Fall Roster Overanalysis
In the spring I combed through the roster for weight changes in an effort to read the portents included therein. Today, on National Overreact To A Tiny Slice Of Information Day, we return to the Ouija board.
Unfortunately, the spring roster has been obliterated in favor of the official fall roster so I can only do the full comparison on players whose weight changes from fall 2009 to spring 2010 were deemed "significant." I do have the previous fall roster and have included any players of note from that; anyone who didn't appear in the last edition was one or two pounds off.
Presenting MANY NUMBERS. Projected starters are in bold; I didn't bother trying to guess at QB and RB:
QB | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | 2009 | Spring | 2010 | Fall to Spring | Spring To Fall | 2009 to 2010 |
Denard Robinson | 185 | -- | 193 | -- | -- | 8 |
Tate Forcier | 188 | 194 | 192 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
RUNNING BACK | ||||||
Player | 2009 | Spring | 2010 | Fall to Spring | Spring To Fall | 2009 to 2010 |
John McColgan | 227 | -- | 231 | -- | -- | 4 |
Fitzgerald Toussaint | 185 | -- | 200 | -- | -- | 15 |
Michael Cox | 208 | -- | 211 | -- | -- | 3 |
Michael Shaw | 178 | -- | 187 | -- | -- | 9 |
Vincent Smith | 168 | -- | 180 | -- | -- | 12 |
WIDE RECEIVER | ||||||
Player | 2009 | Spring | 2010 | Fall to Spring | Spring To Fall | 2009 to 2010 |
Junior Hemingway | 220 | 227 | 225 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
Darryl Stonum | 196 | 193 | 195 | -3 | 2 | -1 |
Je'Ron Stokes | 181 | 187 | 193 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
Jeremy Gallon | 165 | 171 | 180 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
Kelvin Grady | 168 | -- | 176 | -- | -- | 8 |
Martavious Odoms | 172 | -- | 175 | -- | -- | 3 |
Roy Roundtree | 170 | 169 | 176 | -1 | 7 | 6 |
Terrence Robinson | 171 | -- | 175 | -- | -- | 4 |
TIGHT END | ||||||
Player | 2009 | Spring | 2010 | Fall to Spring | Spring To Fall | 2009 to 2010 |
Kevin Koger | 249 | -- | 255 | -- | -- | 6 |
Martell Webb | 245 | 257 | 255 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
Brandon Moore | 243 | 260 | 250 | 17 | -10 | 7 |
OFFENSIVE LINE | ||||||
Player | 2009 | Spring | 2010 | Fall to Spring | Spring To Fall | 2009 to 2010 |
Mark Huyge | 288 | 305 | 306 | 17 | 1 | 18 |
Michael Schofield | 268 | 281 | 293 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
Quinton Washington | 325 | 307 | 315 | -18 | 8 | -10 |
Ricky Barnum | 275 | 282 | 286 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
Rocko Khoury | 283 | 291 | 295 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
Taylor Lewan | 268 | 283 | 294 | 15 | 11 | 26 |
David Molk | 275 | 270 | 285 | -5 | 15 | 10 |
Elliott Mealer | 299 | 310 | 313 | 11 | 3 | 14 |
Stephen Schilling | 304 | -- | 308 | -- | -- | 4 |
John Ferrara | 279 | -- | 286 | -- | -- | 7 |
Patrick Omameh | 276 | 293 | 299 | 17 | 6 | 23 |
Perry Dorrestein | 306 | -- | 321 | -- | -- | 15 |
DEFENSIVE LINE | ||||||
Player | 2009 | Spring | 2010 | Fall to Spring | Spring To Fall | 2009 to 2010 |
Adam Patterson | 263 | 272 | 276 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
Anthony LaLota | 256 | 263 | 270 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
Greg Banks | 266 | 274 | 285 | 8 | 11 | 19 |
Craig Roh | 238 | 249 | 251 | 11 | 2 | 13 |
Will Heininger | 261 | 271 | 267 | 10 | -4 | 6 |
William Campbell | 318 | 324 | 333 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
Ryan Van Bergen | 271 | 280 | 283 | 9 | 3 | 12 |
Steve Watson | 257 | -- | 268 | -- | -- | 11 |
Mike Martin | 292 | -- | 299 | -- | -- | 7 |
Renaldo Sagesse | 279 | 285 | 289 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
LINEBACKER | ||||||
Player | 2009 | Spring | 2010 | Fall to Spring | Spring To Fall | 2009 to 2010 |
Brandon Herron | 220 | -- | 220 | -- | -- | 0 |
