Comparing UM Freshmen QBs
I wanted to try to put Steven Threet’s performance thus far into perspective. Some people think he’s a stiff who lathers his hands in butter before taking a snap. Others see him as a competent young QB who can hold his own despite having the deck stacked against him with the depth chart on offense. He’s probably somewhere in between….so let’s find out. One of my motivations has been that I’ve sensed Brian at MGoBlog souring on him a lot in the past couple of weeks. Obviously he isn’t Pat White in this offense, but he isn’t Ryan Mallett either. Let me explain…..
I set out to compare his performance to other Michigan freshman quarterbacks. It is at this point, before even looking at a stat, where you can really understand Threet’s situation. Freshman aren’t supposed to play at that position. No matter how good you are in high school, you’re not ready to start at a big-time college program. Ask Jimmy Clausen. Ask Ryan Mallett. You can argue that Threet is a RED-shirt freshman and not a TRUE freshman, but since graduating college he’s spent a few months at Georgia Tech, a few months under Lloyd Carr, and a few months under Rodriguez. Not exactly a masters course in preparation for this season.
There are only two circumstances where a freshman QB is likely to succeed:
- He’s a freakish athlete and can rely on his athleticism to make up for his mental and physical deficiencies. Pryor at OSU falls into this category. His passing stats are very modest and they’re keeping things really simple. He uses his legs to overcome his passing limitations.
- He’s surrounded by a talented, veteran team. This is the Chad Henne category. We saw in Henne’s sophomore year that he wasn’t the second coming of John Elway that we saw his freshman year. Why? Braylon Edwards. Henne knew that if he threw it near Braylon, he was likely to have a chance to catch it – no matter how mediocre the throw was. To some extent this applies to Pryor as well since he is starting behind a veteran offensive line with a Heisman quality RB.
Steven Threet has neither luxury. But how does he compare to other freshman QB’s? If someone can dig up NCAA statistics from all schools it would be really interesting. I took on just Michigan QB’s. And it wasn’t difficult – they barely play as freshman. At this point through 7 games Threet has thrown the second most passes of any freshman QB that I could find in the recent history of the school. Let’s look at them:
Season |
Name |
GP |
ATT |
COMP |
PCT |
TD |
INT |
YDS |
Y/A |
2008 |
Steven Threet |
7 |
145 |
76 |
52.4 |
6 |
3 |
792 |
5.46 |
2007 |
Ryan Mallett |
10 |
141 |
61 |
43.3 |
7 |
5 |
892 |
6.33 |
2004 |
Chad Henne |
12 |
399 |
240 |
60.2 |
25 |
12 |
2743 |
6.87 |
2000 |
John Navarre |
5 |
77 |
40 |
51.9 |
8 |
1 |
583 |
7.57 |
1995 |
Scott Dreisbach |
4 |
106 |
56 |
52.8 |
3 |
3 |
850 |
8.02 |
1989 |
Elvis Grbac |
8 |
116 |
73 |
62.9 |
8 |
3 |
824 |
7.10 |
I was surprised at Navarre’s stats. I remember him being horrible as a redshirt freshman and single-handedly giving away the UCLA game. But his stats aren’t horrible. Obviously Henne is on a plane all of his own, though his Y/A were lower than I expected considering the Braylon factor. Ryan Mallett sure was terrible, wasn’t he?
If I’m not mistaken, Threet is the first one of those players to be given the job out of necessity rather than due to an injury to a more experienced player, though I can’t remember Grbac’s situation. I also mentioned the lack of a surrounding cast. Here’s another chart comparing those QB’s.
Year |
Name |
Top Offensive Skill Players |
|
|
|
2008 |
Steven Threet |
Matthews (Jr), Odoms (Fr), Stonum (Fr), McGuffie (Fr), Minor (Jr) |
|||
2007 |
Ryan Mallett |
Manningham (Jr), Arrington (Jr), Hart (Sr), Matthews (So), Minor (So) |
|||
2004 |
Chad Henne |
Edwards (Sr), Avant (Jr), Breaston (So), Hart (Fr) |
|||
2000 |
John Navarre |
Thomas (Sr), Terrell (Jr), Walker (Jr), Perry (Fr) |
|||
1995 |
Scott Dreisbach |
Biakabatuka (Jr), Toomer (Sr), Hayes (Sr), Riemersma (Sr) |
|||
1989 |
Elvis Grbac |
McMurtry (Sr), Calloway (Sr), Boles (Jr), Hoard (Jr), Bunch (Jr), Howard (Fr), Alexander (Fr) |
Wow, nostalgia. I’m starting to wonder if Arrington’s departure hurt this offense more than anyone else.
