Hokepoints: Bracketology Because It's Bracketology Week 2014
Site note: As with last year, we'll be having a basketballgasm liveblog for Day 1 of the tournament, shifting to the hockey game at 3, and then going through the Round 1 matchup with Wofford. DraftStreet, whose 40k tourney is still filling up (as of this morning ~1600 of the 2000 spots are filled), is sponsoring, and a few former players will be joining us to promote the Go Blue Bowl.
Speaking of filling things, you're probably filling your brackets right now, so here's my now-annual post and tool for helping with that. Last year was the first since 2000 that I didn't win at least my buy-in back. Things I use:
The Power Rank (friend of the blog Ed Feng)'s interactive bracket. Ed is one of the cutting-edge guys in sports analytics. On his tool if you hover over any team you can see their probabilities to reach each round, or hover over a spot in the circular bracket to see every team's likelihood of getting there. Michigan is 58% to reach the Sweet 16; from there every game is virtually a toss-up.
The Wall Street Journal's blind comparison. They show you two profiles and say a little about the team, and you make your pick presumably without bias, though you can often figure out exactly who they're talking about:
"Occasionally Naps on Defense" would be a good name for our band.
Bracket Science's Bracketmaster tool. Peter Tiernan's blog is a standard for following bubble teams and gets things right that others don't (like Louisville as a 4 seed). The Bracketmaster+ tool lets you get into data going back to 1985. If you're a member it gets deeper but non-members can use it to do things like show Beilein's Michigan teams in the tournament:
Poologic Tool. This helps you decide how many upsets to pick based on the size of your office pool (in a large pool it's best to be the only one with a certain champ). Also you can calculate ROI on various picks.
My tool (download the excel sheet) Which uses straight-up Kenpom scores and provides a weak confidence score based on the premise that 16 seeds never beat 1 seeds. I also added injuries for each team. Looks like this:
What I do is normalize the closest 16-1 matchup (Wichita St vs. Cal Poly) as 100% for the 1 seed to win, set that as the "chaos factor," and use the KenPom ratings to percentile everyone else's games into a confidence number. Then I roll through anything under 70% and decide if my knowledge of those teams might justify taking the under.
General tips:
If you're in a big pool, run multiple brackets, each with carefully selected upsets.There's no such thing as an NCAA tournament without lots of big upsets and at least one surprising run. The 1 seeds all made it to the Final Four just once. If you submit one milksop bracket you're up against every other milksop bracket and will get beat by the one crazy guy who had LSU going to the Elite 8 or something. Hitting on a carefully selected upset that rearranges a bracket and lets you ride a different high seed to the Final Four is the most typical route to a win.
If you're in a small pool, play conservative. One or two points won't usually make a difference in a small pool, but the likelihood of something crazy like that one guy's wife who picks based on the cuteness factor of mascots winning is cut down so you don't need to take risks to get ahead.
Pick the upsets the most carefully. I love picking 6-11 upsets because if you get it wrong they're bound to get wiped out by the 3 anyway. If you roll the dice on a 3-seed or lower losing early though, you'll feel like an idiot as the rest of your pool collects the easy points. A tournament without upsets never happens, but neither does a tournament with all the upsets. You can totally undo a great pick with a terrible one elsewhere.
Get value for your upsets. Know who's in your pool and the inefficiencies. This year, those of you in Michigan are facing the mother of all inefficiencies in that Spartan fans are bound to submit extra brackets just to have one that has State going all the way. Fans will generally take their favorite team to go two rounds later than they really belong and conference teams to go a round further. This is an inefficiency (even if MSU looked like they could dominate the tourney on Sunday).
Be really really lucky. This is really the only rule.
March 18th, 2014 at 11:08 AM ^
Obviously the correct answer is to pick Michigan all the way, just curious game theory-wise what the options are.
March 18th, 2014 at 11:42 AM ^
Basically depends on how confident you are that you can outplay your pool mates on the rest of the bracket. Do they have other inefficiencies? Like are they such homers that they will pick Sparty and Ohio to lose their first round games?
The best bet might be to pick Michigan to lose in the final four and focus on picking the right champion. An early michigan loss won't hurt you too bad because of the homers, and picking the right champ will elevate you over most of the homers.
March 18th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^
March 19th, 2014 at 12:06 AM ^
March 18th, 2014 at 11:40 AM ^
Im 54 and played in so many pools through the years at work and with friends I couldnt even begin to guess how many I've been in. But I do know that the ONLY one I won was when I filled out a bracket, at about 11:55am on Thursday morning, giving it virtually zero thought to the selections.
I also know that about five or six years ago my daughter, who knows absolutely NOTHING about basketball on any level, finished in the top 10 of all people submitting an entry through some Facebook bracket challenge that had well over 50,000 entries. And she made her selections based on: color of uniforms she liked and their team name.
There's a reason there's a Billion dollar prize out there for a perfect bracket. It seems like the more you know about the game itself the less likely you are to get all the picks right.
March 18th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
I used to participate in college sports pools and 2 years ago my wife wanted to fill out a sheet so of course she did. I, being the so-called expert, started to tell her that you can't pick that team they are a 21 point underdog and so on. She then proceeded to select the most illogical picks you could imagine. Well you know how the story ends, she won the pool. The only decent pick she made was Michigan and her logic was well that was her hometown so she had to pick them. I don't do pools anymore...
two years ago we lost in the first round. how was that a good pick?
love,
jdon
March 18th, 2014 at 12:05 PM ^
My dog has won the family bracket challenge three years running. The picks are chosen by my Mom who "asks" the dog which team he wants to win.
Brother texted me yesterday saying "Mom has MSU beating the Cincinatti Bengals."
March 18th, 2014 at 12:17 PM ^
I wait for this post every year.
The info on Spartan injuries is especially helpful!
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