Isaiah Bell | 220 | 237 | 245 | 17 | 8 | 25 |
J.B. Fitzgerald | 232 | 239 | 244 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
Kenny Demens | 236 | 244 | 250 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
Jonas Mouton | 228 | -- | 240 | -- | -- | 12 |
Kevin Leach | 206 | 200 | 205 | -6 | 5 | -1 |
Mark Moundros | 233 | -- | 233 | -- | -- | 0 |
Mike Jones | 203 | 207 | 208 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Obi Ezeh | 243 | 240 | 250 | -3 | 10 | 7 |
CORNERBACK | ||||||
Player | 2009 | Spring | 2010 | Fall to Spring | Spring To Fall | 2009 to 2010 |
J.T. Floyd | 183 | -- | 183 | -- | -- | 0 |
J.T. Turner | 187 | 197 | 198 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
Troy Woolfolk | 193 | -- | 195 | -- | -- | 2 |
James Rogers | 182 | -- | 183 | -- | -- | 1 |
SAFETY | ||||||
Player | 2009 | Spring | 2010 | Fall to Spring | Spring To Fall | 2009 to 2010 |
Brandin Hawthorne | 198 | -- | 203 | -- | -- | 5 |
Floyd Simmons | 185 | -- | 200 | -- | -- | 15 |
Jordan Kovacs | 194 | 200 | 195 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
Cameron Gordon | 208 | -- | 207 | -- | -- | -1 |
Mike Williams | 188 | -- | 200 | -- | -- | 12 |
Teric Jones | 193 | -- | 195 | -- | -- | 2 |
Thomas Gordon | 205 | -- | 205 | -- | -- | 0 |
Vladimir Emilien | 198 | -- | 204 | -- | -- | 6 |
Bullets on the contents herein:
- Holy productive summer (and previous fall), offensive line. Molk bounced back from his injury-caused loss and is now at a respectable 285. The kids, meanwhile, are all pushing 300 after coming in significantly smaller than that. They're still a little light in the shorts, but they'll be significantly bigger than they were a year ago.
- Similarly, the front seven is going to be a lot bigger even if it's Greg Banks taking over for Brandon Graham. The three returning starters put on an average of 11 pounds and Banks is 17 pounds heavier than Graham was. Not that anyone's happy about losing Graham. The linebackers, meanwhile, are all up significantly, with Isaiah Bell well on his way to becoming his own country.
- Jeremy Gallon wins the Biggest Anti-Loser award for gaining more weight as a percentage of his starting weight than anyone else.
- Fitzgerald Toussaint and Vincent Smith are getting up there for guys their size; hopefully they'll have the durability to last after putting on 15 and 12 pounds, respectively.
- Turners extra 11 pounds may be the reason he's stuck behind Floyd.
- The beefy tight ends must have been a bit too beefy; they've started backing down.
- Not sure what to make of Quinton Washington and Will Campbell going back up after freshman years spent shedding weight. Similarly, Perry Dorrestein's 321 seems too heavy, especially for a guy who had plenty of trouble pass blocking last year and is trying to lock down the left tackle job. The other seniors-to be put on a few pounds here and there; Dorrestein's 15 is out of proportion. The Lewan-Dorrestein battle may be over before it even starts.
- All college teams increase the size of their players year-to-year but if I had to bet, Michigan's has to be near the top in terms of beef added on. A symptom of youth.
August 10th, 2010 at 3:50 PM ^
I sent Brian the weight changes since spring (I had saved that roster), so he can fill this out more completely. Another big gainer on the O-line is Christian Pace, who's put on 21 lbs and is up to 280.
Someone needs to create a Barwis metric. Something like: weight * #225 bench presses * max squat / shuttle run time.
I am greatly looking forward to a team that is simultaneously bigger, more physical, and faster.
August 10th, 2010 at 4:02 PM ^
Damn, OL and LB's really packed on the size, with the exception of Mike Jones and Leach those guys need to be hand-cuffed to the buffet.
August 10th, 2010 at 4:27 PM ^
Mike Jones looks like Orlando Jones
That is all.
