The Insane Second Half Schedule
I know this is sort of obvious, but I haven't seen it discussed in its own thread, so here goes.
If Michigan were to win out, it would have to beat the teams with the following rankings:
#1, #2, one of #3-#5, #6, #7, #10
If you assume each of those games is a toss-up (probably charitable), the odds of winning out are <2%.
It's gonna be a fun year, but this schedule is just too hard to win a championship from.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:28 PM ^
The bye week comes at an opportune moment. A couple of injured players need time to heal. Roman Wilson and a couple guards could use this plus the NW game to take a break before the upcoming 5 week gauntlet. Soon we will know what this team is made of.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:22 PM ^
It's tempting to break everything down in today's life, project and let everyone know how you feel. This is not needed this day. Enjoy the season for the joy it brings. If good fortune brings more victories than the alternative smile and celebrate. If the likely result is less than a championship this year shrug, more on and appreciate the effort this great group of young people are working hard to achieve.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:33 PM ^
You know MGoBloggers are sad to be glad!?
October 10th, 2021 at 8:25 PM ^
I can't see us beating Penn St. unless Clifford's injured. Their defense is too good. OSU's WRs are too much for our DBs. Otherwise, every game is winnable. I'm hoping a positive season helps us close well with recruits. The problem is that early season success gets overshadowed by late season failures, and the national narrative turns negative.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:30 PM ^
You really can’t imagine a scenario we beat PSU? I’m sure they would be favored if Clifford is back and healthy but it’s not like they are a generational Goliath lol…we would be less than 7 point underdogs.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:51 PM ^
Maybe if the game was played at home in the afternoon, but they're going to make it a white-out under the lights game. Their defense, as I was constantly reminded during yesterday's broadcast, is very athletic. I can't stand James Franklin, but that glib cue ball can recruit.
October 10th, 2021 at 9:48 PM ^
I mean you are wrong. They can’t make it a night game because the game is 11/13…you are just fear mongering without any basis at this point.
October 10th, 2021 at 9:11 PM ^
Yeah, it's not like Penn State destroyed Wisconsin or something. There's only one team on the schedule where you say yourself "OK, we're going need to steal some of the Frost cutie plays" and that's tOSU, as usual.
October 10th, 2021 at 11:24 PM ^
War is Peace
Freedom is Slavery
Ignorance is Strength
October 10th, 2021 at 11:04 PM ^
Whether it's a night game or not at PSU, the way this team embraces hostile environments means they won't be intimidated. I like M's defensive front against their o-line. PSU doesn't have a vaunted running game & while mobile, Clifford - if healthy - is not Martinez. With push up front, Hutichinson & Ojabo coming off the edges, I think M disrupts the timing of any mid to deep patterns. As far as PSU's defense, you're right, they're legit but M has proven they can move the ball on stout defenses. Hopefully the growth of the team by then will meet the moment.
Same can be said for Ohio. Their o-line isn't their greatest strength & outside of Oregon, they haven't faced the type of pressure our defense can bring that can disrupt that high-flying Ohio passing game and stalemate their run game. Plus, we've seen how MacDonald will scheme to protect the CBs & confuse/pressure the QB.
This team has a chance because they have enough good to great pieces to compete with anyone. On any given Saturday, that's enough to beat anyone.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:31 PM ^
You assume Iowa will be in the playoffs. I don't.
October 10th, 2021 at 11:19 PM ^
Well, they'll be in the big ten title game and we'd have to play them there (may not need to beat them to get into the playoff though).
October 10th, 2021 at 8:35 PM ^
O.G.A.A.T
October 10th, 2021 at 8:40 PM ^
FWIW, per ESPN's FPI -
UofM has a 5.4% chance of winning out and 28% chance of winning the division, and a whopping 40.5% chance to make the playoffs. Expected win totals are 10.4 with 1.9 losses (doesn't equal 12, because some scenarios have us in Indianapolis).
October 10th, 2021 at 8:46 PM ^
Even if we did win out and covered in each game, I'd still not be happy unless we continue to win every game for at least 5 seasons. That's what a real team would do.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:48 PM ^
Michigan is probably not going to compete for a championship this year, but let's not move the goal posts of expectation either. Most reasonable fans coming into this season felt like 8-4 would be a pretty good showing given the all the circumstances of the program after the 2020 season. 6-0 heading into the bye week is beyond what most of us felt this team was going to be able to achieve, which is truly fantastic.
