SmithersJoe

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Date	Title	Body
2 years 17 weeks ago	Brady Hoke with Ball State historical context	Didn't take the time to go through the entire history of Ball State football, but since 1971: 19 seasons in which Ball State was outscored by its opponents: 1971 (McClain) 1981-1984 (Wallace) 1985-1987, 1992, 1994 (Schudel) 1997-2002 (Lynch) 2003-2005 (Hoke) 10 point losses: Coach 10 pt losses 10 pt losses / season Dave McClain 8 1.14 Dwight Wallace 28 4 Paul Schudel 25 2.5 Bill Lynch 40 5 Brady Hoke 27 4.5 Seasons with four or more 10 point losses:   Season 10 pt losses Coach 1981 5 Dwight Wallace 1982 6 Dwight Wallace 1983 5 Dwight Wallace 1984 6 Dwight Wallace 1985 5 Paul Schudel 1987 4 Paul Schudel 1997 4 Bill Lynch 1998 8 Bill Lynch 1999 10 Bill Lynch 2000 6 Bill Lynch 2002 6 Bill Lynch 2003 7 Brady Hoke 2004 5 Brady Hoke 2005 5 Brady Hoke 2006 4 Brady Hoke 2007 4 Brady Hoke
2 years 17 weeks ago	Brady Hoke with San Diego State context	Didn't take the time to go through the entire history of San Diego State football, but since 1973: 20 seasons in which San Diego State was outscored by its opponents: 1978, 1980 (Gilbert) 1982-1983 (Scovil) 1987-1988 (Stolz) 1989, 1992 (Luginbill) 1994, 1997-1998, 2000-2001 (Tollner) 2002, 2004-2005 (Craft) 2006-2008 (Long) 2009 (Hoke) 10 point losses: Coach 10 pt losses 10 pt losses / season Claude Gilbert 13 1.625 Doug Scovil 21 4.2 Denny Stolz 12 4 Al Luginbill 15 3 Ted Tollner 31 3.875 Tom Craft 20 5 Chuck Long 21 7 Brady Hoke 6 3 Seasons with four or more 10 point losses: Season 10 pt losses Coach 1980 7 Claude Gilbert 1982 4 Doug Scovil 1983 6 Doug Scovil 1985 5 Doug Scovil 1987 4 Denny Stolz 1988 6 Denny Stolz 1997 5 Ted Tollner 1998 4 Ted Tollner 2000 6 Ted Tollner 2001 7 Ted Tollner 2002 6 Tom Craft 2003 4 Tom Craft 2004 5 Tom Craft 2005 5 Tom Craft 2006 7 Chuck Long 2007 7 Chuck Long 2008 7 Chuck Long 2009 6 Brady Hoke
2 years 17 weeks ago	San Diego State chart by year	San Diego State chart by year through 2010 (Brady Hoke started in 2009) San Diego State chart by coach
2 years 17 weeks ago	Stanford chart by year	Stanford chart by year (Jim Harbaugh started in 2007) Stanford chart by coach (includes 2 stints by Bill Walsh 77-78, 92-94)
2 years 17 weeks ago	Ball State chart by year	Ball State chart by year through 2008 (Brady Hoke started in 2003) Ball State chart by coach
2 years 17 weeks ago	Fair criticism, human nature	That's a fair criticism, particularly with respect to anyone who was actively trying to undermine RR. On the flip side, I do believe it's human nature to actively support people that you have a personal connection with, especially in light of the apparent need to show support and solidarity given the fractures in the fan base and the loss of the "Great Unifying Coaching Candidate" (hereinafter referred to as GUCC) to the 49ers. Not everyone showing active support for BH now was previously actively undermining RR. And it is human nature for some people to be silent and sit on the sidelines for someone they don't really know personally. There are some who may be guilty of doing bad things to get what they want in terms of this coaching change. But there are also some who are genuinely happy, with "good" motivations and "right" reasons, that BH is the coach at Michigan.
2 years 17 weeks ago	PR for Rodriguez v. Hoke	I've seen several posts now pointing to the different treatment of Rodriguez v. Hoke by the press and also in terms of the PR effort put forth by the Michigan athletic department. I also saw earlier the article that Section 1 cites now. I understand that there's an element of "not one of us" v. "one of us" going on here in terms of the different treatment. But I also wonder if part of the difference, particularly in terms of the PR effort by the Michigan athletic department, is precisely due to what happened to Rodriguez. Even DB has stated the need for unity this time in contrast with what has happened in the past, so it makes sense to me that the athletic department would be putting significantly more effort into shaping media and fan perceptions this time around. If anything, that's an indictment of BM and his failure to recognize the need for an aggressive PR campaign on behalf of Rodriguez, given his lack of historical, institutional ties.