August 10th, 2010 at 5:30 PM ^
Hey opposing offense: Mike 7 Up Yours
August 10th, 2010 at 5:39 PM ^
And Mike Jones is from Orlando.....weird.....
August 10th, 2010 at 10:36 PM ^
40 subscriptions to Vibe.
August 10th, 2010 at 10:55 PM ^
well done
August 10th, 2010 at 4:45 PM ^
I am a confirmed Roster Weight Watcher so I expected the OL to get bigger, but I was surprised by the increased heft of the Inside Linebackers. Mouton at 240 is much heavier than ever; Obi, Demens and Fitz are all in the 250 range. Perhaps the scheme of our new 3-3-5/4-2-5 alignment will feature larger bodies to clog the middle whilst the various Spurs, Bandits and Wolves (Oh My!) patrol the flanks and flats.
August 10th, 2010 at 4:52 PM ^
I just want to say that I think these gains are tremendous.
August 10th, 2010 at 5:17 PM ^
I think the determinant is player strength and agility, not so much weight.
Rodriguez's best OL player ever was probably Dan Mozes (now on UM's staff), who played guard and center for RR. Mozes as a Scout 3-star OL. He also won the 2006 Rimington Trophy. I think Rick Trickett was his position coach.
Not much in terms of big gains for Dan Mozes under Barwis:
2003 Freshman Guard Dan Mozes 6-3, 290
2004 Sophomore Guard Dan Mozes 6-3, 290 (starter)
2005 Junior Guard Dan Mozes 6-4, 280 (starter)
2006 Senior Guard Dan Mozes 6-4, 290 (starter, Rimington Trophy winner)
Other great OL under RR were Greg Isdaner, Ryan Stanchek and Jake Figner. Interesting gains for some of these players, but most stayed close to original weight. Looking at WVU's sick rushing stats, hard to argue the OL didn't improve during this period.
Greg Isdaner (Scout 2-star OL)
2006 Freshman Guard Greg Isdaner 6-3, 315
2007 Sophomore Guard Greg Isdaner 6-3, 315 (starter)
Ryan Stanchek (Scout 2-star OL)
2005 Freshman Guard Ryan Stanchek 6-4, 285
2006 Sophomore Guard Ryan Stanchek 6-4, 280 (starter next to Mozes)
2007 Junior Tackle Ryan Stanchek 6-4, 300 (starter)
Jake Figner (Scout 2-star OL)
2005 Freshman Tackle Jake Figner 6-5, 285
2006 Sophomore Tackle Jake Figner 6-5, 290 (starter)
2007 Junior Tackle Jake Figner 6-5, 305 (starter)
August 10th, 2010 at 7:45 PM ^
2004 Sophomore Guard Dan Mozes 6-3, 290 (starter)
lose the bad weight
2005 Junior Guard Dan Mozes 6-4, 280 (starter)
gain the good weight
2006 Senior Guard Dan Mozes 6-4, 290 (starter, Rimington Trophy winner)
August 10th, 2010 at 7:53 PM ^
weight is good on its own to a point but its only half the equation, body fat content is the other half. If that percentage is dropping consistently while holding the same weight, its still regular improvement.
August 10th, 2010 at 5:19 PM ^
Sometime over the winter I tabulated the average weights of the defensive two deeps of two groups -- the top 20 defenses in the NCAA FBS and the bottom 20. The average player on the good defenses weighed 233, vs. 222 on the bad defenses. That 11 pound difference was uniform across the three levels -- DL, LB and DB.
Of course, It's not a major revelation that bigger football players tend to be better. As Brian alluded toward the end of his comments, it may also be more that bigger players tend to be older players and so it's not just their size that makes them better players as much as their maturity and experience and their size.
Anyway, I had Michigan's 2009 two-deep average at 224 per man and I now have a plausible 2010 two-deep at 238. That's a lot of additional weight which is a bit slanted by the addition of Will and the subtraction of BG. Still, a big difference.
Re Ezeh and Mouton, could it be possible that their responsibilities will be much less ambiguous? Get your big, reasonably fast body into gap X right now!
August 10th, 2010 at 7:52 PM ^
August 10th, 2010 at 8:06 PM ^
Our defense just put on 208 lbs!!
