Rankings Roundup after Week 4: AP, Coaches, SP+
As always, early-season caveats about SP+ apply. The preseason numbers are slowly having less weight as we get more games under our belt. Here are the numbers after week 4.
COMPARING AP, COACHES, AND SP+ (RANKINGS)
The week featured several ranked matchups. Who were the winners and losers in the polls?
Georgia and Michigan remain the consensus #1 and #2 in the polls, with SP+ giving Michigan the nod at the #1 position. It seems that the model was sufficiently happy with Michigan’s slow-motion 31-7 beatdown of Rutgers, even while many in the game thread walked away less than convinced.
Moving further down the rankings, Texas is still back! Also, the toughest bunch of tough guys from toughsville toughed out a victory over Notre Dame. That was good enough to leapfrog FSU (tough shit Seminoles). Next week it’s OSU versus the world. Those tough bastards better be ready.
We also bid Adieu to Colorado this week. I would say au revoir but I doubt we’ll be meeting again anytime soon.
In general, there’s a little bit of disagreement among the AP and Coaches polls, but otherwise they are pretty much in agreement about the top teams. The big differences are between the humans and the SP+ model. SP is not as enamored with Texas and FSU, ranking both of them considerably lower than the AP and Coaches. On the other hand, SP+ really like 3 of next year’s new B1G teams, ranking Washington, USC, and Oregon at 4, 5, and 6, respectively.
SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS)
Damn it’s nice to see Michigan at the top. After living through the lean times, this run is really something to enjoy. Michigan also dethroned the reigning #1 defense dating back to last season, moving Iowa down one spot to #2.
As always, it’s fun to compare the offensive and defensive spreads. North Carolina is the newest leader in the “defense is optional” category, replacing USC with the largest spread between their offensive and defensive rankings. Utah is the least Pac of all top-25 Pac teams, with a top-10 defense but only the #37 ranked offense. Still, that #37 offense is better than all but the top-3 B1G teams.
Speaking of B1G teams…Woof.
Seriously? Only 5 teams can manage to field a SP+ top-40 offense while the remaining 9 teams are all ranked 70 or higher.
At this point, I’m thinking that a relegation model within the B1G wouldn’t be such a bad idea. The only problem would be finding enough teams to put in the top tier. Maybe it’s also time to start thinking about some unequal revenue sharing. I mean, it just doesn’t seem right that Oregon, Washington, and USC will come into the conference and raise it’s overall quality while getting significantly less money than the ever increasing number of dregs in the B1G. I don’t know. I’m just spitballing here. Tell me why I’m wrong.
TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)
I wanted to try something new and I thought it would be interesting to look at the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason until now. Here they are.
Apologies for the overlapping team labels. There’s nothing I can do about that unless I make them so small they’re essentially unreadable.
Anyway, it looks like we’re starting to get some compression in the top 25, maybe as the last season’s effects get factored out. We’re definitely beginning to cluster around a few tiers. Only about 5 points currently separate #1 Michigan (nice!) from #9 Penn State.
SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Standard interpretation applies:
- Top-right: Good at offense and defense
- Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
- Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
- Bottom-left: Not so good at football
Now do I have your attention for a B1G relegation or unequal revenue sharing model?
SP RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference.
It looks like the SEC is finally starting to come down to Earth. The average SP+ rating last week was 15 points, compared to about 12.5 points this week.
Anything you find interesting?
September 25th, 2023 at 9:26 AM ^
Those Maryland rankings have to be a mistake! A top 20 DEFENSE with only a top 40 OFFENSE?!? What kind of bizarro world have we stumbled into??
September 25th, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^
September 25th, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^
Excellent point. Had not considered that. Still, a much better defense than offense?
September 25th, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
September 25th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
Also apparently overestimating MD's opponents. I mean, as much as we like the Fighten' Poggi's down in Charlotte, there isn't much they can offer against a legit P5 team. Same with the crowd in EL...
September 25th, 2023 at 1:03 PM ^
MSU offense can have a significant impact on your defense. :)
September 25th, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^
I will be curious to see where Rutgers ends up. They looked a lot better than a top-70 team. Once the preseason stuff is gone completely, I have to imagine they will move up.
September 25th, 2023 at 12:48 PM ^
Wisnatt (sp?!) impressed me early on. Jake Butt made the T. Pryor comp and that made sense. If they could get him out in space more to use that stride, watch out Sparty/Minnesota/Purdue!
September 25th, 2023 at 9:33 AM ^
Add UCLA into the mix next year as well being a top 25 offense with the other new additions. That will raise the B1G profile even more. 🤷♂️
September 25th, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
My observations:
About half of the top 25 have a higher-ranked SP+ D vis-a-vis SP+ O. B1G of course doesn't believe in that.
The Top 3 have a much tighter spread in O and D, compared to the rest.
The teams that have a higher SP+ O in the Top 25, typically field a way worse SP+ D.
Michigan could be in trouble if the O does not get better than what they already have. Weird to write that. But they also have the worst SP+ O among the Top 9, almost the same as Alabama.
Thank James Franklin that PSU has the worst SP+ O in the Top 10. But their D is higher ranked than Michigan's O.
September 25th, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
"Michigan could be in trouble if the O does not get better than what they already have."
Unless the 2023 defense turns out to be as dominant as the '97 defense was, we're not winning a national championship fielding this offense.
September 25th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
That's a concern. I do not think this is a defense of the 97 calibre, in spite of the numbers they are putting up. B1G will not be a problem, as the offenses are beyond horrible.
As long as Michigan doesn't face a senior QB or a generational talent at QB, it should be fine. A defense can wake up and put their play together for one game, as we saw with TCU last year. That's what is worrisome if Michigan plays USC. And Texas to some extent. Georgia and OSU are with first-year QBs. So far Georgia's defense looks good, but OSU not so much.
