Team Talent vs Margin of Victory For OSU Under JH (2015 - 2019)
There seems to be a lot of back and forth regarding recruiting, development, coaching, etc. Folks are looking for a reason why we're losing to OSU and more so why the scores have been so bad the last two years. We want to know is it as simple as talent or is it coaching, scheme, development, attrition, or some other reason. I'd like to suggest it's as simple as talent, although I also recognize that Brown was hired to beat Meyer's offense and Day seems to be uniquely qualified to beat Brown's scheme as they coached together at one point. Anyways, here's a comparison of 247's Team Talent Composite for the last 5 years under JH and the margin of loss to OSU in The Game.
UM OSU Difference Pt Differential in Game
2015 #9 #3 6 spots 29 pts
2016 #8 #5 3 spots 3 pts
2017 #7 #2 5 spots 11 pts
2018 #8 #1 7 spots 23 pts
2019 #11 #2 9 spots 29 pts
As you can clearly see the larger the difference in the team talent composite, the larger the margin of victory for OSU with 2015, 2018, and 2019 being the worst. Unsurprisingly the two closest games were 2017 and 2016 where the team talent composite difference was only 3-5 spots. 5 spots in the team talent composite seems to be the magic number to be competitive and 3 spots seems like the number to actually suggest the possibility of a win instead of a close loss (assuming you don't get screwed by horrible officiating).
December 4th, 2019 at 8:34 AM ^
Bigger talent gap = bigger point differentials. Groundbreaking.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:39 AM ^
Which also in turn suggests there is not some drastic problem in coaching or scheme or we don't need new or better coaches. They are doing what's expected with their talent. So, either we can recruit better. We can hope OSU's recruiting will come back to tradition pre-Meyer levels to make us more competitive. Or, we can concede that we just aren't going to be competitive with OSU as long as they continue to have top 5 team talent and accept it.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:45 AM ^
It's a vicious cycle because to out-recruit them, you gotta beat them and perform better than them. This whole thing is more about OSU's success than anything else. They are an unbelievable run of success that very few teams can keep up/compete with.
People can pick on Harbaugh all they want (and they will), but he's still one of the best football coaches out there and is getting Michigan to what its ceiling is. There's a reason that every time a coaching position comes open, Harbaugh is always brought up.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:48 AM ^
This whole thing is more about OSU's success than anything else. They are an unbelievable run of success that very few teams can keep up/compete with.
100%. But, I don't see the UM fan base ever accepting this and to be honest. I'm not sure I see OSU ever reverting back either, which means UM may never again be competitive with OSU and that's a hard pill to swallow.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:56 AM ^
Never is a strong word. Teams come and go and OSU will revert to the mean eventually. That being said, they are looking like they will continue this for a near record amount of time.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:30 AM ^
"I'm not sure I see OSU ever reverting back either..."
20 years ago, Miami of Florida and FSU fans would have laughed and sneered at the suggestion that they would ever sink to the level they've been at over the last several years.
You might not have been old enough to have watched FSU's 51-31 beatdown of Michigan in our own stadium in 1991, but believe me it was as humiliating as what's happened at the hands of OSU the last couple of years. The Seminoles ran around, over, and through the Wolverines that day. We looked completely outclassed in terms of raw athletic talent.
The main difference is that it wasn't a conference game, and FSU wasn't our most hated rival.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:53 AM ^
I'm not sure I see OSU ever reverting back either...
I agree that "never" doesn't really mean "never". I was exaggerating. I meant more literally any time soon.
20 years ago, Miami of Florida and FSU fans would have laughed and sneered at the suggestion that they would ever sink to the level they've been at over the last several years.
OSU's success spans much longer than either of those programs. OSU hasn't been below an 8-win team consistently since like the 60's. OSU was good about a decade earlier (70s) then FSU and Miami and have maintained it a good decade longer. So, OSU's success has been going strong for a good 50 years whereas those other two are more like 20-30 years.
You might not have been old enough to have watched FSU's 51-31 beatdown of Michigan in our own stadium in 1991, but believe me it was as humiliating as what's happened at the hands of OSU the last couple of years.
I get it. I was alive, but on 12 years old. I'm sure I watched with my dad, but can't say I remember much about it. But, I was alive to watch us unable to stop USC in the 2006 season which we thought was a great UM team. Those USC teams were on the same level in terms of talent as today's OSU teams.
The main difference is that it wasn't a conference game, and FSU wasn't our most hated rival.
Our history with OSU is the lens through which we see this game. Also, Coopers ineptness may have given us a false sense of confidence. We may never be able to do that again against a competent coach, which he was minus against UM.