August 10th, 2010 at 8:15 PM ^
I just realized that Tate and Denard are effectively the same size (Robinson - 6'/193 and Tate 6'/192), yet nobody ever seems worried about Denard getting injured while running the option. Of course, Pat White was about the same size and flourished, so maybe not much to read into it. I just thought Denard was going to be quite a bit heavier/bigger.
August 10th, 2010 at 10:20 PM ^
64 | Christian Pace | OL | 6-2 | 259 | FR |
7 | Devin Gardner | QB | 6-4 | 203 | FR |
33 | Stephen Hopkins | RB | 6-0 | 236 | FR |
23 | Austin White | RB | 6-0 | 196 | FR |
17 | Jeremy Jackson | WR | 6-3 | 196 | FR |
82 | Ricardo Miller | WR | 6-4 | 212 | FR |
83 | Jerald Robinson | WR | 6-1 | 191 | FR |
68 | Mike Martin | DT | 6-2 | 294 | JR |
42 | J.B. Fitzgerald | LB | 6-3 | 239 | JR |
20 | Michael Shaw | RB | 6-1 | 181 | JR |
9 | Martavious Odoms | SR | 5-8 | 173 | JR |
86 | Kevin Koger | TE | 6-4 | 251 | JR |
22 | Darryl Stonum | WR | 6-2 | 193 | JR |
24 | Al Backey | CB | 5-10 | 178 | RS FR |
2 | J.T. Turner | CB | 6-2 | 197 | RS FR |
90 | Anthony LaLota | DE | 6-4 | 263 | RS FR |
67 | Nathan Brink | DT | 6-5 | 242 | RS FR |
46 | Seth Broekhuizen | K | 6-1 | 192 | RS FR |
26 | Isaiah Bell | LB | 6-1 | 237 | RS FR |
54 | Jareth Glanda | LS | 6-3 | 246 | RS FR |
94 | Curt Graman | LS | 6-5 | 191 | RS FR |
69 | Erik Gunderson | OL | 6-8 | 295 | RS FR |
77 | Taylor Lewan | OL | 6-8 | 283 | RS FR |
75 | Michael Schofield | OL | 6-7 | 281 | RS FR |
76 | Quinton Washington | OL | 6-4 | 307 | RS FR |
34 | Brendan Gibbons | PK | 6-1 | 245 | RS FR |
93 | Kris Pauloski | PK | 6-3 | 202 | RS FR |
14 | Nader Furrha | QB | 5-11 | 175 | RS FR |
32 | O'Neil Swanson | RB | 5-10 | 158 | RS FR |
28 | Fitzgerald Toussaint | RB | 5-10 | 199 | RS FR |
4 | Cameron Gordon | S | 6-3 | 208 | RS FR |
15 | Thomas Gordon | S | 5-11 | 208 | RS FR |
10 | Jeremy Gallon | SR | 5-8 | 171 | RS FR |
27 | Jordan Owens | SR | 5-9 | 163 | RS FR |
85 | Joe Reynolds | WR | 6-1 | 177 | RS FR |
17 | Tony Anderson | CB | 5-11 | 193 | RS JR |
53 | Ryan Van Bergen | DE | 6-6 | 280 | RS JR |
81 | Steve Watson | DE | 6-4 | 257 | RS JR |
39 | Will Heininger | DT | 6-6 | 271 | RS JR |
62 | Dominique Ware | DT | 5-7 | 247 | RS JR |
49 | John McColgan | FB | 6-1 | 238 | RS JR |
36 | Rasheed Furrha | LB | 6-1 | 207 | RS JR |
58 | Brandon Herron | LB | 6-2 | 220 | RS JR |
52 | Kevin Leach | LB | 6-1 | 200 | RS JR |
91 | Tom Pomarico | LS | 6-4 | 238 | RS JR |
61 | Zac Ciullo | OL | 6-1 | 266 | RS JR |
72 | Mark Huyge | OL | 6-6 | 305 | RS JR |
50 | David Molk | OL | 6-2 | 270 | RS JR |
97 | Scott Schrimscher | PK | 5-10 | 177 | RS JR |
19 | Zac Johnson | S | 6-2 | 200 | RS JR |
21 | Jordan Reilly | S | 5-10 | 180 | RS JR |
35 | Karl Tech | S | 5-10 | 199 | RS JR |
31 | Jared Van Slyke | S | 6-2 | 206 | RS JR |
40 | Mike Williams | S | 5-11 | 190 | RS JR |
19 | Kelvin Grady | SR | 5-10 | 167 | RS JR |
46 | Jon Bills | TE | 6-3 | 238 | RS JR |