2 years 18 weeks ago	December survey is different	Just wanted to say - be careful comparing these results to the December survey. It's two different populations (December survey was randomly-selected voters, self-identified Michigan fans v. self-selected MGoBlog users now). You may not be seeing shifts in opinion as much as you are differences in populations. Edit: And not to be negative, great post! Thanks for doing this.
2 years 18 weeks ago	private or public sector?	@OP: Do you work in the private or the public sector? We shouldn't underestimate the political influences at play in the public sector (which is essentially every D-1 athletic dept with alums, boosters, presidents, etc., even if the college itself is private). It's entirely possible that there were political forces in play that required RR's termination even without a replacement on board. I would also point to other football coaching changes, and suggest that your principle is the exception rather than the rule.
2 years 18 weeks ago	Sounds like Miami, Oakland,	Sounds like Miami, Oakland, and Denver provided all the leverage needed. Schefter suggested Harbaugh turned down Miami's offer because it wasn't all about the money.
2 years 18 weeks ago	Impressive to Stanford...	Impressive to Stanford...
2 years 19 weeks ago	Interesting contrast between	Interesting contrast between Singletary and Harbaugh by Mike Lombardi, former candidate for 49ers GM position: nfl.com
2 years 19 weeks ago	I think there's some truth to	I think there's some truth to both perspectives. Yes, donations have continued to increase. But yes, it's possible that major donors were threatening to withhold future donations. At the same time, yes, just having lots of money doesn't make you a better person. But yes, making a lot of money suggests an ability to be successful in some sense. How do we feel about Stephen Ross going after JH for the Miami Dolphins?
2 years 19 weeks ago	Nah, pretty sure dirt was	Nah, pretty sure dirt was around before 1964.
2 years 19 weeks ago	I know the feelings about the	I know the feelings about the media (ESPECIALLY after that Tuesday debacle!), but I honestly don't think DB was afraid of offending the media in deciding to fire RR. I'm not even sure the input of influential alumni was decisive. I do think he made an evaluation and didn't like what he saw. People can disagree with his evaluation, but I don't think it was a lack of courage that led to this decision.
2 years 19 weeks ago	Oh that game   John	Oh that game   John David Booty broke his hand (he would miss the next few games) but was not taken out of the game and continued to throw the football.  He threw 4 second half interceptions with the busted hand and essentially handed (fantastic pun intended) the game to Stanford. And Stanford was apparently playing a redshirt sophomore backup quarterback who had only 3 passes in his career. And USC surrendered 4 sacks, more than they had all season, and only had 95 yards rushing. (source) Please - stop trying to compare Michigan and Stanford - you are only making it worse for RR. As I mentioned above, is it really fair or reasonable to expect that Michigan would go 12-1 next year with a blowout BCS bowl win? That's the bar you're setting by continuing to make this comparison.
2 years 19 weeks ago	Similar, but not the same	I think it's reasonable to draw some similarities between the first 3 years of JH's tenure at Stanford, and the first 3 years of RR's tenure at Michigan. However, I think it's also important to recognize the differences, especially in the 3rd year and especially considering the context of both programs. Certainly, the general atmosphere and fan expectations are very different at Stanford than at Michigan, and that made it easier for Stanford's AD to keep JH around. And 8-5 was the best record Stanford had since 2001. Nevertheless, it's hard to say that Michigan in 2010 is the same as Stanford in 2009, and I believe it's even harder to argue that Michigan under RR in 2011 will be like Stanford in 2010. Do you honestly expect 12-1 and a blowout win in a BCS bowl next year, with your only loss coming to a non-rival team playing for the national championship? The more people compare JH to RR, the more you cement this year's Stanford team as the benchmark for RR next year. I don't believe that's fair or realistic to RR, so my suggestion is that we stop trying to suggest that Michigan under RR is just like Stanford under JH, "except for a 4th year."