December 4th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
Fwiw I was at the FSU-UM game in 1991 (my second as a freshman) and in actuality the game was closer than the score indicated. Iirc it was 38-31 in the 4th quarter and Michigan was driving when a sack-fumble-TD by FSU made the game out of reach. That being said, it was clear that both the scheme and speed of FSU was better than that of UM (and that was a really good team). Wrt OSU and talent, I think both that it's easier at this time to keep dynasties going (for reasons that are legit and less-so) but also that coaching changes and scandals can still take programs down a few notches.
December 4th, 2019 at 12:22 PM ^
"Those USC teams were on the same level in terms of talent as today's OSU teams."
The 2004 and 2007 Rose Bowls were similar to what we've encountered against OSU in terms of talent; the primary difference is that USC's offense was more of an old-school pro set as opposed to the high-octane system of Meyer so we didn't get torched for as many points.
The 2003 Michigan team was BIG champion, with two All-Conference OLs in Pape and Baas.
Nevertheless, USC sacked Navarre nine times. It was pathetic—like we were a Division II team.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:01 AM ^
You sound young. We used to beat OSU teams with way more talent than we had all the time. Literally for the first 25 years of my life.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:12 AM ^
Yeah, back when the Big 10 was the Big 10, and we had 2 tough games a year. The whole dynamic has changed. Back then we had 100 scholarships, and depth wasn't as big an issue, and it was just line up and play football. No one gave a shit about scheme.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:06 AM ^
You think we had 100 scholarships in the 90s? ? They reduced the number to 85 in 1992.
Also the Big Ten was just as good in the 90s as now...Penn State was at their best under Paterno, Northwestern was really good in 95 and 96, Wisconsin had just turned it around under Alvarez and went 10-1-1 in 1993 and was good every year, and OSU was elite but couldn't beat Michigan.
December 4th, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^
The Big Ten was super strong in 1999. Going from memory, Big Ten champions Wisconsin beat Pac 10 champions in the Rose (Stanford?), Big Ten runner-up Michigan beat SEC champion Alabama in the Orange and I think 3rd place MSU beat SEC runner up Florida in the Citrus.
To me, it seems like Saban was the one that took college football to the next level. He seemed to invent (or quickly copy) grey shirting, medical redshirts, football analysts, etc. Instead of pretending to be about the student athlete, he was pretty ruthless that this was about football. Other SEC teams copied that and Meyer brought it to OSU.
December 4th, 2019 at 5:23 PM ^
We have grayshirted and processed players under Harbaugh...what rock are you living under?
December 4th, 2019 at 9:24 AM ^
You sound young.
I can't tell on this new forum who that was in response to. But, I'm 40 and grew up in the 90's.
We used to beat OSU teams with way more talent than we had all the time.
I think your comment is a common thought. I'd agree with you based on the eye test of watching games when I was in my teens and early 20's. But I also don't have any objective data on recruiting rankings in the 80's and 90's. Can you provide any evidence of the recruiting during those eras?
December 4th, 2019 at 8:09 PM ^
You're a man!
December 4th, 2019 at 10:10 AM ^
Nail on the head
December 4th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
To be fair, part of being a great head coach at the collegiate level IS recruiting top talent and retaining top talent. It's not as if Harbaugh has no control and just has to wait and see what kind of players the NCAA sends to him in his yearly allotment...he has to go out and get them to come. If he can't convince enough good players to come play for him, then that's a coaching deficit. Xs and Os only count for so much...just ask Charlie Weiss.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:24 AM ^
Charlie's decided schematic advantage!
December 4th, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
Why does Auburn, with a bigger “talent differential” than us, regularly beat Alabama?
December 4th, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
FWIW the difference between Bama & Auburn is only one more ranking place than UM & OSU, so it's essentially the same...not more. But, I think if Fields went down and Chuganov had to play and threw two pick 6's we would have won too. I think the dynamics are a bit different. It's fine to make a comparison, but context matters. If you could go back say over the last 5 years and see how the average over that time span comes out it would be more compelling. But, one year without context could just be randomness...which IMO it is.
December 4th, 2019 at 12:53 PM ^
Auburn has won 4 out of 10 against Alabama.
Its not just a one year thing.
December 4th, 2019 at 1:25 PM ^
Winning 4 of the last 14 is better than UM's 1 of the last 14, but not by much. They also have 36-0, 42-14, 49-0, and 52-21 losses in there too during that time span. From what I can tell the only difference between Aub/Bama and UM/OSU is Auburn got a once in a generation talent in Cam Newton and got a lucky break with Tua getting injured (and Hurts transferring). Other that it's pretty much the same.
I think the fates of UM and Aub are very similar. Both recruit similarly...just outside of a top 10 class. Both average about 9 wins per year. And, both typically lose to their more talented rival. Yes, Aub is slightly better against their rival than UM, but not much. Is that coaching, scheme, recruiting, retention, or dumb luck?...I'm not sure, but it doesn't seem that significant of a difference to me, but you're right they are slightly better.