In short, it may not come into play. But no harm is in honing it into a better-oiled machine.
September 25th, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
Ohio #1 in Toughness is priceless!!! :-P
September 25th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
Kinda surprised Penn State isn't getting more SP+ love
September 25th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^
If you actually watch their games, they look substantially worse than the final score would indicate. They don't seem to be able to do anything very explosive, but just wait for teams like Iowa to let their terrible offenses leave their defenses out on the field way too long. Their defense does seem strong, but serious competition caveats apply.
September 25th, 2023 at 10:07 AM ^
All of it. I find all of it interesting. Thanks for the graphical interpretations. Obvious things (from the Saturday eye test) become most definitely obvious.
I've been in favor of another couple tiers in DI for a long time, but I'm getting more interested in relegation. It just means there are no more traditional conferences in football. They can stay for all other sports.
September 25th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
The practicalities of a 'you're out of the Big Ten' relegation model seem baffling. The shame that would go with? The prestige? Iowa is out after 100-some-plus years. Where do you go in the meantime? How do you get back? I think the top four teams should just have to give up their four best players--say--to a designated team, us to MSU (for example) every year. :)
September 25th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
It was definitely more tongue in cheek. I'm too much of a fan of tradition to do that to Iowa. 😊
But I am seriously curious about the possibility of uneven revenue sharing. The B1G gets $6 million for every team that makes the CFB playoff, and it's my understanding that the conference then splits this money evenly across all teams. I guess an argument could be made that they played their part by getting stampeded along the way, but I'd rather see something like 2/3 of the money going to the teams that actually made the playoffs. The same goes for the NCAA tourney. I don't think UM deserves the same cut as all the teams that made the tourney last year. 🤷♂️
September 25th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
I can see the argument, but that may only mean the rich get richer. I'd be very curious to see how much each school invests in football, to know whether there's any pursuit of a level playing field there. The NFL has thrived on quietly making teams more equal.
September 25th, 2023 at 12:41 PM ^
Glad to see the per down performance wasn’t as bad as it looked live against Rutgers. Still disappointing to see this offense outside the top 10. They really need to figure out the tackle situation
September 25th, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
Excellent! This still constitutes a significant fraction of my excitement to visit mgoblog on a post-game Monday. And the wry toughness reference: sublime.
September 25th, 2023 at 1:17 PM ^
1. Holy PAC12 offenses! In the SP+ 4 quadrant chart, the top offenses are FAR AND AWAY above & beyond the rest of the field...and we get to see all 3 in B18 land next year!
2. In the SP+ Top 25 per week, it's interesting how the top 4 in preseason are a huge gap above everyone else. Each of those teams had one or two big dropoffs along the way to Week 4 ratings (Michigan's dropoff the least pronounced). At week 4, the #1 team (whoever that is) is below where the top 4 were preseason. The elite teams had a rating of 27+, and now there's a big blank space in the 27-29 range (EDIT: 27-32).
3. Michigan's first 5 B1G games are full of redundancy. You'll have a hard time telling these teams apart from their SP+ offense/defense splits*:
- Team A: #87 offense, #22 defense
- Team B: #85 offense, #28 defense
- Team C: #79 offense, #40 defense
- Team D: #83 offense, #43 defense
- Team E: #94 offense, #75 defense
Okay, so Team E stands out a little bit. But without looking anything up, you can't tell who is who. Michigan's offense is going to continue to get tested each week while the defense might risk falling asleep, anxiously awaiting being tested, by the time they're done playing this stretch of games.
(*rankings are guesswork based on the B1G chart above...the tick marks don't represent exactly one spot.)
September 25th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
At week 4, the #1 team (whoever that is) is below where the top 4 were preseason.
Oh, come on Chuck. Just say it. You'll feel better after you do. Acceptance is the first step on the road to recovery. 😊
...while the defense might risk falling asleep
Yep. Many people here are worried a bit about the offense, which I can understand. But I'm more anxious about finding out what our D is all about because it hasn't been close to being tested yet. It's stout in the middle, no doubt. But I am concerned about the lack of a pass rush from the DEs.
(*rankings are guesswork based on the B1G chart above...the tick marks don't represent exactly one spot.)
Yeah, that's been a problem. Next week I'll try to get more tick marks in, maybe staggering them up and down so they're not so crowded.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
...or fewer tick marks? Five between each dotted-line at the 10s perhaps?
September 25th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^
Well Buckeye Chuck- you may want to spend more time worrying about an OSU offense that would have scored 7 points against ND if ND's coach didn't go full Frames Janklin by passing on 2nd down and then using 10 players his last 2 plays on defense.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^
I wasn't asked to respond to the OSU/ND game...I merely made a Michigan-based observation on a Michigan-based blog. Appropriate or inappropriate?
September 25th, 2023 at 3:43 PM ^
Your comment was fine- I just used the occasion that OSU was 1 monumentally bad coaching decision by ND from only scoring 7 points in a game.
I was a little saddened that Ryan Day felt the need to attack Lou Holtz who is 86 and has suffered a stroke.
September 25th, 2023 at 4:31 PM ^
I also didn't like that Day called out Holtz (though I had no knowledge that Holtz had said anything).
It was an emotional moment for Day and he got caught up in it.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:34 PM ^
I love the addition of the trend chart.
It's not amazing visually, but that is the exact data point I my brain was demanding when I read your column the second week - SP+ rating change over time. Thanks for adding it.
September 26th, 2023 at 2:38 AM ^
Lol. SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS) has the "toughness" ranking for anOSU.
Genius. :)