The bye week sets up really well for this team to approach the schedule as a tail of two seasons. They should feel great about making it through the first leg undefeated. But the team has been good about acknowledging that no one wins anything of significance in October. The reps and experience from the first leg of the season are now going to have be leveraged and improved upon if they're going to find success in the second leg, because now it's. time for big boy football. They proved to themselves they can play good defense, they can open up the passing game at times, and they can win and come from behind in tough road environments. That's outstanding experience to have because they're going to need it in the back half of the schedule. They've been tested and they have responded, and now the tests will get harder.
From a fans perspective, I just find it enjoyable to watch this team work hard, execute, and we're starting to see the coaches put them in a position to succeed, especially in the past two games. This team is not perfect, but I don't anyone reasonably expected them to be. I'm just going to enjoy the games and appreciate the effort. We may drop a couple, but everything we've seen so far this season leads me to believe they're back on the right track.
October 10th, 2021 at 9:06 PM ^
I thought 4-8 was reasonable for the year. Granted I thought Wisconsin and Washington would be good, but the team already has a better record than I expected. And they beat a Nebraska team that might be the best they played so far. Now I'm thinking 9-3, maybe 10-2, but that's already a significant step better than I had expected, so it's just time to appreciate what we get from here out.
October 10th, 2021 at 11:23 PM ^
Michigan is already competing for a big ten championship. That's the championship we should care about around here. Gotta win that to have a shot at anything else, anyway.
October 10th, 2021 at 8:53 PM ^
I am confused. Did the 1997 team not have to win at Wisconsin, at MSU, at PSU, and OSU at home too?
Not comparing this team to 1997, but supposedly every year the schedule is "too tough".
October 10th, 2021 at 9:11 PM ^
Did Alabama win this weekend? Asking for the rankings…
October 10th, 2021 at 9:17 PM ^
Just please, please, beat MSU. Don’t go 0-2 against Mel Tucker. Michigan is over achieving and a loss to OSU or PSU doesn’t change that, in my view. Playing for the conference title would be way beyond my expectations. But for the love God beat fucking MSU.
October 10th, 2021 at 9:36 PM ^
Your calculation of <2% is the wrong approach. As they say, one game at a time and the probability of winning the next game >50%.
October 10th, 2021 at 10:16 PM ^
I wonder what odds you would have gotten to start the season that Bama, Clemson and osu would all have a loss at this stage and Michigan would be unbeaten.
Every game is winnable.
October 10th, 2021 at 11:09 PM ^
I'm not following you, boss. Please explain how you're getting this. Are you projecting where our opponents will be ranked by the time we play them? Or assuming including games in the conference championship and the national playoff?
If you're assuming we win the whole kiboodle you've got a helluv an imagination. Maybe we can play with anyone in the conference ... if we keep improving, if OSU hasn't fixed its issues. But we're simply not on a plane to compete with the best nationally.
October 11th, 2021 at 12:05 AM ^
Is OP really saying the Northwestern game will be a toss-up?
October 11th, 2021 at 1:14 AM ^
8.7% is the likelihood of M winning out…per FPI ratings with a 2.5 point home field advantage.
October 11th, 2021 at 7:23 AM ^
Just keep in mind that all those teams also play each other. This feels a little more like how it should be where one team isn't borderline guaranteed to go 12-0 and there are going to be a bunch of 9-3 to 10-2 teams all beating each other up.
That translates to you don't have to be perfect. I don't think this team is championship ready...and that's ok because they are certainly building something and could still have an amazing year.
PSU, OSU, MSU are all looking at their schedule thinking the same thing UM is.
October 12th, 2021 at 12:07 AM ^
There’s a five week stretch next season that goes:
Maryland (but September Maryland)
@Iowa
Penn State
Nebraska
@MSU
you do what you can, and Michigan will have to deal with the adversity. Coming into the year, we were worried about IU but less so about State. That was misinformed. Let’s see how things go.