Profiles In Heroism: Tom Herman
Offensive Coordinator/ QB Coach Ohio State | |
---|---|
Age | 39 |
Exp. | 3rd year |
Record | N/A |
Previous Jobs | |
OC/QB @ Iowa St | 2009-11 |
OC/QB @ Rice | 2007-08 |
OC @ Texas St | 2005-06 |
WR @ Sam Houston | 2001-04 |
Playing Career | |
WR at Cal Lutheran, 1994-97 |
These again. We're skipping Harbaugh because it's not like you need to be told about Harbaugh. In the event M does hire him, he'll get one.
These are in approximate order of personal preference.
Previously: Dan Mullen, Jim Mora
I know, I know: must be head coach, if not head coach doom doom doom. To me that thinking is excessively narrow when you start talking about guys like Gary Pinkel and Steve Addazio. Many of the standout coaches in college football today started their head coaching careers at Power 5 schools—even major ones.
Here is a list of currently active college head coaches who had never been head coach before their appointment at a Power 5 school, in approximate groupings:
SUCCESSFUL OUTSIDERS
note: "outsider" includes people brought in from the outside as designated successors who went through a coach-in-waiting period like Fisher and Bielema.
Jimbo Fisher (Florida State), Bob Stoops (Oklahoma), Charlie Strong (Texas via Louisville), Dan Mullen (Mississippi State), Bret Bielema (Arkansas via Wisconsin), Bill Snyder (KSU), Mark Richt (UGA), Dana Holgorsen (WVU), Les Miles (LSU via Okie State), James Franklin (PSU via Vandy)
MEH
Steve Sarkisian (USC via Washington).
GROOMED INTERNAL CANDIDATES
Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State), Gary Patterson (TCU), Dabo Swinney (Clemson), Mark Helfrich (Oregon), Pat Fitzgerald (Northwestern), Kyle Whittingham (Utah), David Shaw (Stanford).
WE HIRE THESE GUYS BECAUSE WE HAVE FEW ALTERNATIVES
- Paul Chryst (Pitt), Scott Shafer (Syracuse), Paul Rhoads (ISU), Kliff Kingsbury (Texas Tech), Kyle Flood (Rutgers), Derek Mason (Vandy), Mike Leach (WSU via Texas Tech), Mark Stoops (Kentucky), Kevin Wilson (Indiana)
---------------------------------
This is biased in favor of good coaches because bad ones get fired, but this list contains 18 names before you even get to the "no alternative" section—approximately half of Power 5 existing head coaches had no experience with a top job when hired.- In addition, there are a number of current head coaches with very brief or almost irrelevant head coaching experience. Before Nick Saban was hired at MSU he had all of one year as a HC at Toledo; Gus Malzahn was at Arkansas State for a single year before Auburn scooped him up; Hugh Freeze was at the same place for a single year and had a couple years at something called Lambuth beforehand.
When you take the guys who were hired based on things other than their head coaching experience you have a collection of assistant-hirin' schools that are amongst the biggest in college: Florida State, Oklahoma, Georgia, Oklahoma State, Washington, Oregon, Clemson, Wisconsin, Auburn, Ole Miss.
Hiring a hot assistant is a valid option if the right guy is available. And Tom Herman has a case that he's the right guy.
[After THE JUMP: all about that case.]
Xs and Os Proficiency
This is not much in question after Ohio State's third string quarterback blasted Wisconsin even deeper into the stone age in which they comfortably reside. Ohio State had the best rushing game in the country last year; this year they lost their QB, RB, and four offensive linemen and experienced almost no dropoff. In a couple metrics they actually improved!
[Italicized years did not feature the coach in question and are provided for comparison. I grabbed the previous two years at OSU to compare the Herman offense to the one piloted by Tressel and a junior Terrelle Pryor as well as the one-off Bollman year.]