I’m going to limit the amount of conclusions I draw from this information and leave it open to interpretation. Obviously missing from this data are the number of fumbles and any rushing statistics.
My opinion from this information and from watching the games is this – Threet is not a very good quarterback right now, but he’s not a bad one either. Unlike some areas of the team he is showing progress from week-to-week and compares favorably to other freshmen at his position. The quarterback position is a problem for the team, but the problem is mostly due to a lack of depth and experience – not directly because Steven Threet is incapable of leading the team to victory. Threet is raw and inconsistent, but he’s competent and should develop into a solid QB in time. There is little in my limited analysis that shows he’s worse than most of those other guys. What Michigan lacks is a capable experienced QB (Jason Forcier?) who could hold down the fort this season.
Let’s give Threet time and the benefit of the doubt…….and do whatever we can to keep Sheridan off the field.
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:30 AM ^
You asked about Grbac.
The starter at QB that year was Micheal Taylor. Taylor got hurt in the opener vs ND (the famous 1 vs 2 game with, sigh, Rocket returning those 2 kicks).
Grbac came into the second half of that game, and he led a couple of TD drives. He started, I believe, at least the next two, if not 3 games, before Taylor got healty and returned to the lineup.
Grbac's first start was at UCLA in a primetime national TV game. He brought Michigan from down 13 (thats a guess, it might have been less points, but we needed a score, onsides kick recovery and another score to win) to win in the fourth quarter.
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:59 AM ^
I think they were down 23-14 before the comeback. Late touchdown, onside kick and field goal sounds right. I think Grbac should have played instead of Taylor in the Rose Bowl that year; Taylor's shoulder was hurt a bit and he couldn't throw as well as he had earlier in the year. As a result the offense was pretty one-dimensional and we lost 17-10.
By the way, no love for Rick Leach? Sure, he was more of an option quarterback in the years before Bo discovered the pass, but I believe he was the first freshman to start at QB for Michigan.
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:03 AM ^
A key point in that UCLA game was a blocked PAT when both Vada Murray and Tripp Welborne skied high to share the block.
There was no OT back then, and that miss helped put Michigan in a position to win late, rather than just tie it.
I dont remember a whole lot of talk in the lead up to that year's RB about Taylor's shoulder, but you are probably right.....the O was pretty stagnant that game, and I had forgotten that Taylor might have been dinged up.
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:08 PM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:09 AM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:16 AM ^
You're right, I should have dug deeper into the past and looked up Leach. Looking at them now you can see what a different time it was back then. He played in all 12 games and yet only threw 100 passes. From a pure passing standpoint by today's standards (which obviously isn't fair) he was flat out terrible....horrible in fact. But what is missing is his rushing totals, which weren't bad.
Passing.....
ATT COMP PCT TD INT YDS Y/A
100 32 32.0% 3 12 680 6.80
Rushing.....
113 - 552 - 4.9 - 5 TD
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:51 AM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:48 AM ^
When Leach had to pass early in his career he was terrible. If I remember correctly (and I was 9 at the time), his interceptions were a key factor in the 1975 loss to OSU. The next year, they beat Ohio State 22-0 without a completion. By the end of his career, though, he was adequate.
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:19 AM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:55 AM ^
I can say that some of the greatest OL's in the history of the program were in the late 1980s, early 1990s.....so that definetly helped Elvis out a lot.
I think Navarre had a great one as well.
However, its been steadily declining ever since We all know that. I'm up for a counter argument, but without even looking at the starting lineups, I'd say Elvis and Navarre played with better OLs than say Henne, Mallet and, of course, Threet did as Frosh.
