Odds on Ahmir Mitchell's "Third UM Commit of the Week"
EDIT 1 - looks like the forensic analysis of his 2 tweets indicates the 3rd commitment already happened and is of the silent type. And it might not be announced "this week" - just that it happened "this week".
EDIT 2 - paysites seem to indicate it was Pie Young ....but is being pushed out to a later date which usually means UM is using it as a bird in hand situation... while still hunting for bigger game.
Mitchell said a few days ago he expects 3 commitments this week - so far he is 2 of 2. Speculation odds of "3rd and unknown" commit of week below in a pool of 10 most likely candidates. Feel free to speculate and shoot holes at theories.
** Top probabilities? (2)
Pos | Name | Ntl Rnk |
WR | Dylan Crawford | 101 |
PK | Quinn Nordin | >1000 |
- Crawford - looooong time recruit (2014) of UM, looks like today will be last day he is enrolled in HS so to be EE he will have to declare very soon for UM or Oregon. Said Oregon was his dream offer but didn't commit promptly when offered - a potential positive for UM. Lots of UM stuff on twitter including Fisch pic tagged to top of page. McDoom just commited to Oregon & Tristen Wallace parted ways from OSU last week and might be a wr too for Oregon. Wiltfong and Lorenz still have him crystal ball'd to UM; Ace to Oregon. Same position goup as Mitchell so assume they keep in good contact.
- Nordin - long assumed flip from PSU, MI kid, most think just a matter of time before he drops into class.
====> I'm going with Crawford (no lemon) - assuming it's a 2016 recruit. Maybe a Maize Kool Aid pick as it would top off a hell of a week. Oregon landed both McDoom and a dual threat QB that Urban "cooled on" who looks to be headed to the Ducks to play wideout in past week. So those 2 commits could mean no room for Crawford. Last, Lorenz says Crawford is one of the quieter kids he has been around so if someone were going to commit without a pre announced hat ceremony, he sounds like one.
** Lesser probabilities? (8)
Pos | Name | Ntl Rnk |
OL | Terrance Davis | 65 |
OL | Jean Delance | 90 |
TE | Chase Allen | 562 |
WR | π Young | 394 |
CB | David Long (Stanford) | 63 |
ATH | Jordan Fuller | 128 |
DB | Chris Brown | 717 |
ATH | Khaleke Hudson | 421 |
To keep OP short will list reasons these seem less probable in comments section.
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I've excluded Jonathan Jones (LB), Gary (DL), Lavert Hill (CB) as they seem like they will commit in January-ish. Chris Daniels (DL) announces today but the whole world expects that to be Oklahoma. Dontavious Jackson (LB) would be out of left field but all LB recruiting attention past 2 weeks seems to have gone to Jones and Bush. Donald Stewart (WR) is another lower rated guy from Paramus who is set to visit in Jan - seems like a backup plan at this time however, not an immediate take.
Some speculation on Jaquan Henderson a 2017 S who is a UCLA commit and teammmate of Kurt Taylor - seems improbable Mitchell is talking about a 2017.
December 18th, 2015 at 7:51 AM ^
- Davis or Delance - with this week's 'crooting success, it looks like UM will only have room for 1. Davis is a long time Michigan lean who was sounding less "leany" after OSU visit as he felt like he didnt receive enough attention I guess. Delance was here last week and tweeted he'd see us again - but seems too early for Delance as LSU and TX very hot on his trail.
- Allen - was just offered last week and most don't have him on radar as they still focus on Nauta. If UM staff still thinks there is a chance with Nauta, would not be a committable offer this soon.
- Young - tied to Crawford maybe. If Crawford decides Oregon, and UM wants to fill that spot with another wr, Young is obvious choice. South FL kid, ties to Bush.
- Long - Stanford commit who is supposedly 50/50. Since he would be a flip he doesn't have an announcement date and hence would be a "surprise".
- Fuller - long time OSU lean. NJ kid; Patridge visited last week. Durkin / Mattison visited 2 weeks ago. Last visit to campus was March 2015. UM seems to be in his top 5. Would be a shocker but geography works.
- Hudson - position of need (S?), East-ish coast (Pitt suburb) kid, Mitchell tweeted he wanted him in the class this week. Not on most UM fans radar. Set to visit Jan 15. Offered Nov 2; Zordich visited Dec 6. Don't think he has ever visited campus. No crystall ballz to UM so would be a shocker. Twitter stalking reveals he has recently followed a host of UM 2016 recruits. Note - VA Tech, Pitt, Wisc, and PSU (all teams with good defensive coaching minds) want him.
