Michigan TCU Advanced Stats Preview
https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1600499713052409858?s=20&t=2v-ajnAVsAASpPtKdCw7uQ
A lot to take away from this but one interesting point I notes was that their defensive success rate against the run is 39%, good for 68th overall. That seems less than desirable for them. Our offensive rush success rate is top 10, though obviously we will be without Corum.
December 7th, 2022 at 10:22 AM ^
Yeah, I'm not sure how applicable our current offense without Corum is with the current statistical profile UM has. With Corum and most of the season, UM has a very efficient offense, but not very explosive. It had one of the biggest gaps between efficiency and explosive rate. The last two weeks without Corum has flipped. The offense has not been very efficient, but has been explosive. That is no doubt part missing Corum, but also part defenses finally saying 'we're going to take away the efficient run, see if you can beat us other ways'. Hopefully UM self scouts without Corum and the current personal, and finds a way to keep the offense efficient. It would be nice to be efficient and explosive.
December 7th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
You may not mean this, but I don't think the recent explosiveness has much to do with Corum being out. It has a lot more to do with JJ having 6 TD passes in the past two games. Blake + Donovan do at least as well as The Don did on his own (+ Mullings).
December 7th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
Yeah the biggest thing I’ve noticed with Corum out is our running game has a lot more runs on first down that are stuffed for no gain or only go for a yard. With Corum, it felt like we were guaranteed to get to 2nd & 7 at worst but usually 2nd & 5 on average. I think we can scheme around it for TCU but it’d be huge to get Corum back for a Georgia or OSU rematch.
December 7th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
I have noticed the same thing and observed the same difference in efficiency. The offense has flipped from being more efficient dominant to explosive dominant. Both are good formulas but they are different.
The point on self scout is good. Hopefully, they don’t deploy an efficiency gameplan with a less efficient offense that’s become more explosive dependent. This changes if Mullings can become an efficient RB and bear some of the carries with production. Based on the big ten championship, I’d imagine Harbaugh / Hart / etc. have already noticed this and know they need Mullings to take the next step for the offense to be ELITE in BOTH efficiency and explosiveness.
December 7th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
I think defenses the last two weeks (even three) have forced the hand of the offense to shift a little in approach. And it's burned the last two teams trying to download the illannoy D-plan.
I'm more impressed that this team can do both - be efficient and be explosive. They aren't simply one or the other.
December 7th, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
It's funny that Corum is the one that is built like Barry Sanders (5'8", 200+) and runs like him, but it's Edwards is the one that has Barry-style stat lines (runs of 1, 3, 3, 60, 2, 27, 7, etc.).
December 7th, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^
TCU has relied on coming from behind and finishing strong to win games vs tough opponents....
Michigan has completely shut down our opponents in the 2nd half....
That bodes well for us.
GO BLUE
December 7th, 2022 at 10:32 AM ^
Hot take: Stats don't mean much at this point. It's playoff time and each team will lay it all on the line to get to the NC game. TCU is a dangerous team. Michigan will have its hands full.
December 7th, 2022 at 10:38 AM ^
Ok, I guess there is no reason to discuss anything further?
December 7th, 2022 at 10:40 AM ^
Gotta pull those bootstraps. Dig in. Really gotta execute. Gotta want it. Team that wants it more will win. A privilege to be here. one day at a time.
December 7th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
Is this comment plus 2 replies just an AI bot gone rogue?
December 7th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
Team with the most points when the clock hits 0:00 is probably gonna win.
December 7th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
as long as the punter does his job.....
dives for cover
December 7th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
WHAT? because TCU can become a completely different team in 4 weeks?
I'm sure it will be a game and Michigan may lose but saying that year to date stats don't have any predictive power is kind of stupid
December 7th, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^
Men can become women. Women can become men. Dogs can become cats and vice versa. So who am I to question that TCU can become a completely different team in 4 weeks considering the advances that science has made in coaching?
December 7th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
According to 247, the team composite talent difference between TCU and Michigan is the same as the difference between OSU and Michigan. My point is this - if you think TCU is gonna be a cakewalk, ask OSU how things went on the last Saturday of November.
December 7th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
QB play is the great equalizer, and TCU has a tremendous player at the position.
December 7th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
Yeah the worry would be if Duggan goes Aidan O'Connell on us. Duggan's got a better team and he has the legs to run too. If he plays the game of his life, it's gonna be a tall task for the D. Plus the fact that we haven't really faced a running QB like him this year. Clifford kind of ran but not a ton. I still think we can handle TCU's offense, but it'll be a challenge
December 7th, 2022 at 11:21 AM ^
The Michigan D will need at least an INT from Will Johnson and Mike Sainristil to have a few critical pass breakups in the either the Red Zone or in the End Zone. Mike Morris will also be a key player for the Maize and Blue because he'll need to pressure the hell out of Duggan. These would be the defensive keys to the game for Michigan IMO.
December 7th, 2022 at 11:35 AM ^
Did you forget this guy? taulia tagovailoa ? Plays for Maryland, runs a 4.45 40?
Dugan runs a 4.58 40-
December 7th, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^
What's Stroud's 40 time?
/checksnotes
Oh that doesn't strictly correlate with QB runs.
December 7th, 2022 at 3:24 PM ^
/checks sundial
December 7th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
Actually yes I did forget about Taulia. Whoops lol
But also Taulia only ran 4 times for 20 yards for Maryland. TCU is probably going to rely on Duggan's legs a lot more than 4 times
December 7th, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^
TCU is a good team that can beat Michigan. That said, Michigan couldn't have asked for a better matchup. Any team in the top 4 in any given year is going to be good. Michigan struggles more with blue bloods that have the talent that Michigan cannot man handle. TCU ain't that. This is even better than if Michigan drew Cincy last season.
