Fourth Quarter Scoring Comparison - OSU
I have noticed a criticismon of Coach Harbaugh on the MGoBoard that I sometimes shared: his tendency towards conservative playcalling late in games.
After yesterday's game, I decided to look at Michigan's games in the Harbaugh Era that were at least somewhat close (I defined as decided by 14 points or less). In the Harbaugh Era, Michigan has had 12 such games. In those games, Michigan outscored its opponents in the fourth quarter 74-69. Michgan's record in those games is 7-5.
I then looked at Ohio State's record for "close" games since 2015. I wanted to see if Harbaugh's approach was (a) even a thing and (b) whether it was that different than another successful college coach.
OSU has only had 9 such games since September 2015. In those games, OSU's record was 7-2. Blessed with a poor memory and limited info, my initial take was that Meyer probably keeps his team's collective foot on the opposing team's collective neck late in games, rather than "playing not to lose."
Well, that take was wrong. In the fourth quarter of those games, OSU was outscored 41-70, including 4 games in which OSU was shut out in the fourth quarter (OSU was 2-2 in those games).
Is there anything to make of this, other than that this is a small sample size, and that there are too many other factors to look to fourth quarter scoring in close or somewhat close games? Or is it possible that OSU the past two years has been pretty lucky?
[For what it's worth, since Setember 2015 Alabama has gone 7-2 in games decided by 14 points or less. In those games, it outscored its opponents in the fourth quarter 111-94.]
September 4th, 2017 at 12:25 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 12:28 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 12:51 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 12:50 PM ^
Red Zone is tough when you aren't getting great push off the line and your QB is trying to avoid throwing a pick. I don't think there's much question that Speight was being cautious with a lead given what had already happened and I think that was the right approach given the play of our defense.
September 5th, 2017 at 2:01 AM ^
September 5th, 2017 at 11:55 AM ^
I agree with you that it isn't necessarily conservative play-calling, since salting a late lead is also an exercise in clock management. As such, it's less an issue of red-zone effectiveness than it is with the offensive line's ability to get the push needed to move the chains on the ground when they need to keep the clock running.
Usually it's riskier in a short clock situation to attempt to move the chains through the air and turn the ball back over to your opponent with extra clock, but knowing that the OL run blocking is going to be one of the primary weaknesses this season, I think we may just see more late game pass plays.
September 4th, 2017 at 12:28 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 12:42 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 2:58 PM ^
September 5th, 2017 at 9:24 AM ^
Well yeah, if they shit on Speight then they can't be upset when he ruins their perfect season.
September 4th, 2017 at 12:50 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 12:28 PM ^
You're allowed to be conservative when you know the opposing offense can't do shit against your stout defense.
September 4th, 2017 at 12:29 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 12:30 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 12:32 PM ^
Is that we used to have big time playmakers who stepped it up late in games. Guys like Manningham, Brady, Woodson, etc. who made a big play when needed. We've been missing guys like that in this program consistently. Sure there have been flashes of it (Denard-->Roundtree, Gibbons, Gallon), but we need a guy who isn't afraid to take control in the 4th. Speight seems to wilt (no pun intented) late in close games at least so far. I don't think it's the play calling that's hurting it's the lack of playmakers on offense/special teams.
September 4th, 2017 at 10:47 PM ^
2015 Minnesota (game-winning TD drive), 2016 Wisconsin (game-winning TD pass midway through the 4th quarter), 2016 OSU overtime (game-saving TD pass), and heck even the FSU game (though Evans of course notched the go-ahead TD) strongly disagree. Speight has led the team to a late game-tying or game-winning TD in almost 25% of his starts.
Speight's problems have been well-documented, but wilting late in games has not been one of them and is an unfair criticism.
The lack of consistent playmakers is very valid, however. Whenever the team needed a big play from Darboh or whoever last year, it was not to be.
September 5th, 2017 at 2:15 AM ^
September 5th, 2017 at 9:49 AM ^
Wisconsin 2016 is definitely not a good example of this.
After the touchdown we had three 3 & out drives in a row.
September 4th, 2017 at 12:33 PM ^
I'd say there's more related to the lack of a reliable running game for Michigan. Most of the running production Michigan has gotten under Harbaugh has been a result of smart play calling and additions to the playbook from game to game. That is less successful when opponents have seen the new wrinkle for 3 quarters and know you are very likely to run the ball if you are trying to eat clock.
One nice sign of an improvement here was on the 3rd to last drive, Michigan strung together a handful of productive running plays and drove most of the way down the field while the game was still technically competitive. There were also a handful of runs for no gain in the 4th but 4 out of 10 4th quarter rushes for more than 5 yards is a big step forward against what should be a solid defense.
September 4th, 2017 at 1:23 PM ^
and you can defeat that supposedly great defensive team by repeatedly running it up their gut. I found the end-game immensely satisfying.
September 4th, 2017 at 12:43 PM ^
Because points in the 4th when you're playing from behind is a bit different than points when you're ahead. If you're looking at holding leads I'd look more towards first downs rather than points. This seems to be our achille's heel. If we get first downs we don't necessarily need to score points to win in the games we're already ahead in. Much different dynamic when Michigan is behind in the game and looking to score...though even then first downs would be a good indication you're moving the ball to score. Both the Iowa game and OSU game last year we didn't need to score points to win, we just needed first downs.
September 4th, 2017 at 1:01 PM ^
That's a very good point. In all five of those losses, Michigan had the lead at some point during the fourth quarter (although Michigan did not really have a chance to manage the clock against FSU).
September 4th, 2017 at 12:44 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 12:46 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 1:08 PM ^
Thanks for the insight, everyone. It makes sense that establishing a solid, "traditional" running game will improve Michigan's chances to hold scores late in games. If nothing else, it was a good sign that Florida's defense looked pretty gassed by the end of the game.
September 4th, 2017 at 1:42 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 2:45 PM ^
September 4th, 2017 at 9:45 PM ^
and it's no surprise we are going to experience confusion with a combination of youth and new parts spread throughout. Most notable is the receiver position where one of the three -normally Butt-would make themselves wide open somehow when we were in the red zone that enabled us to put it in the end zone. Some runners, i.e., Higdon might be a bit better than Evans in picking up the tough three, although Evans w/o the trip looked like he was going in. We also experienced a few penalties we did not last season early that kept the Big Guy away from the "and Goal" at the one yard line. First game, lots of mental mistakes and physical "oh shits" in the red zone; not unexpected, but should be corrected. As someone said, the TD they took away, Evans trip, TD gift from FL to Speight that he refused to accept, etc.,as these things disappear so too will the closer scores. We dominated that damn game and if we don't miss three offensive possessions in a row late in the second quarter, we score FGs after first TD and we win big. We still basically doubled up on them with all these first game mistakes whereas their problems came by virtue of our fastest, swarming, smothering, hardest ass hitting defense in the nation. Because these offensive mistakes will lessen each game, the defense -believe it or don't-will only get better. You had to love how he went to multiple fronts to offset the loss of all the defensive linemen with the expectations the new members will learn as season progresses to give us even more options. Considering all this, this "seeming" issue really might be nothing at all.
September 5th, 2017 at 8:23 AM ^
thanks!
September 5th, 2017 at 12:00 PM ^
Running game is a work in progress. Our biggest run plays came on what Harbaugh called "off-schedule" 3rd and longs and one 4th down conversion where Isaac bounced outside after the middle got plugged.
To ice out games you have to be able to get 4 yards consistently on the ground. We aren't there yet.