Year | Team | FEI | S&P | YPP |
---|---|---|---|---|
2006 | Rice | N/A | 69 | 70 |
2007 | Rice | 67 | 106 | 72 |
2008 | Rice | 7 | 23 | 18 |
2009 | Rice | 115 | 118 | 117 |
2008 | Iowa State | 74 | 105 | 55 |
2009 | Iowa State | 51 | 42 | 78 |
2010 | Iowa State | 79 | 83 | 111 |
2011 | Iowa State | 82 | 101 | 106 |
2012 | Iowa State | 58 | 65 | 100 |
2010 | Ohio State | 16 | 12 | 17 |
2011 | Ohio State | 65 | 65 | 80 |
2012 | Ohio State | 10 | 16 | 32 |
2013 | Ohio State | 3 | 2 | 5 |
2014 | Ohio State | 9 | 1 | 4 |
Herman came to D-I after a prolific tenure as Texas State's I-AA offensive coordinator and turned the 2008 Rice outfit into an explosive 10-3 outfit—Rice's head coach is a defensive guy.
That got him a move up to Iowa State, where his offense was kind of okay in year one and then statistically horrible. Iowa State was 90th in scoring offense in Herman's third year, worse in yards per play, and the advanced metrics agreed. His Wikipedia page tries to make it look nice by noting that he put up 41 in an inexplicable blowout of Texas Tech; it does not mention that the next week the Cyclones put up 13 on Kansas and lost to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl with the same number of points.
But Urban don't curr, so he gets hired at Ohio State. He had the twin advantages of not having a true freshman quarterback and not coaching under an interim, so a year-one surge was expected. For Ohio State to get instantly back to par with a very good Tressel offense featuring college superstar Terrelle Pryor was not, and the last two years he's taken OSU's offense into the stratosphere. He won the Broyles in a runaway this year.
Recruiting
Herman has a slightly better QB recruiting record than Al Borges
Data relatively thin what with his existence at Iowa State (no recruiting possible) and Ohio State (the prospects throw themselves at you), but Herman was named the 2013 Rivals Big Ten recruiter of the year. He live-tweeted a recruiting trip when he got caught in the Atlanta ice storm earlier this year; he ended up spending 19 hours in a car. That's some terrific battery discipline.
Herman's been tasked with Texas for the most part and has done major work there:
In the 10 years that Jim Tressel led Ohio State, the Buckeyes attracted the same amount of Lone Star State recruits to Columbus as Herman has in the past 10 months.
Those recruits included five-star LB Mike Mitchell, Dontre Wilson, and JT Barrett; Herman spent a decade coaching in Texas before moving to Iowa State.
CEO Stuff
None so far; he's coordinator.
It is worth noting that Urban Meyer coordinators have been top notch when offered head jobs. Dan Mullen just had a season where Mississippi State contended for a playoff spot; Charlie Strong made Louisville into a powerhouse and is now at Texas; Kyle Whittingham has been impressive in a decade at Utah; even Steve Addazio has done decently in two years at BC, though the jury is still out on him.
That's quite a hit rate, and indicates that Meyer both finds excellent coaches and lets them do their thing.
In addition, Herman is a really smart guy. He loathes the fact that a long time ago he signed up for MENSA and people continually bring this up, but it's true. He does party tricks:
Herman’s interview signified “the most intense 24 hours” of his life, he said. Meyer threw concepts at him to memorize and scolded him for using “should” instead of “will.” He wanted to see how Herman processed and relayed back information. He did not yet know that Herman could call an entire game on offense without glancing at a call sheet. Or that he would dominate on “Jeopardy!” and opine on everything from the Bible to ancient history to pop culture.
A couple years back Gerry DiNardo sat down with Herman after Herman's first season in Columbus to break down some plays; Herman comes off as friendly, eloquent, and totally in command of his material. He veritably radiates head coach.
Potential Catches
How much of his success is Meyer? Same question we asked with Mullen. Herman has steadily moved up the ranks, which speaks to how impressive he is in person, but before his OSU gig his main claim to fame was a single year at Rice. Like Mullen, I think there's a good case that Herman is a big reason for OSU's success here. Meyer was never a coordinator and his OCs call the plays; he provides a structure for the offense. Steve Addazio's tenure provides a counterpoint to people who assume any Urban OC is going to be good, and yeah Brantley is not Tebow but guess who has not recruited any Brantley-like QBs at OSU? The OC/QB coach.
Also, Herman's ability to get Miller, Barrett, and even Cardale Jones to perform over his tenure has been impressive.
