Preview 2016: Heuristics And Stupid Prediction
Previously: Podcast 8.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A: Offense. 5Q5A: Defense.
Heuristicland
Turnover Margin
The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.
Year | Margin | Int + | Fumb + | Sacks + | Int - | Fumb - | Sacks - |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 0.15 (41st) | 14 | 15 | 2.46(33rd) | 14 | 13 | 2.17 (67th) |
2008 | -.83 (104th) | 9 | 11 | 2.42(33rd) | 12 | 18 | 1.83 (57th) |
2009 | -1.00 (115th) | 11 | 5 | 1.83(68th) | 15 | 13 | 2.33 (83rd) |
2010 | -0.77(109th) | 12 | 7 | 1.38(98th) | 15 | 14 | 0.85(10th) |
2011 | +0.54 (25th) | 9 | 20 | 2.31 (29th) | 16 | 6 | 1.38 (33rd) |
2012 | -0.69 (99th) | 7 | 11 | 1.69 (69th) | 19 | 8 | 1.38 (28th) |
2013 | +0.38(33rd) | 17 | 9 | 1.9 (64th) | 13 | 8 | 2.77 (109th) |
2014 | -1.33 (124th) | 5 | 5 | 2.4 (49th) | 18 | 8 | 2.2 (63rd) |
2015 | -0.31 (92nd) | 10 | 2 | 2.5 (32nd) | 10 | 6 | 1.4 (28th) |
2015 was nothing like the other new-coach uptick in recent history. Michigan recovered and absurdly low 2 fumbles in 2015; Brady Hoke's first team hopped on 20. With very similar pass rush numbers that's just damned bad luck.
With De'Veon Smith back fumbles lost should remain low. Interceptions are an open question with a new QB and new left tackle. Takeaways should increase as Michigan moves to more zone, specifically sneaky disguised zones, and because of dumb luck on the fumbles. I'd be surprised if this doesn't end up in the top 30, except I'm never surprised by turnover numbers since they're so low sample.
Position Switch Starters
Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.
The dossier:
Chris Wormley to three-tech. Half the time he'll be playing SDE and he's already displayed an ability to play the spot. Concern level: zero.
Maurice Hurst to three-tech. His best spot. Concern level: zero.
Mason Cole to center. Also his best spot. Concern level: zero.
Jabrill Peppers to SAM. This is mostly a relabeling of his previous position and an acknowledgement of modern football. Concern level: zero.
Taco Charlton and Chase Winovich to WDE. Charlton actually moved their last year and got a few starts in. I'm not concerned about that. Winovich as a position-switch top backup who will see time is less than ideal. There have been some reports that he gets edged fairly routinely. But he is the backup. Concern level: slight.
And that's it. This is the fewest number of significant moves in the history of this preview series. It's basically Winovich, the end.
An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt
Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios
There aren't many games on the schedule that will be single digit spreads for Michigan. They're favored at MSU and Iowa and only a significant dog at Ohio State; while they could stub their toe against PSU or Wisconsin both of those teams are taking new QBs on the road behind shaky offensive lines. Indiana looms because #CHAOSTEAM, but after seeing last night I'm guessing their offense takes a big step back.
They could lose the three big road games. 9-3.
Best Case
Michigan has more talent than anyone they face. Only Ohio State can argue otherwise, and they've got to replace a zillion starters. If they slip up 12-0 feels way more likely than it should.
Final Verdict
This team will be a national championship contender. Michigan is stacked everywhere except OL, LB, and QB. Those slots project to be average-ish, not season-ending debacles. Meanwhile, the schedule…
OOC | ||
---|---|---|
9/3 | Hawaii | Must win |
9/10 | Central Florida | Must win |
9/17 | Colorado | Must win |
Conference | ||
9/24 | Penn State | Must win |
10/1 | Wisconsin | Must win |
10/8 | @ Rutgers | Must win |
10/22 | Illinois | Must win |
10/29 | @ MSU | Lean to win |
11/5 | Maryland | Must win |
11/12 | @ Iowa | Lean to win |
11/19 | Indiana | Must win |
11/26 | @ Ohio State | Tossup |
Absent: | Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska |
…is super pliable.
Here's where I talk about combinatorial mathematics and how it's impossible to predict 12-0 seriously. Let's assume 3-0 in the nonconference. If Michigan has a 90% chance to win every conference game, the chance they go undefeated is 39%. Michigan does not have a 90% chance to win every conference game. There's literally no team in the country you should ever predict goes 12-0. Connelly's S&P rankings think that no team is even 50% likely to go 11-1.
This is why it's stupid to predict 12-0. I've never done it and never will, probably. Predicting 12-0 is an act of bravado not rooted in facts.
12-0.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:50 PM ^
I was more responding to his second assertion, that to recover a fumble, one must force a fumble.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^
That would be awesome. Teams do it. Why not us. I mean, who has it better than us?
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:29 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 9:49 PM ^
There's a man who knows how to predict with EUTM. +1
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:29 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:30 PM ^
Choo choo, motherfuckers!
