Quick look at Washington as Playoff Matchup
Good for Washington winning a 2nd time over Oregon. Oregon with the #1 SP+ offense scored 31 points agains Washington's 42nd ranked defense. Michigan scored 30 points against the #3 defense. Washington's offense is 5th which sounds scary but IMHO they are less challenging than OSU's at least on a talent basis.
Washington is 11th in SP+ while Michigan is 1st. SP+ indicates that Michigan should win this game by 14.1 points. Yes I know, TCU vibes all over again. U of M coaches aren't perfect but they are smart and won't repeat the TCU mistakes.
Predicted CFB Playoff matchups:
Georgia vs Florida State
Michigan vs Washington
Georgia vs Michigan
If this happens it will be the first CFP with every team without being undefeated!
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
i am so oooolllldddd. i have a vision of a sunny saturday, attending with a buddy of mine who got tickets through his work. i was living in socal at the time and had only been to a couple of rose bowl games which were very well attended. and of course as a michigan grad every michigan game was 106k attendance. thus the shock when two ranked teams faced off in the rose bowl and it was 1/2 to 2/3rds full. and it might've been that UCLA was ranked #1 but WSU was lower ranked.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:08 AM ^
There's been too much blame put on the coaches for the TCU loss.
JJ threw two pick-sixes. Not coaching.
The blundered TD call. Not coaching.
The fumble at the goal line. Not coaching.
It's been almost a year, but my recollection is that there was a piece on the blog showing that the defensive schemes were sound...but there were multiple execution errors on the part of the players.
Michigan had more yards than TCU, more first downs, won the TOP battle.
It is very difficult to win a game when you give up two pick-sixes.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
Michigan had to change its entire offensive game plan late in the first half to catch back up. The fact that they did catch up, and even took the lead, should tell you that the coaches had a shit game plan to start with and stuck with it too long. Start the game by taking what they were giving, and Michigan walks away with a fairly easy win.
You can blame the players if you want to, but I'll put more blame on the guys that set them up in an early hole.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
Got within three of the lead, before giving up that devastating long TD on the drag route...
But yeah, one can blame the pick-sixes, but yeah, the offensive game plan against TCU sucked. Watching Georgia *easily* hang 60+ on them while doing the things we took too long to implement, namely runs to the edge and play-action shots, was very frustrating.
There were also the idiotic play-calls at the goal-line that collectively added up to another 14+ point swing. Why not run an RPO with JJ, the actual QB, instead of basically doing the same with Loveland? Why not hand-off to Mullings out of a conventional I-form instead of from an FB-dive he might not have repped enough?
Anyway, that all has been litigated to death. I have confidence, for the most part, that the coaches have learned their lessons. They haven't done any cutesy bullshit near the goal-line all season long. The curious relative lack of play-action still concerns though, as does the bizarre refusal to throw Donovan Edwards a conventional screen-pass out of the backfield. Let us hope!
December 2nd, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
I hate the "it's all on the players" trope. It's just flat out wrong sometimes.
The bad call on the TD -- yep, that's on the refs.
But the fumble following that? Yes, Mullings physically fumbled the ball, he's the one that put it on the ground. BUT, it's on the coaches for putting him, a converted LB with very little experience carrying the ball, in that position. It didn't fool anyone, and he was not as experienced at ball security. The fault there is on the coaches.
The pick-sixes.....first of all, terrible luck, and that's not on anyone. BUT, Michigan's pass game was very simplified in 2022. On the one late throw to the flat, the TCU CB studied the tape, and he pretty much knew that JJ was throwing short and to the outside. Easy to jump that route. (Incidentally, this is very similar to what Johnson did against OSU on his INT.) Anyway, I put at least some of the pick-six issue on the coaches.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:13 AM ^
Whatever happens today, we’re gonna have a hell of a 1st round matchup. Dammit!
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
Penix throws a very nice ball from a clean pocket. I don't think he will have that luxury if they play M or Georgia. Not sure the Washington o line will hold up and he's going to see plenty of pressure in his face. Should be a fun match up. It's playoff football. Everyone is good.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
I haven’t watched Washington this year but everyone had been picking Oregon to beat them despite Washington winning the first matchup. How Oregon was the most dangerous team. I’m think Washington is very good.
beat Iowa!
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
Washington is 13-0 in the best conference in the country. Discounting them is dumb.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
It seems every team Michigan plays gets discounted on this website. Washington is a darn good team and it should be a heck of a game.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:31 AM ^
Getting a bit ahead of yourself.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
Ill keep beating this horse till im wrong, but I don't see FSU making the playoff. If they end up undefeated the playoff committee will pick apart their resume to slide Texas in instead or even UGA & Bama in a chaos scenario.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
Washington is the worst matchup for Michigan defense. UGA defense is the worst matchup for Michigan offense. It's likely Michigan will face both teams in the playoff.
