Playing around with possible minutes distribution for next year
We have been talking a lot about getting another transfer guard, but I really feel that we do not understand how good some of these freshmen potentially can be. We haven’t had a class like this since the fab five. Assuming we hold with what we have, here is some possible minutes distribution for next year.
PG: Brooks 20 Collins 15 Zeb 5
SG: Bufkin 20 Brooks 8 Zeb 6 Barnes 6
SF: Houstan 26 Barnes 6 Zeb 4 Williams 4
PF: Johns 20 Diabate 10 Williams 10
C: Dickinson 28 Diabate 12
Brooks 28
Dickinson 28
Houstan 26
Diabate 22
Bufkin 20
Johns 20
Collins 15
Zeb 15
Williams 14
Barnes 12
Looks confusing but the point is this is a roster with a ton of flexibility. Juwan can mix and match depending on matchups and who has the hot hand. Some guys might play 25 minutes one night and 10 the next. But I think we will have 10 guys that play regularly next year, and a lot more potential for explosiveness on offense.
April 15th, 2021 at 12:17 PM ^
All benches tighten up. I would have a hard time believing that this many people will play at least that many mins. Possible. But it feels like good teams, they are more too heavy in mins than this shows.
April 15th, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
That’s certainly possible. There were a lot of top teams who had 9 players average double figures minutes this year. 10 might be pushing it. But I think we have 10 guys who can play real minutes. Maybe some one in that group doesn’t make the regular rotation. Maybe it’s Zeb, even though I know UM is very high on him. Point is, unless there’s someone who is absolutely can’t miss in the portal, I think we are pretty deep already.
True - but we'll also likely be getting at least one transfer at this point (now that we know Chaundee, Smith and Davis are all not coming back) and that guy will certainly be in the "getting minutes" group. I would guess Barnes/Williams will be single minute guys (with some double digit games) and possibly Collins as well (depending on the position of the transfer).
i see zeb making a big leap next year. he sat back this year since there were solid more experienced options. he is super quick and supposedly very difficult to guard in practice. he will need to be more of an alpha dog and start attacking the rim; or at least attacking and kicking out to shooters. i see that happening...at least i hope so.
Yeah, one of Zeb or Collins will win out for the non-Brooks PG minutes so one will play 25 min and the other will play sparingly. It might be the case that both play early until one wins out like when Brooks played a lot as a freshman early in 2018 but then Simpson won out.
I do think that one of them will be good enough that along with Brooks, we don't need a grad transfer.
Similar with Williams and Barnes. One will play 15-20 min and the other sparingly at best. And it's possible neither play that much if Houstan can play 30-35 min a game.
1- Brooks / Collins 25/15
2- Bufkin / Brooks / Zeb 25/8/7
3- Houstan / Zeb 30/10
4- Johns / Diabate 25/12 ( Twill 3)
5- Dickinson / Diabate 30/10
Minutes-
1. Brooks 33
2. Dickinson 30
2. Houstan 30
4. Johns 25
4. Bufkin 25
6. Diabate 22
7. Zeb 17
8. Collins 15
9. T-Will 3
Offense runs through Dickinson, with 4 shooters around him! Experience isn't necessary at the 2/3 so put your McDonald's All American's there.
Tim McCormick said he see's Zeb as a 2/3 and I tend to agree, I think Bufkin is more of a natural 2 with some combo in him, than Zeb. I see Zeb as more of a Hardaway type.
T-Will will get more minutes when Dickinson gets into foul trouble, more Diabate at the 5 and T- Will at the 4 when that happens.
Other than having a Trey Burke at PG, this is pretty close to the perfect line up, and roster.
1- A Sr, glue guy who can move the ball and make the offense gel. His back up? An Uber athletic top 50 recruit.
2- Mcdonald's All American. Can shoot, drive, and pass. Might have been a 5* with a Sr season. Zeb will fill in some time here as a shooter.
3- Best recruit in over 25 years at Michigan. Glen Rice?? We can hope haha.
4- A Sr backed up by a 5*. Wow
5- 2nd Team all American. Backed up by a 5*
Let's GOOOOOO BLUE!!!
