First line I’ve seen UM -7, O/U 46.5. Thoughts?
November 5th, 2023 at 4:49 PM ^
You are a fount of good sense today.
November 6th, 2023 at 6:49 AM ^
I mean the purpose of this thread is to solicit everyone's thoughts on the line and the game, no? it's fine to say "just enjoy the ride" but that's not really the point of the discussion here.
November 5th, 2023 at 6:29 PM ^
Not to mention that crowd will be bloodthirsty because of current events, as if they weren't bloodthirsty enough before. I think it will be our toughest game of the season, with all due disrespect to Ohio St.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
So either Vegas doesn't expect Harbaugh to be suspended or they don't think it'll matter.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:01 PM ^
My guess is they think both.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:20 PM ^
Any assistant knows it falls on JJ
November 5th, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
Definitely need to run the ball better the next 3 weeks starting with Penn State. I’m feeling very confident we will see a totally different team this upcoming weekend!
November 5th, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^
These coaches take what the D is giving, for the first time in…forever?
The running game is fine. The holes are there. We’re just fine.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
I expected a slightly bigger number (8.5), but that's not wildly off.
7 is right on one of the "key numbers", so it may take a good bit of action to move off that.
If one takes SP+ at face value, it would be 5.4 (30.5-22.1=8.4, then knock off 3 for HFA).
November 5th, 2023 at 6:58 PM ^
Obviously I want Michigan to win, but good luck to your team after this weekend, brother.
November 5th, 2023 at 10:12 PM ^
I don’t like PSU especially because I can’t stand James Franklin, but NittanyFan is the best opponent contributor to this blog!
November 5th, 2023 at 3:43 PM ^
"horrible offense" is a stretch. 7 seems a bit high to me, wouldn't be surprised to see it settle at 6.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:08 PM ^
Abjectly horrible is what I said. And no it’s not a stretch. This is a team that was 1/16 on 3rd down against OSU and put up 6 points while the game was in question. They have zero explosive capability against competent defense.
November 5th, 2023 at 7:01 PM ^
Our DB2 is only ok. I know this is Frames we're talking about but I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to air it out some especiall against Not Will Johnson. I think our defense is legit and our offense is very good so am expecting a good result but the game still has to be played and I agree with others saying this is the toughest game remaining. PSU is probably about as good as OSU this year but this game is at their place. At least it's at noon.
November 5th, 2023 at 7:09 PM ^
PSU is not as good as OSU, mainly due to a D+ coach v. a B- coach, and Marvin Harrison Jr. Results prove this.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:43 PM ^
Take the OSU margin of victory over PSU and add 7 points. The math used is the same math that the coaches used to come up with the 21 point number for the sign stealing advantage. It's a new realm of math called 'fuzzymath'.
Michigan 27
Penn State 12
November 5th, 2023 at 3:43 PM ^
Your prediction/betting advice look good to me. It's telling that Vegas has Michigan giving 7 on the road; guess the "but they haven't played anyone/they won't have the stolen signs advantage" doesn't mean a lot to Vegas unless Michigan bettors are THAT prolific.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
Vegas isn’t into political hit jobs or bull shit. To them it’s all about the Benjamin’s and this line conveys that. They want action on both sides.
November 5th, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^
Yeah, Vegas does not care about who wins, they care about who bets.
November 5th, 2023 at 6:33 PM ^
Anyone with a half a brain that has watched Michigan this season knows this is a really talented and experienced, technically sound and disciplined football team. I don't think Vegas is fooled by the talking heads.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
I think the line is that low because Vegas doesn’t really know how good either team is. Plus I bet they’re looking for that Michigan money.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:14 PM ^
I know how good this Michigan team is. Like many of you I've watched every game multiple times. Admit it. You've never seen the Wolverines look like this.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:22 PM ^
He’s still waiting for Cade to return next year to rescue the program…
November 5th, 2023 at 3:47 PM ^
Need to get the run game going.
I’m hoping most the year has been pretty vanilla running wise due to competition and much due to teams loading up to stop our running attack.
Hoping for some counters and play action off of those to give us our big chunk plays over the middle.
November 5th, 2023 at 9:45 PM ^
Much like OSU last year, if they are stacking the line to stop the run, throw. Eventually running lanes will open up once they respect the pass. I could see a close game at the half, then boa constrictor Michigan come out to choke the Lions in the 2nd half.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
Trust me Frames+-7<any u of m coach on our sidelines.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
The power rankings have to spread closer to Mich being a small favorite. There is a pretty big deviation between Sagarin, ESPN FPI and Vegas.
Michigan is the best team in the country. That said Michigan is only around 20-30% to win out from here. Winning football games is hard against good opponents. In a rational world Michigan could be able to lose one of these games and still be a lock for the playoffs.
