided among many more schools and teams, many of which are much larger than Stanford.  This is still an issue of population demographics, plain and simple.

population sources ... Div 1A schools ... Div 1AA schools ... undergraduate students

Don

December 4th, 2010 at 10:36 AM ^

Anybody with Harbaugh's ego would probably regard a partially empty stadium as an insult, especially given the success of his team. I doubt Harbaugh would be alone in that regard. Whether he's coaching a peewee team or Michigan, a coach is going to be disappointed if the crowd is small.

It's one thing to not sell out a stadium with 100,000+ seats; Michigan didn't start its string of consecutive crowds over 100K until 1975, Bo's seventh season. It's another thing entirely to not even be able to fill a stadium half that size. That's just amazing to me. Say what you will about the nature of our crowds, nobody connected to the program—DB, the players, or RR—can honestly complain about our attendance, IMHO.

ATLWolverine

December 4th, 2010 at 12:04 PM ^

as it is a proxy for the larger problem: Tippy-top level football is extremely difficult sustain at Stanford , because even if everything goes right, the attendance and culture just aren't there to sustain taking a team to the promised land consistently.

Bowls will pass them over for bad travelling, home crowd advantage is muted, etc. etc.

mackbru

December 4th, 2010 at 2:05 PM ^

I think you raise an important point. So thank you for that.

My question -- and I'm being quite since here -- is about the degree to which the board values quality discourse. Obviously, there are many people here who do. But there are so many who neg to death posters whose opinions they don't happen to share -- most notably, posters who question or criticize RR. They'll say, "I wasn't negging the opinion. I was negging your lack of evidence, logic, whatever." 

Bullshit. Whenever I see criticism here, I see neg votes, no matter how mild or reasoned the criticism. It's kind of an unwelcoming arena for dissenters. Too many reactionary neg-votes. Too many people who equate dissent with disloyalty. 

Again, I love this place. But sometimes it really starts to feel a bit like an echo-chamber. I'm certain that any analysis of neg-voting would indicating a huge tilt against dissenters. How to keep this place from becoming high school? Your thoughts?

Meantime, here come the negs. Thanks.

Don

December 4th, 2010 at 2:38 PM ^

Let's do a test. Although I'm a RR supporter, these are things I believe, and have stated at various times here on MGoBlog:

Rich Rodriguez has royally fucked up his selection of defensive coordinators. In fact, I think the selection of Greg Robinson is the single worst choice at the coordinator level on either side of the ball at any BCS school in the last decade. I think it was not prudent to recruit Demar Dorsey. I am, so far, disappointed in the relative lack of offensive plays incorporating overt misdirection. The coaching staff has to take responsibility for getting competent place kickers. I think it would have benefited RR greatly from a PR standpoint to swiftly dissociate himself from the popular belief that "Carr left the cupboard bare," even if there is some evidence that was in fact the case. I think at times RR has let his anger get the better of himself on the sidelines.

Not that I give a crap, but I'm curious how many negs I get.

Raoul

December 4th, 2010 at 3:17 PM ^

C'mon, Don. This is hardly a fair test. People are going to vote differently knowing this is a test.

A much fairer test would be to make up two new usernames. Post comments under both names on the same thread, one saying positive things about Rodriguez and one negative. I would bet anything that the former would either get a few positive votes or no votes at all while the latter would get negged heavily.

This is a strongly pro-Rodriguez site, and the voting reflects that. You've been around here long enough to know that this is the case and that many critics of Rodriguez were purged from here long ago. Mackbru is spot on when he says this is "an unwelcoming arena for dissenters."

909Dewey

December 4th, 2010 at 12:17 PM ^

Do you think this will affect Brandon's end of year review regarding the state of the program?  Even to the degree of impacting Rich Rod's job security?