But he's never been a head coach. It's a risk. You're fooling yourself if you think that just because head coach X has track record Y that your hypothetical other candidate is not a risk. See: Rodriguez, Rich. All kinds of head coaches move and lose their mojo.
The lack of experience does move Herman behind guys who have an obviously great track record like Stoops, but once you get past the slam-dunk level those advantages dim quickly. In the event that the Gundy/Patterson/Stoops level guys are off the table I'm not looking at Herman's relative lack of experience as much of a problem.
But what about the spread transition? It's a downer, but it's really not that different from what Michigan ran most of this year: inside zone. OSU runs it more vertically than most; it's still the same principles. The main problem is at QB, where there's not an obvious spread guy available. It's an issue. Michigan could scrape by with Morris or Malzone doing the Connor Shaw thing where he keeps 'em honest; it won't be ideal.
A hire like this would be hoping for a 20-year tenure, though, and some early bumps are happening no matter who gets the job unless you think a QB answer is going to pop up next year under a pro-style coach. Honestly, a spread that offers the potential to take hard decisions away from the QB is probably a better spot for Morris than your generic West Coast offense.
THAT WOMAN test. Herman passes; more generally, his demeanor and background fits with Michigan's culture. No one is going to deride this guy as a hillbilly.
Would He Take The Job?
Yes.
Overall Attractiveness
It's a swing for the fences… one I'd be fine with. If you can't beat 'em, steal 'em—Michigan learned that lesson a long time ago. Herman's done outstanding work, has all the recruiting ties you'd need now, and Urban Meyer coordinators have been some of the surest things available in coaching.
He's also on the upside, unlike a lot of the previously mentioned options. I would take him over many names mentioned in this search. Right now my list goes Harbaugh, Stoops, Herman.
December 10th, 2014 at 4:56 PM ^
This piece moved Herman up to my #2. Many things I hadn't had the chance to uncover about Herman in my own time have come to light here. If not Harbaugh... Herman, Herman, Herman.
December 10th, 2014 at 8:40 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 4:58 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 5:00 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 5:23 PM ^
Man...this would be kind of awesome.
December 11th, 2014 at 9:01 AM ^
And he would leave...why?
December 11th, 2014 at 9:10 AM ^
Under the stipulation that he would be the Head Coach In Waiting, therefore guaranteeing job security.
December 10th, 2014 at 4:58 PM ^
While I believe that Michigan would be slow to hire a spread-to-run type of coach and definitely would not hire a coordinator (both because they want someone who is neither an 'offensive' or 'defensive' guy, as Marcus Ray said, and because coordinators are somewhat unproved comodities), I've wanted Herman from the beginning.
I'm sure he's the one coordinator on the list and that they are "looking" at him, but not with the seriousness he deserves. His age and his intelligence alone should make him a prime candidate, but getting the guy whose offense did that to Wisconsin while at the same time stealing him from our hated rival: it's almost a no-brainer.
Harbough is definitely first, but I'd be as happy with Herman as with anyone else.
December 10th, 2014 at 4:59 PM ^
If M doesn't hire this guy, I hope somebody else does because I don't want him at Ohio State. While I'm sure Urban will just go find another great young assistant, anyone who can turn Cardale Jones into an effective QB is a force to be reckoned with.
December 10th, 2014 at 10:59 PM ^
Or, put differently, hiring him at Michigan has the extra benefit of depriving Ohio State of his services. Not a bad two-fer.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:00 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 5:02 PM ^
I guess he's a risk, but at the same time, what's the risk? Frankly, the program isn't even mediocre right now. What's he going to do, miss a bowl game? Oh, right. Guy can clearly coach, and he's an ace recruiter. I suppose the other risk is he's young enough that he could go supernova and go to the NFL. If he does that, it means we've been in the playoff probably more than once. Sign me up for that problem!
And the old crabby down in front crowd will LOVE LOVE LOVE the Mensa thing.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:12 PM ^
The risk may be that he doesn't move the needle enough to get fans to keep buying season tickets. The pressure of keeping the 100,000+ streak alive (and more generally, the athletic department profitable) will motivate Hackett to hire a big name. I'm not sure if Herman qualifies.