Washington offense is better than OSU because they have a great QB in Penix who can sling it all over the field and Michigan secondary is suspect outside of Will Johnson. They really spread you out and attack vertically which is something that Michigan struggled with.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
Washington offense could be better then Ohio State, but that defense isn't close to OSU and Michigan scored 30 points on them
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
I don't get TCU vibes out of Washington. They were the best team in arguably the strongest conference top to bottom. No chance in hell Michigan overlooks Washington, if that would be our next opponent after beating Iowa of course.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
I really hope the favorites take care of business today because it'll be funny to hear people bitch about OSU getting in but they rooted for Oregon to lose, which would've kept Oregon and Washington ahead of OSU.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:23 AM ^
If all the favorites win then the CFP is UGA, UM, UW and FSU or Texas. The only chalk OSU needs is Georgia.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:51 AM ^
Big diff with Washington vs comparing to OSU: QB.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:10 AM ^
I thought that both Washington and Oregon looked a step slower than Michigan, Ohio State et al. I also thought that there was a lack of physicality compared to a Big Ten match.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:33 AM ^
I think Oregon would give Michigan a tougher challenge. Oregon's offense is top 2 in the country, and their defense is top 15, while Washington's offense is top 15 and defense is top 60. Albeit Washington's offense may give Michigan's defense some trouble, I think Michigan can hold them to around 24 points because Oregon's defense actually played pretty well against Penix and his crew, and they are not as good as Michigan's is. I think Michigan's offense can score around 34 points against Washington's not so good defense. Michigan scored 30 against Ohio State's defense and they are #3 in the country on that side of the ball, so scoring more than that against Washington should not be very difficult.
Michigan possibly playing against Washington in the college football playoffs, of course, hinges on them beating Iowa and some other factors falling into place.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
If memory serves, one of the commentators who saw both Oregon and Michigan play said that he thought Oregon was absolutely the best team in the country. The betting line was heavily in Oregon's favor.
Turns out, there was a better team in their conference, Washington. The prognosticators who jumped on the Oregon bandwagon were wrong.
Consider this possibility:
Maybe the Pac 12 isn't the conference with the strongest teams this year. Oregon beat Colorado - hyped game, but no big deal, it turns out. USC - also hyped but no big deal. Utah, again, not all that. Oregon State and Washington State are good, not great teams. Cal, Arizona State, and Stanford? I mean...could Oregon State or Washington State beat Ohio State or even Penn State?
Obviously Washington is a very, very good football team. Are they on the level of Ohio State? That remains to be seen, but I feel pretty confident that JJ is a great QB, at least equal to Penix, and if he has a good day, we win.
On balance, I feel pretty confident if we have to play UW, and I doubt our guys are afraid to play anyone.
December 2nd, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^
Pac-12 is top to bottom the strongest conference in the country. They have multiple quality teams while B1G only has 2 quality teams. PSU would be middle of the road team in the Pac-12. Washington is battle tested while Michigan is only tested once which is OSU.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
SP+ indicates that Michigan should win this game by 14.1 points.
I think we're probably the better team, but this stuff is much harder to quantify than fans want to believe. There are like 130 FBS teams and we've played 12 of them. We have exactly one common opponent (Sparty) with Washington, and we both destroyed Sparty, so that tells us very little. We're mostly going into this game blind.
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
All these games, whoever we play , will come down to if JJ is fully healthy and unlocked. If He is, we beat any team with a little cushion . If He is limited in run game, yes we probably still win but those games will be the butt pucker type like OSU
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
I’ve watched a lot of UW football this year, and believe me they are a lot more dangerous on offense than OSU (or anyone we’ve played).
Actually they are more like previous OSU teams that spread you out and put their best athletic playmakers in space. But also like recent OSU teams, their defense can be had.
We can beat them, but it will be a different kind of challenge than we’ve faced this year.
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
If Bama beats UGA then Michigan is going to be playing Bama and not UW. Washington is far from a lock.
Michigan beats UW by double digits and the game never feels close.
UW offense is not better than Ohio's. They have nowhere near the explosive athletes Ohio does. Their line isn't as good. UW won't be able to run. Penix is not the same player he was at Indiana. He is no longer a dual threat after his injuries. He will get mauled.
UW offense should be judged by PAC defenses. Those same defenses made Bo Nix a Heisman candidate. Perspective. Sort of the reverse argument of the BIG defenses looking good against bad offenses.
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:41 PM ^
If M plays UW, to beat them you need good DTs and a lot of them, that’s how you beat Penix. Collapse the pocket quick and he struggles …he does not like to run.
And we all know him well enough from Indiana days. Can’t let him sit back there, our Dline is built to hammer their offensive style.
RB is good, not a burner , but powerful dude. Can get the YAC
Odunze is legit , not as fast as Marvin but big boy. But again , the way they played osu, and how they have been playing D all year , setup wise, built to give UW lots of issues.
I’d say a spread around -10 M makes sense.