December 4th, 2019 at 12:53 PM ^
Auburn has won 4 out of 10 against Alabama.
Its not just a one year thing.
December 4th, 2019 at 5:30 PM ^
Also they also lost 4 in a row the 4 years before that making it 4 of the last 14 and got blown out just as much as UM. If you take away Cam Newton & the Tua injury they have have exactly one more win than UM during the last 8 years. So again, yes they are slightly better, but not much and certainly not enough to point to something Aub is doing right and/or UM is doing wrong.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
All you needed were your eyes to see that Ohio State was a better coached team than us on Saturday. They executed like the better coached team all game.
December 4th, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
give one concrete example of how Michigan was "outcoached" (on the field, not in recruiting)
December 4th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
In college football - recruiting IS coaching.
December 4th, 2019 at 3:39 PM ^
Hilarious- tell this to Army because you almost lost to them AT home and they have some of lowest recruiting classes in CFB
Wisky blew you out with less stars
Just keep telling yourself your coaches are fine
December 4th, 2019 at 9:09 AM ^
How many times and how many different ways will we see this thread going forward?
December 4th, 2019 at 9:35 AM ^
Until we feel better about ourselves :)
Or until we argue enough to reach some consensus and accept it.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:17 AM ^
Until the sunshine blowers completely convince themselves that it’s out of Michigan’s control and that Harbaugh is doing everything he can perfectly. Nvm that his teams are undisciplined af and make bone headed mistakes at crucial times for 5 years now.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:24 AM ^
I like Harbaugh and I think he should remain our coach. But there are some serious issues with our team that fall squarely on his shoulders.
Yes, OSU is more talented. But they're not so much more talented that we have no shot against them. I really wish Brian hadn't put that shit on the front page.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
I heard this one a lot about Hudson jumping offside. Do you think Harbaugh forgot to teach him the offside rule or something? I think it's actually because these kids are trying so fucking hard to prove our ridiculous fanbase wrong, they play tight and over-assert themselves.
December 4th, 2019 at 11:10 AM ^
I think the bigger issue is why was UM going for a blocked punt? Maybe they weren't and Hudson massively screwed up by faking the pressure. Yeah, a blocked punt would be a huge momentum swing. However, in a game where the coaches should know that you probably aren't going to force OSU in to many punts, let the defense get off the field with a stop and let your offense go. The offense wasn't being shutdown. They had been moving the ball pretty consistently against OSU's defense.
Offsides when it's 4th and 10, no big deal, they'll just re-kick. Offsides when it's 4th and 4 - just awful.
December 4th, 2019 at 6:29 PM ^
FWIW, when watching soon after that blunder, it seemed that JH had some words with Partridge (latter didn't seem happy). Anyone else catch that?
December 4th, 2019 at 8:37 AM ^
So we were closest, talent wise, in 2016. A team consisting almost entirely of Brady Hoke's players.
That, in and of itself, is seriously concerning.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:44 AM ^
Hoke's problem wasn't recruiting, at least initially, nor was it his performance against OSU. He had two top 6 classes in 2012 and 2013 of which were juniors and seniors in 2016. Hoke's problem is that his recruiting went down significantly after 2013 when his W/L records continued to decline each year, which was probably mostly due to the offense under Borges. Remember Hoke's best year was in 2011 with Rich Rod's recruits. JH was the one who got Hoke's recruits to win in 2015 and 2016.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:53 AM ^
Yeah, we all know that. My question is, what in the actual fuck happened with our recruiting? Didn't we all expect Harbaugh to recruit better than Hoke? And to be better at player development?
Granted, we've had some really good classes. The problem is, half those guys aren't on the team anymore. Player retention is a serious concern.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:04 AM ^
My homer message board fan hottake: Harbaugh came in with a certain recruiting strategy, thinking he could go all over the country and recruit 5 stars and top 100 players from every corner, (see Aubrey Solomon, and all the west coast guys) and it led to a lot of attrition for a variety of reasons. He's made pretty significant changes to his approach in recruiting since 2018. *hopefully* this works out for the better.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:10 AM ^
I think the satellite camp thing fucked us too. It would have really opened up the south and west if it had continued.
His approach wasn't wrong though. We used to pluck highly rated guys from around the country all the time. The bulk of the team was always from the midwest, but some of our best players have come from across the country.
2019 class was encouraging. 2020 not so much.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:33 AM ^
Also think not recruiting OH very hard is hurting us. Not going after the most talented state in your region is a problem. With GMatt and Washington gone we don't an elite recruiter with OH ties. If Brown, Camp, etc leave I'm hoping we can find an OH guy to replace them.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:14 AM ^
Didn't we all expect Harbaugh to recruit better than Hoke?