December 7th, 2022 at 3:03 PM ^
Ha ha ha... I read that as OSU is a blue blood with talent but Michigan man handled them anyway...
December 7th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
I think we match up really well against them. Their defense is not on the level of OSU or PSU and we should be able to get consistent success against them
The difference will come down to gameplan and execution (duh). If we can limit explosive plays and keep their QB from extending plays constantly, we're going to be in really good shape
December 7th, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^
Parker's great for a lot of these stats and he's a TCU fan to boot. I do think this is a closer matchup than some people are thinking; TCU has played some good offenses in the Big 12 and done well against them.
The x-factor for me will be slowing down the TCU offense. Michigan doesn't want to get into a race with the horned frogs so it's essential that they slow them down early and play to their strengths. UM is the better team but the gap is such that TCU absolutely can win this game without it being some seismic screwup by UM.
December 7th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
Blake Corum enabled Michigan to win the TOP battle because on drives, he ran for 4,5,6 and more yards on 1st and 2nd down. With Blake, Michigan was able to move the chains. He also had the home run ability to score TDs from 20 or more yards out. Donovan is more of a home run hitter whereas when he breaks free and gets into the secondary, he's gone. Donovan did move the chains in the 3rd quarter against OH State before he unleased his 2 long TD runs in the 4th quarter.
Looking at the Purdue stats, they ran 84 plays compared to only 55 for Michigan. That is a complete flip before Blake got injured. Purdue won the TOP by almost 7 1/2 min. It was the Michigan defense that shut down Purdue in the Red Zone and they had to settle for FG.
The point is, Michigan cannot afford TCU to run 80 plays. If so, then the defense will once again have to make critical stops in the RZ. IMO, the whole offensive dynamic has changed without Blake Corum but IT HAS been successful. The argument is valid that our offensive success rate will lower but it doesn't spell doom and gloom.
December 7th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
the same can be said for the ohio state game... they actually lead in TOP by 4 minutes and ran 17 more plays, we also held them to FGs on 3 drives.
you aren't going to be Michigan kicking field goals....
I love saying that, since we heard it said about Michigan so many times this year.
December 7th, 2022 at 11:22 AM ^
The thing that pops to me is their passing success rate it quite low. They are much better running the ball (likely has a lot to to with QB running). If we can stuff runs on early downs, then spy the QB, can Duggan complete 3rd and 6+ against our secondary?
December 7th, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
I still hope for a chance of Corum coming back, if not Fiesta Bowl, the Natty.
With or without Corum, our offense will march on regardless. Both JJ and Edwards are studs in last two games. Mullings has been great as the short yardage back, and is under appreciated as an ultimate team player.
December 7th, 2022 at 2:50 PM ^
I forgot about Kalil Mullings. He was under the radar until the Purdue game plus he had a few keys runs vs OH State and adding that throw he made in the backfield he made to get a key first down. Before that, he was involved in a play or two.
We can thank Mike Hart for coaching him up and also seeing the value Mullings can add to the running game.
December 7th, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^
Happy to see we rank #1 in Eckel Ratio. That means we should win it all right?
December 7th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
Things that jump out:
TCU is not great against defending the run. 68th nationally in defensive success rate against the run. Gotta be licking our chops about that
They're also 82nd nationally in offensive passing sucess rate. Kinda surprising given Duggan's stats. But they have more explosive plays than Ohio State. Having not watched any of their games, my take from the data is they aren't incredibly efficient on a down by down basis, but then have lots of explosive plays.
One other thing not listed here: Michigan has 94% scoring rate in the Red Zone. TCU on the other hand, only has an 82% scoring rate in the Red Zone. That's a substantial difference and worth paying attention to
December 7th, 2022 at 2:51 PM ^
Hold TCU to FG like we did against Purdue (5) and OH State (3).
December 7th, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
One problem with evaluating differences simply by the stats is that the two teams have faced different opponents, in different leagues whose teams' styles of play emphasize different aspects of the game.
I think you'd have to do a deeper dive and ask whether TCU has faced a team built to play like Michigan this year; I'm guessing they really haven't. So we don't have much information as to how well their defense will work against Michigan's ball control, grind-you-down style of offense.
We have a little more information, however, about how Michigan's defense has worked against pass-heavy offenses with relatively mobile quarterbacks. That's gone pretty well so far.
We've played a team with as much, if not more talent, on offense: Ohio State (though OSU's QB wasn't very mobile this season). We've played another team or two with good passing offenses, like Purdue. I'm not saying these teams are exactly alike, but perhaps they're not all that far apart in offensive philosophy (I'm no expert, and am fully willing to be shown I'm wrong in this assumption).
My guess is that Michigan's style of offensive line play will cause TCU problems in the second half, as it has done with other teams all year. If we play to potential - a very big if - we should do well in this game.
December 7th, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
TCU's 3-3-5 defense also does not seem ideal to stop Michigan's rushing attack, though Michigan hasn't really faced that defense this year (IIRC, there are a lot of people who are way smarter at football than me here) - though without Corum, who knows?
December 7th, 2022 at 1:21 PM ^
Excellent write up. We have major advantages in scheme and talent that most likely will win the day, but the biggest factor in the next game is our coach can beat up their coach.
December 7th, 2022 at 2:35 PM ^
Defense wins championships....
someone used to say