21 | Junior Hemingway | WR | 6-1 | 227 | RS JR |
30 | Doug Rogan | WR | 6-1 | 183 | RS JR |
12 | J.T. Floyd | CB | 6-0 | 183 | RS SO |
68 | Alex Schwab | DT | 6-0 | 235 | RS SO |
25 | Kenny Demens | LB | 6-1 | 244 | RS SO |
59 | Paul Gyarmati | LB | 6-1 | 205 | RS SO |
66 | George Morales | LS | 6-0 | 227 | RS SO |
56 | Ricky Barnum | OL | 6-3 | 282 | RS SO |
63 | Rocko Khoury | OL | 6-4 | 291 | RS SO |
57 | Elliott Mealer | OL | 6-5 | 310 | RS SO |
65 | Patrick Omameh | OL | 6-4 | 293 | RS SO |
20 | Jack Kennedy | QB | 5-11 | 189 | RS SO |
15 | Michael Cox | RB | 6-0 | 210 | RS SO |
28 | Matthew Cavanaugh | S | 5-10 | 183 | RS SO |
32 | Jordan Kovacs | S | 6-0 | 200 | RS SO |
23 | Floyd Simmons | S | 6-0 | 197 | RS SO |
10 | Jordan Barpal | SR | 5-10 | 160 | RS SO |
8 | Terrence Robinson | SR | 5-9 | 173 | RS SO |
12 | Roy Roundtree | SR | 6-0 | 169 | RS SO |
88 | Brandon Moore | TE | 6-5 | 260 | RS SO |
89 | Patrick Collins | WR | 6-1 | 184 | RS SO |
73 | William Campbell | DT | 6-5 | 324 | SO |
27 | Mike Jones | LB | 6-2 | 207 | SO |
88 | Craig Roh | LB | 6-5 | 249 | SO |
5 | Tate Forcier | QB | 6-1 | 194 | SO |
16 | Denard Robinson | QB | 6-0 | 188 | SO |
2 | Vincent Smith | RB | 5-6 | 169 | SO |
5 | Vladimir Emilien | S | 6-1 | 202 | SO |
7 | Brandin Hawthorne | S | 6-0 | 202 | SO |
14 | Teric Jones | S | 5-9 | 194 | SO |
6 | Je'Ron Stokes | WR | 6-0 | 187 | SO |
18 | James Rogers | CB | 6-1 | 191 | SR |
29 | Troy Woolfolk | CB | 6-0 | 186 | SR |
99 | Adam Patterson | DE | 6-3 | 272 | SR |
92 | Greg Banks | DT | 6-4 | 274 | SR |
95 | Renaldo Sagesse | DT | 6-4 | 285 | SR |
44 | Mark Moundros | FB | 6-1 | 234 | SR |
45 | Obi Ezeh | LB | 6-2 | 240 | SR |
8 | Jonas Mouton | LB | 6-2 | 228 | SR |
79 | Perry Dorrestein | OL | 6-7 | 305 | SR |
74 | John Ferrara | OL | 6-4 | 283 | SR |
52 | Stephen Schilling | OL | 6-5 | 303 | SR |
80 | Martell Webb | TE | 6-4 | 257 | SR |
August 10th, 2010 at 10:27 PM ^
I can't figure it out. Today"s College Football Live had Andre Ware state thathe only sees a Michigan 5 win season, maybe six. He stated this immediately following a statement that college football needed a healthy Michigan Football Program. It is my theory that pliling on only serves their (ESPN) own self interest.
1. UM fails and they say "We told you so",
or
2. They are trying to set upas much drama to write about a UM comback, etc. etc. etc. 5 wins? Really? This is NOT the same team we have seen for 2 years.
August 11th, 2010 at 7:59 AM ^
I saw that too, he said he could only see five wins one the schedule. In my opinion he was talking out of his ass. I assume he was making a snap judgment off of comparing last year’s records and rankings with no research.
August 11th, 2010 at 9:19 PM ^
Obi gaining 10lbs can't be a good thing can it? Since spring? No way that's good weight. 10lbs of muscle? Don't think so. Hope I'm wrong but we need him bad this year and the weight gain is not a good sign.
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