December 10th, 2014 at 9:09 PM ^
Schiano, Pinkel, Addazio or Beilema probably wouldn't move the needle enough either.
December 10th, 2014 at 11:07 PM ^
He does if we're playing the long game. Would some fans gripe at first if we hire someone who isn't already a name brand? Of course -- look at how Ohio State fans reacted to Tressel's hiring. But he seems as likely as nearly any other potential candidate to win games.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:03 PM ^
Excluding Meyer, OSU's recent success is most attributable to Ed Warriner, and Tom Herman, in that order. Herman would be a risky move but would pay off in a huge way down the line. It took Braxton a while to warm up to him and he flourished once he did so. Meyer doesn't call the plays; he listens to Herman's calls, and will bitch at Herman if a play call goes bad. He sometimes overrules him, but rarely.
December 10th, 2014 at 7:55 PM ^
I was puzzled by this post until I looked more closely at your avatar. I like Herman, he comes off as smart and flexible. The last time we hired a protege of the OSU coach, it worked out pretty well...
December 10th, 2014 at 5:05 PM ^
Would he take the job: Yes
I'm surprised it's that cut and dried.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:13 PM ^
Why wouldn't it be that simple? I assume his ultimate goal is to a head coach, and unlike a guy like Narduzzi I would think he bears no significant ill-will towards Michigan beyond what he has to as an OSU coach. He has only been there 3 years after spending time in Texas with a few years at Iowa State, if a major program like Michigan offered him the job why wouldn't he take it?
December 10th, 2014 at 7:48 PM ^
respect from decades-long adversaries who were equal. UM obviously isn't OSU's equal right now, but they can be with the right coach.
MSU-UM is just a flat out hatefest.There is no respect there.
December 11th, 2014 at 4:25 PM ^
Even if you take out the obvious promotion and career progression, he would get about a 300% pay raise, or more.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:14 PM ^
I really like Herman and think he will be a very good head coach one day, but question about Herman being number 3 after Harbaugh and Stoops. Isn't Dan Mullen just Herman with some actual years of head coaching experience?
I believe requiring prior coaching experience limits your candidate list for no reason and I know there are people around these parts who say Mullen isn't coming but don't you have to make him say no before you move on to Herman?
December 10th, 2014 at 5:19 PM ^
Brian obviously likes both, but reading the two posts make me think Herman has the bigger upside. Either will be a risk, though...
December 10th, 2014 at 6:53 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 8:25 PM ^
I don't really put those as major advantages he has over Herman. At Florida Meyer had defenses led by Greg Mattison and Charlie Strong, he hasn't had those at OSU so far. Those are things outside of the OC's control.
December 11th, 2014 at 4:26 PM ^
Sure. But one guy has rings to flaunt, and another doesn't.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:11 PM ^
This is the right man..........................
December 10th, 2014 at 5:11 PM ^
In my profile of Herman, I said the transition costs would be "moderate," because all you really need to do in order to switch from our scheme to theirs is spread the WRs out, run shotgun as default and give the QB 6-12 carries/game. Yes there are lots of subtleties missing there--consequential ones, even, like WR blocking, use of the slot position for pop passes, etc.. But it isn't as big a shift as we undertook from 2007 to 2008, or how big a shift it would be if we were hiring, say, Scott Frost.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:13 PM ^
NOOOOOOOOOOOO
December 11th, 2014 at 12:20 PM ^
This is a very compelling argument in favor of Herman.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:16 PM ^
My biggest is concern is that he won't get a sniff, even if Harbaugh falls through.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:18 PM ^
Aside from Harbaugh there really arent any safe options (and my cynicism has prepared me to doubt even Harbaugh). With that in mind, Im prepared for the "Fuck it" approach to a second option and take the risk of picking Herman up. We've seen stretches of 10 and 2 seasons and we've seen the steady decline to mediocrity. Time to take the plunge and do something drastic.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:18 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
December 10th, 2014 at 5:41 PM ^
Per Sam: The players expressed their concern to Hackett that they won't fit the scheme of a new coach.
Per Ray (who is on the "advisory committee" for the search): Offensive style - especially with regard to fit for the current roster - will be taken into account, but no one has been excluded at this point because they run a given style.