April 15th, 2021 at 12:18 PM ^
Over / under for the number of "minutes" threads we'll see before the season starts?
April 15th, 2021 at 12:38 PM ^
We're at 2 already from TK, who continues to give Johns 20 minutes, which is ludicrous considering Johns averaged 26 minutes in the last 5 games when Livers was out. Eli averaged 32 and 31 MPG the last two seasons. He's not coming back to see his minutes decrease.
Johns played 26 minutes a game because we were basically down to 7 rotational players after Livers was hurt. Eli played 29.9 minutes and you don’t think 28 is reasonable given the talent at guard coming in?
We are losing 2 guards, so I think Eli’s minutes are more likely to increase. If Franz comes back, Johns will play fewer minutes. Losing Franz and Livers and Davis just about guarantees Johns playing 30 minutes.
But with Franz, Livers and Davis gone there will be lots of minutes for Johns. He, Dickinson and Diabate will probably be in a three man rotation for 80 min and if Williams earns any of those min he's probably taking them from Diabate. Johns is the only guy in the group that can shoot. So he'll probably get 28-30 min to spread the floor.
Well, by June, they are going to be "How many minutes do I smoke this brisket?" type threads. Actually, if you want to see a real fight, start that one yourself.
I smoked a brisket on Sunday for 13 hours. It turned out perfect, and then yesterday I cubed the leftover brisket and made a pot of chili.
Basketball is really my only Michigan sports enjoyment these days so I’d rather talk about roster management and minutes distribution than I would about which player is leaving the football team this week. When is the last time we’ve had a positive football thread that we really felt was genuine and the excitement would last? I can’t think of any.
April 15th, 2021 at 12:28 PM ^
That distribution isn't going to happen.
I did take a look at the minutes distribution on quite a few teams during the tournament, and most teams feature five players who average about 30 minutes each...which accounts for 150 of 200 available minutes.
Then, most teams have two or three players averaging 10-20 minutes per game (think Davis, Brown, Johns on this year's team)...and then everyone else getting the HVC minutes.
It's not realistic to expect ten players to get significant minutes. It rarely happens on the collegiate level. You want your best players to play...and the games are only 40 minutes...with many stoppages in play. 20 year olds can easily play 30 minutes a game over a 30-game season stretched across five months or so.
You can’t bring in 4 and 5 star players and them not get minutes. Some outside the top 100 will take their low minutes as a freshman but they aren’t gonna do it after that when they can go somewhere else and play. I’m ok with having a primary 8-9 but if you have a couple others that can log some minutes that don’t hurt your team I’d get them out there. I don’t think the talent is gonna drop off the cliff after the first 6 or 7 like we are used to going forward. They’ll be young but talented. There is a case right now, without Franz and not knowing any potential transfers, for ten to get some minutes this year. There are a few that I don’t see playing much but I’ll keep their names out of my post.
April 15th, 2021 at 12:36 PM ^
Still thinking we might look for a grad transfer swingman (A la Chaundee) to spell Houstan at SF and play some at SG if none of the young guys pop. Once Franz declares of course.
April 15th, 2021 at 12:45 PM ^
Eli averaged 30 minutes a game this year and played over 30 in every important game.
There is no way he only plays 28 minutes with the possible weaknesses as a result of youth.
I see it breaking down more into:
Collins 24 / Brooks 8 / Zeb 8
Brooks 24 / Bufkin 12 / Zeb 4
Houstan 22 / Barnes 12 / Bufkin 6
Johns 26 / Diabate 8 / Williams 6
Dickinson 28 / Diabate 12
That comes out to:
Brooks 32
Dickinson 28
Johns 26
Collins 24
Houstan 22
Diabate 20
Bufkin 18
Barnes 12
Zeb 12
Williams 6
Of course there is a lot up in the air with this team. Collins could absolutely deserve every minute available at the PG position. Or he could be a Freshman PG and Eli is needed more at the point requiring more minutes from Bufkin at the SG. Diabate could demand 25 minutes a game squeezing Johns' role. But we know what Brandon Johns is and you have to think he gets starter level minutes until proven otherwise. Let's just hope that the minute crunch is a result of players outperforming their predicted roles and not because of glaring weaknesses.