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:33 PM ^
I'm gonna go put myself in a medically induced coma until noon.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:31 PM ^
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September 2nd, 2016 at 3:32 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:32 PM ^
LOVE IT. This really is the year. IF not this year, we won't have the stars aligned for a little while. LOVE this year's group of seniors, they've endured a lot. We're going to go to the playoff. lets do this.
GO BLUE
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:32 PM ^
GET HYPE!
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:33 PM ^
In the schedule under "Final Verdict", you have Iowa listed under "Absent"
Might wanna correct that.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:33 PM ^
Science'd.
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September 2nd, 2016 at 3:36 PM ^
I guess Wilton Speight is gonna be a pretty important figure in Michigan football history. Kid's life is about to change.
12-0 <hyperventila
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:40 PM ^
This is why it's stupid to predict 12-0. I've never done it and never will, probably. Predicting 12-0 is an act of bravado not rooted in facts.
That's sound logic, just like 100% agreement with Kenpom.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:42 PM ^
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September 2nd, 2016 at 3:42 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:43 PM ^
Mother of god. Now go do it gentlemen. Make this happen.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:51 PM ^
will Brian eat a bushel of lemons?
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:55 PM ^
Why? Why must Brian tempt the angry football hating gods with this prediction? I only pray that our sacrifices of LTT and Ahmir MItchell are enough to get us to 12-0 without a vengeful god.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:56 PM ^
I have teary eyes when I see 12-0. Tears of joy and happiness.
I would be damn happy if we go 11-1 with a loss to Iowa.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:59 PM ^
September 3rd, 2016 at 6:23 AM ^
That is so awesome. I don't even live there anymore but they have always belonged in Detroit.
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:02 PM ^
And we beat NW in the B1G Championship game: 13-0
CFP Semi vs. #3 LSU: Win 9-6 = 14-0
CFP Championship vs. #1 Clemson: Win 28-24 = 15-0
September 2nd, 2016 at 7:03 PM ^
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September 2nd, 2016 at 4:02 PM ^
Glad to see that somebody has a little spirit. There is every reason to think this is a great team. And it's a season when MSU and tOSU should be a bit down (not actually down, just a bit). We should play in the National Title Game. Which will be a crap shoot, so can't be predicted.
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:03 PM ^
is brian THE_KNOWLEDGE
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:04 PM ^
Earlier this week:
Today:
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:15 PM ^
got it.
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:07 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:14 PM ^
Other prognosticators might discount the road schedule, but I see it as an advantage. MSU did fine facing us and OSU on the road. There were too many College Gamedays last year where the home team lost. Being on the road means being business-like and not having to deal with the pomp and circumstance of hosting big games.
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September 2nd, 2016 at 4:17 PM ^
are a little short.
15-0.
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:20 PM ^
12-0 until we beat... oh nevermind
Harbaugh year 2 in SF superbowl apperance, history... repeat thyself
LETS GO
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:29 PM ^
It's time.
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:31 PM ^
I mean, Charlie did a little research!
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:32 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:33 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:35 PM ^
I am rock hard, boys. Rock. Hard.
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:38 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:45 PM ^
11-1. They'll lose some weird game, probably to like Iowa, in which they throw 4 picks, lose 2 fumbles, and the Hakweyes win a game like UT against App St. where they win in OT. Or more likely, OSU puts it all together by the end of the year, pull out all the stops, and Mike Weber goes for like 150 yards because UM has an injury to two LBs. But even worst case scenario, this is a great team.
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:46 PM ^
I came to the realization today: this is the first time in a VERY LONG TIME, that this year, we will be lucky if our team can exceed our expectations, not just meet them.
As much as we wanted championships out of the football team, we couldn't expect them. Maybe Hoke year 2. But not really. It was all still just hope.
We should be EXPECTING a B1G this year.
We should EXPECT losing one game, max.
We weren't expecting much the last 7 years. It was all spit on the hand and a prayer.
This.
This is the year we can expect 9 road graders on the O line, 4 ready for a pass, two in the back ready to run.
This is the year we can expect an entire defense to water board an opponent.
We can expect a punt to never fall and roll.
We can expect running backs to find holes and power bomb the secondary.
There may be teams with a better this, or a better that. Great backs, great quarter backs.
But only one team...
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September 2nd, 2016 at 4:49 PM ^
And that's a big finish!
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:59 PM ^
Love the Balls Brian...and I'm on board that undefeated train.
Choo, choo motherfuckers. THis team is stacked!
September 2nd, 2016 at 5:06 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 7:07 PM ^
for everyone assume IID (independent and identically distributed) and don't allow for error in the likelhoods. Ex post, some of these teams will be better than we now think (and some will be worse).
Someone goes 12-0 just about every year, so it's reasonable to expect one or two teams to pull it off. Why not Michigan?
September 2nd, 2016 at 5:11 PM ^
eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!
September 2nd, 2016 at 5:24 PM ^
The real question is, will Michigan lose a football game in the next ten years??
September 2nd, 2016 at 5:35 PM ^
I'm... shocked. At this prediction. Unprecedented.
It's also possible. Really, really possible.
I think, even in the best case, a loss is likely somewhere. Only an unstoppable behemoth every threatens to go undefeated, and even a number of unstoppable behemoths in Tuscaloosa have tripped up here and there.
I... can't...
11-1.
But maybe Brian is right.
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