December 10th, 2014 at 10:46 PM ^
thank you for this piece of information. Ive avoided the WTKA podcast as of late bc the coaching speculation is so out of hand. This is certainly one bit of useful information.
December 10th, 2014 at 10:45 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 5:22 PM ^
We need to jump on this guy before another B1G school does. (If Harbaugh says no)
I like offensive minded head coaches which is why I'd put him in front of Narduzzi.
I have no problem going with an OC w/o head coaching experience. He'll get experience rather quickly.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:50 PM ^
With the lack of attractive and acquireable options beyond the Harbaugh/Stoops tier, a high upside college coordinator would be the best case scenario and Herman is at least as attractive as anyone else.
That said, the chances of Michigan picking him seem minute. Regardless of the offensive philosophy, I think DeBoard/Hackett would view Herman as a guy who might crater the defense a la Rodriguez. IMO they'll pick an Addazio/Schiano before they go for a Herman/Narduzzi. I would love to be wrong.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:33 PM ^
December 11th, 2014 at 9:10 AM ^
I love me some Herman, but you can't seriously think he's on the same plane as Stoops, who is ALREADY one of the top 5 coaches in the country. I mean, that's the absolute best case scenario for Herman. Stoops is already there.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:35 PM ^
More importantly, I know Brian likes to say coaches resort to who they are in times of crisis (and I agree with that) and if there's one nitpick of Herman it's that he resorts to Braxton left, Braxton right, Braxton up the middle when under duress. Most of 2012, The B1G title MSU game, the Orange Bowl and this year's Penn State game (albeit with Barrett) are good examples of Herman's tendency to overuse QB runs and refuse to trust the QB's arm or the RB (I mean jesus, 4th and one, Hyde has 7 ypc against MSU right now and you run a QB sweep wide). Granted I'm sure he has his reasons, but OSU's two best offensive efforts this year occured when he allowed JT or Cardale to throw. He went high risk/high reward and it paid off. I know he knows he can beat Penn State chugging along, but sometimes OSU fans wish he'd trust his QB to throw more. That being said, I'd be sad to lose him strictly because of the QB coaching success. That's more valuable than his playcalling, I generally feel it's a lot easier to find a guy who can call plays well than it is to find a guy who coaches QBs well.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:04 PM ^
The ability to develop QBs is a pretty great trait for a coach, at the risk of stating the obvious.
December 11th, 2014 at 10:54 PM ^
Dude, what are you doing? Stop selling him to the opposition! We need to tell them things like "Herman loves to sing along with Josh Groban songs."
And yeah, his QB development seems freakishly good. Though also give some credit to Urban, who has set up a program where all the players study plays and techniques like they're in football grad school.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:41 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 5:44 PM ^
I'd rather take a calculated risk in hiring a 39 year old assistant than brining in Miles, who's mostly a known quantity but is in the twilight of his career, with "issues". I can't take these coaching changes every 3-4 years.
December 10th, 2014 at 5:52 PM ^
If Hackett has told the players they will have a head coach by 5 January and he considers Harbaugh to be a toss-up or slight favorite at best (by no means a lock) is it fair to assume: 1. He has a plan B already lined up in the event that Harbaugh declines his offer and 2. His plan B is not coaching on an NCAA playoff team in the midst of national championship contention?
December 10th, 2014 at 9:24 PM ^
I just think it means that he'll know by late Dec. whether Harbaugh is going to take the job or not and after that point, having talked with a lot of Plan B's, it wouldn't take more than one week to make the hire. Heck, it didn't take Nebraska or Oregon State long.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:03 PM ^
behind Harbaugh, of course.
No matter what BuckeyeJonRoss says.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:10 PM ^
Hiring this guy would be a potential disaster for the program, and the program does not need another disaster. If he were OC at say...UCLA or somewhere, he would not even be mentioned in this discussion. Im not sure why Brian is so enamored with him. It is Urban's team and Urban's offense. Please dont hire this guy Michigan.
December 10th, 2014 at 7:27 PM ^
Totally agree. This looks like an extremely high risk candidate with a lottery chance of a big reward. I'd take Jim Tressel over Herman if we want to poach an Ohio guy.
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