MGoPodcast 15.11: We Only Have 11 Guys
2 hour and 15 minutes
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1. Offense vs Penn State
Starts at 1:00
Michigan runs for 36 straight minutes of this game and still Penn State's defensive ends get out of their rushing lanes. Karsen Barnhart gets beat on three of the first four passes and Michigan decides "we're not going to do that anymore". The vibes were immaculate, though. The only way Michigan loses this game is by turning the ball over (fumble luck was on Michigan's side this game). Do you remember what JJ's one incompletion was? The implications of Penn State's pass rush probably doesn't apply that much to the Ohio State game. The noise of Beaver Stadium does play a factor. Would you still recruit Ryan Mallet in today's game? Anyone who can't get out of the pocket is not a modern Quarterback. Michigan should've just held up a giant board that said "run".
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Defense vs Penn State
Starts at 38:57
Shall we play the Drew Allar completion game? What do Sean Clifford and Drew Allar really have in common? Neither have had a functional offensive line. Drew Allar is 70% in a clean pocket and about 38% when under pressure. There was a lot of Cam Goode in this game. There was never really a point where you thought Michigan should change their defense in order to win this game. KENNETH GRANT RUNNING, MY GOD. Michigan was tipping off what they were doing on defense a lot.
3. Hot Takes, Game Theory, and Special Teams
Starts at 1:08:10
Takes hotter than Penn State defensive linemen on 3rd and 11. We have shirts. Thank you, James Franklin, for giving us content for this segment! Penn State going for it on 4th and 6 in the 4th quarter was probably not a good idea. The first two point conversion was definitely not a good idea. Going for two is opening the box and finding out if the cat is dead or alive. Officiating wasn't perfect but also didn't feel biased.
4. Around the Big Ten with Jamie Mac
Starts at 1:35:22
Maryland - 13
Nebraska - 10
Three Nebraska quarterbacks threw interceptions in this game, Maryland had 92 penalty yards. This game had eight(!) turnovers. But hey, Maryland is bowl eligible.
Illinois - 48
Indiana - 45
Just a debacle from the Indiana defense. Illinois QB John Paddock had 507(!!) passing yards. An Illinois player got ejected for spitting on an Indiana player.
Iowa - 22
Rutgers - 0
A slow motion blowout. Iowa gets 402 yards of offense! This game had an over/under of 27.5 which is the lowest in collegiate football... and it still hit the under.
Northwestern - 24
Wisconsin - 10
Northwestern is a win away from bowl eligibility. Wisconsin is now so far away from what God wanted Wisconsin football to be that now they're being punished.
Purdue - 49
Minnesota - 30
Purdue somehow pulls off over 600 yards of offense and has two 100 yard rushers.
Ohio State - 38
Michigan State - 3
Michigan State looks like they're just packing in the season now. Many Ohio State fans apparently are more confident after the Michigan Penn State game.
MUSIC:
- “Leave Me Alone”— I Don't Know How But They Found Me
- “Confidence”— Ocean Alley
- “Power Man”— The Kinks
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
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"You are not being fair to radio callers because they are so much smarter than the Ohio State fans."
November 13th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
He’s 4-16 against UofM and OSU. If he hasn’t taken the next step in a decade, why would he next season? He might get lucky and win the Big Ten in a couple years if Allar matures and he catches us and OSU in down years at the QB position. But he has to do a better job at self-scouting and identifying his weak (read “offensive line”) spots.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
PSU won't be in the east so won't have to face both OSU and UM most years. Especially when UM leaves for the ACC :p
November 13th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
They won't have to face UM and OSU both in the same year on the regular, but they are going to have to face at least 2 of USC/UM/OSU/Washington/UO.
Like, yes, the division thing isn't as big of a deal any more. But it's going to be pretty regular to see 3+ top 15 teams in the B10 going forward.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
He won at Vanderbilt. We like to make fun of him, but .....
November 13th, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^
Drew Allar is a better Wilton Speight talent wise, but Speight was a better college QB because he was behind a good offensive line. Allar would fall between Cade and JJ if he played for Michigan.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^
Huh? I'm not sure how this could be more inaccurate. Speight had very good downfield accuracy and was excellent against pressure (he wasn't mobile but he was very tough in the pocket) until he was broken by a janky O-line (in particular what Allar would find relatable to a VERY painful extent, bad guards). Like, the truth is literally 100% the opposite of what you wrote.
Drew Allar is Walt Bell's idea of a superstar QB.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
Eh I think this is a bit much. The pod is right to note that there are really no elite QB’s who don’t have at least good mobility in the pocket (most of the top guys now are true dual threats).