This looks really good. But I think Zeb might get less, and Houstan will get more. He is so college ready, Top 10 recruit, and his outside shooting will help everyone on the floor. He will create so much space. He will be more dangerous than Stauskas or Duncan were.
Brooks 32
Dickinson 28
Johns 28
Houston 28
Diabate 24
Collins 16.
Those six are almost for sure as 4 players would now be batting for the last 2 rotation spots.
Zeb , T Williams , Bufkin and Barnes. The early season games is where that would be settled.
I will be very surprised if Zeb Jackson doesn't start at the 1 or the 2, especially early in the season. Collins or Bufkin may overtake him before the end of the year, but Zeb will start for a while. I can see games where Collins or Bufkin come in and are hot and end up with more minutes than Zeb.
Zeb has already shown he can come in and play ok at both ends of the floor in real games. I think with consistent minutes he's going to surprise people. Collins and Bufkin clearly can both play, and may overtake Zeb as the season goes similar to Dickinson if they are as good as expected.
Terrance williams played well down the stretch . Offensive rebounding machine and great passer . He could be a huge wildcard if he continues to improve
I hope we're not playing ten guys with them getting 25 minutes one night and 10 the next, sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Juwan will not have a true 10 man rotation-8 at the most. People who think this is a simple plug-and-play sport have no concept of what is in play here. The coaching staff does have their work cut out for themselves in managing this roster. I do know that the best way to ensure having an unhappy roster is to play people just to keep them happy...and lose-which is what will happen.
I will be shocked if Williams is not in the rotation. He looks to be the next "glue guy"...not flashy but knows how to play the game.
Chances are good that there will be a portal addition.
And I guarantee there will be surprises with regard to getting both more and less minutes.
I agree...because I believe Juwan can negotiate this territory better than any of his peers. But still, it is what it is...good players are going to have to sit and wait their turn-take advantage of every on court opportunity.
This thread has me contemplating some things. As a player and coach my experience has me firmly convinced of the (high) value of a short rotation. However, I am wondering about developing a two team, 6-7 player strategy with several overlapping players. Per half, the first team plays 10 minutes, are relieved by the second team for 5 and then the first team finishes out the half. You see the NBA doing something similar to this at times where the top players just sit for a spell. This would foster the cohesion required for good play, offer good on-court development opportunities for the younger and present second level players and give the top group appropriate rest breaks to finish out each half. Again, Juwan and staff could pull this off.
PG: Carr 30 Collins 10
SG: Brooks 20 Bufkin 20
C: Dickinson 30
Not sure on the rest yet.
The end of that bench wont have that many minutes though, which says something because they are quite good. Of these players, would would you give less minutes to?
I'm guessing Zeb and Bufkin b/c of his size/build, but I just watched that pickup basketball video and he looked like Kobe Bryant to me, so what do I know?
Bufkin 20
Johns 20
Collins 15
Zeb 15
Williams 14
Barnes 12
There will be a lot of parity among the top 10-11 players. Now that all the seniors have had their meetings with the coaching staff, I’m guessing the underclassmen are up next. Expecting Franz’s announcement tomorrow or early next week. Outside of Dickinson, would not be surprised if we see a transfer or two over the next two weeks.
3 guards rotate at 1-2: Eli, Zeb, and either Transfer, Collins, or Bufkin. Whoever wins that 3 way battle.
3 bigs rotate: Hunter, Johns, Diabate
then Houstan starts at the 3 and Williams also gets minutes.
8 man rotation. Plus one guy in a zeb type role who comes in half the games for 5 minutes a piece. Possibly Barnes or the 2nd place in the 3 way guard battle.
April 15th, 2021 at 10:34 PM ^
PG Collins and SG Brooks. Collins has it.
I’ve disagreed with TK about his minutes distribution. I will give TK some credit for at least putting some thought into this post, unlike the half-assed thing Brian just put on the front page.
”Let’s talk” with comments turned off sums up Brian’s level of interaction with his customers perfectly.