I think he has. I consider JH's recruiting classes 2016 (#8), 2017 (#5), 2018 (#22), 2019 (#8), and 2020 (#13). His average class is #11. I consider Hoke's recruiting classes 2012 (#6), 2013 (#4), 2014 (#20), and 2015 (#37). His average class was #17. Both coaches started off hot with two top 10 classes, but Hoke couldn't maintain that and dropped way back. JH also dropped back in his third class, but he returned to his average with two classes just outside the top 10.
And to be better at player development?
I think he has been better here. His W/L record supports this. Hoke had one great year, two OK years, and one terrible year. He got worse every year which means he couldn't develop his own players and basically won on change from the previous regime. JH has been able to maintain his 9-win average. He also took a QB from Iowa that got benched into a QB that got drafted. His offensive lines improved since when he got there. His defenses improved as well. His only glaring problem is the last two OSU games IMO.
December 4th, 2019 at 7:42 PM ^
Isnt 2015 more of a combined Harbaugh/Hoke class? Hoke was fired after the 2014 season and Harbaugh was hired in early Jan '15.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
Recruiting hasn’t been the problem. Keeping those guys here, has.
How many top ~200 type players have we had transfer out for various reasons the past few seasons? Off the top of my head there’s Solomon, Singleton, Asiasi, Oliver Martin, Hudson, Evans was kicked off the team. Add in a few last minute recruiting losses like Najee Harris and Isaiah Wilson.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
How many top ~200 type players have we had transfer out for various reasons the past few seasons? Off the top of my head there’s Solomon, Singleton, Asiasi, Oliver Martin, Hudson, Evans was kicked off the team.
I'd question if that's more of a player evaluation problem than an attrition one. None of those guys have really done anything special at their landing spots. I mean Singleton was a top 100 player and he doesn't even start at Rutgers. Martin was a top 200 player doesn't start at Iowa. Irving-Bey, Malone-Hatcher, and JaRaymond Hall were top 300 players and none play. Solomon hasn't done anything special for a 5-star at UT, but is starting. Asiasi is probably having the best year. It would be nice to have his blocking and catching ability. But, I'd say most of them were over ranked as recruits.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:24 AM ^
But their recruiting rankings are what determine the team talent composite. Not how good they actually are. We’re talking about how our recruiting hasn’t improved compared to Hoke. It has, but for various reasons those guys haven’t stuck around. Whether it’s injury, academics, playing time, or personal reasons. We’ve had quite a few higher ranked guys leave the program that would have been a boost to our team talent composite score.
Whether or not a particular recruit is ranked properly is another issue entirely, and one of my biggest issues with the “stars matter,” crowd.
December 4th, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^
But their recruiting rankings are what determine the team talent composite.
Yes and no. The team talent composite is the recruiting ranking of the total roster. But, it is not the recruiting ranking of the last 4-5 classes. So, guys that transfer out like Singleton, Solomon, etc. are not included on the team talent composite. However, guys that transfers in like Patterson are. So, the team talent composite is significantly lower than what we'd be if it were the 4 year recruiting average.
We’re talking about how our recruiting hasn’t improved compared to Hoke.
You're right, recruiting has improved from Hoke in terms of class rankings. Hoke's 4-year average was the #17 class. JH's 5 year average is #11.
It has, but for various reasons those guys haven’t stuck around. Whether it’s injury, academics, playing time, or personal reasons. We’ve had quite a few higher ranked guys leave the program that would have been a boost to our team talent composite score.
Correct, I'm suggesting there may be some other problem rather than attrition. I don't think good players are leaving. I think average players are leaving because guys ranked below then turned out to be better, so those guys were over-ranked as recruits...aka Singleton, Solomon, Peters, etc. as not really that good and Bush, Kemp, McCaffrey although lower ranked are better because they played ahead of them. I'm not sure why we've had so many transfers. Maybe assistant coaching turnover. Maybe poor player evaluation. Maybe just dumb luck. But, I don't think good players are leaving by and large.
Whether or not a particular recruit is ranked properly is another issue entirely, and one of my biggest issues with the “stars matter,” crowd.
It does matter, but it's better viewed as a larger sample size such as an entire class or the team talent composite which takes the whole roster into account. I don't think it's a good evaluation tool by itself when looking at one individual guy or a handful of guys out of context without any other supporting data.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:02 AM ^
At least one of Michigan's starters that year, Chris Wormley, may have been on the team because of OSU's 2011 implosion. That event was only so much of a factor by 2016, but it seems worth pointing out that Coach Hoke had some help from the tattoo scandal with his hot recruiting start.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:11 AM ^
These are rankings, not absolute talent levels, but even so: the difference isn’t in our ranking, it’s in theirs (unless this year is a trend). So if there’s something “concerning” as you say, it’s that they’ve got more & more talented...but Brian has been pointing that out: the steady trend of concentration of top talent in top 4-5 teams