But Allar’s issues seem to happen to a lot of young QB’s. Poor O-Line play combined with sloppy footwork against pressure. JJ had much better protection last year than Allar, and even then we saw some of those issues crop up. He’s improved tremendously there.
Now even last year, JJ was much better because his escapability made up for a LOT of that. So Allar definitely has lower margin for error. But it’s not like these issues can’t get cleaned up as he gets more experience.
I don’t think he’ll be as good as JJ but I think he can be good enough to go in the 2nd round eventually
November 13th, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
How did Speight do as a true sophomore again?
Oh 5 of 9 for a 36% completion rate and 73 yards
Lots of expectations for greatness early due to the anomolies out there. No idea what Aller will become next year with a year of experience. Maybe we should wait and see.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
Scott Bell for Team Shitposter +1000000
November 13th, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
love the jazz/lobby music playing clearly in the background during the game theory segment.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^
I will continue to hammer the point that Fickell's decision to overhaul the Wisconsin offense the way he has should be a fireable offense.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:04 AM ^
Meh it's year 1 with wrong personnel. Wisconsin wanted something better than 9-3 and always lose to big time teams. That offense they used to have would have kept them in that space forever. For better or worse. Let's see in year 3.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Definitely agree the defense was tipping what we were going to run, Penn State kept running that simulated snap and 3-4 guys would move. PSU would look at the sideline, reset and knew what to attack. Luckily they are mostly incompetent on offense, but hoping were correcting this going forward.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^
Still disagree with Brian about going for two after the last touchdown. In theory it makes airtight sense. But in reality, there was absolutely no way in the universe Penn State was going to successfully execute two onside kicks and score twice on Michigan in less than two minutes. It was never ever ever ever ever going to happen. Penn State was not capable of it. With that being the case, the odds of kicking it deep and getting a three and out from Michigan was much higher. Then they score once and while the Shroedinger's two point conversion is definitely a thing, it is still more likely to get that than two consecutive on side kicks and two scoring drives.
November 13th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
I don't even think it makes sense in theory. If you kick the extra point, you're down one score. Schrodinger's cat is not a good analogy, because by going for two, you're putting the cat in the box yourself.
November 13th, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
Yeah, everything that has to happen in either scenario is Shrodinger's cat. If converting a two point conversion is unknowable, so is executing two scoring drives, so is converting two onside kicks. Getting a three and out if you don't go for two and kick deep is as well, but by going for two you've put four cats in boxes, going for one you only have three cats in boxes. I mean you are supposed to worry about not being able to get a two point conversion on a final drive, but you're supposed to feel better about getting two onside kicks?? Onside kicks are WAAAAYYYYY harder to execute than a two point conversion.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:36 PM ^
Absolutely. I came just to post this and it's like I'm taking crazy pills.
Sure, let's add another loss possibility to the game by going right there. Let's risk the game while down 9 with 2 mins and 2 TOs left. Let's do that instead of making it a one score game and staying alive (IT'S ONE SCORE, they now move the goalposts by calling it 1.5 scores).
Their argument now rests upon two insane notions:
1) With 2 mins left you gotta know whether you need more than one more score (lmao).
2) If your guys aren't as motivated down by one score with 2 mins left as they are being down two scores with 2 mins left they don't deserve to win anyway. Again, lmao. The game is played by human beings. Momentum matters. Situation and circumstance matters.
You make it a one score game. Period. You get the 3 & out and you're in business with about a minute to go about 60 yards. You don't go for two just to know what you need in this insane world where UM scoring again in those 2 mins even keeps you in the game. They need the 2pts anyway so stay alive. You don't even risk keeping it a two score game with two mins left when you have to kick the ball away, at best onside. That, too, becomes a kickoff IF you just make it a one score game. No onside needed.
They're dead wrong and the only thing worse than being wrong is how adamant they are that those disagreeing are dumb or not knowledgeable about football. There is a reason their own fans and PLAYERS didn't want to go for 2pts there. Before the snap half their defense was putting their arms up in a "wtf" motion. Every fan around the multiple people I know were at the game say they hated it before it failed.
It killed any and all momentum. I swear to the good lord that "analytics" have fucked the brains of half the people watching football for more than a decade. You kick the XP there. You don't ask your awful offense that's bad at 2pt conversions to risk the game when you still have hope. Not when Michigan DIDN'T THROW A PASS IN THE ENTIRE 2MD HALF. You watch them run 3x, punt and now you're in business.