- Brown - very quiet recruitment that seems to be coming down to UM v TX. However, mid ranked recruit and you'd think UM waits to see how Long & Lavert fall first. Teammate of Dontavious Jackson.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:21 AM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 11:02 AM ^
Pie Young was on board but he decided to string it out for a while. Nate Johnson swooped in and took his sure spot. Crawford is the favorite for the final WR and Harbaugh is giving him first shot at it. If he doesn't take it, Pie will be on board.
December 18th, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^
Exactly how I read it as well.
December 18th, 2015 at 1:14 PM ^
Undoubtably a Michigan man, and probably an engineer.
December 18th, 2015 at 11:03 AM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^
We could have Pie even if we didn't get Bush.
December 18th, 2015 at 7:57 AM ^
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December 18th, 2015 at 8:01 AM ^
If so, what position would he be most likely to play here?
December 18th, 2015 at 8:23 AM ^
Fuller is probably a safety in college, at least for Michigan. He could also play CB or WR. Some people say RB, but I don't see it.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:05 AM ^
If its Fuller, Partridge needs an immediate raise. On top of the one he got 10 days ago.
@M-dog - OSU and Ash see him as a safety.
Possible situation is Fuller is plan A for Safety, and if he falls thru you go to hudson as plan B.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:47 AM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 7:59 AM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 8:01 AM ^
Pie, Fuller, Hudson.... in that order for most likely
December 18th, 2015 at 8:22 AM ^
I think you hit this right on the nose...in the same order of probability as well. I'd put Crawford 4th behind these guys.
Well done.
December 18th, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^
Pie Young...however delaying it isn't always becuase we have a bird in the hand and coaches are delaying it.
It could also be he's delaying it so he can have some big announcement or something.
How many times do kids postpone the obvious announcement just to announce on TV or an all-star game and some beat writer breaks the "news" just to be first and everyone talks about how unfair it is to the kid and how classes the writer is?
December 18th, 2015 at 8:02 AM ^
So is this happening before the weekend?
December 18th, 2015 at 8:36 AM ^
Said 3 commits "this week", so if that is a Fri ...or a Sun ...who knows.
#staybuckled
EDIT - sounds like yest tweet indicates the 3rd already happened. We just dont know about it.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:57 AM ^
Then it could be GARY!!!
I'm going with that.
LALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU.
December 18th, 2015 at 10:16 AM ^
If it is a silent commit, then I don't think that is that far fetched actually.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:02 AM ^
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December 18th, 2015 at 8:10 AM ^
This would be awesome.
Over at 11W they are so butthurt this week. They lost out on their top DT target to the SEC, and we got Walker who used to be committed to them.
To take another recruit away from them - and have him go to us - will set them off into complete meltdown mode.
December 18th, 2015 at 9:04 AM ^
Why is their pain so delicious to me??? Like cake and ice cream...
December 18th, 2015 at 8:06 AM ^
Love the pi symbol for Keyshawn. Well done! I'll take any of your guesses - keep the recruiting rolling.
EE question: don't EEs count against the previous year's quota?
December 18th, 2015 at 8:09 AM ^
Nope.
You can just take as many EEs as to not go over 85 scholarships. They will be 2016 recruits still.
December 18th, 2015 at 9:29 AM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 10:39 AM ^
85 scholarships - which apparently limits us to 7 or 8 EEs this year (from a thread noting who was an EE a few days back)
Would have loved to have enough space to allow Reese in early.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:06 AM ^
I want to thank everybody who helped me in Cedar Creek high school, stood by me and supported me over the years. Today I am GRADUATED
— Ahmir_SoDevoted (@TheDeuce_2_Nice) December 18, 2015
December 18th, 2015 at 8:07 AM ^
No insider info here--just going off what was said on the crutin roundups--but I thought it was going to be Pie Young.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:11 AM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 8:14 AM ^
Yes I prob could have put Pie in group 1 because it seems to be an either or situation with those 2 - only room for 1. If 1 commits, door closes on other.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:28 AM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 8:37 AM ^
This. The paysite guys have confirmed it was Pie but now that's pushed back.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:52 AM ^
So is it "you are a silent commit but we can't accept you until we find out about Crawford...and if he says yes we can't accept your commitmment" sort of thing? i.e. UM has the bird in hand but still wants to explore options.