2 years 19 weeks ago	While I disagree with broad	While I disagree with broad generalizations and stereotypes, there is some evidence (polling data) that there was a significant shift in support away from RR among Michigan fans 65+ this season (from 65% wanting him to continue in May, to only 18% in December). Interestingly, however, there was also a significant shift in support away from RR among African-American fans over that same time period (from 75% wanting him to continue in May, to only 40% in December). source
2 years 19 weeks ago	The 3rd year was key	Stanford defense 2007-2009 under JH: Points / game: 28.3, 27.4, 26.5 Yards / game: 435.42, 379.58, 402.69 Avg point differential: -8.7, -1.1, +9 Michigan defense 2008-2010 under RR: Points / game: 28.9, 27.5, 35.2 Yards / game: 366.92, 393.33, 450.77 Avg point differential: -8.6, +2, -2.4 The trends in the first two years are similar, but that third year really bottomed out for Michigan's defense, especially in scoring and point differential. Also, it's hard for Stanford fans to complain about 4-8, 5-7, 8-5 when their previous 5 years were 2-9, 4-7, 4-7, 5-6, 1-11.
2 years 19 weeks ago	4. Competitive context	MSU and OSU (and Wisconsin!) had 11-1 seasons, while the Big 10 went 2-5 (at the time) in bowl games. Iowa tanked to 8-5, MSU gets blown out in a bowl (neither team was really THAT strong) Notre Dame, under a first year coach, showed improvement over the course of the season and won their bowl game. NTMSU beat Michigan handily in the 2nd year of their coach's tenure. Stanford went 12-1 this year and won handily in their bowl game. Nebraska (member of Big 10 next year, and considered to be one of the stronger teams in the conference) loses to a mid-level Pac 10 Washington team (that got blown out by Stanford, btw). Even Stanford's bowl loss last year, in JH's 3rd year, was much more competitive (against Oklahoma) without Andrew Luck (didn't play due to injury). Heck, even Northwestern's bowl loss this year was more competitive without Dan Persa. What would the Gator Bowl have looked like without Denard? It's hard not to compare Michigan's situation under RR unfavorably to those competitive benchmarks. For a business mind like DB's, I have to think the competitive context played a significant role as well.
2 years 19 weeks ago	Agreed - it was hard, if not	Agreed - it was hard, if not impossible, for the team to recover the momentum after that 2nd quarter. But it still wasn't over at the half - they came out on D and made a big 3-and-out stop, but then the offense got bogged down, and the failed FG (!!!)... After so many 2nd half comebacks this year, even those that came up short, I thought this team would keep fighting to the final possession like they had most of the year. That didn't happen, and I believe that was the end of RR's opportunity to continue here.
2 years 19 weeks ago	Not sure I agree that JH is	Not sure I agree that JH is actively using Michigan as leverage. He could use the Raiders, the Panthers, and the Dolphins for that. Hot coaches have a high market value by definition.
2 years 19 weeks ago	The troubling detail about	The troubling detail about that report is that the supposed source of what JH wants was the Michigan athletic department? It makes more sense if it was the athletic department saying what it wants (ie, deciding not to pursue JH because of price, other concerns, whatever).
2 years 19 weeks ago	Well, he at least proved he	Well, he at least proved he could recruit a stud quarterback to a 1-11 team.
2 years 19 weeks ago	I realize there's a lot of	I realize there's a lot of emotional investment in JH right now, but think of him as an athlete who could choose to declare early for the draft. If he's projected to be a top pick and make a lot of money, are you going to begrudge him his decision to go pro? Football is too unpredictable. If he has this kind of opportunity, I say let him go and wish him well. If he were just another alum and not a candidate for a coaching gig here, I think most of us would be rooting for him to be successful.
2 years 19 weeks ago	It's possible the 49er job	It's possible the 49er job opens up now precisely because of the opportunity to grab JH, and the concern that he would go to Michigan. Not good to be competing with NFL owners for a head coach.
2 years 19 weeks ago	Not sure I agree. JH's market	Not sure I agree. JH's market value may have changed (possibly because of Michigan alum Stephen Ross) between the verbal and now. What if a junior player states his intention to finish his degree, but then over the course of the season becomes projected as a top 5 pick in the draft? Can you really blame him for going pro?
2 years 19 weeks ago	If JH had led DB to believe	If JH had led DB to believe he would come, then some of the fault would have to lay on him. On the other hand, when billionaires are throwing money at you to come coach their NFL franchises, it's hard to complain about his decision-making. Sort of like Stanford fans complaining if/when Andrew Luck decides to declare for the NFL draft. Can you really blame him?
2 years 19 weeks ago	If that were the real reason	If that were the real reason for the delay, don't you think DB would have mentioned it (wink, wink)? Why take all the criticism and pressure if the delay is just a formality?
2 years 19 weeks ago	Yeah, I wondered about that	Yeah, I wondered about that too. I guess we'll find out 7 days from now. But if that were really the case, I think DB would have cited it as a reason for the delay (wink, wink) - why endure all this pressure if he's got the guy in hand and just has to wait on the formality?

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