But no. Frames Framed and somehow people condescendingly tell you it was the smart move. Ok.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
Northwestern should lock up that intern coach immediately - he has done a masterful job considering the circumstances.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
Before the season it was believed that if Colorado got anywhere near bowl eligibility that Sanders was a lock for coach of the year. And a few weeks into the season that sentiment seemed to solidify. But college football is a "what have you done for me lately" world, and I'm not convinced it's such a sure thing anymore.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
They had a very difficult schedule and have kept most games close even the ones they lost. And the Pac 12 has some excellent teams - certainly better offenses than 90% of the Big 10. Considering he portaled in 70% of the roster it's been a "good" season as many thought it was a 3 win team. Will be interesting to see how he does next year without his son at QB. He needs an ace defensive coordinator though down the road.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
Damned double post.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
That goal line stand was huge early and set the tone.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:03 AM ^
Love these breakdowns, especially after a victory. Are these recorded Sunday or Mondays? If Sundays any chance we can get the OSU game (and hopefully win) released for many of us who are traveling after the Thanksgiving holiday?
November 13th, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
True story. Guy walks up to me after my son’s baseball game Saturday morning. I’m decked out in Michigan gear. He says, “good luck today. Regardless of whether or not you have your coach. But I’ll tell you what…at least it’s been interesting and fun!” My response, “yeah. If you think hateful persecution is fun, yep. Fun.”
November 13th, 2023 at 11:17 AM ^
The path traced by an object thrown up in the air over time is a parabola.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:43 AM ^
I have updated my 2023 MGoBlog music playlists with the songs from this episode - here are the links:
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Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/playlist/2023-mgoblog-music/pl.u-11z0ofMkqvL
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Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/2a7Hw0FHtgqw351LwW8wPz?si=8690043244a24050
Thanks Frames Janklin, and Go Blue!
November 13th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
I believe Seth was going to make a point about Matt Rhule's sign stealing comments (I assume along the lines that he is a dick), but Brian quickly shut him down.
All the big 10 coaches that capitalized on the uninformed media frenzy and cried outrage in public over signs, I hope their careers are short! They know it is all horse shit and they are acting like they are victims, All in an effort to stain another coaches career and drive him out of the conference. No respect!
All of my inlaws are raging husker fans. It will be an interesting Christmas! Haha
November 13th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
I just came here to say that I am an attorney and I also got the reference to Schrödinger’s cat regarding going for two down 14.
granted, it took my much smarter Michigan engineering graduate son, to explain it to me the first time , but I still got it!
I love this blog and this fan base. Go Blue!
November 13th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
!!!ב
Something I think we take for granted with good, experienced coaches is the ability to match the system to the abilities of the current players. As the coach get players to fit his ideal system, then you can make that full transition while experiencing some success. You don't see that with a lot of the younger coaches who grew up in one system.
Additionally, I love players rotating frequently as it builds both confidence and depth. We saw for a few years what it looks like when you only have a good starter and nobody to back him up. This is how you build not only championship teams, but dynasties.
November 13th, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
The end result is all that matters, but the running game was still lighting downs on fire left and right. Just rewatched the game and the number of times they ran into numbers disadvantages, didn't matter if every single guy won his block, they had 0 chance of succeeding on... I'd say was probably 20% of those downs. Sometimes 2 guys went for the same PSU defender which compounded the problem, but when they're sending the house to the RB as a blocker, you can't just pass that guy up for the TE behind you to pick up. There were too many bodies flying so guys had to take blocks that mucked everything up.
I hated Gattis. Never thought he was a good OC, and he would do this stuff too. At PSU in 2021, that 4th down where they ran right into PSU's defense that was +2 in the box and lost 3 yards with Haskins, it's the same kind of thing.
Not all plays will go for 35 yards and a TD, but man, it's hard to not look at those play calls and get a little uneasy because it's not an opponent level thing. They don't run at -2 boxes because they don't think PSU can move the ball and score so just run the clock out. They do it because they don't seem to care?
Between the FG drive and Corum's TD, they had 3 drives.12 plays covering 42 yards and 7 minutes. That's avoiding turnovers but it's not actually running out the clock all that much. You can do both things without 4/5 of the runs going for less than 3 yards.
End of rant.
November 13th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
So let's dive down the wishing well known as transitive football.
1. We handily beat PSU with 12 players at a raucous State College (without using one half of our offense and our head coach).
2. OSU barely squeaked by 10 players from Notre Dame in a road environment.
3. PSU (losses to the #3 and #1 teams) is definitely a far better and higher ranked team than Notre Dame (losses to the #1, #11 and its-not-2018-Clemson).
Oh and did I mention that we play with 11 players on defense? That is the sweet spot when trying to slay a top 5 dragon.
November 13th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
Klatt says going for 2 then was wrong so I'll roll with that guy
November 13th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^
I'm surprised "It's either Hitler or Woody Hayes" wasn't the tag or title of the podcast.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:09 PM ^
Wow- The Kinks "Powerman" on the soundtrack- love it!
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