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:52 AM ^
Here's the breakdown of the O-lines for each:
year | player | position | yr | yrs as starter | nfl - yrs in |
89 | Dohring | LT | Sr | 4th | Y - 1 |
Dingman | LG | Jr | 3rd | N | |
Everitt | C | So | 1st | Y - 7 | |
Elliott | RG | Jr | 1st | Y - 4 | |
Skrepenak | RT | Jr | 3rd | Y - 5 | |
95 | Runyan | LT | Sr | 3rd | Y - 12 |
Adami | LG | Jr | 1st | N | |
Payne | C | Sr | 2nd | Y - 1 | |
Marinaro | RG | Sr | 3rd | N | |
Jansen | RT | So | 1st | Y - 8 | |
2000 | Backus | LT | Sr | 4th | Y - 7 |
Hutchinson | LG | Sr | 4th | Y - 7 | |
Brandt | C | Sr | 3rd | Y - 2 | |
Goodwin | RG | Sr | 1st | Y - 6 | |
Williams | RT | Sr | 1st | Y - 7 | |
2004 | Stevanich | LT | Sr | 2nd | N |
Riley | LG | Jr | 1st | N | |
Baas | C | Sr | 3rd | Y - 3 | |
Lentz | RG | Sr | 2nd | N | |
Long | RT | So | 1st | Y - 1 | |
2007 | Long | LT | Sr | 3rd | Y - 1 |
Boren | LG | So | 1st | ? | |
Kraus | C | Sr | 3rd | Y - 1 | |
Ciulla | RG | Jr | 1st | ? | |
Schilling | RT | Fr | 1st | ? | |
2008 | Ortmann | LT | Jr | 1st | ? |
MacAvoy | LG | Jr | 1st | ? | |
Molk | C | Fr | 1st | ? | |
Moosman | RG | Jr | 1st | ? | |
Schilling | RT | So | 2nd | ? |
Navarre had the best by far (if you consider NFL guys as best). And obviously Threet has most inexperienced (and of course there is no way to judge quality based on NFL status)
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:56 AM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:22 PM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:20 AM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:41 AM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:24 PM ^
I just spent the last hour trying to find the OL information you posted. And what I found was nothing compared to the level of detail you put together. Nice! How did you find that stuff? Is there a good site out there for it? The 2000 line was incredible, though the 1995 line wasn't bad either with Runyan and Jansen at the tackles and Payne in the middle.
I was thinking of posing this question to people: "Which of these players that could have stayed this season would have helped the team the most?"
-- Adrian Arrington
-- Justin Boren
-- Ryan Mallett
-- Mario Manningham
Manningham was leaving no matter what so that's not really applicable. Boren would help for sure, but how much? I don't think Mallett was much better than Threet and was a pain in the ass. Personally, I'd pick Arrington - quality veteran who catches everything and allows Stonum to develop.
(I also think Jason Forcier would be really important to this team, but had he known what was going to happen this season he would have stayed two years ago instead of going to Stanford so that's not really fair.)
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:33 PM ^
I went a couple different places. For rosters and depth charts: http://bentley.umich.edu/athdept/football/football.htm. For NFL info: http://www.databasefootball.com/players/bycollege.htm?sch=University+of+Michigan.
I still believe that if all the linemen returned that could, we'd be much better off. Mallett would've been nice to have too, but I'm not sure he would've put forth the effort.
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:39 PM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:54 PM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 2:09 PM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 2:35 PM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:25 PM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:43 PM ^
Right - some QB's make mistakes, and the mistake is limited to that. Unfortunately for Threet he made a mistake (the pick-six against WVU) that basically single-handedly lost the game. That said - I don't think it's an inherent "unclutchness" problem - he happened to make that throw at about the most inopportune time possible. He is an EXTREMELY inconsistent QB, fluctuating from good to bad from throw to throw, the fact that his error there came at a key time is, I think, pure chance.
That said, as has been proven on this thread - he's really not performing any worse than any other freshman QB we've had. He makes, in general, pretty good decisions (execution is a little more dodgy) - there isn't a reason he can't become a perfectly solid QB for Michigan.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:53 PM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:08 PM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 7:58 PM ^
October 24th, 2008 at 9:38 AM ^
October 24th, 2008 at 9:20 AM ^
October 24th, 2008 at 2:28 PM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:33 PM ^
One point on the QB numbers - back in the early '90's we ran the ball so much, and so effectively, that it was much easier to be efficient in the passing game. If you look at the run/pass ratio at Michigan - Brian has done this at some point, I believe - you'll see it rising steadily from when we first starting throwing with Grbac after Taylor got hurt (as described above).
The increased proportion of passes to runs make it harder to maintain the same level of efficiency on a per-pass basis, which we need to consider when evaluating the stats over different years.
October 24th, 2008 at 9:21 AM ^
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