Because I don't see the reasoning for Pie himself waiting another 6 weeks to say it out loud. Guy above makes it sound like Pie initiated it by pushing it out.
December 18th, 2015 at 9:53 AM ^
No. It's basically "I was going to commit to UM this week but now I may not and I'm not going to commit anywhere until signing day".
December 18th, 2015 at 10:06 AM ^
Ok.
Confusing in light of what Ahmir tweeted yest about all 3 commiting already but things change on a moments notice.
My bet based on nothing is we are slow playing Pie and it can be frustrating for him. So natural for friction of some sort.
Still think they want Crawford as option 1 so if he commits I dont see room for Young unless 3-ish decommits.
December 18th, 2015 at 12:36 PM ^
I think alum hit it right. I'm basing this on this whole triad thing seemed to start right after McDoom committed to Oregon. At that point it seemed the Ducks would take both McDoom and Crawford, so Michigan was moving on with their next target, Pie Young. For his part Pie seems like he's been a strong Michigan lean for awhile, but obviously both parties would reassess a commitment if Crawford's in the class.
So I bet with the old info Pie was set to commit this week, and with the new information he's still a "silent commitment" in that if Michigan doesn't get Crawford, Pie is coming to Michigan, and will announce it in January. Which is close enough that Amir Mitchell is convinced Pie is coming to Michigan.
December 18th, 2015 at 6:28 PM ^
I know Corley to MSU is the narrative but I think you have to consider him a wild card with his ties to Hill and how many times he has visited over the last couple months.
December 19th, 2015 at 11:57 PM ^
This is what many of us want. I hope this is the case, but I'm not getting my hopes up.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:08 AM ^
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December 18th, 2015 at 8:13 AM ^
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December 18th, 2015 at 8:13 AM ^
3 down like i said, you guys just don't know one... And another is near (; Dj Khaled- Another One
— Ahmir_SoDevoted (@TheDeuce_2_Nice) December 17, 2015
Dj Khaled is changing the world before our eyes
— Jordan Fuller (@j__fuller1) December 18, 2015
December 18th, 2015 at 8:22 AM ^
hopefully they are being snarky and wink winking with subtle language.
Latest I found on Fuller seems to be along the lines he wants to take more visits...
http://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2015/12/nj_player_of_the_ye…
http://www.cleveland.com/osu/index.ssf/2015/12/chris_ash_and_jordan_ful…
"Really, I'm just discussing things with my family and seeing what visits I'm going to take next," Fuller, the 6-2, 200-pounder told NJ.com. "That's pretty much it. We are really going to discuss it over this dead period."
Fuller just took his first official visit to Notre Dame this past weekend, but has not scheduled any others yet.
And Fuller admits that Rutgers is in the mix, as well as a handful of other programs. "My focus has gotten smaller," said Fuller. "They change every day, pretty much. It's tough. But we're discussing between Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia Tech, Michigan and Rutgers."
December 18th, 2015 at 8:28 AM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 8:39 AM ^
Rutgers is always in the mix early for NJ kids....and then not in the mix when it counts.
But I think that is a nod to Chris Ash as well as he was a OSU lean and I assume Ash was his recruiter.
December 18th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^
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December 18th, 2015 at 8:15 AM ^
Quick question, not sure where else to ask this:
Any chance that Harbaugh (the AD) is paying Partridge a ridiculous amount of money for just 1 month of being LB coach? What if they paid him $300k to be LB coach for this month, then have him go back to being the/a recruiting coordinator? At least he got a significant pay raise to keep him sorta happy, and he gets to continue being groomed by Harbaugh and the next DC/LB coach to eventually earn his way onto the actual coaching staff. This could have prevented Partridge from being poached (get it?) while continuing to have him progress as a coach. Just a thought I had and could be a reason why Partridge didn't leave, will be a short-term LB coach, and happy going back to being the/a recruiting coordinator.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:18 AM ^
With all the kids he's helping pull in from Jersey and the connections he has with them, I would say he should be here to stay on staff for a while. I would doubt he's going to bring them in just to leave.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:16 AM ^
But then again, Dylan Crawford has a TON of Michigan related retweets on his twitter lately. I'm so giddy, the suspense is killing me!
December 18th, 2015 at 8:20 AM ^