Fans and pundits seem to have not taken a probability and statistics class in college. I feel like there will be a huge letdown if Michigan loses a game even though that should be the expectation because that is what the math says will likely happen. It isn't negative thinking or doubting. It is just how the math works out based on the schedule.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:24 PM ^
Fuck math, this is destiny brother
November 5th, 2023 at 5:24 PM ^
It would be humiliating, but the game we could actually afford to lose is Maryland.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:48 PM ^
Agreed. The Maryland game doesn't mean shit. We could beat PSU and literally give the starters a week off to prepare for OSU.
November 5th, 2023 at 6:02 PM ^
If a couple more conferences have 2-loss champions, this could be true.
November 5th, 2023 at 6:37 PM ^
I could see something like that happening in the 12-team playoff era.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:09 AM ^
Been clutching pearls all season about that OOC schedule but now we can afford a loss to Maryland. UM fans are weird.
November 5th, 2023 at 8:35 PM ^
The statistics don't lie but sometimes they also don't tell the truth people think they tell.
The 20-30% chance offends my gut sense that we are really good this year and likely to win each of these games.
In fact, my gut is that we have a 63% chance of beating Penn State in Happy Valley, an 80% chance of beating Maryland at Maryland and then a 55% chance of beating an undefeated top-ranked Ohio State team at home.
Which, if you multiply those odds together...results in a 27% likelihood of winning them all.
But before we feel too concerned over that 27% figure, we should realize that the odds of us doing what we already did, winning all nine of our cupcakes so far (even if we assume we were on average 90% likely to win each game) was only...39%.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:10 AM ^
How is Maryland going to beat us? There is just too much on our team to really worry about Maryland. They gave up 50+ to Penn St? Yikes.
November 5th, 2023 at 9:52 PM ^
I think the last 2 season Michigan had only a 10 percent chance of going undefeated in the conference. Statistically speaking a 20 to 30 percent chance is fairly high to win the conference compared to the last two seasons.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:50 PM ^
The lack of a running game really worries me. If its all on JJ, it could turn into a slog. I feel like if we can run ok we win by ~3 scores. If not, Im not sure either team tops 21
November 5th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
Even if everything else was equal (which it isn’t), it would reduce to JJ vs. Allar.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:31 PM ^
Lack of running game…
Really? Every team/year is different. We don’t have to ground and pound this year. Never been more comfortable with 3rd & long watching UM convert. The real mistake would be to make this team play like the past two teams.
We’re talking about Frames Janklin here. He saw Purdue rush 3, drop 8 and how JJ was slightly off because wasn’t feeling it. Try that 2 weeks in a row and this staff and JJ will eat next week.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:45 PM ^
JJ has been a much better QB on the road throughout his career. He says he loves the environment. Plus his legs will be a full go.
I just don't see Allar doing much vs our D. He checks everything & I mean everything down. He a game manager in year 1.
Sorry Penn State.
November 5th, 2023 at 6:39 PM ^
I would be very surprised if PSU let Allar throw anything farther than 20 yards downfield. It will be a ton of short sideline passes and WR or TE in the middle of the field for 5 to 10 yards.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:51 PM ^
I am worried about our OL and JJ's up and down game against Purdue. I think we will win but it might be more of a slog.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
I don’t think JJ played bad at all. He was just juiced up and throwing fastballs on every pass. I also think we’ve been playing possum with the running game. We’ll see last years team wit a much improved JJ.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:34 PM ^
Some of the throws that were “bad” according to the announcers bounced right off the receivers’ hands. I mean some of the locations may not have been perfect, but come on. 2 specifically come to mind, Barner had the ball hit him in the bicep—incomplete and Johnson jumped too early on the one and it still hit him in the hands and he still dropped it.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:14 AM ^
Yeah I noticed that as well. 3 were between the shoulders? You want the QB to go out there and place their hands in the correct spots? If they try to catch awkwardly and drop it but the ball was on the mark thats not on the QB.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:21 PM ^
Curb your worry by imagining our DL against PSU’s OL. Ahhhhh, there you go.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:53 PM ^
JJ's up and down game against Purdue
By his lofty standards it was a somewhat off game, but he finished 24-37 for 335 yards, which is a superb stat line for 90% of college QBs.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:52 PM ^
Great context JM. It was 50/50 off throws and drops. But by JJ standards and the eye test he was a little off. Chances are slim this happens 2 weeks in a row.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:58 PM ^
Prepare for fuckery from Petitti's goons.
That being said, this is going to be like Judgment Day. Michigan wins by three or four scores, and it won't even feel that close.